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O 1179. 173 2007 9 , 11.1 , 2007 5 , 2007 15.1 10 10.1 . 2007 6, 7 6.3, 7.1 8 11.3 15.1 . . , , , , , . . , , , , , . 2006 10 2007 7 . 8 1.4 . . 8 3.3 , 30 . 2007 - , , . , - 2007 3 28- . 14- 5 ( 2 ) . , . - - 2007 7 2- . 7 - . 7 - , 7- - m 2007 10, , , . , , , . 2007 2007 . 2007 7 . :1. 2007 7 // - 7 - . 6.4 7 - . 10 1 7.4 , 11 1 8.4 ; 2. - 2007 7 9.85 , 8.25 . 2007 6 - 6.19 , 2.99 ;3. 2007 6 81.1 . 2007 7 - . 7 25.7 10 10.1 . 15.7 .4. 2007 3 5 2007 5.5 2007 12 . 2008 1 1- 1 8.0 . , 2007 11 1.1. 1.2. , 2007 12 1. . . ( ) , , . . , , . , , . . . , , . , . 1 1-3, 7-11 . 1- . . ( 2) . . , . :1 Khan & Senhadji (2000) , 2007 13 (2) , . , , . (- , ) ( , ) ()- . 1. 2007 . 2007 40.1 , 381.8 535.0 . 64.1 , 22.4 , , 13.5 . , 24.5, 7.0 31.5 . 2006 2007 . - , 2007 14 - , . , . 7 - , , 12 28 - , , , 35.8 32.0 . , . 15.7 15.1 . 48.5 53.0 . , . 4 . :2006 2007 2 . 1, 2 . 2007 3-5 . 2007 3 167.6 267.4 401.3 521.6 . 2007 6-11 . 6-11 415.1 , 198.8 91.4 . 2007 7 - 119.5 168.1 48.6 , - 3.68- 9.19 . 2007 12 . 2007 12 120.0 28.9 . 21.6 , 18.9 . , 2007 15 1.3. , 2007 16 , . , 12 79.6 66.3 . , 168.5 102.7 , , 724.0 606.6 , 117.4 . . 2006 . . 2002 2003 . . () - , 2007 7 . - . 7 , 12, 28 . 58 - 4124.6 . 104.5 . 18.9 , 22.7 . 2007 121.2 - 2006 - 1.6 . - 2007 12 31- 9.85 1.10 , 2006 3.43 . - 7.9 . 1.8 . 2007 4 , 7 6.4 7.4 , 8.4 . 12, 28 , 2007 17 1.4. * , 2007 18 - . 12 50 , 28 6.3 , 11.5, 12.62 . 6 . 2007 . 2007 10 23 , 53.1 18 . - 5 , - . 7 - . () . 2007 , , , - 5 . 7 - 0.5 5.5 2008 1 1- . , 24 , . 2007 10.3-49.9 . 2006 12 - 26.1 14.9 . 24.1 , 750.6 , 726.5 . 2006 , 2007 19 1.4. * * , 2007 20 233.4 , 15.2 , 248.6 .- 23.7 () 2007 4 . 93.7 , 4.1 , 2.2 . 2007 22.6 5.1 , 1.1 , 4.0 , 6.5 . , 750.6 80.8 , 19.2 . 84.7 , 6.9 , 7.4 , 0.9 . // ()- (1822-MO) 2001 . , , , , . 80 , 20 . 2007 3.5 , , , 2.2 . , , , -, -, , , - , , , , , . , 2007 21 1.5. - 1.6. - 1.7. *7 - 2007 7 . , 2007 22 2. SIMOM , . . . . . . . 2007 , . (SIMOM) .SIMOM . SIMOM 10 : , , IS , LM , , , , , . , , . , , . , , , , () . , 2007 23 . : : : (1) ; (2) (M0); (3) . : : (1) ; (2) ; (3) . IS : - : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) ( ); (5) (, ); (6) . LM : (M0) : (1) ; (2) ; (3) ; (4) ; (5) - . : . : (1) ; (2) ; (3) PPP ; (4) ; (5) - ( ); (6) . : : (1) ; (2) ; (3) - ; (4) ; (5) ; (6) . : : (1) ; (2) ; (3) . ; (4) . : : (1) ; (2) ; (3) . ; (4) . : : (1) ; (2) - ; (3) . : : (1) ; (2) ; (3) . , . SIMOM . , 2007 24 3. : SVAR . / . , , . . 2000 6 2007 9 . (SVAR )- McCarthy (2000) . SVAR : ( ), , , , 1, ,oil copper CPIt t t t tx i y M e = . oilt - ( ), coppert - ( ), ti - ( ), ty - - ( ), 1tM - M1 , te - , CPIt - - .SVAR 0B ( ): - . 6 . likelihood 12.0%- . 0 00 42 430 0 0 051 52 53 540 0 0 0 061 62 63 64 650 0 0 071 74 75 7610 10 0 10 11 110 0 1oiltcopperttt tttCPItiB x b b yb b b b Mb b b b b eb b b b = , 2007 25 ADF I(0) . VAR 3 likelihood FPE . 1. : . (1 )- 1- 20 4-7 . , 4-7 5%- . (. (2005), . (2005)). 