Mortgage Lending and Financial Stability in Asia

8/20/2019 Mortgage Lending and Financial Stability in Asia

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DJLA ]ercaom Pdpfr Yfrafs

Bertmdmf Kfojaom doj Gaodoiadk

Ytdlakat y ao Dsad

Pftfr H. Bermdo dojQdo Xndom

Oe. 6:9 Dumust


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Znf ]ercaom Pdpfr sfrafs as d ieotaoudtaeo eg tnf gerbfrky odbfj Jasiussaeo Pdpfr sfrafs3tnf oublfraom eg tnf pdpfrs ieotaoufj watneut aotfrruptaeo er indomf. DJLA‑s wercaompdpfrs rfgkfit aoatadk ajfds eo d tepai doj drf pestfj eokaof ger jasiussaeo. DJLA foieurdmfsrfdjfrs te pest tnfar iebbfots eo tnf bdao pdmf ger fdin wercaom pdpfr (mavfo ao tnfiatdtaeo lfkew). Yebf wercaom pdpfrs bdy jfvfkep aote etnfr gerbs eg pulkaidtaeo.

Yummfstfj iatdtaeo8

Bermdo, P. H., doj Q. Xndom. G

9-, Hdpdo

Zfk8 +>4-9-9619-6600Gdx8 +>4-9-9619-66=4V\K8 www.djla.ermF-bdak8 [email protected]

©


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DJLA ]ercaom Pdpfr 6:9 Bermdo doj Xndom

Dlstrdit

]f fstabdtfj tnf fggfit eg tnf sndrf eg bertmdmf kfojaom ly aojavajudk ldocs (temftnfr watnsebf ieotrek vdradlkfs) eo twe bfdsurfs eg gaodoiadk stdlakaty‚tnf ldoc X-sierf doj tnfoeopfrgerbaom kedo rdtae‚ger d sdbpkf eg


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Ieotfots

4. Aotrejuitaeo ................................................................................................................ 9


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4. AOZ\EJVIZAEO

Jebfstai ldocaom irasfs egtfo eramaodtf ao tnf rfdk fstdtf sfiter, ds snewo, dbeometnfrs, ly \faondrt doj \emegg (


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:


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9. KAZF\DZV\F \FWAF]

\fsfdrin eo tnf abpdits eg neusaom praifs doj bertmdmf kfojaom mrewtn eo gaodoiadkstdlakaty nds lffo fxtfosavf. \faondrt doj \emegg (


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bertmdmf kedo mrewtn, rfdk neusaom praif, doj rfdk aotfrfst rdtf. Ao tnf keom-tfrbieaotfmrdtaeo fqudtaeo, tnf iefggaiafot eg bertmdmf kedos as pesatavf, lut oet samoagaidot.Ao tnf snert-ruo frrer-ierrfitaeo bejfk, tnf iefggaiafot ger bertmdmf kedo mrewtn asofmdtavf doj samoagaidot, abpkyaom tndt d snert-tfrb aoirfdsf ao bertmdmf kedo mrewtn aspesatavf ger gaodoiadk stdlakaty.

Ds bfotaeofj fdrkafr, tnf rasc indrditfrastais eg neusaom kedos bdy lf sabakdr te tnesfeg YBFs (dt kfdst ao oeoirasas pfraejs), lfidusf letn drf sbdkk-sidkf. Ao d stujy egInakfdo ldocs, Djdsbf, Bdhoeoa, doj Vralf (


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OPK rdtae abpkafs petfotadkky kewfr gaodoiadk stdlakaty. Ldoc OPKs dkse iebf greb tnfLdocsiepf jdtdldsf.

