Morning report Japan Intervened Japan intervened in the currency markets and sent the Japanese yen down. Japan intervened in the currency markets and sent the Japanese yen down. 31-Oct-2011 Japan sold the yen for the second time in less than three months after it hit another record high against the dollar on Monday. The move took place at 01:25 GMT tonight. The USDJPY immediately increased 3 per cent and is currently up 4.6 per cent from Friday morning. Japan said it intervened to counter speculative moves that were hurting the economy and acted at a unilateral basis. The intervention into currency markets came after weeks of warnings that its patience with the yen's strength was wearing thin, and came just days before the Group of 20 leaders' summit in Cannes, France. Japan seeks to win G20 understanding that a strong yen is one challenge too many for an economy grappling with a nuclear crisis, a USD 250bn rebuilding effort from a March earthquake and tsunami and ballooning public debt. Thursday last week Bank of Japan announced further monetary easing by boosting its government bond purchases and a stronger yen would undermine this stimuli action. The Euro has fallen versus the USD over the weekend and the EURNOK is slightly up. The NOK is currently up 3 per cent versus JPY from Friday morning. Japan sold the yen for the second time in less than three months after it hit another record high against the dollar on Monday. The move took place at 01:25 GMT tonight. The USDJPY immediately increased 3 per cent and is currently up 4.6 per cent from Friday morning. Japan said it intervened to counter speculative moves that were hurting the economy and acted at a unilateral basis. The intervention into currency markets came after weeks of warnings that its patience with the yen's strength was wearing thin, and came just days before the Group of 20 leaders' summit in Cannes, France. Japan seeks to win G20 understanding that a strong yen is one challenge too many for an economy grappling with a nuclear crisis, a USD 250bn rebuilding effort from a March earthquake and tsunami and ballooning public debt. Thursday last week Bank of Japan announced further monetary easing by boosting its government bond purchases and a stronger yen would undermine this stimuli action. The Euro has fallen versus the USD over the weekend and the EURNOK is slightly up. The NOK is currently up 3 per cent versus JPY from Friday morning. NOK & 3m NIBOR 2.90 3.00 3.10 3.20 28-Oct 10-Oct 20-Sep 7.40 7.60 7.80 8.00 3m ra. EURNOK In the US personal consumption increased 0.6 per cent on a monthly basis. This was close to expectations. Incomes however increased only by 0.1 per cent, less than expected, and the result was a decline in the saving ratio from 4.1 per cent in August to 3.6 per cent in September. In Sweden September retail sales fell 0.2 per cent from the previous month. This was the third decline in a row. Also consumer confidence fell in October, suggesting further decline in the retail sales. The consumer confidence index has fallen as much as two standard deviations from before summer. In the US personal consumption increased 0.6 per cent on a monthly basis. This was close to expectations. Incomes however increased only by 0.1 per cent, less than expected, and the result was a decline in the saving ratio from 4.1 per cent in August to 3.6 per cent in September. In Sweden September retail sales fell 0.2 per cent from the previous month. This was the third decline in a row. Also consumer confidence fell in October, suggesting further decline in the retail sales. The consumer confidence index has fallen as much as two standard deviations from before summer. SEK & 3m STIBOR 2.45 2.50 2.55 28-Oct 10-Oct 20-Sep 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 Some Norwegian key figures were released Friday. According to NAV, the registered unemployment in Norway decreased by 200 persons (seasonally adjusted) in October. Gross unemployment (incl. persons on labour market measures) also decreased by a good 200 persons. The unadjusted unemployment fell from 2.5 percent in September to 2.4 percent in October. According to Reuters, it was expected to stay unchanged at 2.5 percent. After an increase in unemployment durin g the summer, the figures for last three months indicate that the situation is about to stabilize. Norges Banks expects the