IPC Analysis Partners: MOZAMBIQUE OVER 1.6 MILLION PEOPLE IN MOZAMBIQUE FACE SEVERE ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS April 2019 – February 2020 Issued on 25 July 2019 Overview Multiple and consecutive shocks have caused the current acute food insecurity situation in Mozambique. While drought and pests affected much of the country, the central area was severely hit by cyclones Desmond and Idai, and the northern area by Cyclone Kenneth as well as conflict and insecurity. As a result, major agricultural losses, destruction of infrastructure, assets and livelihoods, internal displacement and other damages were observed. It is estimated that 1,648,646 people currently (April – September 2019) face difficulties in accessing food to meet acceptable food needs. In the projection period from October 2019 to February 2020, it is expected that this number of people could increase to 1,994,538 if there are no humanitarian interventions and taking into account that this is the lean season. Current Acute Food Insecurity - April - Sept 2019 Current Acute Malnutrition - April - Sept 2019 ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY - APRIL - SEPT 2019 1.6M people need interventions to improve their diet, and rebuild and restore their assets and livelihoods Phase 5 0 People in Catastrophe Phase 4 188,669 People in Emergency Phase 3 1,169,377 People in Crisis Phase 2 1,747,834 People in Stress Phase 1 1,878,082 People minimally food insecure ESWATINI ZAMBIA ZIMBABWE TANZANIA SOUTH AFRICA MAP KEY IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification (mapped Phase represents highest severity affecting at least 20% of the population) 1 - Minimal 2 - Stressed 3 - Crisis 4 - Emergency 5 - Famine At least 25% of households meet 25-50% of caloric needs from humanitarian food assistance At least 25% of households meet over 50% of caloric needs from humanitarian food assistance MADAGASCAR Classification takes into account levels humanitarian food assistance provided Urban settlement classification MALAWI MALAWI ESWATINI ZAMBIA ZIMBABWE TANZANIA SOUTH AFRICA KEY FOR THE MAP IPC Acute Malnutrition 1 - Acceptable 2 - Alert 3 - Serious 4 - Critical 5 - Extremely critical based on MUAC Areas with inadequate evidence Areas not analysed Urban settlement classification Key Drivers Conflict and Insecurity Insecurity in Cabo Delgado continues to affect large numbers of households, forcing population displacement, while some of those living on the island who were already vulnerable, were directly affected by the cyclone. Erratic Rainfall Poor performance of the January- March rainy season in the southern part of the country (Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane) caused substantial losses in agricultural production. Tropical Cyclones Between January and May 2019, Mozambique was hit by tropical cyclones Idai, Kenneth and Desmond, displacing tens of thousands of people and destroying infrastructure and livelihoods. Continue to page 2 FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK FEWS NET METHODOLOGY APRIL 2019 OCT 2019 - FEB 2020 IPC (39 districts) 1,358,046 1,689,408 Other data (24 dictricts) 290,600 305,130 Total (63 districts) 1,648,646 1,994,538 ACUTE MALNUTRITION - APRIL 2019 - FEB 2020 Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) 6,500 Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM) 61,000 2 (current: Apr to Sep 19) 6 (projected: Oct19 to Feb 20) of districts that require an urgent increase in treatment and prevention 67,500 the number of 6-59 months children acutely malnourished IN URGENT NEED OF TREATMENT
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MOZAMBIQUE IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ......MOZAMBIQUE IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND M ALNUTRITION ANALYSIS 2 The results of the analysis using IPC protocols for 39 districts are presented
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IPC Analysis Partners:
MOZAMBIQUE OVER 1.6 MILLION PEOPLE IN MOZAMBIQUE FACE SEVERE ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY
IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS April 2019 – February 2020
Issued on 25 July 2019
Overview
Multiple and consecutive shocks have caused the current acute food insecurity situation in Mozambique. While drought and pests affected much of the country, the central area was severely hit by cyclones Desmond and Idai, and the northern area by Cyclone Kenneth as well as conflict and insecurity.
As a result, major agricultural losses, destruction of infrastructure, assets and livelihoods, internal displacement and other damages were observed. It is estimated that 1,648,646 people currently (April – September 2019) face difficulties in accessing food to meet acceptable food needs.