Ldoc-kfvfk ieotrek vdradlkfs‚rdtae eg kaquaj dssfts te tnf tetdk jfpesats doj snert-tfrbguojaom (kaq), tetdk dssfts (kmdst), rdtae eg jflt te tetdk dssfts (kd), doj tnf rdtae eg

epfrdtaom iest te tetdk aoiebf (ia)‚drf tdcfo greb tnf Ldocsiepf jdtdldsf. Aoiebfjavfrsaty (aoj) as idkiukdtfj ds 4 baous tnf dlsekutf vdkuf eg tnf rdtae eg aotfrfst aoiebfte tetdk epfrdtaom aoiebf. Aotfrfst aoiebf doj tetdk epfrdtaom aoiebf drf dkse greb tnfLdocsiepf jdtdldsf. Fieoeby-kfvfk ieotrek vdradlkfs‚rfdk MJP mrewtn rdtf doj tnfIPA‚drf greb tnf ]erkj Ldoc‑s ]erkj Jfvfkepbfot Aojaidters jdtdldsf..99 4=.9< 0.61 4=1.>> 0.6: =.:=ia 4,677 60.49


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>

Znf oukk nypetnfsfs ger tnf Gasnfr-typf tfsts drf tndt tnf tabf sfrafs jdtd gekkew d uoatreet preifss. Dkk tnf tfsts ger eur bdao vdradlkfs streomky rfhfit tnf oukk nypetnfsas tndttnfrf drf uoat reets ao tnfsf jdtd.

:.< Bertmdmf Kfojaom \dtae ds d Bfdsurf eg GaodoiadkAoikusaeo doj Gaodoiadk Jfvfkepbfot

Znas sulsfitaeo prevajfs sebf sabpkf iebpdraseos eg tnf rfkdtaeosnap lftwffo tnfbertmdmf kedo rdtae, pfr idpatd MJP, doj tnf twe bfdsurfs eg gaodoiadk stdlakaty‚tnfX-sierf doj tnf OPK rdtae‚jfsiralfj ao tnf prfvaeus sulsfitaeo. Znf garst peaot as tnd t

tnf bertmdmf kedo rdtae aoirfdsfs samoagaidotky ao kaof watn pfr idpatd MJP (Gamurf 4).9

Znas as ieosastfot watn tnf lfndvaer eg etnfr bfdsurfs eg gaodoiadk jfvfkepbfot dojgaodoiadk aoikusaeo, doj summfsts tndt tnf sndrf eg bertmdmf kfojaom ido lf ieosajfrfjdo aojaidter eg letn gaodoiadk jfvfkepbfot doj gaodoiadk aoikusaeo. Ze lf surf, tnf rasaombertmdmf kedo rdtae ieukj sabpky rfgkfit d namnfr kedo vdkuf pfr aojavajudk watneut doyaoirfdsf ao tnf oublfr eg aojavajudks rfifavaom kedos. Newfvfr, mavfo tndt tnf vdkuf eg

oeo-bertmdmf kedos as kacfky te rasf dt kfdst pdrtky ao kaof watn prepfrty praifs ds wfkk, atsffbs uokacfky tndt suin d sulstdotadk aoirfdsf ao tnf bertmdmf kedo rdtae weukj lfdinafvfj watneut do aoirfdsf ao gaodoiadk aoikusaeo, a.f., aoirfdsfj oublfr eg lerrewfrs.

Gamurf 48 Bertmdmf Kedo \dtae vfrsus Pfr Idpatd MJP

MJP 2 mress jebfstai prejuit, komjpUP 2 pfr idpatd MJP ao oebaodk VY jekkdrs ao kem tfrbs, btmr 2 bertmdmf kedordtae.

Yeurifs8 ]erkj Ldoc. Mkeldk Gaodoiadk Aoikusaeo Jdtdldsf. nttp8//jdtdtepais.werkjldoc.erm/gaodoiadkaoikusaeo/(diifssfj 49 Gflrudry


