MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY AND MARKETS MONITORING REPORT 25 November 2021 October 2021 WFP/Tatenda Macheka The start of lean season is marked by a deterioration of food security for both rural and urban households, with Matebeleland North and Manicaland provinces reporting the highest increase in inadequate food consumption. Prices of basic food commodities in ZWL terms rose by 9% between September and October and by 47% from a year ago, reflecting continuing inflationary pressures on the economy. Meanwhile, the rainy season and main agricultural seasons have started, with land preparation ongoing. This is expected to increase casual labour opportunities for vulnerable households that earn the majority of their income from the informal sector.
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MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY AND MARKETS MONITORING REPORT
25 November 2021
October 2021
WFP/Tatenda Macheka
The start of lean season is marked by a deterioration of food security for
both rural and urban households, with Matebeleland North and Manicaland
provinces reporting the highest increase in inadequate food consumption.
Prices of basic food commodities in ZWL terms rose by 9% between
September and October and by 47% from a year ago, reflecting continuing
inflationary pressures on the economy. Meanwhile, the rainy season and
main agricultural seasons have started, with land preparation ongoing. This
is expected to increase casual labour opportunities for vulnerable
households that earn the majority of their income from the informal sector.
The COVID-19 situation in the country continued to improve leading to the government relaxing most restrictive measures in early September, which enabled households to resume livelihood activities. Although vaccination rates have reduced, they still remain among the highest in Africa.
Central parts of the country received significant amounts of rainfall. Meanwhile, northern and the southern
parts of the country are yet to receive significant rainfall amounts; effective rains in these parts are expected to
start in December.
Annual inflation was pegged at 54% in October, which is a marginal increase from 52% recorded in September
2021. Meanwhile, month-on-month inflation increased from 5% to 6%, and monthly food inflation increased
from 5% to 8%.
During the month of October, the estimated number of people with insufficient food consumption increased by 100,000 to reach 5.9 million. The number of people employing crisis and above coping strategies also increased to 8.9 million people compared to 8.53 million at the end of September 2021. These findings are typical at the start of the lean season, when households begin to deplete their own food stocks and increase reliance on markets.
Maize grain availability remained low - the commodity was reported as available in only 7% of the rural markets and 6% of the urban markets. While low market availability is typical at this time of the year, it has been further limited due to centralised marketing by government through the Grain Marketing Board (GMB). Market supply of maize meal reported in October was typical for this time of the year and the commodity was generally available in most monitored urban markets (88%), while in rural areas the commodity was reported available in 33% of monitored markets—which is a 16% decrease from the previous month.
Sugar beans market supply remained generally stable, the commodity was available in 64% of rural markets and in 86% of monitored urban markets. Availability of vegetable oil remained high and stable with the commodity available in 94% of the rural markets and 92% of urban markets. Rice, salt and sugar remained available in almost all the markets monitored, and Kapenta was available in an average 69% of the markets.
In local currency (ZWL) terms, there was a general price increase for all commodities during the month under review - a confirmation of the rising inflation. Compared to September, prices in ZWL terms increased for all monitored commodities by an average of 9%, and when compared to the same time last year (October 2020) prices increased by an average of 47%.
Average USD prices for maize grain, maize meal and vegetable oil remained stable in comparison to September, while that of sugar beans increased by 10%. The US$ price for rice, kapenta and sugar decreased by 5% for both rural and urban markets, while salt prices increased by 17%.
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The COVID situation in the country continued to improve with the average daily cases decreasing to about 70 confirmed new cases compared to around 178 in September 2021. The cumulative confirmed cases were 132,977 as at 31 October from 130,820 at the end of September representing 2,157 confirmed new cases during the month of October. The confirmed number of deaths in October decreased by 66% from 185 reported in September 2021 to 62 in October bringing the cumulative number of confirmed deaths to 4,678 (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/zimbabwe/).