unemployment rate to drop from 2.75 per cent in 2011 to 2.5 per cent in 2012. Friday’s figures should not affect the central bank’s policy assessments significa ntly. Also on Friday Statistics Norway released its Business Tendency Survey for the third quarter. The main indicator fell from 9 in H1 to 5 in Q3. Still this is far above the level reached in 2009. According to the business tendency survey, the Norwegian manufactu ring industry experienced steady growth in total output and a higher level of employment in the third quarter of 2011. A further increase in new orders from domestic markets explains these results. However, there was a modest rise in the number of managers who point to poor demand and fierce competition as factors that limit production. Domestic prices continued to improve, while export prices fell. The size of new orders from export markets was more or less the same as recorded in the previous survey. Some Norwegian key figures were released Friday. According to NAV, the registered unemployment in Norway decreased by 200 persons (seasonally adjusted) in October. Gross unemployment (incl. persons on labour market measures) also decreased by a good 200 persons. The unadjusted unemployment fell from 2.5 percent in September to 2.4 percent in October. According to Reuters, it was expected to stay unchanged at 2.5 percent. After an increase in unemployment durin g the summer, the figures for last three months indicate that the situation is about to stabilize. Norges Banks expects the unemployment rate to drop from 2.75 per cent in 2011 to 2.5 per cent in 2012. Friday’s figures should not affect the central bank’s policy assessments significa ntly. Also on Friday Statistics Norway released its Business Tendency Survey for the third quarter. The main indicator fell from 9 in H1 to 5 in Q3. Still this is far above the level reached in 2009. According to the business tendency survey, the Norwegian manufactu ring industry experienced steady growth in total output and a higher level of employment in the third quarter of 2011. A further increase in new orders from domestic markets explains these results. However, there was a modest rise in the number of managers who point to poor demand and fierce competition as factors that limit production. Domestic prices continued to improve, while export prices fell. The size of new orders from export markets was more or less the same as recorded in the previous survey. 3m ra. EURSEK Headquarters +47 03000 0021 Oslo Stranden 21 Offices Abroad New York +1 212 681 3800 London +44 207 6211111 Shanghai +86 21 6132 2888 Singapore +65 6220 6144 Stockholm +46 8 4734850 Sales Oslo (+47) Equity 22 94 89 40 Fixed Income 22 01 78 20 FX/IR 22 01 76 50 Regional sales (+47) Bergen 55 21 95 80 Bodø 75 55 87 60 Fredrikstad 69 39 41 50 Hamar 61 05 14 69 Haugesund 52 72 09 06 Lillehammer 61 27 32 27 Kristiansand 38 07 28 62 Oslo 22 01 76 50 Stavanger 51 84 04 30 Tromsø 77 62 96 80 Trondheim 73 58 74 89 Tønsberg 33 37 13 00 Ålesund 73 84 60 09 Research Regional Sales (+47) Eirik Larsen 22 01 76 55 Research FX/IR (+47) Øystein Dørum 22 01 76 56 Kjersti Haugland 22 01 78 03 Ole André Kjennerud 22 01 78 24 Knut A. Magnussen 22 01 76 63 Maren Romstad 22 01 76 64 Camilla Viland 22 01 77 41 Kyrre Aamdal 22 01 76 67 Credit Research (+47) Ole Einar Stokstad 22 01 78 37 Mikael L. Gjerding 22 01 77 62 Åse Haagensen 22 01 76 93 Rolv Kristian Heitmann 22 01 76 77 Thomas Larsen 22 01 77 36 Knut Olav Rønningen 22 01 78 15 A monthly consumer confidence indicator showed a substantial decline in October. The main index fell from 8.4 to -1.9. This is the lowest level since March 2009. Both the indicators for personal finances and for the economy fell. A majority expected increased unemployment. The figures are not seasonal adjusted, and have previously declined without a corresponding development in personal consumption. Today Statistics Norw ay releases retail sales figures for September. We expect a 0.2 per cent decline in the seasonal adjusted volume figure from August to September. According to Bloomberg the consensus forecast is for a 0.2 per cent rise. Retail sales picked up in August after weak July figures. For September shopping centers have reported increased sales, but this may be due to price increased. A monthly consumer confidence indicator showed a substantial decline in October. The