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Yfieoj, Gamurfs < doj 9 snew tnf gattfj kaofs ger sabpkf qudjrdtai rfmrfssaeos eg tnfbertmdmf kedo rdtae eo z doj opk, rfspfitavfky. Znfy snew fvajfoif eg do aovfrtfj V-sndpf rfkdtaeo lftwffo tnf bertmdmf kedo rdtae doj tnf X-sierf, doj d V-sndpfrfkdtaeosnap lftwffo tnf bertmdmf kedo rdtae doj tnf OPK rdtae, rfspfitavfky. Gerbertmdmf kedo sndrfs up te dleut 90%’:0%, d rasaom bertmdmf sndrf tfojs te lfdsseiadtfj watn namnfr gaodoiadk stdlakaty ao letn idsfs. Newfvfr, dlevf dreuoj :0%,tnf rfkdtaeosnap turos ofmdtavf doj pesatavf ger z doj opk, rfspfitavfky, summfstaom tndtnamnfr bertmdmf kedo rdtaes bdy lf ofmdtavf ger gaodoiadk stdlakaty. Znas as ieosastfotwatn tnf fxpfitdtaeo tndt tnf djvdotdmfs eg dssft javfrsagaidtaeo wakk jabaoasn ag d ldoc‑skedo pertgekae as fxifssavfky ieoifotrdtfj ao bertmdmf kedos. At sneukj lf oetfj tndt tnftrfoj kaofs wfrf fstabdtfj ly fkabaodtaom eutkafrs greb tnf sdbpkf diierjaom te tnfgekkewaom rukfs (tnf 4% iratfrad gekkews Nfssf doj Ianäc S6% as tnf iutegg vdkufger tnf bertmdmf kedo rdtae)8

• Bertmdmf kedo rdtae8 Jreppaom kewfst 4% doj tnesf watn rdtae ?>6%

• X-sierf8 Jreppaom namnfst 4% doj kewfst 4%

• OPKs8 Jreppaom namnfst 4% doj kewfst 4%.

Znfsf rukfs wfrf dkse gekkewfj ao tnf rfmrfssaeo fstabdtfs jfsiralfj ao Yfitaeo 6.

Gamurf


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Gamurf 98 Bertmdmf Kedo \dtae vfrsus Ldoc OPK \dtae

opk 2 oeopfrgerbaom kedo rdtae3 btmr 2 bertmdmf kedo rdtae, sabpkf rfmrfssaeo eg opk eo btmr doj btmr <

Yeurifs8 Lurfdu vdo Jahc. Ldocsiepf Jdtdldsf. nttps8//ldocsiepf.lvjaoge.ieb/vfrsaeo-


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jastralutfj. Gaodkky, μ doj ι drf tnf iefggaiafots eg aotfrfst tndt bfdsurf tnf fggfits egtnf bertmdmf kedo rdtae eo gaodoiadk stdlakaty, ξ as tnf vfiter eg iefggaiafots eg tnf ldoc-spfiagai vdradlkfs, doj γ as tnf vfiter eg iefggaiafots eg tnf fieoeby-spfiagai vdradlkfs.

6.< \fmrfssaeo Bftnejs]f fstabdtf tnf pdrdbftfrs eg fqudtaeo (


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4


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tnf sazf eg tetdk dssfts ieukj lf do aojaidter snewaom tnf gaodoiadk strfomtn eg d ldoc.Znf iest’aoiebf rdtae as geuoj te lf ofmdtavfky rfkdtfj watn ldocs‑ X-sierfs, lut watnkattkf fggfit eo tnf OPK rdtae. Znas rfsukt as ieosastfot watn tnesf ao Nfssf doj Ianäc(


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4:

Zdlkf :8 Jyodbai Pdofk Fstabdtaeo \fsukts

Wdradlkf X-Yierf OPK

(4) (41*** 0.>4=***

(0.04>) (0.097)opk ’4 0.=6


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7. \ELVYZOFYY INFIC

Znf ldoc-spfiagai aogerbdtaeo ao eur sdbpkf vdrafs wajfky, rfsuktaom ao d quatfnftfremfofeus sdbpkf watn d kdrmf prepertaeo eg eutkafrs. Ao eur bdao dodkysas, eur

strdtfmy te jfdk watn tnf eutkafrs as prfsfotfj ao Yfitaeo :.


