Top Banner
1 February, 2007 February, 2007 Morgan Stanley Basic Materials Conference New York
28
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

1

February, 2007February, 2007

Morgan Stanley

Basic Materials Conference

New York

Page 2: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

2

DisclaimerDisclaimer

This document does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of Evraz Group S.A. (Evraz) or any of its subsidiaries in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein. None of the Evraz or any of its affiliates, advisors or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with the document.

This document contains “forward-looking statements”, which include all statements other than statements of historical facts, including, without limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or that include the words “targets”, “believes”, “expects”, “aims”, “intends”, “will”, “may”, “anticipates”, “would”, “could” or similar expressions or the negative thereof. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors beyond Evraz’s control that could cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Evraz to be materially different from future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking, including, among others, the achievement of anticipated levels of profitability, growth, cost and synergy of recent acquisitions, the impact of competitive pricing, the ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals and licenses, the impact of developments in the Russian economic, political and legal environment, volatility in stock markets or in the price of our shares or GDRs, financial risk management and the impact of general business and global economic conditions.

Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding Evraz’s present and future business strategies and the environment in which Evraz Group S.A. will operate in the future. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date as of which they are made, and Evraz expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in Evraz’s expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements are based.

Neither Evraz, nor any of its agents, employees or advisors intend or have any duty or obligation to supplement, amend, update or revise any of the forward-looking statements contained in this document.

The information contained in this document is provided as at the date of this document and is subject to change without notice.

Page 3: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

3

Evraz HighlightsEvraz Highlights

n Vertically integrated steel and mining business, one of the largest steel producers in the world

n 1H06 Revenue grew 5.3% y-o-y to $3,825 mln reflecting 23% increase in sales volumes to 8.3 million tonnes

n 1H06 EBITDA flat y-o-y at $1.1 bn, EBITDA margin remains strong at 29%

n Leader in Russian long products market with 30-100% market share

n High level of vertical integration and self-sufficiency in iron ore and coal with mines located close to steel production sites

n Strong commitment to high standards of corporate governance

*Excluding Oregon Steel Mills operations

Page 4: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

4

EVRAZ GROUPEVRAZ GROUP’’S MAIN LOCATIONSS MAIN LOCATIONS

Iron ore mining

Coal mining Sea port

Steel mills

Vanadium Main export countries

NakhodkaSea Port

Neryungriugol

ZapSib

Mine 12

Raspadskaya

NKMK

YKU

EvrazRudaNTMK

VGOKKGOK

Moscow

Stratcor

Vitkovice Steel

Palini e Bertoli

Highveld (24.9%)

LuxembourgLondon

Stratcor

OSM

OSM

OSM

Page 5: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

5

Our Vision is to be a world class steel and mining company

and one of the Top 5 most profitable steelmakers globally by

ROCE and EBITDA margin through:

n Leadership in CIS construction and railway steel product markets

n Strengthened positions in global flat product markets

n Lowest costs secured by superior efficiency and 100% self-sufficiency in raw materials

n Growing vanadium business

VISION AND STRATEGIC GOALSVISION AND STRATEGIC GOALS

Page 6: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

6

2006 WORLD STEEL 2006 WORLD STEEL PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

China

RoW

CIS

EU

USA

Japan

Source: IISI report and Evraz estimate

n 2006 world crude steel output reached 1,239.5 mln tonnes representing anincrease of 8.8% y-o-y. China produced 418.8 mln tonnes

n In Russia, crude steel production grew by 6.8% to 70.6 mln tonnes and apparent consumption increased by 20%

n Global steel demand likely to grow 5% in 2007 and at 3%+ per annum over the next decade

mln tonnes

Page 7: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

7

CONSTRUCTION GROWTHCONSTRUCTION GROWTHIN RUSSIAIN RUSSIA

4143.6

50.2

61 60.3 62.3

55

2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008* 2009* 2010*

New Housing Construction in Russia

40

30

50

10 10

60

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2010*

Panel Cast-in Brick

Share of Cast-in construction

Sources: Goskomstat RF data and forecasts; Deutsche Bank UFG

mln m2

n Construction growth in Russia and CIS continues to outperform GDP

n Growth of home construction in Russia is expected to grow at 10% annually

n The share of monolithic construction is expected to grow to up to 50%

%

Page 8: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

8

REBAR MARKET IN RUSSIAREBAR MARKET IN RUSSIA

Privolzhye15%

Central part incl. Moscow &

the region48%

Far East3%

East-Siberian2%West-Siberian

5%

Urals8%

South region, 9%

North-West incl.