main index fell from 8.4 to -1.9. This is the lowest level since March 2009. Both the indicators for personal finances and for the economy fell. A majority expected increased unemployment. The figures are not seasonal adjusted, and have previously declined without a corresponding development in personal consumption. Today Statistics Norw ay releases retail sales figures for September. We expect a 0.2 per cent decline in the seasonal adjusted volume figure from August to September. According to Bloomberg the consensus forecast is for a 0.2 per cent rise. Retail sales picked up in August after weak July figures. For September shopping centers have reported increased sales, but this may be due to price increased. [email protected] [email protected] Yesterday's key economic events (GMT) Yesterday's key economic events (GMT) As of Unit Prior Poll Actual 08:00 Norway Gross unemployment Oct 1000 85.7 85.2 08:00 Norway Unemployment rate Oct % 2.5 2.4 12:30 US Private consumption Sep m/m % 0.2 0.5 0.6 Today’s key economic events (GMT) As of Unit Prior Poll DnB NOR 08:00 Norway Norges Banks FX purchases Nov Mill. 550 600 09:00 Norway Retail sales Sep % 1.7 0.2 -0.2 10:00 EMU CPI, flash Oct y/y % 3.0 13:45 USA Chicago PMI okt index 60.4 59.2
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Morning report
Japan Intervened
Japan intervened in the currency markets and sent the Japanese yen down.Japan intervened in the currency markets and sent the Japanese yen down.31-Oct-2011
Japan sold the yen for the second time in less than three months after it hit another record highagainst the dollar on Monday. The move took place at 01:25 GMT tonight. The USDJPY immediately increased 3 per cent and is currently up 4.6 per cent from Friday morning. Japan saidit intervened to counter speculative moves that were hurting the economy and acted at a unilateralbasis. The intervention into currency markets came after weeks of warnings that its patience withthe yen's strength was wearing thin, and came just days before the Group of 20 leaders' summit inCannes, France. Japan seeks to win G20 understanding that a strong yen is one challenge toomany for an economy grappling with a nuclear crisis, a USD 250bn rebuilding effort from a Marchearthquake and tsunami and ballooning public debt. Thursday last week Bank of Japan announcedfurther monetary easing by boosting its government bond purchases and a stronger yen wouldundermine this stimuli action. The Euro has fallen versus the USD over the weekend and theEURNOK is slightly up. The NOK is currently up 3 per cent versus JPY from Friday morning.
Japan sold the yen for the second time in less than three months after it hit another record highagainst the dollar on Monday. The move took place at 01:25 GMT tonight. The USDJPY immediately increased 3 per cent and is currently up 4.6 per cent from Friday morning. Japan saidit intervened to counter speculative moves that were hurting the economy and acted at a unilateralbasis. The intervention into currency markets came after weeks of warnings that its patience withthe yen's strength was wearing thin, and came just days before the Group of 20 leaders' summit inCannes, France. Japan seeks to win G20 understanding that a strong yen is one challenge toomany for an economy grappling with a nuclear crisis, a USD 250bn rebuilding effort from a Marchearthquake and tsunami and ballooning public debt. Thursday last week Bank of Japan announcedfurther monetary easing by boosting its government bond purchases and a stronger yen wouldundermine this stimuli action. The Euro has fallen versus the USD over the weekend and theEURNOK is slightly up. The NOK is currently up 3 per cent versus JPY from Friday morning.
NOK & 3m NIBOR
2.90
3.00
3.10
3.20
28-Oct10-Oct20-Sep
7.40
7.60
7.80
8.00
3m ra. EURNOK
In the US personal consumption increased 0.6 per cent on a monthly basis. This was close toexpectations. Incomes however increased only by 0.1 per cent, less than expected, and the resultwas a decline in the saving ratio from 4.1 per cent in August to 3.6 per cent in September. InSweden September retail sales fell 0.2 per cent from the previous month. This was the thirddecline in a row. Also consumer confidence fell in October, suggesting further decline in the retailsales. The consumer confidence index has fallen as much as two standard deviations from beforesummer.