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=. IEOIKVYAEOY

Znf bdao ieotralutaeo eg eur pdpfr as te gaoj d rfkdtaeosnap lftwffo tnf sndrf egbertmdmf kfojaom doj bfdsurfs eg gaodoiadk stdlakaty, do drfd wnain nds lffo kattkf

stujafj. Best rfkdtfj stujafs ndvf keecfj aostfdj dt tnf fggfits eg bertmdmf kfojaommrewtn doj mfofrdk irfjat mrewtn eo tnf rasc eg gaodoiadk irasfs. Fvfo gfwfr stujafsndvf fxdbaofj tnas rfkdtaeosnap usaom ldoc-kfvfk jdtd. Dkse, at as oetdlkf tndt tnf sndrfeg bertmdmf kfojaom tfojs te rasf watn pfr idpatd MJP, wnain summfsts tndt at ido sfrvfds do aojaidter eg letn gaodoiadk jfvfkepbfot doj gaodoiadk aoikusaeo. Znas as samoagaidot,letn lfidusf eg tnf abpertdoif eg bertmdmf kfojaom ao evfrdkk neusfnekj irfjat, dojlfidusf at as tnf eoky vdradlkf rfkdtfj te gaodoiadk aoikusaeo ao tnf Ldocsiepf jdtdldsf.

]f fstabdtfj tnf fggfit eg tnf sndrf eg bertmdmf kfojaom ly aojavajudk ldocs (temftnfrwatn sebf ieotrek vdradlkfs) eo twe bfdsurfs eg gaodoiadk stdlakaty. ]f gaoj sebffvajfoif tndt, up te d irataidk kfvfk eg 90%’:0% eg tetdk kedos, do aoirfdsfj sndrf egbertmdmf kfojaom as pesatavf ger d ldoc‑s gaodoiadk stdlakaty, spfiagaidkky ly kewfraom tnf

preldlakaty eg jfgdukt ly gaodoiadk aostatutaeos doj rfjuiaom tnf rdtae eg oeopfrgerbaomkedos. Newfvfr, ag tnf bertmdmf sndrf fxiffjs tndt kfvfk, tnf abpdit eo gaodoiadkstdlakaty lfiebfs ofmdtavf. Znas rfsukt as ieosastfot watn tnf oetaeo tndt dssftjavfrsagaidtaeo aoirfdsfs stdlakaty, wnfrfds dssft ieoifotrdtaeo as ofmdtavf ger stdlakaty.At sneukj lf oetfj tndt oeof eg tnf fieoebafs ao tnf sdbpkf ndj neusaom lullkfs ergaodoiadk irasfs ao tnf fstabdtaeo pfraej, se tnf jdtd sdbpkf ierrfspeojs te d oerbdk(oeoirasas) pfraej. Znf rfsukts bdy jaggfr ag irasas pfraejs drf aoikujfj.

Znfsf rfsukts drf ieogarbfj watn tnf EKY doj MBB rfmrfssaeos. Znfsf snew tndtbertmdmf kfojaom ido bdcf d pesatavf ieotralutaeo te gaodoiadk stdlakaty up te d ifrtdaopeaot, dt kfdst juraom pfraejs oet indrditfrazfj ly rfdk fstdtf lullkfs er gaodoiadkirasfs. Znas javfrsagaidtaeo fggfit as sabakdr te tndt geuoj ger YBF kfojaom jfsiralfj aoBermdo doj Peotaofs (


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4=

Lrfatuom, K., 4111. Znf Keidk Pewfr eg Yebf Voat \eet Zfsts ger Pdofk Jdtd,Jasiussaeo Pdpfr. Lfrkao8 Nublekjt Voavfrsaty, Lfrkao. nttp8//olo-rfsekvaom.jf/uro8olo8jf8celv844-400:76>:

Lerje, B. doj E. Hfdoof.


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doj Assufs. ]dsnaomteo, JI8 Aotfrodtaeodk Beoftdry Guoj. Yfptfblfr. pp. :7’ =9.

‚‚‚.

Mortgage Lending and Financial Stability in Asia

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