June 2020 Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612 USA DomesƟc Lamb Market - Supply/Demand SituaƟon Closing of Mountain States Rosen plant in Colorado throws lamb mar- ket in disarray. While not exactly a surprise, the recent announcement that the MSR plant will stop processing lambs and be converted to a beef processing facility has caused significant uncertainty in the US lamb market. The MSR plant was purchased from JBS in 2015 and it was op- erated by a coop of lamb producers based in the US state of Wyoming. The company went into bankruptcy protecƟon this spring as the collapse in foodservice demand pushed it over the financial cliff. The bankruptcy court accepted a bid from JBS to purchase the plant and media reports now note that lamb slaughter and processing operaƟons will cease at the end of July. The decision is a difficult one for US lamb producers that now wonder where they will get lambs processed. Some have called on US government officials, most recently Vice President Pence, to intervene through the Department of JusƟce and stop the sale to JBS. MSR processed about 360,000 head last year although full capacity is projected as high as 700,000 head per year. Some of the lost capacity may be offset by a new slaughter plant that is coming online shortly. The new plant in Brush, Colorado could have a capacity of about 1,800 per day or about 450,000 per year. But the plant is not opened yet and US sources are not sure how many lambs they will buy from non inves- tors. Also, the new facility will process only carcasses, which will then be shipped to further processors that will fabricate them into retail and foodservice cuts. The facility is expected to run well below rated capaci- ty unƟl next spring, hence the uncertainty/urgency on the part of pro- ducers that produced a crop this spring and need to get those lambs to market. Feedlots conƟnue to limit placements/inventories amid COVID uncer- tainty. Feedlot inventories usually boƩom out in July and August but then increase sharply in the fall as producers move spring lambs into feedlots and get them ready for the year end holidays and eventually for Easter. Feedlot inventories have been lower for much of this year as feedlots remain wary about demand in the second half of the year. The total inventory on feed in Colorado feedlots was esƟmated at just 65,543 head on July 1, 12% lower than a year ago and 17% lower than the five year average. Lamb backs up in freezers as demand takes a hit. The most recent USDA cold storage report noted that the supply of lamb in freezers at the end of June was esƟmated at 46,524 million pounds, 16.2% higher than a year ago and 29% higher than the five year average. This is only the supply in public or semi-private cold storage faciliƟes. There are anec- dotal reports that some large processors also own a significant amount of inventory in their own warehouses, especially inventory of full car- casses, racks and other middle cuts. Monthly US Lamb Market Update July 2020 Issue Prepared Exclusively for Meat & Livestock Australia - Sydney July 30, 2020 COLORADO LAMBS ON FEED. '000 head Monthly Data Reported by the Livestock Market Information Center 50 100 150 200 250 300 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020 LAMB AND MUTTON, COLD STORAGE STOCKS, THOUSAND POUNDS, END OF MONTH INVENTORIES 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC THOUSAND POUNDS LAMB AND MUTTON, COLD STORAGE STOCKS 2015-19 Avg. 2019 2020 Top 10 States for Lamb/Sheep Slaughter in June Source: USDA. Analysis by Steiner Consulting 2019 2020 head head % ch. 1 Colorado 54,000 54,000 0.0% 2 California 24,300 28,500 17.3% 3 Texas 14,800 18,100 22.3% 4 New Jersey 13,700 15,300 11.7% 5 Pennsylvania 6,000 8,400 40.0% 6 Indiana 4,200 6,300 50.0% 7 Ohio 4,100 6,300 53.7% 8 Oregon 3,700 4,500 21.6% 9 Illinois 4,600 4,400 -4.3% 10 New York 3,900 4,200 7.7% Other 42,100 43,400 3.1% Total 175,400 193,400 10.3%
15
Embed
Monthly US Lamb Market Update · 2020-07-30 · Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612 USA Monthly Lamb Market Update Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb:
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
June 2020
Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612
USA Domes c Lamb Market - Supply/Demand Situa on
Closing of Mountain States Rosen plant in Colorado throws lamb mar-ket in disarray. While not exactly a surprise, the recent announcement that the MSR plant will stop processing lambs and be converted to a beef processing facility has caused significant uncertainty in the US lamb market. The MSR plant was purchased from JBS in 2015 and it was op-erated by a coop of lamb producers based in the US state of Wyoming. The company went into bankruptcy protec on this spring as the collapse in foodservice demand pushed it over the financial cliff. The bankruptcy court accepted a bid from JBS to purchase the plant and media reports now note that lamb slaughter and processing opera ons will cease at the end of July. The decision is a difficult one for US lamb producers that now wonder where they will get lambs processed. Some have called on US government officials, most recently Vice President Pence, to intervene through the Department of Jus ce and stop the sale to JBS. MSR processed about 360,000 head last year although full capacity is projected as high as 700,000 head per year. Some of the lost capacity may be offset by a new slaughter plant that is coming online shortly. The new plant in Brush, Colorado could have a capacity of about 1,800 per day or about 450,000 per year. But the plant is not opened yet and US sources are not sure how many lambs they will buy from non inves-tors. Also, the new facility will process only carcasses, which will then be shipped to further processors that will fabricate them into retail and foodservice cuts. The facility is expected to run well below rated capaci-ty un l next spring, hence the uncertainty/urgency on the part of pro-ducers that produced a crop this spring and need to get those lambs to market. Feedlots con nue to limit placements/inventories amid COVID uncer-tainty. Feedlot inventories usually bo om out in July and August but then increase sharply in the fall as producers move spring lambs into feedlots and get them ready for the year end holidays and eventually for Easter. Feedlot inventories have been lower for much of this year as feedlots remain wary about demand in the second half of the year. The total inventory on feed in Colorado feedlots was es mated at just 65,543 head on July 1, 12% lower than a year ago and 17% lower than the five year average. Lamb backs up in freezers as demand takes a hit. The most recent USDA cold storage report noted that the supply of lamb in freezers at the end of June was es mated at 46,524 million pounds, 16.2% higher than a year ago and 29% higher than the five year average. This is only the supply in public or semi-private cold storage facili es. There are anec-dotal reports that some large processors also own a significant amount of inventory in their own warehouses, especially inventory of full car-casses, racks and other middle cuts.