In the US personal consumption increased 0.6 per cent on a monthly basis. This was close toexpectations. Incomes however increased only by 0.1 per cent, less than expected, and the resultwas a decline in the saving ratio from 4.1 per cent in August to 3.6 per cent in September. InSweden September retail sales fell 0.2 per cent from the previous month. This was the thirddecline in a row. Also consumer confidence fell in October, suggesting further decline in the retailsales. The consumer confidence index has fallen as much as two standard deviations from beforesummer.
SEK & 3m STIBOR
2.45
2.50
2.55
28-Oct10-Oct20-Sep
8.9
9.0
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
Some Norw egian key figures were released Friday. According to NAV, the registeredunemployment in Norway decreased by 200 persons (seasonally adjusted) in October. Grossunemployment (incl. persons on labour market measures) also decreased by a good 200 persons.The unadjusted unemployment fell from 2.5 percent in September to 2.4 percent in October.
According to Reuters, it was expected to stay unchanged at 2.5 percent. After an increase inunemployment during the summer, the figures for last three months indicate that the situation isabout to stabilize. Norges Banks expects the unemployment rate to drop from 2.75 per cent in2011 to 2.5 per cent in 2012. Friday’s figures should not affect the central bank’s policyassessments significantly. Also on Friday Statistics Norway released its Business TendencySurvey for the third quarter. The main indicator fell from 9 in H1 to 5 in Q3. Still this is far abovethe level reached in 2009. According to the business tendency survey, the Norwegianmanufacturing industry experienced steady growth in total output and a higher level of employment in the third quarter of 2011. A further increase in new orders from domestic marketsexplains these results. However, there was a modest rise in the number of managers who point topoor demand and fierce competition as factors that limit production. Domestic prices continued toimprove, while export prices fell. The size of new orders from export markets was more or less thesame as recorded in the previous survey.
Some Norw egian key figures were released Friday. According to NAV, the registeredunemployment in Norway decreased by 200 persons (seasonally adjusted) in October. Grossunemployment (incl. persons on labour market measures) also decreased by a good 200 persons.The unadjusted unemployment fell from 2.5 percent in September to 2.4 percent in October.
According to Reuters, it was expected to stay unchanged at 2.5 percent. After an increase inunemployment during the summer, the figures for last three months indicate that the situation isabout to stabilize. Norges Banks expects the unemployment rate to drop from 2.75 per cent in2011 to 2.5 per cent in 2012. Friday’s figures should not affect the central bank’s policyassessments significantly. Also on Friday Statistics Norway released its Business TendencySurvey for the third quarter. The main indicator fell from 9 in H1 to 5 in Q3. Still this is far abovethe level reached in 2009. According to the business tendency survey, the Norwegianmanufacturing industry experienced steady growth in total output and a higher level of employment in the third quarter of 2011. A further increase in new orders from domestic marketsexplains these results. However, there was a modest rise in the number of managers who point topoor demand and fierce competition as factors that limit production. Domestic prices continued toimprove, while export prices fell. The size of new orders from export markets was more or less thesame as recorded in the previous survey.
3m ra. EURSEK
eadquarters +47 03000021 Oslotranden 21
ffices Abroadew York +1 212 681 3800ondon +44 207 6211111hanghai +86 21 6132 2888ingapore +65 6220 6144tockholm +46 8 4734850
ales Oslo (+47) quity 22 94 89 40xed Income 22 01 78 20X/IR 22 01 76 50
egional sales (+47)ergen 55 21 95 80 odø 75 55 87 60redrikstad 69 39 41 50
amar 61 05 14 69augesund 52 72 09 06llehammer 61 27 32 27ristiansand 38 07 28 62slo 22 01 76 50 tavanger 51 84 04 30romsø 77 62 96 80rondheim 73 58 74 89ønsberg 33 37 13 00lesund 73 84 60 09
esearch Regional Sales (+47)rik Larsen 22 01 76 55
esearch FX/IR (+47)ystein Dørum 22 01 76 56jersti Haugland 22 01 78 03le André Kjennerud 22 01 78 24nut A. Magnussen 22 01 76 63aren Romstad 22 01 76 64amilla Viland 22 01 77 41yrre Aamdal 22 01 76 67
redit Research (+47)
le Einar Stokstad 22 01 78 37ikael L. Gjerding 22 01 77 62se Haagensen 22 01 76 93olv Kristian Heitmann 22 01 76 77homas Larsen 22 01 77 36nut Olav Rønningen 22 01 78 15
A monthly consumer confidence indicator showed a substantial decline in October. The main
index fell from 8.4 to -1.9. This is the lowest level since March 2009. Both the indicators forpersonal finances and for the economy fell. A majority expected increased unemployment. Thefigures are not seasonal adjusted, and have previously declined without a correspondingdevelopment in personal consumption. Today Statistics Norw ay releases retail sales figuresfor September. We expect a 0.2 per cent decline in the seasonal adjusted volume figure fromAugust to September. According to Bloomberg the consensus forecast is for a 0.2 per cent rise.Retail sales picked up in August after weak July figures. For September shopping centers havereported increased sales, but this may be due to price increased.
