Mar 27, 2015
Montserrat Meiro-LorenzoThe World Bank,
Tobacco taxation:Purpose and
Myths.The Role of the
WB
Outline
•Why?•What to do? Clear•How to do it? Article 6•Key issues•The Word Bank
Four Stages of Tobacco Smoking Epidemic
Source: Lopez AD, Collishaw NE, Piha T. A descriptive model of the cigarette epidemic in developed countries. Tobacco Control, 1994; 3: 242-247.
Why tax tobacco? Economist
"Sugar, rum, and tobacco, are commodities which are no where
necessaries of life, which are become objects of almost universal consumption, and which are therefore extremely proper
subjects of taxation.
Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of The Wealth of Nations, 1776
5
Why Tax Tobacco?
•Economic Efficiency• Correct for failures in tobacco product markets• Imperfect information• Externalities
• Increased health care costs, lost productivity• Increased financial costs related to publicly
financed health care used to treat diseases• Can also include “internalities” that result from
addiction and time inconsistent preferences•Other Motives affecting tax structure:
• To protect domestic industry and employment• To keep some brands/products affordable to the poorChalupka 2012
Why Tax tobacco? Health
Because high tobacco prices CAN: •Reduce the % of people that use tobacco products (prevalence).•Reduce the quantity consumed by those that continue to smoke
Improve health outcomes6
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Taxes, Prices; Health: US, 1980-2005
• 10% price increase reduces tobacco use rates by about 4% among the poor and around 8% among the better off.
• Price-elasticity of demand for cigarettes in LICs and MIC is around -0.6
• Poor and young respond more to prices than the better-off and old
People Respond to Prices
+10%
-4%
-8%
developed countries
developing countries
price change
consumption change
9Source: MTF, Tax Burden on Tobacco, 2011, and author’s calculations
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Taxes, Prices and Tobacco Use
Source: Aloui, 2003
Cigarette Consumption, Morocco, 1965-2000
Cigarette consumption in SA, 1946 - 2011
11
A very close relationship between cigarette consumption and affordability (r = - 0.98)
12
13
Cigarette Taxes and Prices Globally
Average Price Most Sold Brand, Excise Tax/Pack & Total Share 2010
Source: WHO GTCR III
Tobacco Tax: Time to Abolish Myths
•Will reduce government revenues.•Will destroy jobs / hurt particularly farmers
•Smuggling (Illicit trade) •Difficult to collect and implement •Regressive (against poor)•WTO, investment bilateral, agreements
Will reduce government
revenues
Philippines losses
The South African experience, 1961 - 2011
Big increases in the excise tax have resulted in big increases in tax revenue
Between 1993 and 2011 real excise tax increases by 487% and real excise tax revenue increases by 249%
18
Fall in consumption, real excise & industry revenues increased
19
Percentage changes in important variables since 1993
Variable Percentage
Real excise tax per pack of cigarettes 378%
Real net-of-tax price of cigarettes 153%
Real retail price 212%
Cigarette consumption -33%
Per capita cigarette consumption -51%
Real excise tax revenue 220%
Real industry revenue 69%
Smoking prevalence From about 35% to about 22%
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Destroy jobs, hurt farmers
•Tobacco Leaf productionGlobal : 6 million tonsZimbabwe: 0.21 Tons (3.5%)Malawi: 0.13 (2.2 %)Where are the subsidies going?Brazil COP4: Farmers demonstrations
Will destroy jobs, will hurt farmers
• Indian and Brazil experience from tobacco farmers and bidi roller's opposition to tough demand reduction measures on WHO-FCTC
• Min of Agriculture initiative engagement with MOH and advocacy to farmers e.g. bamboo as source of energy nets 3000 USD per acre as against 1000 USD rom tobacco
• Min of Labour and Min of Rural Development schemes on alternative livelihood to farmers and bidi rollers
WILL INCREASE SMUGLING &ILLICIT TRADE
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Mechanisms for Illicit trade control
•Who? Who are the manufacturersWho? Who are the manufacturers•What? What are they What? What are they
manufacturing ciagrrets, chewing manufacturing ciagrrets, chewing and wich tarde marksand wich tarde marks
•How much? Manufacturing How much? Manufacturing productionproduction
•For whom? destination of productsFor whom? destination of products24
Smuggling tobacco UK 1990sSmuggling tobacco UK 1990s
Tobacco industry 25-30%UK customs estimated 21%Taxed cigarettes/lower tax coun.: 9% Illicit hand rolled tobacco: 49% Main drivers – lack of control of international movement of tax free tobacco, price difference between tax free and taxed, criminal gangs
Tobacco industry 25-30%UK customs estimated 21%Taxed cigarettes/lower tax coun.: 9% Illicit hand rolled tobacco: 49% Main drivers – lack of control of international movement of tax free tobacco, price difference between tax free and taxed, criminal gangs
