Moving toward Decision-Making as a Central Focus Other Core Collaborators: Lisa Dilling Linda Mearns Susi Moser (ESIG)
Jan 05, 2016
Moving toward Decision-Making as a Central Focus
Other Core Collaborators: Lisa Dilling Linda Mearns
Susi Moser (ESIG)
WCIAS Strategy
• Filling critical gaps in weather and climate impact assessment science
• Developing integrating methodology
• Moving toward decision-making as a centerpiece
• Promoting integration of assessment science activities at NCAR, nationally and internationally
Overview
• Decision-making in the WCAI
– An Evolutionary Perspective
• Moving Toward Decision-Making as the Central Focus
• DUST
• Future Directions
Evolutionary Perspective
• Intentions: – Produce science of high societal value– Make uncertainties in weather/climate
assessments more transparent to decision-makers (quantify, characterize, communicate)
– Assess the feasibility of an end-to-end characterization of uncertainty (i.e., from global climate model to decision-making)
• From providing decision support to also examining the decision process…
Weather Extremes in Aviation
Information need
Safetycontrol
Extremes statistics
California Water Resources Project
Climate & Climate Change
Physical Hydrology
Watershed Management
Integrated Decision Support
Decisions•Sykes Reservoir•FERC Relicensing•Conjunctive Use•System Operations
Socio-Economics
Decision-Makers•CALFED•State Assembly•Cal. Water Dept.•Others
EcosystemServices
Credibility
Legitimacy
Relevance
Local needs
Political and economic constraints
Weather and climate research (NCAR, NOAA, Universities)
Rules Regulations Advice Conditional $
State and Regional flood management agencies
Local floodplain administration
Federal agencies (e.g., FEMA, NFIP, NWS,
Army Corps)
Private sector consultants
Scientific & Technical Information
Front Range Flood Management
Wildfire Project
Homeowners&
Local planners
CLIMATEVARIABILITY
• drought• “fire-weather”
Informationneeds?
Codechanges
Decision Model
WILDFIRE INITIATIVE
Perception of risk and uncertainty?Information needs?
Retrofittingdecisions
Decision-Making(Assessment of needs, decision entry points,
institutional constraints,politics etc.)
Mitigation
Adaptation
Toward Decision-making as a Central Focus
For WCIAS projects where decision-making matters….
DUST – The Decision Uncertainty Screening Tool
• Purpose– Integrative link between physical sciences,
uncertainty analyses, and decision- and policy-making
– Procedure to identify where and how science can most effectively support decision-making
– Systematic approach to determining where and when uncertainty matters
DUST – A stepwise, iterative attempt at improving the science/decision-maker interaction
• Premises– Decision-maker and decision-making are central – Scientific information can be an important input into decision-
making– No assumption about best way to make decisions under
conditions of uncertainty – No preference for a “top-down” or “bottom-up” approach to
assessments
• Objectives– For all kinds of decisions – For a variety of decision-making contexts – For a range of decision-makers
– Applicable at a variety of scales
Step 1: Identify the stage in the decision process where climate science can enter
Step 2: Ensure that scientific input is useful, credible, and legitimate
(A) Science Decision-making
(B) Science Decision-makingCredibility
Legitimacy
Usefulness- Relevance
- Compatibility- Accessibility- Receptivity
Step 3: Identify the type of decision problem decision-makers face
OPTIMIZATION – EVALUATION – ROBUST ADAPTIVE PLANNING
Step 4: Identify the specific decision challenge
A three-dimensional typology of climate-sensitive decisions- Optimization/Evaluation- Near-/Long-term - One-time/Sequential
Step 5: Identify necessary uncertainty analyses
Step 6: Conduct identified uncertainty analyses
Step 7: Communicate uncertainties back to the decision-maker
• Familiarity
• Format• Link back to decision
problem• Explanation of
uncertainties
CoordinationKeep others informed of whatthey need to know, without
overburdening them with unnecessary information
InformationWho needs to know what
ConfirmationMake sure they right
people have the information they need
TimelinessAvoid confusion by delivering message/
data on time
AccuracyWrong information
may be worse than none at all
Good Communication
Expected Outcomes
• Streamlining and prioritization of uncertainty assessment
• Greater transparency and awareness
• Educational for scientists (and beginning scholars, students of applied science)
• Educational for decision-makers
• Boundary object Credibility
Legitimacy
Relevance
Using DUST to Move Forward…
• DUST: educational, screening tool, a heuristic
• Informs the interpretation of, and learning from, past projects
• Informs the development of future research projects
Future Directions• NCAR-RISA Collaboration
– Workshop to establish linkages in FY05
• Communication of Uncertainty to Decision-Makers– Collaboration with DMUU at RAND Corp.
• Feasibility Limits of Adaptation Strategies to Sea-Level rise– Project development during early FY05– Comparative case study approach – Multi-disciplinary collaboration
• Decision-making at the Climate–Health Interface– Heat waves– Air quality management
• Scales of decision-making- Carbon flux- Water resource management
• Societal use of weather information