A monthly consumer confidence indicator showed a substantial decline in October. The main
index fell from 8.4 to -1.9. This is the lowest level since March 2009. Both the indicators forpersonal finances and for the economy fell. A majority expected increased unemployment. Thefigures are not seasonal adjusted, and have previously declined without a correspondingdevelopment in personal consumption. Today Statistics Norw ay releases retail sales figuresfor September. We expect a 0.2 per cent decline in the seasonal adjusted volume figure fromAugust to September. According to Bloomberg the consensus forecast is for a 0.2 per cent rise.Retail sales picked up in August after weak July figures. For September shopping centers havereported increased sales, but this may be due to price increased.
[email protected]@dnbnor.no
Yesterday's key economic events (GMT)Yesterday's key economic events (GMT) As of Unit Prior Poll Actual08:00 Norway Gross unemployment Oct 1000 85.7 85.208:00 Norway Unemployment rate Oct % 2.5 2.412:30 US Private consumption Sep m/m % 0.2 0.5 0.6Today’s key economic events (GMT) As of Unit Prior Poll DnB NOR08:00 Norway Norges Banks FX purchases Nov Mill. 550 600
09:00 Norway Retail sales Sep % 1.7 0.2 -0.210:00 EMU CPI, flash Oct y/y % 3.013:45 USA Chicago PMI okt index 60.4 59.2
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Morning report 31-Oct-2011 Oil spot & NOK TWI
94
96
98
100
28-Oct10-Oct20-Sep100
105
110
115
120FX Prior Last % In 1 m ...3 m ...6 m ...12 m FX USD %
USDJPY 75.85 78.70 3.8% 80 80 80 90 AUD 1.0568 -1.29%
EURUSD 1.415 1.402 -0.9% 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 CAD 0.9978 0.57%
EURGBP 0.878 0.874 -0.4% 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.82 CHF 0.8708 0.86%
EURCHF 1.221 1.221 -0.1% 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.25 CZK 17.62 0.88%
EURNOK 7.688 7.673 -0.2% 7.80 7.80 7.70 7.70 DKK 5.3091 0.93%
EURSEK 9.040 9.018 -0.2% 9.20 9.10 9.00 9.00 GBP 1.6042 -0.50%EURDKK 7.444 7.442 0.0% 7.45 7.45 7.45 7.45 HKD 7.7687 0.06%
USDNOK 5.433 5.472 0.7% 5.57 5.78 5.92 6.16 ISK 114.13 0.96%
JPYNOK 7.169 6.956 -3.0% 6.96 7.22 7.40 6.84 KWD 0.2750 0.31%
SEKNOK 0.852 0.851 -0.1% 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.86 LTL 2.4629 0.96%
GBPNOK 8.773 8.778 0.1% 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.4 LVL 0.5026 0.88%
USDSEK 6.395 6.438 0.7% 6.57 6.74 6.92 7.20 NZD 0.8140 -1.27%
JPYSEK 8.437 8.176 -3.1% 5.26 5.39 5.54 6.48 PLN 3.0947 0.92%