In the projection period from October 2019 to February 2020, it is expected that this number of people could increase to 1,994,538 if there are no humanitarian interventions and taking into account that this is the lean season.
Current Acute Food Insecurity - April - Sept 2019
Current Acute Malnutrition - April - Sept 2019
ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY - APRIL - SEPT 2019
1.6Mpeople need interventions to improve their diet, and rebuild and restore their assets and livelihoods
Phase 5 0People in Catastrophe
Phase 4 188,669People in Emergency
Phase 3 1,169,377People in Crisis
Phase 2 1,747,834People in Stress
Phase 1 1,878,082People minimally food insecure
ESWATINI
ZAMBIA
ZIMBABWE
TANZANIA
SOUTH AFRICA
MAP KEYIPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classi�cation(mapped Phase represents highest severity a�ecting at least 20% of the population)
1 - Minimal
2 - Stressed
3 - Crisis
4 - Emergency
5 - Famine
At least 25% of households meet 25-50% of caloric needs fromhumanitarian food assistance
At least 25% of households meet over 50% of caloric needs from humanitarian food assistance
MADAGASCAR
Classi�cation takes into account levels humanitarian food assistance provided
Urban settlement classi�cation
MALAWI
MALAWI
ESWATINI
ZAMBIA
ZIMBABWE
TANZANIA
SOUTH AFRICA
KEY FOR THE MAPIPC Acute Malnutrition
1 - Acceptable
2 - Alert
3 - Serious
4 - Critical
5 - Extremely critical
based on MUAC
Areas with inadequate evidence
Areas not analysed
Urban settlement classification
Key Drivers
Conflict and Insecurity Insecurity in Cabo Delgado continues to affect large numbers of households, forcing population displacement, while some of those living on the island who were already vulnerable, were directly affected by the cyclone.
Erratic RainfallPoor performance of the January-March rainy season in the southern part of the country (Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane) caused substantial losses in agricultural production.
Tropical CyclonesBetween January and May 2019, Mozambique was hit by tropical cyclones Idai, Kenneth and Desmond, displacing tens of thousands of people and destroying infrastructure and livelihoods.
Continue to page 2
FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK
FEWS NET
METHODOLOGY APRIL 2019 OCT 2019 - FEB 2020IPC (39 districts) 1,358,046 1,689,408Other data (24 dictricts) 290,600 305,130Total (63 districts) 1,648,646 1,994,538
ACUTE MALNUTRITION - APRIL 2019 - FEB 2020
Severe AcuteMalnutrition (SAM) 6,500
Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM) 61,000
2 (current: Apr to Sep 19)6 (projected: Oct19 to Feb 20)of districts that require an urgent increase in treatment and prevention
67,500the number of 6-59 months children acutely malnourished
IN URGENT NEED OF TREATMENT
MOZAMBIQUE | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND MAlNUTRITION ANAlYSIS 2
The results of the analysis using IPC protocols for 39 districts are presented below:
Of the 39 districts analysed using IPC, it is estimated that from October 2019, at least 12 districts require a combination of urgent interventions such as food assistance, agricultural inputs, infrastructure reconstruction and livelihoods.
These should be linked to medium and long-term interventions aimed at decreasing chronic vulnerability in Mozambique.
Approximately 67,500 children under five years of age in 31 districts analysed need treatment for acute malnutrition. Thus, a deterioration of the situation is expected in the coming months, especially in the projection period, if these interventions are not implemented on time.
In addition to the 39 districts analysed on the basis of the IPC, there are 24 other districts affected by the shocks. Using secondary data, an estimated number of 290,600 people in acute food insecurity was estimated. These people are included in the 1,648,646 described above.
It is projected that the food insecurity and acute malnutrition situation will prevail until the end of February 2020. It is believed that humanitarian assistance already provided in the most affected areas has prevented a more severe deterioration. In the central area, there are indications that part of the agricultural losses will be offset by the production of the second season, and prospects of reconstruction and good agricultural production in the 2019/2020 season.
It was concluded that a more severe situation could probably be observed if mitigation and reconstruction interventions had not been implemented, especially in Buzi and Nhamatanda, where food assistance was significant and reached more than 25% of the population with more than half of their food needs. In these areas, many households received agricultural inputs and benefited from good residual soil moisture.