St.Petersbourg & the region

10%

Rebar market growth Rebar market by Regions

2004 2005 2006Evraz Group Other producers

3,2763,730

4,860

+14%

+30%

26% 30% 26%

‘000 tonnes

Source: Evraz market estimates

n Russian and CIS steel consumption per capita remains below global benchmarks

n Rebar market increased by 30 % in 2006

n Steel usage in construction is expected to increase from 75 kg per m2 to 93 kg per m2 due to higher volumes of monolithic buildings

Page 9: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

9

Commercial Real Estate Commercial Real Estate ConstructionConstruction

0.8 1.4 2.13.0 3.0 3.5 4.0

0.9

1.92.1

2.5 2.02.0

2.0

1.0

2.4

3.3

3.6 4.04.4

4.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2004 2005 2006 2007* 2008* 2009* 2010*

Offic e Retail Warehousing

mln m2

Source: Deutsche Bank UFG

n The Russian commercial real estate market has benefited substantially from the country’s strong economic growth and high levels of business activity

n The overall expansion of the economy and growing consumer demand are beginning to take hold throughout Russia

Page 10: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

10

SECTIONS MARKET IN RUSSIASECTIONS MARKET IN RUSSIA

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2004 2005 2006

Channel H-beam Angle

2,5162,715

2,886

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2004 2005 2006

Evraz Group Others

42%

46%

50%

Sections market in Russia Evraz share on sections market

+6%+15%

+15%+8%

+6%

(1)%

33% 33% 35%

22% 23% 23%

45% 44%41%

‘000 tonnes ‘000 tonnes

Source: Evraz market estimates

n Sections market growth due to the strong investments in industrial and infrastructure constructions

n Strong demand for H-beams and channels, Evraz leadership products

n Angles demand softening with substitution by channels, structural tubing and aluminium for light weight industrials constructions

*CAB means Channels, Angles and Beams

2,516

2,715 2,886+7%

+6%

Page 11: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

11

AVERAGE RUSSIAN MARKET PRICES FOR LONG PRODUCTS*

Source: Evraz market estimates

US$/t

100

250

400

550

700

850

1,000

Aug-0

3

Oct-0

3

Dec-0

3

Feb-

04

Apr-04

Jun-0

4

Aug-0

4

Oct-0

4

Dec-0

4

Feb-

05

Apr-05

Jun-0

5

Aug-

05

Oct-0

5

Dec-0

5

Feb-

06

Apr-06

Jun-0

6

Aug-

06

Oct-0

6

Dec-0

6

H-beams Channels Angles Rebars*on FCA basis

Page 12: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

12

SLABS & BILLETS PRICE DYNAMICS

Source: Metall-courier

US$/t

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Aug-0

3

Oct-0

3

Dec-0

3

Feb-

04

Apr-0

4

Jun-

04

Aug-0

4

Oct-0

4

Dec-0

4

Feb-

05

Apr-0

5

Jun-

05

Aug-0

5

Oct-0

5

Dec-0

5

Feb-

06

Apr-0

6

Jun-

06

Aug-0

6

Oct-0

6

Dec-0

6

Feb-

07

Billet (FOB, Far East) Slab (FOB, Far East)

Page 13: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

13

2006 DEVELOPMENTS2006 DEVELOPMENTS

n Crude steel production grew by 16.3% to 16.1 million tonnes of crude steel

n Rolled products increased by 19.5% to 14.5 million tonnes driven by organic growth and acquisitions in Europe

n Strong growth on Russian market with favourable pricing environment through 2006

n Acquisition of 24.9% in Highveld Steel and Vanadium Corporation (South Africa) for $208 mln in July

n Acquisition of 72.84% in Strategic Minerals Corporation (USA) for $110 mln in August

n Successful IPO of OAO Raspadskaya in November

n Acquisition of Oregon Steel Mills (USA) for $2.3 bln in January 2007

n Revamp of BF5 and CB5 at NTMK inline with Capex program focused on efficiency improvement at the front end of steel production

Page 14: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

14

1H06 STEEL SEGMENT* RESULTS1H06 STEEL SEGMENT* RESULTS

Russia50%

Asia28%

Europe16%

CIS3%

North and South

America3%

Steel Segment Sales by Region

n 1H06 Consolidated steel products sales volume up 23% to 8.3 mln tonnes

n Russia remains key market contributing 50% to total steel segment revenue for 1H06

n Sales into attractive European and US markets increased by a factor of 5

n 21% increase in semi-finished sales volumes driven by organic growth and world steel market demand

*Excluding Oregon Steel Mills operations

Semi-finished, 4,164

Construction, 2,197

Plates , 830

Railw ay , 789

Mining, 139Other**, 181

Steel Segment Sales by Product

Page 15: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

15

744573

784

663

541

499

871

879

714

597

1H05 1H06

Rebars Sections Rails Other finished Semis

+30%

+18%

+8%

-1%

+20%

Russian Sales Mix

‘000 tonnes

1,4911,412

1,342

1,053

617

380

416

580

669

71

110

42

1H05 1H06

Billets Slabs Other semisConstruction Plates Other finished

6%

27%

60%

-28%

Non-Russian Sales Product Mix

‘000 tonnes

n 1H06 Domestic sales volumes increased by 13.8% to 3.65 million tonnes

n 1H06 Non-Russian sales volumes increased by 31.8% to 4.65 million tonnes

n European assets plates sales volumes increased 843%

n Construction steel export volumes shifted to attractive Russian market

n Favourable domestic pricing environment through 2006

1H06 STEEL SALES* BY REGION1H06 STEEL SALES* BY REGION

*Excluding Oregon Steel Mills operations

Page 16: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

16

GROWING VANADIUM BUSINESSGROWING VANADIUM BUSINESS

Source: CRU, Evraz

Steel production

Vanadium consumption

650

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Steel production

Vanadium consumption

m tonnes ‘000 tonnes

Vanadium consumption growth rate

* European hot rolled coil price

V as proportion of steel prices

n Best strength to weight ratio of common engineering materials

n Steel industry responsible for 90% of consumption

n In June Evraz acquired 24.9% in Highveld

n In August Evraz acquired 72.84% in Strategic Minerals Corporation

n 1H06 Vanadium slag sales totaled $83 mln

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 2004 2005 2006f0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Cost of V ($/t steel) V as % of product value

FeV, $/kg

Page 17: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

17

SUCCESSFUL IPO OF RASPADSKAYASUCCESSFUL IPO OF RASPADSKAYA

§ 18% of the capital placed on RTS and MICEX Listing

§ $2.25 per share

§ Implied market value of $1.76bn

§ 2.1 times oversubscribed

Pricing

§ Cash cost of concentrate production in the bottom quartile of the global cash cost curve (19$/t)

§ Operational efficiency on par with global peers

§ Compact integrated operating complex

Efficiency

§ Target production volume growth 2006-2010 –12% CAGR

§ Projects under way to further strengthen Raspadskaya’s positions in domestic market

§ Growth of market share in Ukraine and Eastern Europe and access to rapidly growing markets of South East Asia

Growth potential

§ EBITDA margin – c. 60% in each of the last two years

§ ROCE in 2005(1) – 31%

Strong financial

performance

§ One of the 10 largest producers of coking coal in the world

§ 781 mln tonnes of high quality coking coal proved and probable reserves in Russia