Figure 1: Confirmed daily new cases and 7 day moving average for Zimbabwe (15 Feb 2020 to 5 October 2021)
Source: www.worldometers.info
At the end of the month under review, 18% of the population had been fully vaccinated bringing the total number of people who received both doses to 2.63 million compared to 2.33 million at the end of September 2021. An additional 4.7% of the population had received one dose at the end of the period under review. Although vaccination rates have reduced compared to previous months, they still remain among the highest in Africa. The government announced that it was considering to make vaccination a requirement for employment by any government department with some private companies and organisations following suit. However, human rights groups expressed concerns that it could be a violation of people’s freedom and rights. Government eased most COVID-19 restrictions from level 4 (higher and more strict level which limit movements to only those that are essential with proof) to level 2 (lower and more relaxed level which allow for movement during specified hours while observing COVID-19 health regulations like social distancing and wearing of masks) as COVID-19 infections and deaths reduced from the peak in July. Indications are level 2 restrictions will remain in place till the end of the year as a measure to control spread of the disease. The relaxation of restrictions is likely to improve household access to livelihood activities although it takes longer for the vulnerable households to recover from the impacts of Covid-19. This is more likely for the urban poor who rely on largely informal activities for incomes.
Zimbabwe continues to operate in a volatile economic environment leading to increasing vulnerability levels for households in both urban and rural areas. The annual inflation in the local currency (ZWL) increased marginally from 51.6% in September to 54.5% in October 2021 (Figure 2), which remains high despite the gradual deceleration observed since October 2020. Non-food monthly inflation increased from 5% in September to 6% in October 2021, and monthly food inflation increased from 5% to 8% during the same time period. In line with this, the Food Poverty Line (FPL) increased by 7.6% to ZWL5,092 in October 2021, subsequently the Total Consumption Poverty Line (TCPL) that represents how much an individual requires for both food and non-food items to meet their basic needs, was pegged at ZWL7,118 per person, from ZWL6,653.65 in September 2021. Figure 2: Zimbabwe Inflation Trends (2020 – 2021)
Source: ZIMSTAT
The ZWL continued to lose value against major currencies during the month under review. On the official exchange market, the ZWL lost 12% against the US$ closing at ZWL97.14/US$ and traded at ZWL175/US$ on the parallel market which is comparable to rates at the end of August 2021 (Figure 3). Traders are reported to pegging prices using the parallel market exchange rate, which has been on a rapid upward trajectory over the last month. Government through the central bank has put in place regulations aimed at curbing the black market. Figure 3: Zimbabwe Exchange Rates (USD: ZWL)
Source: RBZ/www.zimrates.com
2. Macro-Economic Situation Update
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The WFP HungerMap LIVE monitoring platform collects weekly household data through mobile surveys on a number of indicators including food consumption and coping patterns, market access and impacts of COVID-19 on livelihoods and income sources. The findings of this remote monitoring are summarised in a live hunger map and weekly snapshots (https://hungermap.wfp.org/). During the month under review, an estimated 5.9 million people reported insufficient food consumption representing a 3% increase from 5.7 million estimated during the last week of September 2021. Additionally, the number of people estimated to be using crisis or above crisis food-based coping increased from 8.53 million people in September to an estimated 8.9 million at the end of October 2021. These findings are typical at the start of the lean season when more households rely more on the market.
According to the HungerMap LIVE monitoring platform for Zimbabwe, in September only Matabeleland North province was estimated to have ‘very high’ (>40%) prevalence of insufficient food consumption, while in October Manicaland and Matabeleland North provinces were estimated to have very high prevalence (Figure 5). This indicates a worsening food security situation in Manicaland, likely as a result of households food stocks depleting due to poor production during the 2020/2021 agricultural season by communal households; a significant proportion of agricultural production in the province is based on large commercial farming. On the other hand, the situation in Matabeleland South was reported to have improved compared to the last week of September, which could be partially attributed to the start of the lean season assistance by WFP and partners during the month of October. With the start of the rainfall and main agriculture seasons, increased availability of agricultural-related casual labour opportunities could be reported (estimated around 25% by Rural ZimVAC 2021). The availability of indigenous vegetables and fruits is also likely to increase. However, because most vulnerable households begin to exhaust food stocks from own production and increasingly rely on the market, the food security situation is likely to deteriorate in the coming months through the end of peak lean season in March. According to Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) IPC compatible analysis, most vulnerable households are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes whilst those worst-affected are starting to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Most surplus-producing areas are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes mainly in the more productive A1 and A2 resettlement areas or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in areas that recorded relatively low production, such as communal farming areas. Urban areas are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as poor households access to food and non-food items is poor due to low stagnant incomes against rising prices.