In some places such as Ibo and Beira, access to reconstruction work funded by government, international agencies and private companies will also mitigate the severity. Other activities such as fishing, casual labor and sale of animals contribute to reducing the impact of food insecurity.
Current Acute Food Insecurity - April - Sept 2019
Map Symbols
Urban settlement classification
1 - Minimal
2 - Stressed
3 - Crisis
4 - Emergency
5 - Famine
Areas with inadequate evidence
Areas not analysed
> 25% of households meet 25-50%of caloric needs through assistance
> 25% of households meet > 50% of caloric needs through assistance
AcceptableMediumHigh
Evidence Level
***
***
Classi�cation takes into account levelshumanitarian food assistance provided
Key for the Map IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification
MOZAMBIQUE | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND MAlNUTRITION ANAlYSIS 3
Projected Acute Food Insecurity - October 2019- February 2020
MALAWI
ESWATINI
ZAMBIA
ZIMBABWE
MAP KEYIPC Acute Food Insecurity
(mapped Phase represents
at least 20% of the population)
1 - Minimal
2 - Stressed
3 - Crisis
4 - Emergency
5 - Famine
MAPUTO
TANZANIAPalma
**
MADAGASCAR
Acceptable
Medium
High
Evidence Level
***
***Urban settlement classification
KEY DRIVERSThe food insecurity was caused by multiple shocks. In the same year, Mozambique suffered from a lack of rainfall, ex-treme rains, cyclones, floods, pests, and insecurity.
• Poor performance of the rainy season between January and March in the southern part of the country(Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane) caused substantial losses in agricultural production.
• Cyclone Idai, Kenneth and Desmond affected the center and north of the country. The central area (Sofala,Zambezia, Manica and Tete), and northern Inhambane (Govuro), were severely affected by Cyclone Idai,characterized by winds and heavy rains and floods, having caused enormous damage in coastal districtsincluding destruction of property, roads, public infrastructure, as well as water contamination, and increased diseases and changes in lifestyles and having caused the dispersion of households and abandonment of their farms andanimals. The districts of Ibo, Quissanga and Macomia were severely affected by Cyclone Kenneth.
• Insecurity in Cabo Delgado continues to affect large numbers of households in some districts. Althoughthere is no official data, there are indications that there are large numbers of displaced people, and that someof those living on the island who were already vulnerable, were directly affected by the cyclone.
• Pests also affected crops in central Mozambique and in some districts of the provinces of Cabo Delgadoand Gaza, thereby causing agricultural losses.
MOZAMBIQUE | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND MAlNUTRITION ANAlYSIS 4
ACUTE MALNUTRITIONOverview of the Current Acute Malnutrition Situation
An estimated 67,500 children under the age of five need treatment for acute malnutrition in 31 analysed districts, of which 6,500 children for severe acute malnutrition and 61,000 for moderate acute malnutrition.
Regarding the severity of the current situation, which corresponds to the harvest and post-harvest season, valid until the end of September 2019, two districts (Ibo and Mecúfi) in Cabo Delgado are in a Serious situation (Phase 3 of the IPC Acute Malnutrition classification): seven districts are in Alert (IPC Phase 2): Nicoadala and Maganja da Costa (Zambézia), Macossa and Tambara (Manica), Dondo (Sofala), Doa (Tete) and Balama (Cabo Delgado). The remaining twenty-two districts are classified as Acceptable (IPC Phase 1).
Food consumption in children (frequency and quality of diet), high prevalence of diseases, constant depletion of stocks of supplements at the health facility level, consumption of non-potable water and poor sanitation of the environment are the main contributory factors for acute malnutrition identified in these districts.
In the districts affected by Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, the current situation does not necessarily reflect (yet) the impact on acute malnutrition, because the surveys were conducted before the cyclone (Cabo Delgado) and immediately after the cyclone (Sofala). Therefore, a potential deterioration of the situation is expected in the coming months if no intervention is implemented.