5 13.3-16.9 , . , 61.2-64.5%- , 12.7-13.7%- . - j j 2. 8 6-8 40.0-52.0 - . .2 recursive VAR McCarthy (2000)- . , , , t t j t t j t t jPT P E+ + += . t jP+- t t+j , t jE + t t+j . , 2007 26 4. . , . , . . :1. 2. 3. . 4.6 1.3 , 19.9 14.2 . 1. , ? . , , , , , . . :1. , 2. 3. 4. , . , . , , . , , . , 2007 27 . () , . . . . , . 2007 3 . . . 2006 , 2007 . . 2007 10.2 5.7 . . . . 2007 1 . , . , . , . 2, 1 - 2- . 1 - 2002-2006 , 2007 13.0 . /2/ - 2004 2007 2 - 52.7 , - 45.1 . , 2007 28 , . 1. . , , , . . (/) . .2. . . . , , , . . . 3- . 2006 7 2007 12 3.3 1.6 . . . , . . , . 2006 2007 12 6.6 . , . , 2007 29 . 1-2 . . , , , , . . 16 . 2007 12 82 5 71 . . , , 2007 30 . , , 2007 68.1 . , , , . . . 1290-MO , , , , , . 2007 3.4 . 2007 2.4 , 2.8 , 2.5 . 2007 1886, 1007, 345, 277, 69, 3584 .KfW , - , , . 1 10.0 5.1 , 2 3.6 , 8.7 . , , . . 2007 3.6 , 2.3 . 13.8 . , 2007 31 1.2. 56.3 864.6 2.4 . 70.1 14.1 . 1 29.9 , 14.1 . 21.5 . , 75.4 ( 46.4 , 15.7 , 13.3 ), 1 24.6 . 1 77.9 . 1 . , . 1.1. 2 * 2004 2005 20062007 2007 2007 2007I II III IV 1 24.6 4.0 21.6 23.3 46.3 52.8 55.6 77.9 11.8 9.1 6.2 21.5 49.3 32.4 41.2 53.0 12.8 -4.3 50.0 25.7 43.0 83.8 74.8 109.3 75.4 27.6 39.2 38.3 46.7 35.1 38.8 50.3 46.4 25.3 41.6 62.5 75.1 78.5 75.8 60.8 13.3 -14.7 84.0 5.0 15.8 20.8 31.1 53.4 15.7 75.6 13.5 23.3 16.0 -17.2 -11.7 24.1 2 100.0 20.4 34.6 34.8 46.6 39.1 42.4 56.3 3.61 4.05 4.02 4.05 3.92 4.82 4.49 2.54 2.44 2.42 - - - 1.90* 2 , 2007 32 , , . . 7 82.2 8 , 60.8 . , 53.4 24.1 . , , , . . , , . , , . . 19.9 4.6 . 78.4 584.1 138.4 560.2 . 9.4 25.6 , 507.1 77 . 29.1 269.6 . , 41.5 284.9 . . 26.9 304.4 . 38.5 165.4 . , 27.7 32.9 . , 18.0 . , 64.2 . . , 2007 33 1.8. 2 (2- ) 1.9. , ( ) , 2007 341 1 77.9 258.6 590.5 24.6 . , 1 (62.0 ) , 1 . 1 , 1 . 1 14.1 . 98.2 53.0 , 20.8 34.6 , 160.4 109.3 . 2007 2 1 1 , 10 . 4 1 . 2 1 2 . 606.0 50.3 1.8 75.4 . , , . 421.2 60.8 , , 184.7 36.1 . . 74.8 , 25.2 . 2006 5.2 . , 2007 35 1.10. 1 ( ) 1.11. , ( ) , 2007 36 . 0.52 1.90 1.9 . - . . 0.47 4.49- . 4.49 . , , , , , . 5. 2007 - 2007 ()- 2007 , . - 2007 8.1 , , , , , - (2007 8.0 ) 11.9 . - 2007 ()- 2 , 4.0 , - 0.4 . 10.0 10.25 , , . , 2007 37- 2 13.3 47.5 , 1.3 , 5.5 , 33.7 7.8 . - 2007 49.3 13.0 , 43.6 10.5 . 0.3 10.8 , 1.2 5.2 .- 2007 - , , , . 2007 11.2 , , 2.2 . 0.26 . 13.6 . - 13 , 0.1 6.5 , .- 2007 10 14.5 , 6 , 4.14 , 7.47 . , , . . 2007 M2 5.5 . 2006 16.7 , 0.22 . M1 2.09 . 21.0 , 2006 3.53 . 0.42 . 12.1 . , 2007 38 2006 . - 2007 3.8 . , 16.4 . 3.6 . 16.1 , 219.8 . 30.2 . 1.3. 2007 , , , . 282.6 . , 5.4 . , 2007 975.3 . . 24 5.4 , 17 . 79.9 20.1 . , . 37.1 . , . 17.4 . . 2 2007 4 . , , , - 2007 1- . , , , , . , 2007 39 1.12. /1992-2007/ 1.13. ( ) 1.14. , 2007 40 110 , 168 8.4 , 7.4 277.4 - 2.0 2007 10.5 , 9.3 . 7.1 0.6 . 2 , . , 39.3 . 2.7 . 4.13 , 4.09 . . , , , . 1.2. 2007 , . 5.15 4 0.16 4.64 4.95 2.19 0 2.91 5.41 -0.41 0 4.38 5.13 3.39 0.02 4.13 : , 2008 1 2006 0.22 . 0.26 , 0.58 , 0.9 . 1.4. . 2007 1 1- 1165.0 0.4 12 31- 1169.97 . 