Mid-Pacific Information and Communications Technology Conference (ICT), Cloud Computing and ICT Workforce
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The Emerging Pervasive Networked Computing Explosion and its Tremendous Pending Impact
on Society, ICT Workforce, and Technical Education
Presented by: Dr. James (“Jim”) C. Spohrer, [email protected], IBM University Programs World WideCo-created with Waqar Hasan, IBM Academic Initiatives (Western US Region)Smarter Government slides by: Mark E. Dixon, [email protected] (Mid-Pacific ICT) 2011San Francisco, January 6, 2011
This talk will review the exciting current trends and future directions in ICT (Information and Communication Technologies). The implication for society, ICT workforce, and technical education, including community college ICT educators will be explored. With an anemic economic recovery underway and globalization concerns creating uncertainty, community-minded ICT educators should take heart and continue to be motivated for several key reasons that will be presented. Every cloud has a silver lining, and in the seeds of today's problems lie the driver of tomorrow's growth. The ICT transformation that happened in the private sector is about to happen for the public sector, but in some surprising ways that will increase demand for local ICT education especially. This talk will provide a broad, high-level view of local and global changes, and what will drive the local, regional demand for ICT talent in the future. In many ways, the future for local ICT talent is exceptionally bright, but the nature of ICT talent will need to be re-defined in the process. T-shaped professionals are in demand, with both depth and breadth across both academic disciplines and societal systems, and thereby better prepared as life-long-learners ready to constantly adapt to an accelerating rate of change.
Some Highlights of the 2010 Environmental Scan Very Brief History of ICT Trends: Current & future trends Implications: For society, ICT workforce, and technical education Key Trend: ICT in public sector Challenge: More T-shaped professionals needed
Economists estimate, that all systems carry inefficiencies of up to $15 Tn, of which $4 Tn could be eliminated
Global economic value of
System-of-systems
$54 Trillion100% of WW 2008 GDP
Inefficiencies$15 Trillion28% of WW 2008 GDP
Improvement potential
$4 Trillion7% of WW 2008 GDP
How to read the chart:
For example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%).
We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems planet
Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480
System inefficiency as % of total economic value
Impr
ovem
ent
pote
ntia
l as
% o
f sy
stem
inef
ficie
ncy
Education1,360
Building & Transport Infrastructure
12,540
Healthcare4,270
Government & Safety5,210
Electricity2,940
Financial4,580
Food & Water4,890
Transportation (Goods & Passenger)
6,950
Leisure / Recreation /
Clothing7,800
Communication3,960
Analysis of inefficiencies in the planet‘s system-of-systems
Note: Size of the bubble indicate absolute value of the system in USD Billions
How to visualize skills? The Systems-Disciplines MatrixSystems that focus on flows of things Systems that governSystems that support people’s activities
Definition: A service system that can support its primary populations, independent of all external service systems, for some period of time, longer than a month if necessary, and in some cases, indefinitely
Balance independence with interdependence, without becoming overly dependent
“When we combined the impact of Harvard’s direct spending on payroll, purchasing and construction – the indirect impact of University spending – and the direct and indirect impact of off-campus spending by Harvard students – we can estimate that Harvard directly and indirectly accounted for nearly $4.8 billion in economic activity in the Boston area in fiscal year 2008, and more than 44,000 jobs.”
As an example, the Healthcare system‘s value is $4,270B. It carries an estimated inefficiency of 42%. From that level of 42% inefficiency, economists estimate that ~34% can be eliminated (= 34% x 42%).
We now have the capabilities to manage a system-of-systems
planet...
Source: IBM economists survey 2009; n= 480 (*Estimate) – Chart shows “systems”, not “industries.
System inefficiency as % of total economic value
Improvem
ent potential as %
of system inefficiency
Education1,360
Building & Transport Infrastructure
12,540
Healthcare4,270
Government & Safety5,210
Electricity2,940
Financial4,580
Food & Water4,890
Transportation (Goods & Passenger)
6,950
Leisure / Recreation / Clothing 7,800
Communication3,960
Analysis of inefficiencies in the planet‘s system-of-systems
Note: Size of the bubble indicate absolute value of the system in USD Billions
“...the Great Recession that began in 2008 was not your grandmother’s standard recession. This was not just a deep economic slowdown that we can recover from and then blithely go back to our old ways—with just a little less leverage, a little less risk, and a little more regulation. No, this Great Recession was something much more important. It was our warning heart attack.”
