RHB Research RHB Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively available for download from www.rhbinvest.com 1 Key Market Indices (28 March 2013) Key Statistics Value Change % Change % YTD SET Value by investor Type: Daily SET 1544.57 -16.30 -1.0% 11.0% Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm) SET50 1014.98 -10.98 -1.1% 7.4% Institution 3,991.80 4,801.20 -809.40 SET100 2275.59 -25.27 -1.1% 9.5% Proprietary 7,138.26 7,141.04 -2.78 Foreign 12,173.62 11,485.75 687.88 Dow Jones 14578.54 52.38 0.4% 11.3% Retail 50,020.42 49,896.12 124.30 S&P500 1569.19 6.34 0.4% 10.0% Nasdaq 3267.52 11.00 0.3% 8.2% SET Value by investor Type FTSE 6411.74 24.18 0.4% 8.7% MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) FSSTI 3308.10 -4.93 -0.1% 4.5% Institution 10,058.16 29,890.14 Hang Seng 22299.63 -165.19 -0.7% -1.6% Proprietary 343.73 -2,203.55 Nikkei 12335.96 -120.53 -1.0% 18.7% Foreign 6,965.84 4,615.78 KLCI 1674.04 6.47 0.4% -0.9% Retail -17,367.73 -32,302.38 SHANGHAI SE 2236.30 -64.96 -2.8% -1.4% JCI 4940.98 12.88 0.3% 14.5% SET50 Index Future Long Short Net MTD YTD SET 5-yr avg 2011 2012F Institution 8,037 8,541 -504 -964 5,038 PE (x) 14.4 17.7 14.2 Foreign 5,919 5,622 297 -1,013 -12,912 P/BV(x) 1.9 2.5 2.3 Local 21,369 21,162 207 1,977 7,874 Yield(%) 4.0 2.7 3.2 MARKET DATELINE THAILAND EQUITY Investment Research Morning Matters WHAT’S INSIDE On the Platter Kasikornbank (KBANK TB; FV THB234.7 – Buy) Company Update: One- Off Uptick In Provisions Seen KBANK’s 1Q13 results are likely to reflect steady growth in loans, non- interest/net fee incomes and net interest margin. However, management has guided for a one-off increase in counter-cyclical provisions of up to THB3.5bn for the quarter. This prompts us to hike our full-year credit cost assumption from 62bps to 70bps, thereby trimming our FY13 and FY14 earnings forecasts by 4.1% and 3.8% respectively. Correspondingly, our FV is pared to THB234.7 from THB254.6 (ROE: 20.8%, COE: 11.0%, growth rate: 5.0%). Maintain BUY. MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS • Aapico set for banner year • Berli Jucker to go full throttle in Vietnam • Central spends THB1bn to open about 60 Tops outlets • SCG consolidates for higher regional strength • No worries over BoI setback • LPG subsidy may go untouched in April • Dems skewer loan bill in debate • Exports tumble in February as baht rises ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS • Thailand: Exports tumble in February as baht rises • US: Business activity expanded at a slower pace in March • Japan: Manufacturers see rebound after deepest slump since quake • S. Korea: Output unexpectedly falls as growth forecast lowered • India: Current-account deficit widened to record last quarter • Euro: German unemployment rises as Europe’s crisis takes toll • US: Consumers’ confidence cools as jobless claims rise 29 Mar 2013 SET Intraday Chart
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RHB Research
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Key Market Indices (28 March 2013) Key Statistics
Value Change % Change % YTD SET Value by investor Type: Daily SET 1544.57 -16.30 -1.0% 11.0% Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm) SET50 1014.98 -10.98 -1.1% 7.4% Institution 3,991.80 4,801.20 -809.40 SET100 2275.59 -25.27 -1.1% 9.5% Proprietary 7,138.26 7,141.04 -2.78 Foreign 12,173.62 11,485.75 687.88 Dow Jones 14578.54 52.38 0.4% 11.3% Retail 50,020.42 49,896.12 124.30 S&P500 1569.19 6.34 0.4% 10.0% Nasdaq 3267.52 11.00 0.3% 8.2% SET Value by investor Type FTSE 6411.74 24.18 0.4% 8.7% MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) FSSTI 3308.10 -4.93 -0.1% 4.5% Institution 10,058.16 29,890.14 Hang Seng 22299.63 -165.19 -0.7% -1.6% Proprietary 343.73 -2,203.55 Nikkei 12335.96 -120.53 -1.0% 18.7% Foreign 6,965.84 4,615.78 KLCI 1674.04 6.47 0.4% -0.9% Retail -17,367.73 -32,302.38 SHANGHAI SE
2236.30 -64.96 -2.8% -1.4% JCI 4940.98 12.88 0.3% 14.5% SET50 Index Future Long Short Net MTD YTD SET 5-yr avg 2011 2012F
• Central spends THB1bn to open about 60 Tops outlets
• SCG consolidates for higher regional strength
• No worries over BoI setback
• LPG subsidy may go untouched in April
• Dems skewer loan bill in debate
• Exports tumble in February as baht rises
ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
• Thailand: Exports tumble in February as baht rises
• US: Business activity expanded at a slower pace in March
• Japan: Manufacturers see rebound after deepest slump since quake
• S. Korea: Output unexpectedly falls as growth forecast lowered