0.1 . , 2007 92.6 . . , 2007 41 . , , 67.8 . , 73.6 . , 74.8 . . 2007 7 4.5 , 19.8 . . 2007 8 2.8 , , 33.9 . , 32.3 . , , . 9.5 . . 8 1- 1164.13 2.0 1187.28 . 4 , 172.1 . , 53.5 . , , . . - 4 15.0 . . . 80.553, 81.734 , 2000 19.5 , 18.3 . .3 .4 . , 2007 42 2007 43 2 2007 16 981 , 9369 . 2.1. , , . , 2007 75.7 304.9 , 46.0 477.2 707.9 1515.2 ., 2007 27.6 81.5 . 2.5 ., , 51.2 1110.0 . 3.3 , 71.9 . 1996-1998 3.5 , , . , . , 2000 1700 60 2007 16 500 2.1 2000 35 . 29.2 , 15.6 , 13.0 , 7.6 , 6.3 . 2007 6.6 , 2.6 , 2.3 , . , , 2007 3.2 . 2007 44 , , , , . , . 17.9 149- . 90, 43, 12- . 2.1. 2007 2006 20052007 20072006 20051 466 423 397 43 692 20 18 17 2 33 47 54 45 -7 24 45 33 23 12 225 230 140 86 90 1446 5 5 5 0 07 9 9 9 0 08 27 25 18 2 99 3 3 4 0 -110 7 10 9 -3 -211 37 32 33 5 412 26 21 23 5 313 17 18 20 -1 -314 40 39 40 1 015 0 1 1 -1 -116 2 1 1 1 1 981 832 731 149 250 , , . 2007 45 2.1. , , - 2.2. ( ) 2.3. - : Global Financial Stability Report . , 2006 , 2007 3 . 2007 46 2.4. , 2.5. 2007 47 2.6. 2.7. 2007 48 2.2. 2007 , 7.5 64.5 . 24.6 . 70- , . 2007 . . , : . . 2.3. , , . 1999 14-24 1.8-3 . , . ( 2.8) , , , 2007 14.2 . , +/-15 , +/-40 . 2007 30.1 . 2007 49 2.8. , 2.9. , 2.10. , , : Global Financial Stability Report . , 2006 , 2007 3 . 2007 50 17.5 189.5 1270.8 8.4 78.8 1012.6 . 8.4 36.8 0.3 32.3 . . , . , . 6. , , . , , . 1930- , 1980 . , , . . , , , , , , , , , , , . . , - , , , , , , - , , . . - , , - , , , , . . 1997 7.6 2005 33.8 . 2007 51 , , , , , . , . 1998 , , . , , . , 1994 , , 1996 , 1997 () 6 , 1999 , 2002 - , 2004 , 2005 , 2006 . , , , , . 2015 1990 , . 2007 137 , 181 , 16 20 , - 10 . 2007 54.3 (2005 59.1 , 2006 57.1 ) . , 28.3 , 10.7 . ( 8.2 ), (7.5 ), (6.9 ), (6.6 ) . 2007 52 (3.2 ), (1.4 ) . 33.0 3 . 20.2 1 2 . 1 . 9 1 63.2 (2005 60.8 , 2006 61.2 ) . - 1998 1 2004 26 . 2007 40 . , 1-5 . , . 50 40 1-5 . . . , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .. , . 2007 53 2.4. , . 95 . ()- - 2007 . , , , , . , , , , , , , , , . , , , , , . , , , , . , , , . 2007 54 , , . 2007 . : . : , . . , . . : . , , , , . , . , , . , , . , , , 2007 55 . , , .1. , , 14 , , . , , , , , , , , . 2007 , , , , , - , . 91 1365 . , . , , , . , , , , . 2. , , , , . 2007 56 , , , , , . - 2007 . - , , . - , . , , . , , - 2007 10- 30- 491 . , , . , . - 2005 , , - . (JICA)- , , 2007 . . , . 2007 57 - , , 2007 . , . , , . : 2006 12 - , , . CAMELS- . , . , . 2007 58 2007 59 , 6 , 2 , 9 , 1 , 1 , 17 , . 317 49.5 , 50.5 . 71 . , 96 89 , , , , , 3 4 , 5 7 , 2 6 , - 10 13 , - 17 21 , - 17 12 17 - . 26 , . 5 , . , 6 1 , 5, 56 . , , , 21 , , . 76 , , 38 . , , , , 15 , . 3 2007 60 , 2 . . , , 2007 1 . , . , , . , , , , . , , , .- , , . 2007-2011 , 2007 , , , , , , , , , . , , , , , 2007 61. , . , , , , . , . 2006 7 8- , - , . , , , , , , . . , , . 2006 11 29- . 2007 , , , , , , , . 2007 , , . , , . , , , , .2006 12 (APG)- , 2007 62 . 2007 7 . APG (www.apgml.org) . , , . , , , . . 538.9 , 4.4 651.5 . . , , , . . , , , , . . . - 2007 4.3 . , , . 