Global Change in Mountain Regions: What Does It Mean and Why Should You Care? Greg Greenwood Executive Director, Mountain Research Initiative University of Bern, Switzerland Mountain research initiative Suzhou, China, 26 May 2011
Dec 16, 2014
Global Change in Mountain Regions: What Does It Mean and Why Should You Care?
Greg Greenwood Executive Director,
Mountain Research InitiativeUniversity of Bern, Switzerland
Mountainresearch initiative
Suzhou, China, 26 May 2011
OUTLINE
• Swiss commitment to mountain and climate research
• Why are mountains important? • How are mountains different?• How will climate change affect
mountains?• Interdisciplinary earth system
science in mountains
Mountain Research Initiative• Focused on Global
Change (climate, land use, population movement, economic development)
• Supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation as expression of Swiss foreign and scientific policy
• http://mri.scnatweb.ch
Switzerland supports other international global change projects: Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment (GMBA) and Past Global Changes (PAGES)
Switzerland also hosts and supports Working Group 1 (Physical Science Basis) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The University of Bernis renown for mountainand climate research
WHY ARE MOUNTAINS IMPORTANT?
• Significant planetary feature• Water: supply, power, hazard• Protection from hazards• Natural resources: forests, pasture • Carbon sequestration• Biodiversity• Tourism and recreation
Global significance of mountain regionsQuantitative considerations
• 22% of the terrestrial land area are mountains
• 12% of the global human population live in mountain regions
• 50% of the human population depend on freshwater resources from mountains
(UNEP-WCMC)
(FAO 2003)
China is the largest country that is more than 50% mountainous
Water (3x) Protection Resource extraction
Global significance of mountain regionsQualitative considerations: Ecosystem goods & services (1/2)
NA:957 MM/Y(640 MM/Y)
SA:1345 MM/Y(1784 MM/Y)
EA:746 MM/Y(552 MM/Y)
AF:887 MM/Y(689 MM/Y)
DATA FROM ADAM AND LETTENMAIER (2003) AND ADAM ET AL., (2005),GLOBAL AVERAGE: EXCLUDING ANTARCTICACOMPLEX TERRAIN: 887 MM/Y;(“FLAT” TERRAIN: 768 MM/Y)(Slide from Rick Lawford, GEWEX)
More precip over complex terrain (except in SA)
Mountains are “Water Towers”
Landslides pose a threat..Zhouqu, 2010
Tourism BiodiversityCarbon storage
Global significance of mountain regionsQualitative considerations: Ecosystem goods & services (2/2)
Mountains are centers of biodiversity
Mountains are centers of tourism
HOW ARE MOUNTAINS DIFFERENT?
• Mountains stick up => habitat diversity and juxtaposition
• Stuff falls/flows down => geomorphology, hydrology => benefits and hazards
• Mountains affect circulation => prediction under future climates
(slide from Andreas Hemp, University of Bayreuth)
Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...
Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...
Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...
Gravity makes mountains dynamic: water, rock, fire...
Some Key CC Impacts in Mountains
• Cryospheric changes: glacial retreat, higher snowline, (melting permafrost)
• Amplitude and timing of water flow (T, T+P)
• Habitat and species movement• Disturbance regimes
20th century warming is more important in the Alps
Rebetez & Reinhard In press
+ 0.57 °C / decade
Te
mp
era
ture
ano
mal
y [°
C]
(slide from Pascal Vittoz and Antoine Guisan, UniL)
Climate scenario for Central Alps
0
50
100
150
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Current climate(1960-2000)
Future climate(2070-2100)
Temperature (°C) Precipitation (mm)
Month MonthFuture climate downscaled based on simulations withregional climate model (CHRM56 A2, Schär et al. 2004)
(slide from Harald Bugmann, ETHZ)
Consequences for floods:the buffering effects of snow
Runoff
Floodlevel
(slide from Martin Beniston, University of Geneva)
-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 31
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Possible shifts in snow duration for a projected climatic change in the Alps
255075100125150175200225250275300325350
Snowpackduration[days]
2081-2090
2091-21002071-2080
Säntis:Future climate
Arosa:Current climate
Arosa:Future climate
20
71
-20
80
20
81
-20
90
20
91
-21
00
Mean winter temperatures [°C]
Me
an
win
ter
pre
cipi
tatio
n [m
m/d
ay]
Säntis:Current climate
Ben
iston et al, 2003: T
heoretical and A
pplied Clim
atology
(slide from Martin Beniston, University of Geneva)
L. perenne, +5.8°C by 2100, dispersion: 40 m/yr
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2040
2045
2035
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
Colonized surface per 5 years
2050
2055
2095
2100
Te
mp
era
ture
in
cre
as
e [
°K]
Transient plant dispersion with warming
Randin, Engler et al. (in prep)Milleret (2004) Master
MigClim model
(slide from Antoine Guisan, University of Lausanne)
Randin et al. (in prep.)
25 100
% sp turnover by 2100:
Species turnover and extinctions
D. octopetala E. myosuroides L. alpinus
A. elatius
V. tripteris
S. minor
All speciesdifferentin 2100
A1 scenario
win
ner
s
lose
rs
Committed to extinction?
gaining> 200%
201
Number of species(N = 287)
% area lost or gained
-100 0 220
0
130
86
(slide from Antoine Guisan, University of Lausanne)
Schumacher & Bugmann (2006), GCB
Future climate (2080)
Impacts: range shifts and disturbances
http://www.globallandproject.org/
How can we adapt theGLP approach to theThird Pole?
MRI is working with INSTITUTE OF TIBETAN PLATEAU RESEARCH/CAS
http://www.tpe.ac.cn/home
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION