1 February, 2007 February, 2007 Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference New York
Jun 12, 2015
1
February, 2007February, 2007
Morgan Stanley
Basic Materials Conference
New York
2
DisclaimerDisclaimer
This document does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of Evraz Group S.A. (Evraz) or any of its subsidiaries in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. None of the Evraz or any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the document.
This document contains “forward-looking statements”, which include all statements other than statements of historical facts, including, without limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”, “will”, “may”, “anticipates”, “would”, “could” or similar expressions or the negative thereof. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond Evraz’s control that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Evraz to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking, including, among others, the achievement of anticipated levels of profitability, growth, cost and synergy of recent acquisitions, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions.
Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding Evraz’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which Evraz Group S.A. will operate in the future. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date as of which they are made, and Evraz expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in Evraz’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements are based.
Neither Evraz, nor any of its agents, employees or advisors intend or have any duty or obligation to supplement, amend, update or revise any of the forward-looking statements contained in this document.
The information contained in this document is provided as at the date of this document and is subject to change without notice.
3
Evraz HighlightsEvraz Highlights
n Vertically integrated steel and mining business, one of the largest steel producers in the world
n 1H06 Revenue grew 5.3% y-o-y to $3,825 mln reflecting 23% increase in sales volumes to 8.3 million tonnes
n 1H06 EBITDA flat y-o-y at $1.1 bn, EBITDA margin remains strong at 29%
n Leader in Russian long products market with 30-100% market share
n High level of vertical integration and self-sufficiency in iron ore and coal with mines located close to steel production sites
n Strong commitment to high standards of corporate governance
*Excluding Oregon Steel Mills operations
4
EVRAZ GROUPEVRAZ GROUP’’S MAIN LOCATIONSS MAIN LOCATIONS
Iron ore mining
Coal mining Sea port
Steel mills
Vanadium Main export countries
NakhodkaSea Port
Neryungriugol
ZapSib
Mine 12
Raspadskaya
NKMK
YKU
EvrazRudaNTMK
VGOKKGOK
Moscow
Stratcor
Vitkovice Steel
Palini e Bertoli
Highveld (24.9%)
LuxembourgLondon
Stratcor
OSM
OSM
OSM
5
Our Vision is to be a world class steel and mining company
and one of the Top 5 most profitable steelmakers globally by
ROCE and EBITDA margin through:
n Leadership in CIS construction and railway steel product markets
n Strengthened positions in global flat product markets
n Lowest costs secured by superior efficiency and 100% self-sufficiency in raw materials
n Growing vanadium business
VISION AND STRATEGIC GOALSVISION AND STRATEGIC GOALS
6
2006 WORLD STEEL 2006 WORLD STEEL PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
China
RoW
CIS
EU
USA
Japan
Source: IISI report and Evraz estimate
n 2006 world crude steel output reached 1,239.5 mln tonnes representing anincrease of 8.8% y-o-y. China produced 418.8 mln tonnes
n In Russia, crude steel production grew by 6.8% to 70.6 mln tonnes and apparent consumption increased by 20%
n Global steel demand likely to grow 5% in 2007 and at 3%+ per annum over the next decade
mln tonnes
7
CONSTRUCTION GROWTHCONSTRUCTION GROWTHIN RUSSIAIN RUSSIA
4143.6
50.2
61 60.3 62.3
55
2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008* 2009* 2010*
New Housing Construction in Russia
40
30
50
10 10
60
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 2010*
Panel Cast-in Brick
Share of Cast-in construction
Sources: Goskomstat RF data and forecasts; Deutsche Bank UFG
mln m2
n Construction growth in Russia and CIS continues to outperform GDP
n Growth of home construction in Russia is expected to grow at 10% annually
n The share of monolithic construction is expected to grow to up to 50%
%
8
REBAR MARKET IN RUSSIAREBAR MARKET IN RUSSIA
Privolzhye15%
Central part incl. Moscow &
the region48%
Far East3%
East-Siberian2%West-Siberian
5%
Urals8%
South region, 9%
North-West incl.
St.Petersbourg & the region
10%
Rebar market growth Rebar market by Regions
2004 2005 2006Evraz Group Other producers
3,2763,730
4,860
+14%
+30%
26% 30% 26%
‘000 tonnes
Source: Evraz market estimates
n Russian and CIS steel consumption per capita remains below global benchmarks
n Rebar market increased by 30 % in 2006
n Steel usage in construction is expected to increase from 75 kg per m2 to 93 kg per m2 due to higher volumes of monolithic buildings
9
Commercial Real Estate Commercial Real Estate ConstructionConstruction
0.8 1.4 2.13.0 3.0 3.5 4.0
0.9
1.92.1
2.5 2.02.0
2.0
1.0
2.4
3.3
3.6 4.04.4
4.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008* 2009* 2010*
Offic e Retail Warehousing
mln m2
Source: Deutsche Bank UFG
n The Russian commercial real estate market has benefited substantially from the country’s strong economic growth and high levels of business activity
n The overall expansion of the economy and growing consumer demand are beginning to take hold throughout Russia
10
SECTIONS MARKET IN RUSSIASECTIONS MARKET IN RUSSIA
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2004 2005 2006
Channel H-beam Angle
2,5162,715
2,886
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2004 2005 2006
Evraz Group Others
42%
46%
50%
Sections market in Russia Evraz share on sections market
+6%+15%
+15%+8%
+6%
(1)%
33% 33% 35%
22% 23% 23%
45% 44%41%
‘000 tonnes ‘000 tonnes
Source: Evraz market estimates
n Sections market growth due to the strong investments in industrial and infrastructure constructions
n Strong demand for H-beams and channels, Evraz leadership products
n Angles demand softening with substitution by channels, structural tubing and aluminium for light weight industrials constructions
*CAB means Channels, Angles and Beams
2,516
2,715 2,886+7%
+6%
11
AVERAGE RUSSIAN MARKET PRICES FOR LONG PRODUCTS*
Source: Evraz market estimates
US$/t
100
250
400
550
700
850
1,000
Aug-0
3
Oct-0
3
Dec-0
3
Feb-
04
Apr-04
Jun-0
4
Aug-0
4
Oct-0
4
Dec-0
4
Feb-
05
Apr-05
Jun-0
5
Aug-
05
Oct-0
5
Dec-0
5
Feb-
06
Apr-06
Jun-0
6
Aug-
06
Oct-0
6
Dec-0
6
H-beams Channels Angles Rebars*on FCA basis
12
SLABS & BILLETS PRICE DYNAMICS
Source: Metall-courier
US$/t
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Aug-0
3
Oct-0
3
Dec-0
3
Feb-
04
Apr-0
4
Jun-
04
Aug-0
4
Oct-0
4
Dec-0
4
Feb-
05
Apr-0
5
Jun-
05
Aug-0
5
Oct-0
5
Dec-0
5
Feb-
06
Apr-0
6
Jun-
06
Aug-0
6
Oct-0
6
Dec-0
6
Feb-
07
Billet (FOB, Far East) Slab (FOB, Far East)
13
2006 DEVELOPMENTS2006 DEVELOPMENTS
n Crude steel production grew by 16.3% to 16.1 million tonnes of crude steel
n Rolled products increased by 19.5% to 14.5 million tonnes driven by organic growth and acquisitions in Europe
n Strong growth on Russian market with favourable pricing environment through 2006
n Acquisition of 24.9% in Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation (South Africa) for $208 mln in July
n Acquisition of 72.84% in Strategic Minerals Corporation (USA) for $110 mln in August
n Successful IPO of OAO Raspadskaya in November
n Acquisition of Oregon Steel Mills (USA) for $2.3 bln in January 2007
n Revamp of BF5 and CB5 at NTMK inline with Capex program focused on efficiency improvement at the front end of steel production
14
1H06 STEEL SEGMENT* RESULTS1H06 STEEL SEGMENT* RESULTS
Russia50%
Asia28%
Europe16%
CIS3%
North and South
America3%
Steel Segment Sales by Region
n 1H06 Consolidated steel products sales volume up 23% to 8.3 mln tonnes
n Russia remains key market contributing 50% to total steel segment revenue for 1H06
n Sales into attractive European and US markets increased by a factor of 5
n 21% increase in semi-finished sales volumes driven by organic growth and world steel market demand
*Excluding Oregon Steel Mills operations
Semi-finished, 4,164
Construction, 2,197
Plates , 830
Railw ay , 789
Mining, 139Other**, 181
Steel Segment Sales by Product
15
744573
784
663
541
499
871
879
714
597
1H05 1H06
Rebars Sections Rails Other finished Semis
+30%
+18%
+8%
-1%
+20%
Russian Sales Mix
‘000 tonnes
1,4911,412
1,342
1,053
617
380
416
580
669
71
110
42
1H05 1H06
Billets Slabs Other semisConstruction Plates Other finished
6%
27%
60%
-28%
Non-Russian Sales Product Mix
‘000 tonnes
n 1H06 Domestic sales volumes increased by 13.8% to 3.65 million tonnes
n 1H06 Non-Russian sales volumes increased by 31.8% to 4.65 million tonnes
n European assets plates sales volumes increased 843%
n Construction steel export volumes shifted to attractive Russian market
n Favourable domestic pricing environment through 2006
1H06 STEEL SALES* BY REGION1H06 STEEL SALES* BY REGION
*Excluding Oregon Steel Mills operations
16
GROWING VANADIUM BUSINESSGROWING VANADIUM BUSINESS
Source: CRU, Evraz
Steel production
Vanadium consumption
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Steel production
Vanadium consumption
m tonnes ‘000 tonnes
Vanadium consumption growth rate
* European hot rolled coil price
V as proportion of steel prices
n Best strength to weight ratio of common engineering materials
n Steel industry responsible for 90% of consumption
n In June Evraz acquired 24.9% in Highveld
n In August Evraz acquired 72.84% in Strategic Minerals Corporation
n 1H06 Vanadium slag sales totaled $83 mln
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1995 2004 2005 2006f0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Cost of V ($/t steel) V as % of product value
FeV, $/kg
17
SUCCESSFUL IPO OF RASPADSKAYASUCCESSFUL IPO OF RASPADSKAYA
§ 18% of the capital placed on RTS and MICEX Listing
§ $2.25 per share
§ Implied market value of $1.76bn
§ 2.1 times oversubscribed
Pricing
§ Cash cost of concentrate production in the bottom quartile of the global cash cost curve (19$/t)
§ Operational efficiency on par with global peers
§ Compact integrated operating complex
Efficiency
§ Target production volume growth 2006-2010 –12% CAGR
§ Projects under way to further strengthen Raspadskaya’s positions in domestic market
§ Growth of market share in Ukraine and Eastern Europe and access to rapidly growing markets of South East Asia
Growth potential
§ EBITDA margin – c. 60% in each of the last two years
§ ROCE in 2005(1) – 31%
Strong financial
performance
§ One of the 10 largest producers of coking coal in the world
§ 781 mln tonnes of high quality coking coal proved and probable reserves in Russia
§ Evraz interests remains at 40 %
Russian leading
coking coal producer
Production Growth*
17.0
10.6
6.7
CAGR 2001-2005 - 10%
2001 2006 2010T
CAGR 2006-2010 - 12%
Source: Raspadskaya, IMC
421
541
218259
322
120127165
51
2004 2005 1H 2006
Revenue EBITDA Net income
Financial Highlights
‘mln tonnes
US$ mln
*2006 Production include production by MUK-96 and Razrez Raspadsky since December 31, 2005
18
OREGON STEEL MILLSOREGON STEEL MILLS
9
238
350
229
23%
-8%
19%16%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2003 2004 2005 2006E
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Revenue EBITDA* EBITDA Margin
n In January 2007 Evraz successfully completed tender offer for shares ofOregon Steel at $63.25 per share with total value of $2.3 bln
n The acquisition of Oregon Steel represents a solid platform for Evraz as a footprint in North America.
n Transaction secures an important place on the attractive plate market and in the expanding pipe business in North America.
n The combined company will also be the leading rail producer globally
723
1,185 1,258
1,500
1,6351,725
1,4861,660
2,000
2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E
Sales, million tonsFinancial Highlights
Source: Oregon Steel Mill
US$ mln
19
OREGON STEEL MILLSOREGON STEEL MILLS
n Leading West Coast steel producer with total capacity of 2.3 million tonnes
n Leading commodity and specialty plate producer in the Western United States
n Leading rail producer in North America
n Leading large diameter line pipe producer in North America
PortlandPlate MillStructural Tube MillCut-to-Length LineLarge Diameter Pipe Mill
PuebloSteel MillRails MillRod and Bar MillSteamless Pipe Mill
CamrosePipe Mill
Rocky MountainSteel Mill
801,000 tons48%
Oregon SteelMill Division858,000 tons
52%
2006E Sales by Product
Structural Tubing 77,000
5%
Welded Pipe 265,000 16%
Plate and Coil 516,000 31%Rail 448,000
27%
Seamless Tube 65,000 4%
Rod and Bar 288,000 17%
Source: Oregon Steel Mill
20
APPENDIX APPENDIX
21
PRICE DYNAMICSPRICE DYNAMICS
n The gap between Chinese and US steel prices has narrowed to below $75/t in January and not sufficient to cover transport expenses ($60/t) and risks
n Growth of cash costs in China will push breakeven line of steel products (price increase for iron ore, ocean freight ($10-15), electricity, further appreciation of the CNY versus the USD)
World HRC Spot Prices US HRC Price vs. Cash Costs
22
6395
17085
842
9160
16137
588
Evraz (Mine12) Raspadskaya Yuzhkuzbassugol
20052006
4,053 4,275
2005 2006
Q4
9M
3,639
4,103
2005 2006
Q49M
3,218
3,610
2005 2006
Q49M
2,955
3,085
2005 2006
Q4
9M
EVRAZ 2006 PRODUCTION EVRAZ 2006 PRODUCTION RESULTS*RESULTS*
IRON ORE ‘000 tonnes
*Mine 12 operational results are consolidated into the Group since April 2005. Evraz Group holds 40% beneficial interest in OAO Raspadskaya and 50% interest in Yuzhkuzbassugol. Operational results of Yuzhkuzbassugol are consolidated into the Group since December 31, 2005, while operational results of OAO Raspadskaya are consolidated into the Group since March, 2004, and include production by MUK-96 and Razrez Raspadsky since their acquisition in May 31, 2006.