Current Acute Malnutrition - April - Sept 2019
Key for the Map IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase Classification
Map Symbols
Urban settlement classification
1 - Acceptable
2 - Alert
3 - Serious
4 - Critical
5 - Extremely critical
Areas with inadequate evidence
Phase classification based on MUAC
Areas not analysed
AcceptableMediumHigh
Evidence Level
***
***
MOZAMBIQUE | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND MAlNUTRITION ANAlYSIS 5
Overview of the Projected Acute Malnutrition Situation
The projection period - October 2019 to February 2020 - corresponds to the lean season, which is also characterized by an increase in the number of cases of malaria and diarrhoea, therefore, a deterioration of the acute malnutrition situation is expected in almost all districts, especially the districts affected by cyclones and floods. Therefore, four other districts are likely to be in a Serious situation (Phase 3 of the IPC Acute Malnutrition classification): Nicoadala and Maganja da Costa (Zambézia), Balama (Cabo Delgado) and Doa (Tete). The districts of Ibo and Mecúfi (Cabo Delgado), both previously classified in IPC Phase 2, are projected to deteriorate in terms of acute malnutrition without, however, slipping into a more severe phase.
The deterioration of the situation is also expected in eight other districts: Beira, Búzi, Caia and Nhamatanda (Sofala), Sussundenga (Manica), Namacurra (Zambézia), Meluco (Cabo Delgado) and Mutarara (Tete), which are likely to slip into an Alert situation (IPC Phase 2).
Given that the projection period is characterized by food scarcity that will affect access to food in almost all districts (IPC Phase 3 of the Acute Food Insecurity scale) and the occurrence of heavy rains that may exacerbate epidemiological aspects, it is expected that infectious diseases will increase. If preventive actions such as nutrition education to improve infant and young child feeding are not implemented, if supplements are not available in the most affected districts and community interventions (integrated mobile brigades) are not improved, an increase in cases of acute malnutrition is expected in some districts, yet without any change of phase.
Projected Acute Malnutrition - October 2019 - February 2020
Map Symbols
Urban settlement classification
1 - Acceptable
2 - Alert
3 - Serious
4 - Critical
5 - Extremely critical
Areas with inadequate evidence
Phase classification based on MUAC
Areas not analysed
AcceptableMediumHigh
Evidence Level
***
***
Key for the Map IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase Classification
MOZAMBIQUE | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND MAlNUTRITION ANAlYSIS 6
In view of the severity of the situation of acute malnutrition and its contributing factors, immediate action is required for districts in IPC Phase 3 and 2 for the period April to September 2019. The following priority response objectives are suggested:
Short-term:
• Nutrition education and screening of all children aged 6 to 59 months, for early identification of cases;
• Identify and treat acute malnutrition cases in communities in the affected districts at the level of health facilities andcommunities (through the APES, mobile brigades); and
• Establish an efficient monitoring system to monitor the performance of the response activities in the current andprojected situations.
Medium-term:
• Strengthen activities to promote adequate dietary intake in children under 5 years of age and pregnant women; and
• Improve access to treatment of acute malnutrition according to the IPC protocols.
Situation Monitoring
In order to avoid further deterioration of the situation where it is expected, especially in districts classified in IPC Phase 2 and 3 of Acute Malnutrition, the following is suggested:
• Monitor the occurrence and trends of diseases in children, such as malaria, diarrhoea, and Acute Respiratory Infections(ARI);
• Monitor stocks of nutritional supplements at the level of affected districts;
• Monitor the coverage of vitamin A supplementation and deworming; and
• Carry out rapid assessments in the projection period to check the trend of malnutrition cases, especially in districtsclassified in IPC Phase 2 and 3.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION FOR ACUTE FOOD INSECURITYRecommendations for urgent interventions to mitigate food shortages, and to rebuild and restore assets and livelihoods include:
Urgent humanitarian assistance to the 1,648,646 people identified as having a food deficit;
It is recommended to increase this assistance to an additional 345,892 people as of October 2019.
A combination of complementary interventions is specifically recommended to minimize the effects of shocks on access to food as well as to restore assets and rebuild livelihoods. Households in IPC Phase 3 need support, such as:
• Food assistance, to fill moderate gaps in food consumption;
• Provision of agricultural inputs, especially seeds;
• Livestock restocking;
• Provision of fishing inputs;
• Pest control; and
• Continue to hold agri-livestock fairs.
• Reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure, such as access to roads, telecommunications and energy networks.
• It is also recommended that these activities are linked to medium and long-term interventions aimed at reducingchronic vulnerability.