Figure 4: Number of people with insufficient food
consumption
Figure 5: Prevalence of insufficient food consumption
Districts in the central part of the country received significant rains during the month of October, while the
southern and northern parts are yet to receive significant rains—effective rains in these parts are expected to start
in December (Figure 6). Precipitation however, remains below normal in most parts of the country except for
pockets in the west, which have experienced normal to above normal precipitation (Figure 7).
Most households have started land preparation for the 2021-22 agricultural season. Planting has not yet started, except for those with gardens where crops such as maize, sweet potato and sugar beans are reported to have been planted. These crops are normally used to bridge the food gap before harvest, providing a variety of green produce. Land preparation has been complemented by training on conversation agriculture and other farming essentials by extension workers given government is expanding the Pfumvudza project to everyone living in communal areas except those on the command agriculture scheme. Given the highly volatile economic environment that has constrained incomes, Pfumvudza is expected to improve access to inputs for rural households.
Water availability is generally above normal across the country ensuring sufficient water supply for domestic, livestock, and livelihood uses. Livestock is in fair to good condition with adequate feed although access to veterinary drugs remains a challenge.
4. Progression of the 2021/22 Rainfall Season
Figure 6: Accumulated Rainfall in mm as from 1 Octo-ber 2021 to 03 November 2021.
Figure 7: Percentage of normal rainfall received for the time of year as from 01 October 2021 to 03 November 2021.
Source: Meteorological Department
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5. Market Performance Update
This section provides a summary of major food commodities availability and prices for rural and urban markets, covering maize grain, maize meal, sugar beans and vegetable oil, as well as fuel. Table 1 shows the national summary of availability and prices for the four commodities over the month of October 2021.
Table 1: Supply and price trends for food basket commodities in rural and urban markets, August 2021
The price for diesel on 8 October 2021 in ZWL was up by 10% selling at an average price of ZWL136.44/L, while the price of petrol went up by 13% selling at ZWL138.70/L when compared to prices same time in September. The price in US$ was unchanged at US$1.38/L and US$1.40/L, for diesel and petrol respectively.
Food Commodity Prices in Foreign Currency (US$ terms)
Non-Food Commodities: Laundry and bathing soap were both available in 90% and 92% of the monitored markets respectively, which is similar to the previous month. Laundry soap was selling at an average price of ZWL190.58/bar, a 13% increase from September (ZWL168.35bar); the USD price increased by 9% to the current price of at $1.48/bar. Bathing soap price increased from an average of by 5% to ZWL90.82/250g while the US$ price remained unchanged at US$0.69/250g .
Maize Grain Maize meal Sugar beans Vegetable Oil
Supply
Maize grain was available in 7% of the monitored rural districts and in 6% of the urban markets monitored which is similar to September 2021.
Maize meal was available in 33% of rural markets; and in 88% of the urban markets which is a 16% decrease in rural and 2% reduction in urban.
Sugar beans was available in 64% down from 69% of rural markets and in 86% of urban markets similar to 85% In September.
Availability of vegetable oil remained high with the commodity available in 94% of the rural markets a decrease of 5% compared to September and 92% of urban markets which is similar to last month.
Price
Maize grain in the rural markets was selling at an average of ZWL38.89/kg in the 2 districts where it was available and, remained stable in urban markets when compared to September 2021 at an average ZWL33.08/kg.
