Monique Hoogwijk 9 November 2006 Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions.

Monique Hoogwijk

9 November 2006

Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions


Wind energy potential

What determines the potential of wind energy?- Wind resource (m/s), Load Factor; - Area availability (km2);- Power density of wind park (MW/km2);

Potential = Power Density * Available Area * Load Factor


Wind electricity costsCosts;

– Isp turbine (f(Rated power);

– O & M;

– Installation costs;

– Overhead costs (concession, Environmental Impact Assessment);

– Distribution costs (not included);

– Grid integrated costs (back up, spinning reserve, discarded/storage costs) (not included);

Output; – Wind resource, rated power

Annuity;– Interest rate

– Economic lifetime turbine


Technical Parameters

• Rated power • Hub height• (Rotor diameter)• Power density• Current installed turbines and replacement rate

• Onshore and offshore• For 2006; 2020 and 2030

+ wind speed = load factor


Historical Development

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005year

Avg

rat

ed p

ower

win

d tu

rbin

es

(kW

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Est

imat

ed r

otor

dia

mte

rs (

m)rated power

rotor diameter


Overview Offshore Projects

Source: Van Hulle et al., 2004.

Name project

Country Wind farm areakm2

Nr of WT

WT rated powerMW

Power density MW/km2

WT rotor diameter m

Horns Rev

DK 20 80 2 8 80

Roedsand DK 23 72 2.3 7 82.4

C-power BE 14 60 3.6 15 104

DOWEC NL 45 80 6 11 129

North Hoyle

UK 5.4 30 2 11 80


Proposal Assumptions

onshore offshore

Current average

Future (2030)

Current average

Future (2030)

Rated power (MW) 1.5 2 2-6 10

Rotor diameter (m) 60-80 80 80-129 150

Hub height (m) 80 80 150


Cost Parameters

• Main investment costs• Turbine costs

• Foundation

• Electric installation

• Grid-connection

• Consultancy

• Land costs

• Financial costs, as security

• Road construction

• Main Operation and maintenance costs


Onshore Offshore b

Share total investment costs (%)

Total investment costs (€/kW) 800 – 1100 1200 – 2000

Turbine 74-82 30-50

Foundation 1-6 15-25

Electric installation 1-9 0-30

Grid-connection 2-9 15-30

Consultancy, land, 1-3 8

Land 1-3

Financial costs 1-5

Road construction 1-5

others 8EWEA, 2003; Junginger, 2005 ; ECN, 2004


Cost developments over time

• Bottom up estimates

– up-scaling

– material

– rotor diameter

– etc

• Experience curves

– Historically derived

– Progress ratio and future doubling


Onshore Experience Curves

Cumulative global installed onshore wind capacity (MW)

1000 2000 5000 10000 20000 30000

Tu

rnke

y in

sta

llatio

n p

rice

(Eu

ro(2

00

1)/k

W)

700

800

900

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2500

Turnkey prices large wind farms Turnkey prices small wind farms

PR = 81% R2 = 0.978

PR = 82% R2 = 0.875

1990

1998

1992

2001

Source: Junginger, PhD thesis 2005


Cost reductions Offshore

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Inv

es

tme

nt

co

sts

(E

uro

(20

01

)/k

W)

Wind turbine Foundation Int. grid Ext. grid Installation Other

Left bar: cost in 2003. Middle bar: Sustained diffusion. Right bar: Stagnating growth.

Ref. wind farm

73%

63%

74%76%

61% 64%

Wind farmlong distance

Wind farmOWECOP

Source: Junginger, Faaij & Turkenburg, 2003, Accepted for publication by Wind Engineering


Operation and Maintenance

• Insurance, service and spare parts, land rent etc• Varies during lifetime 2-3 % up to 5% of

investment costs ( ~ 1 ¢/kWh).• O&M costs can be reduced over time• Here, reduction assumed with investment cost

reduction


Future Developments

• Typical Progress Ratios wind turbines: 80 – 90%• 7 – 35% reduction of capital costs (71 - 300 GW).• For offshore: Bottom up estimates: up to 40%

reduction in 2020.

Please note the global developments are not

included in experience curve

Sources: EWEA, 2006; Junginger, 2005, Neij et al., 2005


Sensitivity Analysis; examples

• Rated power and load factor• Replacement rate• Power density• Specific Investment costs

• Area availability• Land use variation• Urban planning


Not Included in Technical Potential

• Land pattern change over time• Implementation in grid over time• Possibly limited approach on replacement• System cost reductions e.g. combination grid

connection offshore


Thank you

[email protected]

Monique Hoogwijk 9 November 2006 Technical Wind Energy Potential in Europe: Main Assumptions.

Documents

potential of wind energy

wind engineering slide

wind speed

main assumptions operation

maintenance costs

discardedstorage costs

om costs

output wind resource