Impacts of Climate Change for the Forest Products Industry By Susan Brunner February 19, 2014 1
Mooc digital artifact - Impact of Climate Change for the Forest Products Industry
Oct 22, 2014
World Bank Massive Open Online Course Digital Artifact for "Turn down the heat: Why a 4 degree warmer world must be avoided." Focus is on the role of forests and forest based products in a low carbon economy. Only with long-term, landscape level thinking can the forest-baed ecosystems and rich biodiversity found within be protected for future generations and effectively help to keep the world from heating up 4 degrees by 2100.
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1
Impacts of Climate Change for the Forest Products Industry
By Susan BrunnerFebruary 19, 2014
Global Context
Page 2
Sustainable forest
management plays a
vital role in mitigating
climate change risks and
reducing societal green
house gas emissions.
It is essential to meet
future fibre demand and
to conserve ecosystems
& biodiversity.
What are ecosystem services?
Page 3
FOODFRESH WATER
WOOD AND FIBREFUEL
CLIMATEFLOOD DISEASE
WATER PURIFICATION
AESTHETICSPIRITUAL
EDUCATIONALRECREATIONAL
NUTRIENT CYCLINGSOIL FORMATION
PRIMARY PRODUCTIONe.g. photosynthesis
The Ecosystem Landscape
Page 4
ForestsFacts
• Forest cover 1/3 of the world‘s land surface
• Carbon stocks are
• Net forest area continues to due to ongoing deforestation
• Planted forest area is growing rapidly
• Approx. 10% of the global forests are certified
Trends
• Sustainable forest management & wood procurement programs continue to grow
• Planted forests tend to be more productive than natural forests; thereby better able to meet rising demand
• Forest cover stable in top producing countries; deforestation -primarily due to land conversion for agriculture - is still rampant in some parts of the world.
PAGE 5Sources: wbcsd Forest Solutions, September 2012; UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, 2010-2011
Forest Products / PaperFacts
• Nearly 42% of the global wood harvest for industrial purposes is used to make paper.
• Export ratio of 25%-30% of global wood products and paper manufacturing output from the country of origin
• Harvesting of industrial roundwood has been stable despite increasing production of paper products
due to increasing usage of recovered fibre
Trends
• There is increased competition for forest biomass, particularly for energy production
• Global production and use of recovered paper has been increasing drastically in last two decades
• European paper recycling rate of 70.4% in 2011*
PAGE 6Source: wbcsd Forest solutions, September 2012; * source: CEPI Key Statistics 2011, p21.
Energy & Climate Change
Facts
• The world’s forests and forest soils currently store more than one trillion tonnes of carbon – twice the amount found free in the atmosphere*
• Energy consumption by the FP industry = ca. 1.5 – 2% of global final energy use
• Approx. 50% of energy needs by FP industry are supplied by biomass and it leads in using combined heat & power
Trends
• Net removals of carbon from the atmosphere attributable to carbon storage in forest products are significant
• There is improving energy efficiency in the FP sector and recycling rates continue to increase
• Energy needed to produce a metric ton of paper is 10-20% lower compared to 1990+
PAGE 7+Source: wbcsd forest solutions, September 2012; *Source: FAO = Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations
Consequences for business?
Page 8
Businesses impact on ecosystems and ecosystem services
Businesses rely and depend on ecosystems and ecosystem services
Ecosystem change creates business risks and opportunities
Consequences for business?
Page 9
€ 1.35 trillion / year: minimum estimate of natural capital loss,
just from deforestation
Approx total GDP of UK or France in 2010
US$ 190 billion / year: contribution of insect pollination to
agriculture output
Approx. 8 times Walmart’s 2010 total operating income
Ecosystem change creates business risks and opportunities
10
Biodiversity
80% terrestrial
biodiversity found in forests
Severe consequences of deforestation due to climate change include: GHG emissions, biodiversity loss and soil erosion, spread of diseases and more.
11
Water scarcity
Demand
Supp
ly
Just 1% of the earth‘s water is fresh water.
More extreme droughts & floods in a 4o C warmer world expected
12
Water scarcity
In a 2oC warmer world estimated sea level rise is roughly 79 cm above 1980-99 levels.
In a 4oC scenario sea levels will rise nearly 1m by 2100, further endangering fresh water acquifers and inland sources of fresh water
Source: MOOC Turn Down the Heat, World Bank, 2014
13
Impacts of a 4oC warmer world on forests
Major heat and extreme weather events (drought/flooding)
More frequent extreme heat waves could result in yield losses
and forest fires, which in turn release the carbon stored in the
trees.
Ecosystems climate and water regulation, erosion prevention,
and forest disease control services endangered
20 – 30% of plant and animal species are like to be at
increased risk of extinction if global average temperatures
increase more than 2-3oC above pre-industrial levels
For the sceptics….
Page 14http://www.skepticalscience.com/
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