The price of maize meal increased by 7% from ZWL59.59/kg to ZWL63.89/kg in rural markets and increased by 5% to ZWL59.04/kg in urban markets from an average of ZWL56.51/kg.
Prices of sugar beans increased marginally from ZWL319.60 /kg to ZWL 329.23/kg in rural markets and in urban markets from ZWL280.56/kg to ZWL298.60/kg compared to September 2021.
Prices of vegetable oil increased by 15% from ZWL284.05/L to ZWL246.62/L in rural markets and by 5% from ZWL256.24/L to ZWL269.75/L in urban markets.
The average price for maize grain was US$0.23/kg in October, which is comparable to US$0.24/kg reported in September 2021 and 28% lower than a year ago in October 2020 (US$0.32/kg). The price of maize meal was US$0.47/kg similar to last month and the same period in October 2020. Sugar beans was selling at an average price of US$2.33/kg, which is comparable to US$2.30/kg reported in September 2021 and 10% higher than US$2.11/kg reported in October 2020 (Figure 8). Vegetable oil price decreased slightly at an average of US$1.89/L from last month’s average price of US$1.95/kg and 29% higher than October 2020 (US$1.51/L).
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Rural markets – review of availability and prices in Zimbabwe dollars (ZWL)
Maize grain was available in 7% of the monitored markets in two district with lower than typical stocks available on the formal market held by both local farmers and traders. This however was attributed to the fact that maize grain market had gone underground due to policies on the sale of grain that were enacted in the past which made the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) the sole buyer of these commodities. However some of the policies are no longer in force but farmers are no longer confident to openly sale their grain on the market. Additionally there is a ban on maize grain imports and the typical movement of grain from surplus-producing areas to deficit-producing areas has been largely constricted.
The more remote markets in deficit areas had little to no stocks at all. Where available the commodity was selling at an average price of ZWL29.06/kg from ZWL38.89/kg in September 2021 (Figure 7).
Unrefined maize meal availability decreased by 16% being available in 33% of the monitored markets in October compared to 49% reported in September 2021. The steep decreasing requires further monitoring to better understand the situation but however might be as a result of restrictions on grain procurement and delays in the formal supply channels.
The average price of maize meal recorded a slight increase from ZWL59.59/kg in September to ZWL63.89/kg in October (Figure 8).
Sugar beans availability decreased from 69% in September to 64% in October 2021. The decrease is likely a result of government regulations noted above. However, the low availability is likely to continue seeing moderate availability given most sugar beans available on the market is sourced from local packaging and distribution companies. However the situation requires further investigation to fully understand the ongoing market dynamics.
The average price for the commodity in October 2021 was ZWL329.23/kg which is marginally higher than ZWL319.60/kg recorded last month (Figure 9). Markets in Matebelands were only selling the commodity in Rands at an average price of R37.16/kg. When purchasing the commodity using mobile money consumers paid on average 19% more. remiums were higher in Mudzi where consumers paid 37% more for the commodity.
Vegetable oil availability slightly decreased during the month under review, being available in 94% of the markets compared to 99% in September 2021. The commodity was selling at an average price of ZWL284.05/L which is a 15% increase from ZWL246.62/L in September 2021 (Figure 10). For more district level information, see annex 3,5,7 and 9.
Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
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Figure 10: Maize meal week on week price (Rural), 2021
Figure 9: Maize Grain week on week price (Rural), 2020/21
ZWL Cash ZWL Mobile Money 6 month average
Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
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Urban markets – review of availability and prices in Zimbabwe dollars (ZWL)
Maize grain was available in 6% of the monitored markets, same as last month. Availability was mostly in cereal deficit areas although low availability is typical in urban areas where most households rely on maize meal.
Maize grain was selling at an average price of ZWL33.08/kg—which is similar to ZWL32.17/kg reported in September (Figure 11). Districts in the far north and far south of the country such as Kariba (ZWL38.89/kg) and Chiredzi (ZWL44.45/kg) continue to record the highest prices while districts in the Mashonaland’s (traditionally surplus areas) recorded the lowest prices (annex 2). Unrefined maize meal was available in at least one market in all monitored urban domains and was available on 88% of the markets compared to 86% last month. See annex 4 for more district level information.