2 4 2 , 2007 63 . 1 , . 3.1. , , 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20071 222.2 406.4 586.3 620.2 689.7 758.7 (%) 22.9 82.9 44.3 5.8 11.2 102 287.1 611.7 793.5 797.5 851.5 968.3 (%) 25.6 113.1 29.7 0.5 6.8 13.73 295.6 561.9 617.3 541.6 762.8 829.1 (%) 56.9 90.1 9.9 -12.3 40.8 8.74 405.9 636.8 727.1 391 910.6 1098.5 (%) 68.3 56.9 14.2 -46.2 132.9 20.6 1210.8 2216.8 2724.2 2350.3 3214.6 3654.6 (%) 44.3 83.1 22.9 -13.7 36.8 13.7 , 1, 2, 7, 11 . . , 2006 2 1- . 2007 3.7 14.3 . 401.9 2.8 , 13.9 97.2 . 83.0 . 120-150 , 20-25 . 2007 64 3.2. , / ./ 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20071 471.5 850.2 1,086.4 1,481.8 1,787.6 2,358.7 (%) 13.9 80.3 27.8 36.4 20.6 31.92 582.0 1,000.4 1,429.3 1,809.4 2,742.8 3,421.2 (%) 33.2 71.9 42.9 26.6 51.6 24.73 718.2 986.8 1,400.2 2,057.2 2,145.7 3,312.1 (%) 45.1 37.4 41.9 46.9 4.3 54.34 972.3 1,249.5 1,746.3 2,222.7 2,847.4 5,230.1 (%) 81.6 28.5 39.8 27.3 28.1 83.7 2,744.0 4,087.0 5,662.1 7,571.1 9,523.5 14,322.2 (%) 45.9 48.9 38.5 33.7 25.8 50.4 29.3 , 14.1 , 13.7 , 11.6 , 5.4 , 4.8 , 4.4 , 4.3 , 12.4 . 0.5 , 1.9 , 1.7 , 0.7 , 0.2 4.7 , 0.2 , 0.1 . , , , , . , , , , , , . , , . - . 15 32 . 2007 65 3.1. , 3.2. , 3.3. , 2007 66 3.4. , 3.5. , 2007 , 3.6. , 2007 67 3.7. 3.8. 2006-2007 2007 68 , , . , , , , , , . 2007 - - , . , - , , , , . , , , , , , , . 2007 .(Standard&Poors) 2007 12 + - . + + , -, + . . - 7 . 2007 69 () . , . , , . - , , , - / / 2004 , - . - 3 - 2007 4 . - 4 2007 12 - . . - , . , , . ()- , 42 - 24 2007 7 . , - 16 , , , . 2007 70 . , . . , 2007, 2008 , , , , . , , , - , , , . , - , 2007 7 . , , - . , , , . . 2007 , . , 912 . 30 41 , 33 51 . 2007 . , 3368 / 2007 71 18.8 541.5 / . , 2007 , . , . 32 45 /2977.5 // , 841 . 6 , 5 23 . -, , . 2007 14 , , - . , , , , , . , , , 25 . 2007 , , , , , , 5 - . 2007 72 2007 73 2007 . ()- 9.9 . 1729.6 . 2004-2006 8.8 9.9 1.3 . , , (- 20.6 ), , (- 27.4 ), , (- 7.6 ), , , (- 9.1 ) , . , , , . 32.3 , . 22.4 , , , 18.6 , , , 15.8 , , 15.4 , 13.7 . 4.1. , (2005 , ) 2004 2005 2006 2007* 2,591,592.8 2,779,578.2 3,017,425.7 3,316,498.9 (%) 10.6 7.3 8.6 9.9 , , 547,642.2 608,335.1 654,148.2 757,340.1 (%) 18.6 11.1 7.5 15.8 , 548,261.9 608,208.9 646,310.2 657,236.4 (%) 34.3 10.9 6.3 1.7 126,261.5 101,962.9 115,585.3 152,962.3 (%) -1.4 -19.2 13.4 32.3, , 79,328.2 80,021.1 83,634.8 86,273.1 (%) 6.3 0.9 4.5 3.2 50,747.7 58,835.2 61,827.5 75,681.5 (%) -4.4 15.9 5.1 22.4 , 220,643.6 226,961.1 261,759.7 301,994.9 (%) -2.6 2.9 15.3 15.4 , 16,342.8 19,135.0 21,022.1 21,278.2 (%) 14.4 17.1 9.9 1.24 m4.1 2007 74 2004 2005 2006 2007*, , 251,425.0 309,100.0 346,429.2 410,868.1 (%) 10.7 22.9 12.1 18.6 87,147.2 99,966.8 96,776.1 110,028.8 (%) 21.7 14.7 -3.2 13.7 , , 199,469.5 217,120.3 228,863.4 238,925.1 (%) 5.1 8.8 5.4 4.4 , , 64,651.5 66,847.2 67,154.5 67,221.7 (%) 4.0 3.4 0.5 0.1 89,361.1 84,915.7 88,685.5 90,922.0 (%) -7.7 -5.0 4.4 2.5 , 36,859.3 37,966.5 41,515.4 42,276.4 (%) 2.9 3.0 9.3 1.8, 27,229.5 28,323.0 30,027.1 33,479.4 (%) 13.8 4.0 6.0 11.5 -69,426.2 -79,858.5 -109,673.2 -149,010.8 (%) 26.4 15.0 37.3 35.9, 307,180.5 311,737.9 383,359.9 419,021.7 (%) 17.6 1.5 23.0 9.3 8,467.5 * : (2005 ) 155.4 10.0 . 