NOKSEK 1.178 1.177 0.0% 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.17 SGD 1.2481 0.45%
GBPSEK 10.303 10 .317 0.1% 10.45 10.58 10.71 10.98 RUB 30.1825 1.52%
SPOT RATES AND FORECASTS (Source: Reuters and DnB NOR Markets)
NOK TWI ra. $/b EUR vs GBP & CHF
0.85
0.86
0.87
0.88
0.89
28-Oct10-Oct20-Sep
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
GBP r.a CHF Prior Last Prior Last Prior Last Prior Last
1m 2.91 2.90 2.33 2.33 1.31 1.31 0.25 0.25
3m 3.13 3.13 2.53 2.54 1.52 1.53 0.43 0.43
6m 3.35 3.34 2.56 2.57 1.73 1.74 0.62 0.62
12m 3.53 3.56 2.61 2.63 1.90 1.90 0.77 0.77
3y 3.20 3.18 2.31 2.26 1.75 1.66 0.79 0.77
5y 3.51 3.49 2.49 2.45 2.11 2.04 1.40 1.37
7y 3.73 3.72 2.66 2.62 2.40 2.36 1.95 1.92
10y 3.96 3.92 2.74 2.70 2.71 2.67 2.44 2.42
Prior Last Prior Last Prior Last Prior Last
10y 112.4 108.18 1 13.435 113.44 100.446 101.01 98.265625 98.73
10y yield 2.75 2.76 2.07 2.07 2.20 2.14 2.32 2.28vs bund 0.55 0.63 -0.12 -0.06 0.13 0.15
3m nibor 10y swap 3m stibor 10y swap 3m euribor 10y swap 3m libor 10y swap
In 3m 3.15 4.25 2.50 3.00 1.50 3.00 0.45 2.75
… 6m 3.15 4.50 2.55 3.25 1.50 3.25 0.35 3.00
… 12m 3.35 4.50 2.65 3.25 1.50 3.25 0.35 3.25
US
NORWAY SWEDEN GERMANY US
SWAP AND MONEYMARKET RATES (Source: Reuters)
GOVERNMENT BONDS (Source: Reuters)
INTEREST RATE FORECASTS
NIBOR STIBOR EURIBOR USD LIBOR
NORWAY SWEDEN GERMANY
Gov. Bonds, 10y
2.00
2.20
2.402.60
2.80
3.00
28-Oct10-Oct20-Sep
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
NOK, ra. SEK JPY and DowJones
76
77
77
78
28-Oct10-Oct20-Sep
10
11
12
13
USDJPY ra.DowJones, 1000
USD and gold
1.32
1.37
1.42
1.47
28-Oct10-Oct20-Sep
1500
1600
1700
18001900
2000
FRA NOK 3m Prior chg TWI Today % Stock ex. Today %
DEC 2.97 2.96 0.01 NOK 95.98 0.23- Dow Jones 12,231.1 0.2%
MAR 2.73 2.75 -0.02 SEK 118.90 0.08 N asdaq 2,737.2 -0.1%
JUN 2.61 2.64 -0.03 EUR 108.58 0.11 FTSE100 5,702.2 -0.2%
SEP 2.60 2.64 -0.04 USD 76.00 1.21 Eurostoxx50 2,462.4 -0.6%
FRA SEK 3m Prior chg GBP 79.50 0.13 Dax 6,346.2 0.1%
DEC 2.53 2.54 -0.01 Comm. Today Last Nikkei225 8,988.4 0.0%
MAR 2.21 2.23 -0.02 Brent spot 110.6 110.6 Oslo 390.25 -1.2%
J UN 2.10 2.13 -0.03 Brent 1m 109.5 109.9 Stockholm 467.67 -0.1%
SEP 2.06 2.10 -0 .04 Spot go ld 1741.0 1741.0 Copenhagen 491.04 0.7%
EURUSD ra. Gold EURSEK & OMXS
350
400
450
500
28-Oct10-Oct20-Sep
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
OMXS ra. EURSEK
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Morning report
31-Oct-2011
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