Policy measuresPolicy measures1000 extra customs officialsAdditional specialist investigators and intelligence officersNational network of X ray scannersTougher sanctions for those caught with smuggled tobaccoPublic awareness campaignProminent duty paid marks on packs of cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco
EFFECTSEFFECTS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08
Per cent
Projected market share if no action taken
Smuggling estimate
Target
£4.00
£4.20
£4.40
£4.60
£4.80
£5.00
£5.20
£5.40
£5.60
£5.80
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Real Cigarette prices at 2009 prices
Price rose 28% real termsPrice rose 28% real terms
Illicit trade control
•Coast line and expansive borders•Undeclared production•Unaccounted for exports •Undeclared imports: raw & finished•Counterfeited products•Under declared tax values•Switched declarations
Control measures put in place• Licencing controls
• Production monitoring, raw materials • Exports management• Bilateral information sharingTrack and Tracing solutions• Tax stamps• Electronic Cargo Tracking System
• Paper based stamps 4 security levels • Central online ordering, packaging, delivery• RT production data: brand, date & time,
package quantity, production plant & line• Market surveillance: random verification of
products in industry & verification officers through login & GPS
• Tax projections from the production data collected on real time. Accurate tax assess.
Enhanced tax regime
Automating Cargo Monitoring(Electronic Cargo Tracking)
• Electronic Cargo Tracking System ensures cargo exported exits country of export or trucked cargo reaches intended destination before any tax remissions or refunds are granted.
• Benefits: Increase of up to 30% of duty paid tobacco
Control of Supply Chain, Tax Stamps and Other Tracking Technology, and enforcement: The Experience of Kenya
and Relevance for SADC Countries.
Presented to theWorld Bank Conference on
Economics of Tobacco Control in Southern Africa:
The issues of Taxation and SmugglingGaborone 3-5th June 2012
By
Caxton Masudi NgeywoKenya Revenue Authority
RegressiveTaxing the poor
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Low-income countries
Lower-middle
Income
Upper-middle-income
High-income
Sm
ok
ing
pre
vale
nc
e (
200
4) [
%]
Lowest household income quintiles
Highest household income quintiles
The Poorest smoke most60% of the 5.7
billion cigarettes/year
are being smoked in developing countries
Poor and young respond more to prices
• If 2/3 of the money spent on cigarettes in Bangladesh were spent on food instead, it could save more than 10 million people from malnutrition
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Difficult collect & implement • Taxes already exist• Simplify existing administration
complex tobacco tax structures: Systems that feature multiple tax tiers for cigarettes; different rates for filtered and unfiltered cigarettes, for different lengths of cigarettes, for ‘premium’ versus ‘regular’ brands.
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How to Do it?•Comprehensive (all tobacco products)
•Coherent with countries' tax code•Coherent with macroeconomic policy
•Simple, implementable, easy to monitor
•Monitored•Harmonized within economic regions
Guidelines for the implementation of Article 6 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco
Control
Selected Issues
Ch1: sovereign right of countries to establish own
taxation policies• “...Should take into account...– both price elasticity and income elasticity of demand, as well as inflation, to make tobacco products less affordable over time in order to reduce consumption and prevalence.... having regular (automatic) adjustment processes or procedures for periodic revaluation of tobacco tax levels.
• Parties should implement the simplest and most efficient system that meets their health and fiscal needs, with the fewest exceptions and taking into account their national circumstances. From a budgetary as well as a health point of view...implement specific or mixed excise systems with a minimum specific tax floor, as these systems have considerable advantages over purely ad valorem systems.
Which Simplest Tax System?• Effective to reach health objectives
• Reduced complexity of tax administration
–Specific system with single rate / tier
–Ad valorem single tier/ rate with a minimum tax floor
–Mix system with single ad valorem and specific tax rate/ tier
• Proposal not simple: a mixed system with a minimum tax floor could be several tiers rates for specific or ad-valorem.
Ch2. Industry response tax increase
• Industry contributes data for tax policy: Market size, illegal trade, employment levels, tax impact, etc.
• Reduce industry power: independent sources of information and analysis.
• Standardize minimum data collection for decision making (international)and increase capacity to analyze
Ch 3: different tobacco products similar tax burdens, measurement?