Situation Monitoring
• Monitor the food and nutrition situation between September and October 2019 to verify projections,
• Monitor infant and young child feeding activities in communities to improve dietary practices.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION FOR ACUTE MALNUTRITION
MOZAMBIQUE | IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY AND MAlNUTRITION ANAlYSIS 7
PROCESS, METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS
What is the IPC and IPC Acute Food Insecurity?
The IPC is a set of tools and procedures to classify the severity and characteristics of acute food and nutrition crises as well as chronic food insecurity based on international standards. The IPC consists of four mutually reinforcing functions, each with a set of specific protocols (tools and procedures). The core IPC parameters include consensus building, convergence of evidence, accountability, transparency and comparability. The IPC analysis aims at informing emergency response as well as medium and long-term food security policy and programming.
For the IPC, Acute Food Insecurity is defined as any manifestation of food insecurity found in a specified area at a specific point in time of a severity that threatens lives or livelihoods, or both, regardless of the causes, context or duration. It is highly susceptible to change and can occur and manifest in a population within a short amount of time, as a result of sudden changes or shocks that negatively impact on the determinants of food insecurity.
Contact for further InformationAntonio Pacheco Chair of the Mozambique VAC/IPC Technical Working Group [email protected]
IPC Global Support Unit www.ipcinfo.org
This analysis has been conducted under the patronage of by SETSAN with the participation of MISAU, INGC, INE, DPASA’s, IDEPA and INS with technical support from UNICEF, WFP, FAO, FEWSNET, OXFAM, VSO, WORLD VISION, IPC Global Support Unit and COSACA.
Classification of food insecurity and malnutrition was conducted using the IPC protocols, which are developed and implemented worldwide by the IPC Global Partnership - Action Against Hunger, CARE, CILSS, EC-JRC , FAO, FEWSNET, Global Food Security Cluster, Global Nutrition Cluster, IGAD, Oxfam, PROGRESAN-SICA, SADC, Save the Children, UNICEF and WFP.
Process and Methodology
The analysis of acute food and nutrition insecurity was based on primary and secondary data. Primary data from 39 districts were analysed using the IPC’s protocols for Acute Food Insecurity and Acute Malnutrition, while secondary data helped in determining the number of people in food and nutrition insecurity in 24 districts not covered by data collection. Historical data on the acutely food insecure population and the number of people affected by shocks were considered for this purpose.
Primary data collection was carried out in two phases, following a regional analysis training. The first phase included the training of enumerators and evaluators from the southern and northern regions, between March 18 and 22 in Bilene, covering a total of 23 districts with greater vulnerability to acute malnutrition and affected by the scarcity of rainfall and the occurrence of various crop pests, with field work taking place between 1 and 25 April.
The second phase included the training of enumerators and evaluators from the central region between 1 and 4 May in Chimoio, covering a total of 16 districts affected mainly by Cyclone Idai and a high prevalence of acute malnutrition, with field work taking place between 8 and 28 May. The analyses were coordinated by SETSAN with the participation of MISAU, INGC, INE, DPASA’s, IDEPA and INS with technical support from UNICEF, WFP, FAO, FEWSNET, OXFAM, VSO, WORLD VISION, IPC Global Support Unit and COSACA.
The analyses were carried out by the National Technical Working Group (NTWG), which was composed of around 100 participants, including partners working in these areas, with 45 technicians carrying out the Acute Malnutrition analysis and 55 the acute food insecurity analysis. These technical experts came from the districts analysed that were affected by the different shocks and with a high prevalence of acute malnutrition. Before the analyses, the technical experts underwent training on IPC version 3. For the analyses, data was used from the Post-Shock Assessment of Food and Nutritional Insecurity of 2019, district reports, INGC post-IDAI and Kenneth situation data, 2018 annual reports of the Provincial Directorate of Health, the first quarter of 2019 report on the nutritional rehabilitation program, and the 2017 Population Census Report.
Limitations of the Analysis
• Short time allocated for the training and analysis did not make it possible for the participants, especially those who participated for the first time,to fully assimilate the material.
• A lack of information at district level;
• A lack of funds to cover all districts affected by the shocks for datacollection and also to include them during the analysis;
• A lack of access for data collection in some areas of Cabo Delgado dueto the conflict.