Steel, ‘000 tonnes
COAL**, ‘000 tonnes
+43.2%
+43.2%
(5.5)%
+16.3%
Rolled Products, ‘000 tonnesPig Iron, ‘000 tonnes
+11.4%
+19.6%
16,666 16,989
11,45312,754
12,086
14,457 13,85216,115
+1.9%
**Excluding Oregon Steel Mills operations
23
STRONG BALANCE SHEET STRONG BALANCE SHEET (excluding OSM)(excluding OSM)
n Current credit ratings (reaffirmed after OSM tender offer): BB by Fitch; Ba3 by Moody’s; BB- by S&P
n Well-capitalised balance sheet to fund future growth
1Net debt equals total debt less cash & cash equivalents and short-term bank deposits
1,374
2,394 2,652
1,094
1,736
1,883
1.0
0.5
0.9
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2004 2005 LTM0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Total Debt Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA
2Evraz have not prepared audited or reviewed financial statements for the 12 month period ended 30 June 2006. Financial indicators presented under LTM (last twelve months) are calculated as a sum of 1H06 financial results and FY05 less 1H05 financial results3ROCE represents profit from operations plus profit from equity investments less income tax over total equity plus interest bearing loans and lease average for the period
Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio Total Assets
4,253
6,663
7,317
20%
27%
67%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2004 2005 LTM0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total Assets ROCE
US$ mln US$ mln
2
13
2
24
COST STRUCTURECOST STRUCTURE
Steel Segment Costs Mining Segment Costs
Raw materials20%
Staff20%
Depreciation7%
SG&A11%
Other18%
Energy24%Transport
10%
SG&A10%
Raw materials54%
Other8%
Staff8%
Energy7%
Depreciation3%
n 1H06 Cost of revenues up y-o-y 11.9% to $2,520 mln as a result of higher steel sales volumes, lower raw material prices and acquisitions impact
n Risk of further cost increase concentrated in energy and labour expenses
25
OSM US PEERS PROFITABILITY
846
608 621
876
714
951
733702
957
740
Oregon SteelMill
Steel Dynamics Nucor Ipsco US Steel
2005 Q3 2006
Revenue per tonne (US$)
155
89
117135
294
249
121
167184
296
Oregon Steel Mill US Steel Nuc or Steel Dynamics Ipsc o2005 Q3 2006
EBITDA(1) per ton (US$)
(1) EBITDA is defined as the sum of net income, depreciation and amortization, interest, and income taxexpense and excludesfixed and other asset impairment charges,labor dispute settlement charges, settlement of litigationand loss on earlyextinguishment of debt
n Superior profitability of OSM vs most US peers due to high margin product mix
§ Sales per ton ratio of $846 in 2005 and $951 in 3Q06
§ EBITDA per ton of $155 in 2005 and $249 in 3Q06
26
§ In 2007 flat steel consumption is likely to decline by 2.5% based on volumes reduction of building construction and automobile production. In future consumption growth is estimated at 3% a year.
US FLAT PRODUCTS IN 2007 – 2010
Source: AIIS, Morgan Stanley Research, US Census Bureau, Moody’s, Standard Poor’s, UBS, Evraz estimates
Non-building construction
Building construction
Automobiles
Pipes
Other consumer goods
Other industrial goods+3.2 -2.5
+2.9+4.3
+2.9+2.8
16 052 18 153 18 884 19 925 21 076 22 295
18 84418 899 15 495 16 495 16 994 17 494
20 359 19 24418 632 18 107 18 121 18 004
10 671 11 64512 556 12 847 12 955 13 073
5 0435 200
5 3045 415
5 5565 7129 332
9 6969 909
10 35510 862
11 395
2005 2006E 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F
27
9,890 9,633
8,4687,7008,030
2002 2003 2004 2005 8 m 2006
Construction and
service centres
65.6
Pipes17.1
Railway industry
3.2Ship
buildings4.1
Raw materials
5.4
Others4.6
Source: SBB, International Trade Administration data
Note: all indicators are calculated from short tons into the metric ones (1 short ton = 0.907 metric ton)
US PLATE MARKET
Plate prices$/tonne
450500550600650700750800850900
950
Jan 05 Mar 05 May 05 Jul 05 Sep 05 Nov 05 Jan 06 Mar 06 May 06 Jul 06 Aug 06 Oct 06
US Midwest mill, FOB Export Import
Consumption structure, 2005Plate Consumption
-4%-3%
34%
28% %‘000 tonnes