• ..to avoid negative consequences, such as product substitution or an increase in illicit trade, all tobacco products should be taxed in a comparable way, with a similar tax burden, and should be accompanied by strong policies and measures against illicit trade in tobacco products
Tax different products equally• Consumer will substitute “down” to
cheaper tobacco products with similar nicotine levels.
• Taxing that other products with similar nicotine equally will reduce substitution down
• Health system to investigate nicotine equivalence for tax levels
Ch 5: Revenue earmarking• About 100 issues , interest groups
asking for earmarking• MOF loses its soveraigne mandate to
administer revenues • Perceived as conflict of interest• Hard earmarking ties your hands
Ch 6-7: assess/present ‘tax-free/duty-free sales’?
Art 15? •Parties should consider prohibiting or restricting the tax- or duty-free sales of tobacco products. They should monitor the extent to which tax- or duty-free products contribute to illicit trade and take the necessary measures if such a link is ascertained.
Ch 6-7: assess/present ‘tax-free/duty-free
sales’? Art 15? • Use the existing language in Articles 6 and 15
• Clearer
• Coherence
Which Tax levels?• Level of excise or indirect tax not very
indicative per se. 70% ad valorem < than 40% specific & if start at a very low base, no difference for health
• Establish tobacco use reduction targets per capita adult & child (health gains verifiable)
• Structure tax levels on the bases of health on objectives, be transparent about it.
• Open the dialogue on health objectives in tax policy and with authorities
Facilitate monitoring of article 6
•Harmonize the information collected in tobacco taxes as part of article 6 guidelines
The WB view•Total support to FCTC •Public health measure•Development issue: micro economic impact, fiscal impact, productivity impact, demographic dividend impact, accelerated aging
•Need for regional harmonization
WB Policy & Actions: Past •Curbing the epidemic (1998)
• No-investment policy (1999), smoke-free•Tobacco economics in developing countries.•Analysis at country and regional level, with
WHO•2007 strategy for health results•Towards a Political economy of tobacco
control•Chronic NCDs flagship study,• Numerous regional and country specific
studies on NCDs "dying young", Ukraine studies, and ongoing analysis.
WB Policy & Actions: Future
•Strengthened capacity to provide tobacco tax advice to countries and make case from the economic point of view
•Sensitizing our macro and fiscal policy colleagues
•Entering into partnerships with technical and financing institutions WHO, CDC, TFK, ACS, Research centers
•Supporting the FCTC secretariat in the context of article 6 and 15
World Bank Instruments
•Policy dialogue : CAS, PRSP (setting priorities)
•Technical assistance
•Economic and sector work (studies)
•Lending: Investment, Policy
HOW TO DO IT? • Focus on well-defined targets while addressing risk
factors from different angles.
• Give high-profile leaders a central role in driving initiatives
• Reinforce accountability of partner institutions
• Be opportunistic, identify impact on health and optimize impact
• Identify wins for non stake holders (empower non smokers)
• Engage relevant sectors according to their mandate, capacity and comparative advantage
• Ensure that different actors focus on what they do best
Lending
•Lending: Traditional Projects Ukraine
•SWAPS: Kazakstan
•Policy Dialog: DPLS LAC & EAR
How to do it? MOH
•Catalyzers•Data collection, epidemiology•Raise awareness of issue•Do background work•Identify interventions that work
•Measure impact of policies
Role of Civil Society
•Research, evidence gathering •Advocacy for increased resources for health
•Watch dog on implementation•Monitoring•Resource mobilization•Community outreach and empowerment
Role of Private Sector (non tobacco industry)
•Worker protection•Lobbying government for harmonizing regulation
•Health insurance and long term care financing
Role of other government agencies
•MOF/ economy, Customs, Ministry of Industry and Trade
•Design tax policy, taking into consideration regional harmonization are agreements enforcement and trade control
External organizations•Respond to count request or resources: TA, financing.
•Independent assessments of barriers to tax increase
•Support national and international commitment mechanisms, policy conditions international comparisons
Cigarette tax and illegal cigarette market, Spain 1991-2008
Spain: Size of contraband cigarette market & total tax level on cigarette price
59.0%
71.7%
71.2% 71.4%
77.6%17.7%
13.6%
2.7%
1.1% 1.0%
21.2%
-3.0%
2.0%
7.0%
12.0%
17.0%
22.0%
% o
f co
ntr
ab
an
d c
igare
ttes i
n d
uty
paid
sale
s
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
To
tal
tax a
s %
of
Mo
st
Po
pu
lar
Bra
nd
Pri
ce
total tax incidence
% of contraband