• India: Current-account deficit widened to record last quarter
• Euro: German unemployment rises as Europe’s crisis takes toll • US: Consumers’ confidence cools as jobless claims rise
29 Mar 2013
SET Intraday Chart
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MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS
Aapico set for banner year Aapico Hitech Plc (AH), the SET-listed auto-parts maker, expects 10% sales growth and a
higher net profit this year once insurance claims from the 2011 flood crisis are paid. It
plans to review its sales target after the 34th Bangkok International Motor Show, being
held now at Impact Muang Thong Thani, ends on April 7. Last year, Aapico achieved sales
of THB16.1bn baht for a net profit of THB917m. (Bangkok Post)
Berli Jucker to go full throttle in Vietnam
Berli Jucker Plc (BJC), the SET-listed manufacturing and trading company, will start its
retail business in Vietnam in the first half of this year. BJC, majority owned by whisky
tycoon Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi, is also considering whether to invest THB1bn to
expand its tissue paper production capacity in Vietnam or Thailand this year. (Bangkok
Post)
Central spends THB1bn to open about 60 Tops outlets Central Food Retail Co (CFR), the operator of Tops supermarkets, is set to spend 1 billion
baht to fund its expansion this year. The budget will be used to open 12-15 new branches
of Tops Market, Tops Supermarket and Central Food Hall, plus 50 new branches under
Tops Daily. (Bangkok Post)
SCG consolidates for higher regional strength Siam Cement Group is consolidating its cement and building-materials businesses - the
two fastest-growing - to strengthen its competitiveness for further regional expansion.
With the aim to increase Asean sales from 18 per cent of the total, the group has
budgeted Bt40 billion to Bt50 billion for further regional expansion via mergers and
acquisitions. Besides a petrochemical complex in Vietnam, much of the investment could
be slated for a floor-tile plant in Vietnam and cement plants in Cambodia, Indonesia and
Myanmar. (The Nation)
No worries over BoI setback The delay of new Board of Investment (BoI) incentives is unlikely to affect foreign direct
investment (FDI), as companies remain confident of continued support, say Japanese
investors. The BoI earlier this month postponed indefinitely the launch of Thailand's new
five-year promotion policy from its original schedule of mid-year. The delay will allow time
to review issues such as zoning criteria and the types of projects that will see investment
incentives abolished. (Bangkok Post)
LPG subsidy may go untouched in April Next month's scheduled partial float of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices for
households and transport may be put off for another month, says Energy Minister
Pongsak Raktapongpaisal. he said the potential deferral stems from a time-consuming
study of a proposed subsidy scheme for street vendors and low-income earners. The
Energy Policy Administration Committee this week is expected to discuss a framework for
the partial float of LPG prices. (Bangkok Post)
Dems skewer loan bill in debate Opposition and Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva raised doubts about the government's
ability to repay the debt and the transparency of the scheme, with the bill being
submitted to the House without details of the transport projects. He said if the projects
were implemented under normal budgetary procedures, the House would be able to
scrutinise it. Ms Yingluck admitted the borrowing will initially increase public debt in
proportion to the GDP of the country, but the bill will eventually generate income, raise
GDP and thereby reduce the size of public debt compared to GDP. (Bangkok Post)
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ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
Thailand: Exports tumble in February as baht rises
Thai exports in February fell by 5.8% y-o-y on tepid global demand, baht appreciation
and declining agriculture shipments. But the government remains upbeat about achieving
8-9% export growth this year as earlier projected. Vatchari Vimooktayon, the commerce
permanent secretary, said Thailand fetched USD17.9bn from exports last month. In baht
terms, exports were valued at THB530bn, down by 11.3%. The baht appreciation was a
big factor behind the export slump, said Mrs Vatchari, adding that Thai exports can
expect more pain over the next two or three months should the baht strengthen further.