The average price of maize meal in urban markets increased by 5% for September 2021 at ZWL59.04/kg. The highest price was recorded in Kariba at ZWL71.40/kg, high prices here were likely demand driven given Kariba also recorded poor market availability at 44%. Sugar beans availability remained stable during the reporting period; the commodity was available across all urban districts on 86% of the monitored markets, see annex 6. The average price for sugar beans in urban markets in October was ZWL298.60/kg, which is 6% higher than ZWL280.56/kg reported in September (Figure 13). The highest price was reported in Kariba urban at ZWL398.67/kg and lowest in Gokwe South urban at ZWL265.22/kg. Vegetable oil supply remained high across all urban domains and the commodity was reported available in 92% of monitored markets which is comparable to 90% reported in September 2021. The average price of vegetable oil increased from ZWL256.24/L last month to the current price of ZWL269.75/kg (Figure 14). The highest price which was recorded in Chegutu was 11% higher than the average price while the lowest recorded price which was in Harare was 13% lower than the average price (annex 8). Most vegetable oil manufacturers are in Harare hence the continued low prices in the district due to lower supply chain costs.
Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
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Figure 14: Maize Meal week on week price (Urban), 2021
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Figure 15: Sugar beans week on week price (Urban), 2021
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Figure 16: Vegetable oil week on week price (Urban), 2021
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Figure 13: Maize grain week on week price (Urban), 2021
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Other Basic Food Commodities
In addition to the 4 WFP basket commodities, monitoring is also conducted for rice, salt, sugar and kapenta. Rice and Salt were available in all the monitored markets while availability of sugar and kapenta increased by 2% and 3% in urban areas and a decrease of 1% and 29% respectively in rural markets. Generally prices increased for all commodities with higher price increases reported in rural compared to urban markets.
Table 2: Availability and prices for rice, salt, sugar and kapenta
Source: WFP and Partners Harmonised Markets Monitoring
The ZWL price of rice increased by 20% and 10% for rural and urban markets respectively. The US$ price for kapenta decreased by 2% and 7% in rural and urban markets respectively in comparison to September 2021 (Table 2). In ZWL terms, the price increased by an average of 7% and 1% for both rural and urban markets.
The price of salt in ZWL increased by 26% in rural markets and 7% for urban markets while the price of sugar increased by 14% and 11% in rural and urban markets respectively (Table 2).
Annex 1: Markets Monitoring Background and Methodology
Markets Sample and data collection: This report provides an update on the availability and prices of WFP food basket commodities. Data for this reporting period was collected between 1-19 October 2021 and is based on interviews with 777 traders, including 199 in rural districts and 578 in urban districts, across 28 districts/domains (7 rural and 21 urban); 54% of the interviews were conducted remotely whilst 46% were face-to-face. The number of rural districts monitored is only limited to those districts where WFP is implementing FFA activities as well as the urban programme districts. Checking Availability at market level: If any of the interviewed traders in a market reports having sold a commodity within the last week, the commodity is considered available in this market. Availability at country-level (district-level) is calculated as the share of markets with commodity availability across the country (across districts). Missing data indicate that none of the interviewed traders generally trades the commodity. The harmonised weekly market monitoring is being conducted by WFP in partnership with members of the Cash Assistance Working Group (CWG), including World Vision International, CARE, Oxfam, Aquaculture Zimbabwe, Caritas Zimbabwe, Christian Aid, GOAL Zimbabwe, HOCIC, Mercy Corps, IRC, ORAP, Zimbabwe Red Cross Society, Action Aid, LEAD, LGDA, CAFOD, AfriCare, CTDO, ADRA, MDTC, Plan International and WeEffect.
Disclaimer
We document exchange rates on the various markets for research purposes only. We do not encourage black market activities in any way whatsoever. The rates that we display are not our own, they are an aggregation of rates we see displayed on various online mediums.