§ Evraz interests remains at 40 %

Russian leading

coking coal producer

Production Growth*

17.0

10.6

6.7

CAGR 2001-2005 - 10%

2001 2006 2010T

CAGR 2006-2010 - 12%

Source: Raspadskaya, IMC

421

541

218259

322

120127165

51

2004 2005 1H 2006

Revenue EBITDA Net income

Financial Highlights

‘mln tonnes

US$ mln

*2006 Production include production by MUK-96 and Razrez Raspadsky since December 31, 2005

Page 18: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

18

OREGON STEEL MILLSOREGON STEEL MILLS

9

238

350

229

23%

-8%

19%16%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2003 2004 2005 2006E

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Revenue EBITDA* EBITDA Margin

n In January 2007 Evraz successfully completed tender offer for shares ofOregon Steel at $63.25 per share with total value of $2.3 bln

n The acquisition of Oregon Steel represents a solid platform for Evraz as a footprint in North America.

n Transaction secures an important place on the attractive plate market and in the expanding pipe business in North America.

n The combined company will also be the leading rail producer globally

723

1,185 1,258

1,500

1,6351,725

1,4861,660

2,000

2003 2004 2005 2006E 2007E

Sales, million tonsFinancial Highlights

Source: Oregon Steel Mill

US$ mln

Page 19: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

19

OREGON STEEL MILLSOREGON STEEL MILLS

n Leading West Coast steel producer with total capacity of 2.3 million tonnes

n Leading commodity and specialty plate producer in the Western United States

n Leading rail producer in North America

n Leading large diameter line pipe producer in North America

PortlandPlate MillStructural Tube MillCut-to-Length LineLarge Diameter Pipe Mill

PuebloSteel MillRails MillRod and Bar MillSteamless Pipe Mill

CamrosePipe Mill

Rocky MountainSteel Mill

801,000 tons48%

Oregon SteelMill Division858,000 tons

52%

2006E Sales by Product

Structural Tubing 77,000

5%

Welded Pipe 265,000 16%

Plate and Coil 516,000 31%Rail 448,000

27%

Seamless Tube 65,000 4%

Rod and Bar 288,000 17%

Source: Oregon Steel Mill

Page 20: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

20

APPENDIX APPENDIX

Page 21: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

21

PRICE DYNAMICSPRICE DYNAMICS

n The gap between Chinese and US steel prices has narrowed to below $75/t in January and not sufficient to cover transport expenses ($60/t) and risks

n Growth of cash costs in China will push breakeven line of steel products (price increase for iron ore, ocean freight ($10-15), electricity, further appreciation of the CNY versus the USD)

World HRC Spot Prices US HRC Price vs. Cash Costs

Page 22: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

22

6395

17085

842

9160

16137

588

Evraz (Mine12) Raspadskaya Yuzhkuzbassugol

20052006

4,053 4,275

2005 2006

Q4

9M

3,639

4,103

2005 2006

Q49M

3,218

3,610

2005 2006

Q49M

2,955

3,085

2005 2006

Q4

9M

EVRAZ 2006 PRODUCTION EVRAZ 2006 PRODUCTION RESULTS*RESULTS*

IRON ORE ‘000 tonnes

*Mine 12 operational results are consolidated into the Group since April 2005. Evraz Group holds 40% beneficial interest in OAO Raspadskaya and 50% interest in Yuzhkuzbassugol. Operational results of Yuzhkuzbassugol are consolidated into the Group since December 31, 2005, while operational results of OAO Raspadskaya are consolidated into the Group since March, 2004, and include production by MUK-96 and Razrez Raspadsky since their acquisition in May 31, 2006.