(Bangkok Post)
US: Business activity expanded at a slower pace in March Business activity in the US expanded in March at a slower pace than forecast, a sign the
rebound in manufacturing will cool. The MNI Chicago Report’s business barometer fell to
52.4 this month, the lowest level of the year, from 56.8 in February. Manufacturing,
which makes up about 12% of the economy, may stabilize as some businesses wait for
more evidence that sales will hold up in the face of across-the-board cuts in government
spending. At the same time, rising consumer purchases led by automobile and home
sales will help prevent a decline in investment and inventory rebuilding. (Bloomberg)
Japan: Manufacturers see rebound after deepest slump since quake Japan’s manufacturers predict a rebound in production this month after the deepest slide
since the aftermath of the March 2011 earthquake, with the central bank poised to step
up monetary stimulus next week. Industrial output will rise 1% in March after a 0.1%
drop in February from the previous month, according to forecasts submitted for a Trade
Ministry report released in Tokyo today. Production tumbled 11% in February from a year
earlier, reflecting last year’s recession. (Bloomberg)
S. Korea: Output unexpectedly falls as growth forecast lowered
South Korea’s industrial production unexpectedly fell in February, signaling that a
recovery in Asia’s fourth-largest economy may be slower than expected as a weaker yen
threatens exports. Output fell 0.8% last month from January when it fell 1.2%, Statistics
Korea said. Production fell 9.3% y-o-y, a decline partly attributable to February having
fewer working days this year because of the Lunar New Year holiday. Today’s output
decline may bolster the government’s case for a larger supplementary spending package
after Finance Minister Hyun Oh Seok announced plans for stimulus yesterday. The
government cut the 2013 growth outlook from 3% to 2.3%. (Bloomberg)
India: Current-account deficit widened to record last quarter India’s current-account deficit widened to a record last quarter as oil and gold imports
surged, adding pressure on the government to extend a policy overhaul and attract
foreign investment as the rupee weakens. The deficit in the current account, the
broadest measure of trade, was USD32.6bn in the three months ended Dec. 31, or 6.7%
of GDP, compared with a revised USD22.6bn gap from July through September, the
Reserve Bank of India said in a statement yesterday. (Bloomberg)
Euro: German unemployment rises as Europe’s crisis takes toll
German unemployment unexpectedly rose in March as renewed tensions in financial
markets increased concerns the euro region’s recovery will falter. The number of people
out of work increased a seasonally adjusted 13,000 to 2.94 million, the Nuremberg-based
Federal Labor Agency said today. The adjusted jobless rate held at 6.9%, slightly above a
two-decade low of 6.8%. The euro area, the country’s largest export market, remains
mired in recession and Cyprus’s botched bailout is weighing on German confidence.
(Bloomberg)
US: Consumers’ confidence cools as jobless claims rise Confidence among US consumers fell to a six-week low and claims for jobless benefits
rose more than forecast, highlighting the risks to the economy posed by federal
government budget cuts. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index dropped to minus
34.4 in the week ended March from minus 33.9 as Americans’ views of the economy
deteriorated to the lowest point since early February. Applications for unemployment
insurance benefits rose by 16,000 to 357,000 last week, the Labor Department said.