152.5 37.7 . , 3.8 0.4 . - 0.7 4.1 , 2.6 27.4 . - 19.5 20.6 . 5.5 15.7 40.3 . 182.3 38.3 . 2007 . 23.8 17.2 , 6.0 8.6 . 9.2 , 99.9 2006 1.8 . 2007 75 15.1 2000 . . , , . , , , . . -80 4.6 , -93 8.5 . 80 93 2007 11 11.3-12.0 . -80 27.4 , -93 23.9 . . . , , . , , . . , , 2008 7 1- ()- . - 40 - . , 51.6 . 40 2008 7 1- . , 60 . 102.0 , 482.2 . - 2.2 . . , 353.7 . 176.2 1 . , , , , , 2007 76 . 5 3 . 10 , - 15 10 . 1.4 , 7.7 9.1 . 2007 1949.1 . , 2170.1 . , 220.0 . . 66.8 407.4 . 45.6 . . 2006 8.2 1.4 , 176.1 . 27.7 . , , , . 152.6 . 33.9 , 27.8 . 41.9 975.3 . 24 . . 2007 1 1- 69000 , 10 1- 90000 . 10 1- 20 . , 0-18 100 . 67.8 , , 24.3 , 7.9 , , . , 88.1 , 31.0 , 28.9 , , 23.9 , , , 88.0 , , . 2007 77 2007 2005 10.0 37.7 , , , 3.7 . , , 37.5 31.1 , 14.8 13.2 , 102.6 2.1 , , , 5.3 3.2 . , 0.4 . 37.6 4.4 . 2.6 23.2 . 1.8 . , 69.9 , 22.3 , , , 7.8 . , 84.5 , 42.8 . 86.8 , 82.7 , 69.1 . 41.5 , 44.4 . 9.4 , 39.8 . 5.3 , 5.3 . 2007 , . 40.3 , 18.3 , 17.0 , 2.4 , 2.2 , 260.6 . 2006 5.4 15.7 . 2.9 , 2.2 , 257.9 , 124.7 , 7.1 . 42.2 , 45.6 . . 2006 9.3-566.9 2.9-33.0 . (3425.3 ), (3190.2 ), (3000.0 ), (2912.6 ), (2653.5 ) . 176 , 1 , 10 , 11 , 74 , 80 . 2007 78 13.1 88.8 . 1.6 . 12.8 1.8 , 97.1 . 202.7 40.7 25.1 . 0.7 6.9 , 0.2 4.3 , 1.1 28.3 . 4.4 3.5 , 1.3 1.1 . 114.8 , 109.6 , 76.5 , 114.5 , 930.4 34.5 2006 23.8 17.2 , 18.2 14.2 , 52.9 5.4 , 6.1 8.6 , 5.4 5.0 , 0.5 1.5 . 9.2 1.8 16.4 . 1.8 1.8 , 99.9 . , 2007 314.3 47.5 17.8 . , 93.1 . , 26.8 , 15.3 (, , , , ..), 41.9 , 15.9 . , 54.7 . 228.5 , 31.3 , 13.4 , , 36.1 , 19.1 . 2007 79 , 23.3 , 209.9 2006 686.2 2.9 , 14.5 7.4 . 341.8 30.0 9.6 . 30.0 65.1 , 10.7 12.9 , 16.5 5 . 10.7 5.8 . 17.7 0.2 9.2 . 14.3 7.5 205.0 . 14.1 , 703.6 4.8 992.2 22.2 . 0.2 3.5 . 0.3 14.2 , 23.3 6.4 . , 2007 162.0 110.1 68.0 . 63.1 . 246.8 73.3 42.2 . 3.0 2007 82.4 . 64.6 52.6 , , , 3.3 8.2 . 405.0 52.6 1.2 . 19.1 43.2 25.1 , 13.7 8.4 150.0 . 2007 . 2007 80 7. : . . ( ) ( ) . . . [1] ( , , , , )HP P X S CT C A R = HP - 1 .- ; S- : 3 ; CT- : a) , b) ( , c) ; C- , : ) 6 b) (1- 5- )- ; A- / : a) , b) , , ) , , ; d) ;R- ( )- : a) , , b) ; - . . . 2007 81 [2] Xb eHP e += HP - 1 .- , { } , , , , X S CT C A R - , b - , e - . 2 . [3] lnHP Xb e = + 1 3 2 4 20 1 2 3 4 51 1 1 1 1ln( ) ,i j ij k ik l il f if z iz ij k l f zP S CT C A R a a a a a a e= = = = == + + + + + + 2(0, ) N e s , 0a - , j 1a ,, 5za- ; 2006-2007 118 (3 )- 5. 1. : LOG(PRICE)- : : 118 # C 6.22 0.0000* (, ) (DA3) -0.11 0.0006* , (DA1) -0.07 0.0268** (DCT2) 0.07 0.0240** (LOG(DIS)) -0.16 0.0000* - (XU) 0.21 0.0000* (LOG(S)) 0.28 0.0001*, (DR1) -0.06 0.0710***0.600.58 : DA2, DR2 0.34 : log(dis), DR1, DA1 0.00White Heteroskedasticity 0.12Durbin-Watson 1.98#- H0 *,**,***- 1%, 5%,10%- 0 . 5 1 2, Google Earth 1: 25000 .2R2R 2007 82 , , , , , , , , 1-10%- . , . 