See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFA TM Platform 5-Nov-2013 Morning Matters WHAT’S INSIDE On The Platter ICHITAN Group (ICHI TB; FVTHB19- Initial Public Offering (Initiate): Leader Of Ready-To-Drink Tea Ichitan is a leading RTD green tea maker in Thailand. The company is also a fast-growing company with highly-efficient operations, having grown its market share from zero to 50% within two years of inception (vs Oishi’s flat 44%) while posting an NPM of 15% (4x over that of Oishi). With its capacity expansion, lower interest expenses, and FY13-FY15 sales growth of 80%/20%/15%, we project net profit to grow 177%/33%/16% respectively, with a THB19 TP (20x P/E). MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS Kittiratt: Overseas bonds 20% B10bn for cassava income guarantee KTB seeks to cut bad debt Oil to trend lower on larger supply Unease grows as politics threatens tourism sector ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS Rosneft eyes partnership with PTT in VN BOJ Struggles to Convince on 2% as Abenomics Shine Fades Thailand’s Top Fund Manager Sells Stocks as Protests Hurt Growth Vietnam’s REE Bets on Market-Based Energy Pricing Future U.K. Outlook Raised by CBI as Construction Strengthens Americans’ Debt Hangover Seen Ending in Boost to Growth SET Intra-Day Graph Source: Bloomberg Key Market Indices (4 November 2013) Value Chg % Chg % YTD SET 1388.40 -40.68 -2.8% -0.3% SET50 949.84 -27.43 -2.8% 0.5% SET100 2087.33 -63.32 -2.9% 0.4% Dow Jones 15639.12 23.57 0.2% 19.3% S&P500 1767.93 6.29 0.4% 24.0% Nasdaq 3936.59 14.55 0.4% 30.4% FTSE 6763.62 28.88 0.4% 14.7% FSSTI 3203.94 2.74 0.1% 1.2% Hang Seng 23189.62 -60.17 -0.3% 2.4% Nikkei 14281.94 80.37 0.6% 37.5% KLCI 1807.47 -2.94 -0.2% 7.0% SHANGHAI SE 2149.64 0.07 0.0% -5.3% JCI 4423.29 -9.30 -0.2% 2.5% SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F PE (x) 13.9 15.1 14.0 P/BV (x) 1.8 2.2 2.1 Yield (%) 4.0 3.1 3.3 Key Statistics SET Value by investor Type: Daily Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm) Institution 2,842.83 3,267.31 -424.49 Proprietary 3,584.47 4,239.95 -655.48 Foreign 8,674.04 9,450.79 -776.75 Retail 19,610.88 17,754.17 1,856.71 SET Value by investor Type MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 338.58 81,499.21 Proprietary -747.72 -2,244.21 Foreign -2,547.97 -107,799.64 Retail 2,957.10 28,544.64 SET50 Index Future Long Short Net MTD YTD Institution 5,800 5,492 308 -135 10,785 Foreign 2,546 4,570 -2,024 -2,362 -11,912 Local 9,491 7,775 1,716 2,497 1,127 Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%) -24.9 -81.6 -3,516.9 -315.1
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See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFATM
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5-Nov-2013
Morning Matters
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WHAT’S INSIDE
On The Platter
ICHITAN Group (ICHI TB; FVTHB19- Initial Public Offering (Initiate): Leader Of Ready-To-Drink Tea
Ichitan is a leading RTD green tea maker in Thailand. The company is also a fast-growing company with highly-efficient operations, having grown its market share from zero to 50% within two years of inception (vs Oishi’s flat 44%) while posting an NPM of 15% (4x over that of Oishi). With its capacity expansion, lower interest expenses, and FY13-FY15 sales growth of 80%/20%/15%, we project net profit to grow 177%/33%/16% respectively, with a THB19 TP (20x P/E).
MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS
Kittiratt: Overseas bonds 20%
B10bn for cassava income guarantee
KTB seeks to cut bad debt
Oil to trend lower on larger supply
Unease grows as politics threatens tourism sector
ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS
Rosneft eyes partnership with PTT in VN
BOJ Struggles to Convince on 2% as Abenomics Shine Fades
Thailand’s Top Fund Manager Sells Stocks as Protests Hurt Growth
Vietnam’s REE Bets on Market-Based Energy Pricing Future
U.K. Outlook Raised by CBI as Construction Strengthens
Americans’ Debt Hangover Seen Ending in Boost to Growth
Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%) -24.9 -81.6 -3,516.9 -315.1
See important disclosures at the end of this report 2
Media Highlights
Kittiratt: Overseas bonds 20%
The government plans to borrow up to 15-20% of the money in dollars required for its 2-trillion-baht worth of infrastructure projects, says Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong. Liquidity in the local financial market is ample to finance the entire project, but the government is poised to issue dollar-denominated bonds. The aim is to set the benchmark Thai government bonds in overseas markets, he said yesterday during a meeting with government agencies and state enterprises to encourage them to speed up budget disbursement. The pricing and coupon rate of the planned bonds will reflect foreign investors' view of the country's financial position. "In the past, we always offered overseas bonds when we were in dire need of money if the local market had a liquidity crunch. We disappeared from the international market when we had a liquidity surplus," he said. Earlier, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said when she and Mr Kittiratt met with the Thai Bankers' Association (TBA) in September that 40% of the infrastructure projects would be financed by issuing dollar-denominated bonds, matching machinery imports for the megaprojects. The projects, slated to start next year, should see their construction span for seven years. The administration pinned its hopes on the massive investment, the bulk of which is for dual-track and high-speed rail, aiming to boost the country's lacklustre economy. Mr Kittiratt said the government targets 95% disbursal of the 2.525-trillion-baht fiscal budget. Of the total, 17.5% or 441 billion baht is investment budget and 82% is estimated to be drawn this fiscal year.(Bangkok Post) B10bn for cassava income guarantee
The Commerce Ministry will seek a 10-billion-baht budget to manage its cassava income guarantee plan for the 2013/2014 season. Planters are set to receive between 2.60 to three baht per kilogramme of cassava. If market prices are lower, the state will pay to offset the losses, said Deputy Commerce Minister Yanyong Phuangrach. The income guarantee plan will replace the current pledging scheme in which the government used 27 billion baht, including 4 billion in management costs, to buy about 10 million tonnes of cassava from growers. Mr Yanyong estimated 28 million tonnes of cassava would be harvested next crop, benefitting 500,000 planters. He said the change helps prevent planters from harvesting all at the same time, which could result in market prices declining. (Bangkok Post)
KTB seeks to cut bad debt
Krungthai Bank (KTB) is slowing down its microfinance business in a bid to curb non-performing loans (NPLs) that have climbed in line with its growing loan portfolio, said senior vice-president Weidt Nuchjalern. After offering microfinance loans for two years, bad debt has increased to about 4% of outstanding loans of 1.5 billion baht, he said. The bank attributed the poor performance to its own weak debt-collecting system and borrowers' lack of financial discipline, said Mr Weidt. Improvements to KTB's debt collection are expected to be completed in January. It is also considering using the debt-collecting service of either Krungthai Card or KTB Leasing. Mr Weidt said the bank has changed its policy by separating debt collection staff from sales staff. Previously, branch staff had to collect debts and seek new microfinance clients. Under its development plan, KTB has targeted to limit bad debt to no more than 2% of loans. (Bangkok Post) Oil to trend lower on larger supply
Global oil prices will be on the downward trend next year, with Dubai crude expected to trade at US$104 a barrel, thanks to additional supply from non-Opec members, says PTT Plc. Jitwassika Hongthong Silpakul, petroleum analyst at the oil and gas giant, said yesterday that the price of Dubai crude should edge down from this year's average of $105. Global demand of crude is projected at 91 million barrels per day (bpd), up by around 1.1 million, while supply will increase by 1.7 million bpd, she said at the annual petroleum outlook forum hosted by IRPC Plc. "Opec is expected to produce one-third of the world supply. New supply from non-Opec members such as the US, Mexico and Brazil will make up the rest, causing a slight decline in price next year," said Ms Jitwassika. PTT also forecasts diesel prices in Singapore will average $122 next year, with premium petrol quoted at $117. Oil price estimates are based on global growth projections of 3.6% next year, she said. (Bangkok Post) Unease grows as politics threatens tourism sector
The hopes of retail and tourism firms for a high-season sales boost are being shattered by political problems. It will grow worse if protests turn violent and Ratchaprasong intersection is seized by demonstrators in the style of 2010's red-shirt rally, says the Ratchaprasong Square Trade Association (RSTA). Normally, the peak fourth quarter draws many foreign tourists and benefits hotels and shopping malls. "The retail and tourism situation in Bangkok will continue its normalcy as long as the protests are still peaceful and do not paralyse major business districts or Ratchaprasong intersection like before," said Chai Srivikorn, the RSTA president. The Ratchaprasong area is a tourist magnet. Foreigners account for 35-50% of sales at each shop in the district. Mr Chai said demonstrations are not a problem in themselves. The real issue is management: a rally can happen anywhere in the world, but it must be under control of law. The RSTA is monitoring the situation and stands ready to talk with every group about security measures. (Bangkok Post)
See important disclosures at the end of this report 3
Economic Highlights
Rosneft eyes partnership with PTT in VN