Monthly US Lamb Market Update July 2020 Issue
Prepared Exclusively for Meat & Livestock Australia - Sydney
July 30, 2020
COLORADO LAMBS ON FEED. '000 headMonthly Data Reported by the Livestock Market Information Center
50
100
150
200
250
300
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020
LAMB AND MUTTON, COLD STORAGE STOCKS, THOUSAND POUNDS, END OF MONTH INVENTORIES
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
THOUSANDPOUNDS LAMB AND MUTTON, COLD STORAGE STOCKS
2015-19 Avg. 2019 2020
Top 10 States for Lamb/Sheep Slaughter in JuneSource: USDA. Analys is by Steiner Consulting
2019 2020head head % ch.
1 Colorado 54,000 54,000 0.0%2 California 24,300 28,500 17.3%3 Texas 14,800 18,100 22.3%4 New Jersey 13,700 15,300 11.7%5 Pennsylvania 6,000 8,400 40.0%6 Indiana 4,200 6,300 50.0%7 Ohio 4,100 6,300 53.7%8 Oregon 3,700 4,500 21.6%9 Illinois 4,600 4,400 -4.3%10 New York 3,900 4,200 7.7%
Other 42,100 43,400 3.1%
Total 175,400 193,400 10.3%
June 2020
Page 2
Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612
Imported Lamb Supply and Price Trends
Lamb imports con nued to dri lower in July, with imports from New Zealand pos ng big declines. Weekly import data con nues to show a slowdown in product coming from Austral-ia and New Zealand. Weekly imports in the four weeks ending July 18 averaged 1,218 MT/week, 25% lower than a year ago. Imports from New Zealand during this period were an average of 270 MT/wk, down 50% from the same four week period a year ago. Imports from Australia at an average of 927 MT/week were 14% lower than the same period last week. Im-ports from other markets remain limited although we have noted some product coming from Chile and Mexico in the last two weeks. For the week ending July 18 imports from Chile were 34 MT, the highest import week since mid May while imports from Mexico were 28 MT. Imports from Australia should start to improve, however as June exports to the US market showed a notable improvement. According to MAFF data, Australian lamb exports to the US last month were 4,525 MT, 651 MT or 17% higher than the previous year. Exports to the West Coast were up 32% from a year ago. Australian ex-ports to the US increased even as total Australian lamb imports for the month were down 4% from a year ago. Mu on and goat imports also down in late June and July. Imports for both products have slowdown down significantly. Most mu on imports are coming from Australia and USDA not-ed a sharp decline in recent weeks. Weekly imports for the four weeks ending July 18 averaged 82 MT/wk, down 74% from the same four week period a year ago. Goat imports were also sharply lower. Total imports of goat meat for the four week reference period were an average of 94 MT per week, down 65% compared to a year ago. Imports from Australia averaged 93 MT per week down 57% while imports from New Zealand and Mexico remain minimal. Prices for imported retail cuts remain firm but racks and other middles struggle. The table on page 6 offers a complete sum-mary of prices for fresh/frozen imported lamb cuts. A few highlights: • Prices for racks remain well below year ago levels. Fresh
Australian racks are down as much as 30% from a year ago. On the other hand, the price of shoulders is up 22% from last year and the price of semi boneless fresh legs is up 18% from last year.
• Frozen racks are also down between 27% and 30% from a year ago. Frozen leg prices are up 7% compared to last year and frozen square cut Australian shoulder prices are up 6%.
Please note that the prices, volume and sales value reported above represents only subset of total US lamb imports. It only reflects the data reported through the Mandatory Price Repor ng System. It is only for nego ated sales, no formula sales. Trade from smaller importers and traders is not included in the summary above. Data that does not meet the confiden ality guidelines also is not included in the above table.
June 2020
Page 7
Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612
$ Value of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: World TotalSource: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg
June 2020
Page 12
Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612
USA Monthly Lamb Market Update
Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: New Zealand(*)Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg
TOP US LAMB IMPORT MARKETS IN 2020 TOP US LAMB IMPORT MARKETS IN 2019Total Volume and Country Shares for Period Jan - May 2020, MT Total Volume and Country Shares for Period Jan - May 2019, MT
New Zealand
22%
Australia77%
Other1%
Metric Tons
New Zealand
15%
Australia84%
Other1%
59K70KMetric Tons
Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: Australia(*)Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg
$ Value of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: Australia(*)Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)
-
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg
$ Value of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: New Zealand(*)Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg
June 2020
Page 13
Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612
USA Monthly Lamb Market Update
1942: 56,213
1960: 33,170
1990: 11,358
2012: 5,375
2020: 5,200 0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
JANUARY 1 US SHEEP & LAMB INVENTORYSource: USDA 000 HEAD
Lamb and Sheep Inventory According to the 2017 Census of Agriculture Source: USDA-NASS
June 2020
Page 14
Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612
USA Monthly Lamb Market Update
June 2020
Page 15
Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612