Recent suburban sprawl moving inland and replacing agricultural land – a disturbing trend for feeding Smarter Cities...
Note the coastal counties from San Diego to Sonoma, which follow the California Mission Trail ( El Camino Real – 'The Royal Road'). All missions were roughly a day's ride apart. Most of the counties were named for the mission in their geography.
Note further the central counties from San Francisco east to Lake Tahoe. Their formation follows the topology around major rivers coming from Sierra Nevada mountains - first for gold claims, then for water rights.
Other counties reflect desert and mountain restrictions relative to topology, natural resource usage (agriculture) and population density
Local Government is where the actual Service Delivery happens...both physically and digitally.
Approximately 3,000 Counties in the US (Source: National Association of Counties - NACO)
Approximately 20,000 Cities in the US (Source: League of Cities)
US Census Data (2000): approximately 10K cities, 4.3K towns and 3.7K villages =18,000
63 of the 273 (23%) US cities over 100K population are in California – over 16M people8 of the Top 50 cities (population) are in California58 Counties and 480 Cities in CaliforniaCity and County of San Francisco the only combined local government Essential differentiator: Counties do not have revenue generation authority...they rely on the state for general fund revenues...counties can only exercise cost containment capabilities.
“Think global, act local.” – Patrick Geddes, early 1900's
Midsized businesses represent about 65% of the global GDP and 90% of its workforce. - Harish Krishnamurthy, IBM VP GMU Midmarket
California Budget Deficit for 2010/2011 = $21 Billion
California gets $0.78 in Fed funding for every $1 it pays the Federal govt (Rank: 43 of 50)*
California Budget Surplus if at federal tax parity = $68B ($313B - $224B - $21B)
Legislature approved taking back $1.9B from local governments in 2009
Counties do not have broad revenue generating authority like cities
Over 2300 special districts (Transit, Sewage, Pests, Libraries, Harbor, Healthcare, Parks, etc.)85% single function – 293 Water Districts / 172 Fire Districts
Community Service Districts are multi-function.
Most populous state – 37 Million (2009 est)
Most ethnically diverse
8th largest economy in the world (similar to Spain or Italy)
13% of US GDP – $1.85 Trillion
World's largest human migration – the Gold Rush
Leads nation in 75 crop and livestock commodities
Significant production of 250+ agricultural commodities
Provides over 50% of the vegetables, fruits and nuts in the USA
“Real-world problems may not respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper
Dr. James (“Jim”) C. SpohrerDirector, IBM University Programs (IBM UP) [email protected]
“Instrumented, Interconnected, Intelligent – Let’s build a Smarter Planet.” – IBM“If we are going to build a smarter planet, let’s start by building smarter cities” – CityForward.org“Universities are major employers in cities and key to urban sustainability.” – Coalition of USU
“Cities learning from cities learning from cities.” – Fundacion Metropoli“The future is already here… It is just not evenly distributed.” – Gibson
“The best way to predict the future is to create it/invent it.” – Moliere/Kay“Real-world problems may not/refuse to respect discipline boundaries.” – Popper/Spohrer
“Today’s problems may come from yesterday’s solutions.” – Senge“History is a race between education and catastrophe.” – H.G. Wells
“The future is born in universities.” – Kurilov“Think global, act local.” – Geddes
40
Time
ECOLOGY
14BBig Bang
(NaturalWorld)
10KCities
(Human-MadeWorld)
Sun
writing(symbols and scribes)
Earth
written laws
bacteria(uni-cell life)
sponges(multi-cell life)
money(coins)
universities
clams (neurons)tribolites (brains)
printing press (books)steam engine200M
bees (socialdivision-of-labor)
60
transistor
Where is the “Real Science” in Service Science?In the sciences of the natural and human-made worlds…Evolving hierarchical-complexity of populations of things