8. , 60 (159 ) 95.49 . . , , , . , , . 2007 11 - 500 . . 2008 , . , . , , - 2007 35 . , 2007 2007 , . . - 2007 7 . , 841 . . 2007 83 2006 8800 . . - , , , . , 8000 . 6700 .2008 . , . - . , , , . . 4.2 - 2007 15.1 . 10 . . 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( ) 2 . , , . , , , . , , , . . . . , . , . . . 70 2007 8 6.5 . . . 2007 86 37 - 2000 20.6 2007 3 7.5 9.8 . . 1. , 2007 , 2.7 8.1 4.7 2.6 2.1 10. 2007 5.2 . , . 8.5 . . , .- 10 . 6 . , 1 0.18 7.47 , 0.27 4.14 . 10 14.5 . - .- 6 1.9 8 . 1 . - . . , 10 . - , 2007 87 . . . - 17 . 2007 4.1 2006 1.6 .. 6 10 . , , , , . 12.5 11 1 1.50 . 8 36.4 1 1998 . 13 . 11 3 2 . 1. 5 1. 3/4/2008 3/12/2007 4.25 3/6/2008 12/6/2007 5.50 2/14/2008 7/4/2006 0.50 3/6/2008 6/6/2007 4.00- 3/18/2008 12/11/2007 4.25 3/13/2008 9/13/2007 2.75 3/4/2008 11/07/2007 6.75 2007 88 6.75 6.50 11/7/2007 7.47 7.29 12/20/2007 7.75 7.50 4/24/2007 0.25 0.07 7/14/2006 5.00 4.75 8/9/2007 8.25 8.00 7/25/2007T 3.38 3.25 12/20/2007 4.0 3.8 6/6/2007 7.5 7.8 9/24/2007 13.8 13.3 11/12/2007 5.3 5.0 12/12/2007 4.3 4.5 4/24/2007 4.0 3.8 10/30/2007 2.8 2.5 9/13/2007 5.5 5.8 12/6/2007 11.3 11.5 9/5/2007 4.3 , 2004 2.3 2007 4.5 . . 2007 89 , 2007 6.4 . , , , , , , , , 4.9, 2.4, 1.7, 1.3 . 4.2 , . . 4.3. 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( ) 4.2. 4.3. , : 2007 92 2003 3.4 2004-2005 28.6 13.2 . 2006-2007 0.7 30.1 . 4.4 1851.2 (- 40.6 ), 1749.2 (- 38.4 ) , 102.0 (- 2.2 ) 482.2 (- 10.6 ) . 4.4. 2007 ( ) 2006 2007 2007/2006/./ 1360.41 100 1703.98 1851.19 100 136.08 108.64 1354.10 99.54 1698.08 1843.67 99.59 136.15 108.57 1128.14 83.31 1348.15 1500.72 81.40 133.03 111.32 476.83 35.21 574.03 647.84 43.17 135.86 112.86 , 111.93 8.27 139.60 158.44 10.56 141.55 113.50 6.91 0.51 7.76 8.13 0.54 117.70 104.79 , 352.72 26.05 351.25 409.96 27.32 116.23 116.72 72.07 5.32 94.14 102.48 6.83 142.19 108.86 107.67 7.95 181.37 173.86 11.58 161.47 95.86 225.96 16.69 349.93 342.95 18.60 151.78 98.00 1.63 0.12 1.80 2.51 0.14 154.53 139.62 4.69 0.35 4.10 5.01 0.27 106.89 122.14 1237.01 100 1815.88 1749.17 100 141.40 96.33 982.35 79.41 1381.53 1361.46 77.83 138.59 98.55 692.49 70.49 667.41 663.53 48.74 95.82 99.42 18.08 1.84 24.04 18.32 1.35 101.32 76.22 271.78 27.67 690.08 679.62 49.92 250.06 98.48 175.67 14.20 331.92 286.98 16.41 163.36 86.46 78.99 6.39 102.44 100.73 5.76 127.52 98.33 371.75 316.56 482.21 129.71 152.33 123.40 -111.90 102.02 82.67 -91.17 -73.26 111.90 192.51 -262.78 172.04 , 89.98 56.28 45.25 50.28 80.39 , -163.24 55.62 147.27 -90.22 264.78 2007 93 147.2 8.6 , 490.8 36.1 1851.2 . 99.6 2006 489.6 36.1 , . 81.4 372.6 33.0 . 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Y , , . , , . , , , , 5 , - , 30- . 30 7.4 2007 95 4.4. , (- ) 4.5. 4.6 2007 96 . 718.9 , 281.9 , 358.1 . 4.5. , 2006 2007 - 4,461.5 39,599.3 35,137.8 787.6 960.9 849.9 -111 -11.6 12,604.3 62,126.8 49,522.5 392.9-20 2030.81 10256.13, 13676.95 . -20 5217.7 4 . , , , , , - . 2007 40000 60 - . 10 91, 182, 273 408.6 4.5 . 