Final Version 1 | Public Monitoring communication impact: tools and public perceptions of nuclear energy Robert Knight, Ipsos MORI Technical meeting on stakeholder involvement in nuclear power, Vienna, October 2012
Final Version 1 | Public
Monitoring communication impact: tools and public
perceptions of nuclear energy
Robert Knight, Ipsos MORI Technical meeting on stakeholder involvement in nuclear power, Vienna, October 2012
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Final Version 1 | Public © Ipsos MORI
Agenda
• Measuring public attitudes and
the opinion environment
• Exploring the underlying issues
• Considering opinion-forming
stakeholders
• Into cyberspace
Measuring public attitudes
and the opinion
environment
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Global reaction to Fukushima – April 2011 global online survey
38 62
54
56
46
44
honestly
on a timely basis
Agree Disagree
Based on what you know, do you think Japanese officials and their government leaders communicated the nature and impact of the mishap to the Japanese people and others . . . .*
Base: 18,787 adults aged 18-64 (in US and Canada), 16-64 (in rest of world) in 24 countries online. 6-12 April 2011
*Base: All seen, read or heard about Fukushima
Support/oppose nuclear energy as a
way of producing electricity
Support Oppose
Among opposers, 26% took this view as
a direct result of Fukushima (16% of all interviewed )
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-2-2
-14-16
-18-18
-20-20-20-20
-24-24
-26-32-32
-34-36
-42-44
-58-62
-64
+22+14
+4
IndiaPoland
USAGreat Britain
SwedenSaudi Arabia
ChinaHungary
JapanBelgium
South AfricaSouth Korea
SpainRussia
CanadaAustralia
FranceIndonesia
BrazilTurkey
ArgentinaGermany
ItalyMexico
Net support for nuclear energy by country at height of
Fukushima crisis – April 2011
Base: 18,787 adults aged 18-64 (in US and Canada), 16-64 (in rest of world) in 24 countries online. 6-12 April 2011
Net support
Global figure
Net opposition
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96%
93%
91%
79%
48%
45%
4%
7%
9%
21%
52%
55%
Solar power
Wind power
Hydroelectric
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear energy
Global support for energy sources September 2012 – change
since Fukushima
Base: 18,680 adults aged 18-64 (in US and Canada), 16-64 (in rest of world) in 24 countries online.
4-18 September 2012
Support
Change from
April 2011
+1 -1
0 0
0 0
+1 -1
0 0
-7 +7
Oppose
Change from
April 2011
Q. Please indicate whether you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose each way of producing electricity:
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75%66%
59%59%59%
53%52%50%49%47%46%45%42%42%41%41%40%38%37%37%36%
29%29%26%26%
25%34%
41%41%41%
47%48%50%51%53%54%55%58%58%59%59%60%62%63%63%64%
71%71%74%74%
IndiaUSA
ChinaGreat BritainSaudi Arabia
PolandSwedenFrance
South KoreaHungaryBelgium
AustraliaCanada
IndonesiaSouth Africa
RussiaTurkeyBrazilSpainJapan
ArgentinaItaly
GermanyMexico
Support/opposition to nuclear energy by country September
2012
Global figure
Support Oppose
Q. Please indicate whether you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose each way of producing electricity: nuclear energy
Base: 18,680 adults aged 18-64 (in US and Canada), 16-64 (in rest of world) in 24 countries online.
4-18 September 2012
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+36+34
+32+32
+28+20+20
+18+18
+16+16+16
+14+12+12
+10+10+10
+6+4
+2+2
-6-8
-10
USAChina
Saudi ArabiaFrance
IndiaGreat Britain
ItalySouth Korea
TurkeyAustralia
IndonesiaMexico
HungaryBelgiumCanada
BrazilGermanySwedenRussia
South AfricaArgentina
SpainPolandJapan
Degree of improvement in net support since Fukushima,
by country
Base: 18,680 adults aged 18-64 (in US and Canada), 16-64 (in rest of world) in 24 countries online.
4-18 September 2012
Change in net support for nuclear energy
April 2011 – September 2012
Global figure
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Base: All British adults c1,000-2,000
Face-to-face interviews
Support Oppose
Q To what extent would you support or oppose the building of new nuclear power stations in Britain TO REPLACE those that are being phased out over the next few years? This would ensure the same proportion of nuclear energy is retained ie 18%.
Face-to-face survey by Ipsos MORI in the UK showed significant fall in support for nuclear newbuild
* Wording in 2001 was “To what extent would you support or oppose
the building of new nuclear power stations in Britain?”
19%
47%
36%
50%
20%
FUKUSHIMA
28%
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Base: All British adults c1,000-2,000
Face-to-face interviews
Support Oppose
Q To what extent would you support or oppose the building of new nuclear power stations in Britain TO REPLACE those that are being phased out over the next few years? This would ensure the same proportion of nuclear energy is retained ie 18%.
By end of 2011 British support had recovered and reached a new high point of 50%
* Wording in 2001 was “To what extent would you support or oppose
the building of new nuclear power stations in Britain?”