Russian Rosneft Oil and Gas Group is reportedly seeking to become a partner of PTT, Thailand's national oil and gas company, in the development of the planned Nhon Hoi refinery complex in Vietnam. PTT in August formally announced a project to build Nhon Hoi Oil Refinery Complex in Binh Dinh, potentially with the investment of upto US$27 billion. Once completed, it will be one of the largest oil refinery complexes in Asia. Viet Nam News, a member of the Asia News Network, reported last week that a Russian business delegation, led by Igor Soglayev, general director of Sarvors Company under the Russian Rosneft, went on a fact finding tour in the country. Soglayev said Rosneft had announced its intention to become one of PTT’s strategic partners in the project. PTT's executives could not be reached for confirmation. Rosneft is now one of the world’s leading petroleum groups, with production capacity of 250 million tonnes of oil per year and annual profit of US$2.8 billion. Thailand's Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is scheduled for an official trip to Russia in December. (The Nation) BOJ Struggles to Convince on 2% as Abenomics Shine Fades
Half a year after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda unleashed record monetary easing, economists see the bank failing to meet its inflation target, underscoring the case for stronger steps to revive the economy. While the median estimate of BOJ board members released last week showed the bank expects consumer prices to rise 1.9 percent in the 2015 fiscal year -- in line with a 2-percent-in-two-years goal laid out in April -- just two of 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News see the target met in that timeframe. With the central bank seen standing pat on the pace of asset purchases until it can assess the impact of an April 2014 sales-tax bump, the onus is now on the government to sustain confidence in the Abenomics project. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has yet to introduce legislation such as corporate-tax cuts that companies have advocated to boost Japan’s potential. (Bloomberg) Thailand’s Top Fund Manager Sells Stocks as Protests Hurt Growth
Central banks in advanced economies from the U.S. to Europe and Japan said emergency currency-swap lines established during the global financial crisis will be made permanent, providing safeguards against future turbulence. Temporary, bilateral arrangements between the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Japan will be converted into standing facilities, allowing lenders access to global currencies when needed, according to statements today from the central banks. “It’s a very sensible maneuver,” said Julian Callow, chief international economist at Barclays Plc in London. “Since the financial crisis it’s clear that central banks are coordinating much more closely. This makes permanent something that was born as an emergency reaction to that crisis.” (Bloomberg) Vietnam’s REE Bets on Market-Based Energy Pricing Future
Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corp. plans to buy more stakes in Vietnamese state-run power companies, anticipating the government will gradually deregulate electricity pricing. REE, as the company is known, said last week profit surged 71 percent in the nine months ended Sept. 30, buoyed by investment income. The company will seek opportunities to add more utility assets and may consider separately listing the power and water holdings eventually, she said. Vietnam is moving the power sector toward competitive market-based arrangements, the World Bank said in a report this year. As the country struggles with slower economic growth, the government is seeking ways to save money. The government raised the average retail power price in August by 5 percent to 1,509 dong (7 cents) per kilowatt hour, according to state utility Vietnam Electricity Group. (Bloomberg) U.K. Outlook Raised by CBI as Construction Strengthens
The Confederation of British Industry raised its forecasts for U.K. economic growth and said business investment and trade will aid the recovery starting next year. The business lobby sees the economy expanding 1.4 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2014, it said in a quarterly report. That’s up from 1.2 percent and 2.3 percent in August. The projections came as a survey from Markit Economics showed construction unexpectedly strengthened in October to the fastest rate in six years, led by homebuilding. U.K economic growth accelerated to its fastest pace in more than three years in the third quarter as the recovery continued across all main industries. The Bank of England may raise its forecasts this month and bring forward its projection for when unemployment will reach a 7 percent threshold that will prompt policy makers to consider an interest-rate increase. (Bloomberg) Americans’ Debt Hangover Seen Ending in Boost to Growth
Suffering from a debt hangover for the past four years, Americans will resort to a time-honored cure -- hair of the dog that bit them. A pickup in borrowing will give the world’s biggest economy a much-needed boost next year as federal government austerity pinches growth. Workers will be more willing to take out loans as the lowest unemployment rate in almost five years bolsters job security, while banks will be more likely to lend after cleaning up their own balance sheets. The resulting gains in personal spending will help counter the effects of federal-budget cuts that are weighing on the expansion, according to Ben Garber, an economist at Moody’s Capital Markets Research Inc. in New York. “Consumers taking on more debt at a time when the deficit is shrinking would be a strong positive for the economy,” Garber said. “This will help offset some of the fiscal austerity that we’re experiencing.” Federal outlays relative to the size of the economy declined to 22 percent in 2012, the smallest since 2008, according to figures from the Congressional Budget Office. It projects the share will drop over the subsequent five fiscal years, reaching 20.6 percent in 2017. (Bloomberg)
See important disclosures at the end of this report 4
Outperform
Current Target Upside/
Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks
(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F
BH Buy 87.25 107.00 22.6 26.4 1.9
CPN Buy 45.00 66.00 46.7 16.0 1.4
NOK Buy 23.70 37.60 58.6 10.5 4.8
TOP Buy 62.25 74.90 20.3 10.2 3.9 .
Underperform
Current Target Upside/
Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks
Return on average assets (%) n.a. 16.3% 10.1% 11.5% 14.6%
Return on average equity (%) n.a. 80.0% 26.9% 19.7% 21.0%
Net debt to equity (%) n.a. 2.92 net cash net cash net cash
Recurrent cash flow per share n.a. 0.61 0.97 1.28 1.41
Source: The company data, RHB Research
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RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. 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