Steel, ‘000 tonnes

COAL**, ‘000 tonnes

+43.2%

+43.2%

(5.5)%

+16.3%

Rolled Products, ‘000 tonnesPig Iron, ‘000 tonnes

+11.4%

+19.6%

16,666 16,989

11,45312,754

12,086

14,457 13,85216,115

+1.9%

**Excluding Oregon Steel Mills operations

Page 23: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

23

STRONG BALANCE SHEET STRONG BALANCE SHEET (excluding OSM)(excluding OSM)

n Current credit ratings (reaffirmed after OSM tender offer): BB by Fitch; Ba3 by Moody’s; BB- by S&P

n Well-capitalised balance sheet to fund future growth

1Net debt equals total debt less cash & cash equivalents and short-term bank deposits

1,374

2,394 2,652

1,094

1,736

1,883

1.0

0.5

0.9

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2004 2005 LTM0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Total Debt Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA

2Evraz have not prepared audited or reviewed financial statements for the 12 month period ended 30 June 2006. Financial indicators presented under LTM (last twelve months) are calculated as a sum of 1H06 financial results and FY05 less 1H05 financial results3ROCE represents profit from operations plus profit from equity investments less income tax over total equity plus interest bearing loans and lease average for the period

Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio Total Assets

4,253

6,663

7,317

20%

27%

67%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2004 2005 LTM0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Total Assets ROCE

US$ mln US$ mln

2

13

2

Page 24: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

24

COST STRUCTURECOST STRUCTURE

Steel Segment Costs Mining Segment Costs

Raw materials20%

Staff20%

Depreciation7%

SG&A11%

Other18%

Energy24%Transport

10%

SG&A10%

Raw materials54%

Other8%

Staff8%

Energy7%

Depreciation3%

n 1H06 Cost of revenues up y-o-y 11.9% to $2,520 mln as a result of higher steel sales volumes, lower raw material prices and acquisitions impact

n Risk of further cost increase concentrated in energy and labour expenses

Page 25: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

25

OSM US PEERS PROFITABILITY

846

608 621

876

714

951

733702

957

740

Oregon SteelMill

Steel Dynamics Nucor Ipsco US Steel

2005 Q3 2006

Revenue per tonne (US$)

155

89

117135

294

249

121

167184

296

Oregon Steel Mill US Steel Nuc or Steel Dynamics Ipsc o2005 Q3 2006

EBITDA(1) per ton (US$)

(1) EBITDA is defined as the sum of net income, depreciation and amortization, interest, and income taxexpense and excludesfixed and other asset impairment charges,labor dispute settlement charges, settlement of litigationand loss on earlyextinguishment of debt

n Superior profitability of OSM vs most US peers due to high margin product mix

§ Sales per ton ratio of $846 in 2005 and $951 in 3Q06

§ EBITDA per ton of $155 in 2005 and $249 in 3Q06

Page 26: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

26

§ In 2007 flat steel consumption is likely to decline by 2.5% based on volumes reduction of building construction and automobile production. In future consumption growth is estimated at 3% a year.

US FLAT PRODUCTS IN 2007 – 2010

Source: AIIS, Morgan Stanley Research, US Census Bureau, Moody’s, Standard Poor’s, UBS, Evraz estimates

Non-building construction

Building construction

Automobiles

Pipes

Other consumer goods

Other industrial goods+3.2 -2.5

+2.9+4.3

+2.9+2.8

16 052 18 153 18 884 19 925 21 076 22 295

18 84418 899 15 495 16 495 16 994 17 494

20 359 19 24418 632 18 107 18 121 18 004

10 671 11 64512 556 12 847 12 955 13 073

5 0435 200

5 3045 415

5 5565 7129 332

9 6969 909

10 35510 862

11 395

2005 2006E 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F

Page 27: Morgan stanley basic materials conference — new york

27

9,890 9,633

8,4687,7008,030

2002 2003 2004 2005 8 m 2006

Construction and

service centres

65.6

Pipes17.1

Railway industry

3.2Ship

buildings4.1

Raw materials

5.4

Others4.6

Source: SBB, International Trade Administration data

Note: all indicators are calculated from short tons into the metric ones (1 short ton = 0.907 metric ton)

US PLATE MARKET

Plate prices$/tonne

450500550600650700750800850900

950

Jan 05 Mar 05 May 05 Jul 05 Sep 05 Nov 05 Jan 06 Mar 06 May 06 Jul 06 Aug 06 Oct 06

US Midwest mill, FOB Export Import

Consumption structure, 2005Plate Consumption

-4%-3%

34%

28% %‘000 tonnes