(Bloomberg)
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Most Active Volume (shares) NVDR Shares to Total Paid-up Shares(%)
NET BUY NET SELL Month to Date Year to Date
Most Active Values (Btmn)
THAI NVDR : Top Ranking
RHB Research PP 7767/09/2012 (030475) 29 Mar 2013
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MARKET DATELINE
THAILAND EQUITY
Investment Research
Company Update
Kasikornbank PCL
One-Off Uptick In Provisions Seen
KBANK’s 1Q13 results are likely to reflect steady growth in loans, non-
interest/net fee incomes and net interest margin. However,
management has guided for a one-off increase in counter-cyclical
provisions of up to THB3.5bn for the quarter. This prompts us to hike
our full-year credit cost assumption from 62bps to 70bps, thereby
trimming our FY13 and FY14 earnings forecasts by 4.1% and 3.8%
respectively. Correspondingly, our FV is pared to THB234.7 from
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KEY TAKEAWAYS
No repeat of 4Q12’s NPL uptick. The group’s 4Q12 asset quality was
affected by a one-off 9.9% q-o-q uptick in absolute NPLs, as a result of certain
stringent reclassification of legacy flood-impacted loans into non-performing
ones. However, the overall NPL trend is expected to remain fairly stable in
1Q13, with gross NPL ratio likely to remain below 2.2% vs management’s full
year target of 2.4%.
Raising counter-cyclical provision buffer. The group could report an
increase in provisions of up to 34% q-o-q in its upcoming 1Q13 results. This
may imply an annualized credit cost of 108bps for 1Q13 vs 4Q12’s 81bps and
2012’s 66bps. However, the one-off lift in provisions, which is largely counter-
cyclical in nature, is a move to help raise the bank’s loans loss coverage to
above 132%. The subsequent quarters should see provisions normalizing to the
62bps level. That said, the expected tick-up in KBANK’s upcoming 1Q13
provision is expected to push its overall average credit cost for 2013 from our
original assumption of 62bps to 70bps, which also prompts us to revise our
provision estimates upwards. We have now built into our assumptions an
average quarterly provision of THB2.4bn vs management’s earlier guidance for
THB2bn.
Effectively managing NIMs. Despite intense competition for deposits in the
industry, KBANK is expected to post relatively healthy NIMs outcome for FY13,
underpinned by the following factors: i) it has a more stable funding structure
and liquidity levels, ii) as it has a less aggressive loans growth target of 9%-
11% vs the likes of SCB, which has targeted for 15%-20%, there is less need
for it to be aggressive in deposit-gathering, and iii) the bank is optimizing
returns by channeling growth in the higher-yield SME and consumer loans
segments (where average yields are at 7%), for which it is targeting 10%-12%
growth. This is in contrast to the lower-yield corporate loans which have
average yields of 4.7%, for which growth is anticipated to be at a more
moderate 4%-6%. Management has guided that NIMs for FY13 are likely to be
sustained at 3.4%-3.6% and confident that it would be able to maintain NIMs
above 3.40% by keeping its deposits growth at a slightly slower pace than
loans. This it can well afford given the former’s stronger liquidity and more
moderate loans growth targets. In fact, its management believes that the key
risk to its 2013 NIMs outlook lies in any potential decrease in policy rates while
the competition for deposits from Special Financial Institutions has eased
significantly since early-2012.
Non-interest and fee income growth intact. Both non-interest and fee
incomes are expected to grow by 15% and 12%-13% y-o-y respectively in
2013. The aggressive push of its non-loan related retail products, enhanced
multi-channel sales, pro-active customer data mining and analytics
management, strong campaign response rates and increasing product holds via
aggressive cross-selling and up-selling, have led to KBANK having among the
strongest non-interest income and transaction fee income franchises.
RHB Research PP 7767/09/2012 (030475) 29 Mar 2013
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Figure 1 KBANK’s key financial targets
Source: KBANK
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FINANCIALS AND VALUATIONS
Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Interest income 62,272 83,693 96,174 108,174 119,638
Total equity 145,488 166,965 200,821 231,735 266,181
Total liabilities & equity 1,546,665 1,722,945 2,077,443 2,204,775 2,457,096
Source: RHBRI, Company Data
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Total provisions / reported NPLs 111.0% 127.1% 131.8% 135.3% 137.6%
Source: RHBRI, Company Data
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RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months
Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain
Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months
Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels
Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months
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