19%
47%
36%
50%
20%
FUKUSHIMA
28%
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It is vital that your research has credibility and integrity
• Understand the limitations of methodology
• Compare like with like
• Research should be independent and professionally
executed with best practice in questionnaire design
• Use a respected research organisation with a track
record in publishing public opinion data and
recognised quality accreditation such as ISO 20252
Exploring the underlying
issues
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Qualitative exploration of underlying attitudes
Familiarity is key issue:
Lower among women
Information vacuum reduces trust; encourages false fears
Men have more faith in scientific solutions. More likely to seek information on nuclear issues
Women more averse to risk and have long term perspectives
Communication to women needs to build familiarity, reassure and break down misconceptions
OUTCOMES
CASE STUDY: Women’s attitudes to nuclear
energy, for Nuclear Industry Association 2009
Unstructured in-depth
discussion
Exploring beliefs and
values
Valuable guide to
messages, channels, tone,
language etc
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The deliberative approach
Simulation of decision making in a
rigorous research environment
Delivers real insight into what
communication can achieve
CASE STUDY: deliberative forum of
people neutral to or undecided about
support for nuclear power
Subjected to powerful pro and anti
nuclear views in one-day event
Monitored throughout for
reactions and attitude change
Showed basic tendency to
become more positive
Considering opinion-
forming stakeholders
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What is a “stakeholder” of the nuclear industry?
Anybody who can influence, or
who is affected by, the industry
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The first task is to build a stakeholder map
UK energy industry
MEDIA
INDUSTRY
INSIDERS
INDUSTRY
OUTSIDERS
SCIENTIFIC/
ACADEMIC
FINANCIAL
COMMUNITY
LOCAL COMMUNITIES
REGULATORY
POLITICAL
NGOs/PRESSURE GROUPS
Greenpeace
FOE EIUG
MEUC Green
Alliance WWF
EST
Carbon
Trust
RIBA WI
Ofgem
DECC
DEFRA
Environment
Agency
HSE
UKTI
Crown
Estates
Regional
Development
Agencies
Ministers
Select
Committees
Gov’t
MPs
Key
Peers
Welsh
Assembly
Key
Advisors
Opposition
MPs
Local
Authorities Scottish
Parliament
News
media
Specialist
media
Local
media
Local Pressure
Groups
Residential
Neighbours
Local
Opinion
Formers
Inst.
Investors
Analysts
Financial
Media
Private
Investors
UKERA Warwick
Uni.
East Anglia
Uni.
Cambridge
Uni.
Sussex
Uni.
Dalton
Business
School
Southampton
Uni.
CBI
British Chambers
Of Commerce
COGENT
PÖYRY
OXERA
BITC
OFWAT
ERA
ENA
ERP
Renewable UK
AEP NIA
Renewable
Energy
Assoc.
Peers/
Competitors ACE
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Opinion former research uses small, high quality samples
and requires special expertise
E.ON UK
Opinion Leader
Survey 2010
(139 interviews)
Content:
National policy issues
Support for energy sources
E.ON’s reputation
E.ON’s communications
Civil servants/
regulators
(13)
Members of
UK Parliament
(20)
NGOs
(25)
Financial
analysts
(12)
Journalists
(41)
Influential
Individuals
(28)
Trained telephone
interviewing team
Proven contact process
and incentive structure
Well known research
organisation
Establish importance of
the survey to national
policy issues
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Focus groups with top opinion formers
Politicians, heads of trade associations,
professors, journalists, NGO directors,
financial analysts, senior civil servants...
It is possible!
Private dinner group in prestigious
landmark venue
Guarantee high status participants
Pursue them relentlessly to ensure they
attend on the evening in question
“Chatham House rule”
Interpret outcomes carefully
Into cyberspace
Social media is growing
In the UK:
79% are now online
44% visited a social networking site
in the last three months
44% Use Facebook
44% Use You Tube
13% Use Twitter
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Ipsos MORI’s Reputation Council and Social Media
91% of senior
communicators think
social media has a
direct impact on
reputation and licence
to operate
Based on August-September 2012 conversations with 45 Directors of Communications
in Europe and the Americas
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What can we monitor from “internet buzz”?
• Volumes of mentions (of the
industry or specific issues)
• Sentiment analysis (are
comments positive or negative?)
• Sources of conversations
(website type, or drill down to
individual sites, individual
contributors)
• Sources of conversations by
country (and by language)
• Main themes of conversations, by
country
• Interpret what and who is driving
the peaks in activity
CASE STUDY: Nuclear energy
pre, post and during
Fukushima incident
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0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Volume of mentions about nuclear energy – Jan 2011-Sept 2012
Number of mentions
Fukushima incident has only a temporary effect on volume of mentions.
“As a result of the disaster at
Fukushima, I am no longer
nuclear-neutral. I now support
the technology.”
The start of George
Monbiot’s infamous article in
the Guardian
16m followers
400k followers
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Blog Forum Facebook News Twitter Video
Mentions of nuclear energy by day in March 2011, with sources
Earthquake and
Tsunami strikes
Unit 1 explodes
Unit 3 explodes
Unit 2 explodes
MARCH 2011
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Safety has become the main issue following the incident
15 18
11 10
19
5
22
5
17
7
42
12
8 5
7
12
17 15
13
3
38
24
14 14 12 11
9 9 8
1 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Safety Generalpro-nuclear
Technology Generalanti-nuclear
Comparisonto fossil
fuels
Internationalrelations
Efficiency Cost Wastedisposal
Nuclearweapons
Pe
rcen
tage
Topic areas; what people are talking about online
Pre-Fukushima During crisis (June 2011) Present day
Based on a random selection of 100 verbatim mentions from each time period. Pre-Fukushima (11 February 2011 –
10 March 2011), During crisis (1 June 2011 – 30 June 2011), Present day (1 September 2012 – 29 September 2012)
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Some final
thoughts on
monitoring
communication
impacts
• Identify and prioritise your
stakeholders. Maximise your budget
• Conduct professional and
independent research, with
appropriate techniques
• Understand the underlying drivers
of opinion – what really matters?
• Don’t forget the internet: it will grow
in importance
Thank you
Robert Knight, Ipsos MORI ([email protected]) +44 (0) 207 347 3082