27 , 24.8 , 21.7 , 21.2 , 4.9 , 0.2 . 2007 55 , 134.2 850 . 458.9 , 245.6 . 535 366 3.2 . 360 131.9 717.6 , 585.7 . /129.6 /, /92.3 /, /13.3 /, /52.4 /, /52.3 / . /13.7 /, /2.7 /, /2.2 /, /0.5 / /0.3 /, /0.1 / - . /13.7 /, /678.6 /, /655.5 /, 2007 97 /393.6 / /316.9 /, /144.6 / - . 384 - 307 77 . 262 , 26 , 19 . 116.1 62 42 32 , 73.9 30 . 51.7 , 48.3 . 4.6. 2007 75.8 . , 176.0 . 288.0 . . 11.3 . , 45.7 ., 79.5 . 212.3 . 75.8 . . 2004-2006 1-2 , 3-4 . 2007 34.9 , 3916.1 . . 4.6. 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(+) 7.5 -7.8 -18.3 -60.9 -79.5 . // 0.5 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.8 . // 7.0 -8.0 -19.3 -62.9 -83.2 . (++) 35.3 57.5 63.5 56.0 212.3 . // 20.9 33.1 31.0 23.2 108.2 . 14.0 21.4 24.1 24.4 83.9 1. 26.4 41.4 53.0 53.5 174.3 2. 12.4 19.9 28.9 29.1 90.3 . // 0.4 3.0 8.3 8.4 20.1 II. (A+) 57.7 -75.0 24.4 169.0 176.0 . 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 . (++) 57.7 -75.0 24.4 169.0 176.0 . // 21.3 52.3 82.1 172.1 327.7 . 74.8 0.0 1.3 -1.2 74.9 1. 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.2 -1.2 2. 74.8 0.0 1.3 0.0 76.0 . -38.4 -127.3 -59.1 -1.8 -226.6 1. // -2.1 -26.9 -44.7 60.4 -13.2 2. // -64.9 -64.8 21.6 0.4 -107.6 2.1 7.6 17.1 11.2 39.5 75.5 2007 106 2.1.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.9 2.1.1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1.1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.92.1.2 7.7 17.1 11.2 38.5 74.6 2.1.2.1 17.1 62.6 20.8 60.5 160.9 2.1.2.1.1 9.7 27.0 13.5 31.7 81.9 2.1.2.1.2 7.4 35.6 7.3 28.8 79.1 2.1.2.2 9.4 45.5 9.6 21.9 86.3 2.1.2.2.1 5.0 7.7 7.3 9.4 29.4 2.1.2.2.2 4.4 37.7 2.3 12.5 56.9 2.2 -72.4 -82.0 10.4 -39.1 -183.12.2.1 -73.3 -96.8 -15.2 -38.2 -223.52.2.2 0.9 14.9 25.6 -1.0 40.4 2.2.2.1 5.4 19.3 42.1 12.8 79.6 2.2.2.2 4.5 4.5 16.5 13.7 39.3 3. // 29.4 -30.4 -34.2 -42.1 -77.3 4. -0.8 -5.2 -1.9 -20.6 -28.4 III. 50.5 162.7 62.2 -239.3 36.1 IV. (I+II+III) 165.5 123.0 72.2 -72.6 288.0 V. (+-) -165.5 -123.0 -72.2 72.6 -288.0 . -54.8 18.7 18.8 44.4 27.1 . -112.3 -142.6 -92.6 26.9 -320.6 . - -1.5 -0.9 -1.7 -1.3 -5.4 : //, 61.5 21.8 -1.1 40.4 26.4 //, 48.4 34.6 30.0 68.1 44.7 , 79.4 57.1 47.6 90.4 64.9 - , 76.9 58.5 52.0 90.1 66.3 - , - 9.9 3.4 -1.1 -0.3 1.9 , / ./852.8 975.7 1045.5 975.3 975.3 31.4 29.1 28.6 24.0 24.0 () / . / 579.6 1049.7 1356.3 908.4 3894.1 2007 107 11. 2001 , . , . , . , , 2007 7 . 2006 , 500.0 765 60.1 460 . 52.6 , . , 22 , 2008 . , , , , , , , . , , . 2007 108 12. 2007 43.4 1748.7 . , 28.9 1865.2 . 116.5 . 35.5 3613.9 . . 1. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 614.5 630.1 659.0 787.4 1,021.1 1,184.4 1,485.6 2,117.3 332.8 374.2 470.6 538.5 721.3 882.1 1,219.6 1,748.7 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 84.9 81.9 46.1 41.8 52.5 29.1 40.3 42.2 - 69.3 61.9 27.4 99.3 95.0 152.6 146.1 172.8 25.0 25.0 30.2 25.5 52.0 36.9 16.4 39.7 . , 76.4 59.8 81.4 77.5 98.7 72.2 56.3 32.1 23.1 25.6 2.9 4.5 1.1 11.3 6.8 81.1 - 109.5 120.1 132.8 172.4 224.9 295.0 403.8 661.9 - 17.8% 19.1% 20.2% 21.9% 22.0% 24.9% 27.2% 31.3%- 89.1 94.4 117.4 150.3 187.4 237.1 334.4 551.0 - 26.8% 25.2% 24.9% 27.9% 26.0% 26.9% 27.4% 31.5%- 8.0 7.9 7.7 3.6 7.8 9.3 6.4 6.6 - 3.3 5.9 1.0 1.0 12.2 11.4 11.1 24.0 - - 9.2 11.9 6.8 17.5 17.6 37.1 51.9 80.3 - 206.2 221.1 224.6 257.0 341.9 417.9 547.8 732.1 - 33.6% 35.1% 34.1% 32.6% 33.5% 35.3% 36.9% 34.6%- 164.5 181.5 199.2 207.3 319.9 344.4 471.5 655.9 - 49.4% 48.5% 42.3% 38.5% 44.4% 39.0% 38.7% 37.5%- 6.8 7.9 3.2 4.3 0.5 3.0 7.3 8.1 - 0.4 0.4 11.2 1.9 4.0 3.6 1.3 1.7 - - 34.5 31.3 11.0 43.4 17.6 66.8 67.7 66.3 298.8 288.9 301.6 358.1 454.3 471.4 534.0 723.3 48.6% 45.8% 45.8% 45.5% 44.5% 39.8% 35.9% 34.2% 79.1 98.3 154.0 180.9 213.9 300.5 413.7 541.8 23.8% 26.3% 32.7% 33.6% 29.7% 34.1% 33.9% 31.0% 2007 109 466.1 521.5 500.9 615.9 869.7 1,064.9 1,542.8 1,888.9 326.0 400.5 391.0 493.5 734.0 962.6 1,447.1 1,865.1 21.0 20.9 19.9 7.5 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.2 95.7 94.7 87.6 108.0 128.8 91.6 79.5 9.5 5.1 2.0 18.4 3.4 2.4 6.9 2.8 8.5 15.2 14.1 - 267.1 231.6 208.9 284.2 407.2 512.4 1,046.5 1,400.1 57.3% 44.4% 41.7% 46.2% 46.8% 48.1% 67.8% 74.1%- 45.1 43.8 43.1 37.5 20.6 27.2 45.1 57.3 - 5.1 2.0 - - - - - - 9.7% 8.4% 8.6% 6.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 13.8 125.1 139.0 171.7 306.2 423.0 355.4 407.7 4.2% 31.2% 35.6% 34.8% 41.7% 43.9% 24.6% 21.9% -148.4 -108.6 -158.1 -171.5 -151.5 -119.5 57.2 -228.4 -6.8 26.2 -79.6 -45.1 12.7 80.5 227.5 116.3, - 157.6 111.4 76.1 111.9 182.3 217.3 642.7 738.2 , - .. 178.0 137.2 91.6 133.9 219.8 275.2 712.1 849.1 , - -161.1 -177.3 -181.6 -219.5 -321.3 -390.7 -502.7 -674.8, - .. -119.4 -137.7 -156.2 -169.8 -299.3 -317.2 -426.4 -598.6 1,080.6 1,151.6 1,159.9 1,403.3 1,890.8 2,249.2 3,028.4 4,006.2 ... 658.7 774.7 861.6 1,032.0 1,455.3 1,844.6 2,666.6 3,613.8 , - 376.6 351.7 341.7 456.6 632.1 807.4 1,450.3 2,062.0 34.8% 30.5% 29.5% 32.5% 33.4% 35.9% 47.9% 51.5%, - .. 356.2 326.0 326.3 434.6 594.6 749.5 1,380.9 1,951.1 54.1% 42.1% 37.9% 42.1% 40.9% 40.6% 51.8% 54.0%, - 251.4 264.9 267.7 294.5 362.6 445.2 592.9 789.4 23.3% 23.0% 23.1% 21.0% 19.2% 19.8% 19.6% 19.7%, - .. 204.6 223.3 242.3 244.8 340.6 371.7 516.6 713.2 31.1% 28.8% 28.1% 23.7% 23.4% 20.1% 19.4% 19.7% : 2007 110 , - - 64.8 551.0 . , - 33.8 1400.1 . 849.1 . . 41.3 1951.2 . 54.0 . - 31.3 , - 74.1 . - 0.12 . 1. , - - 2007 19 102, - 44.0 207, - 1.5 203.7- . 2007 111 , - - 39.1 655.9 . , - 27 57.3 . , 598.6 . . 38.1 713.2 . 19.7 . - 37.5 , 3.0 . - - 1.3 . 2. , - /33.3 /, /91.4 /, /24.4 / - 22.6 122.6- . /34.1 /, /7.9 /, , , /95 / - - 2.7 270 . 54.7 45.3 . 2007 112 13. , 13 2007 3 1345 . , 44.8 , 19.4 -, 9 . 1. , 1. // , 1 33.1 13.8 4.7 16.4 11.8 12.2 7.92 32.9 15.2 4.1 14.1 7.7 11.1 14.73 30.1 15.9 6.0 12.3 13.6 8.4 13.64 28.6 23.0 4.4 10.6 8.4 8.4 16.35 29.4 16.7 4.5 4.5 12.6 15.2 16.86 26.2 23.4 9.5 10.6 5.5 8.4 16.2 662.0 343.0 112.0 284.0 235.0 235.0 248.0: . 2007 113 47.4 , . (22.9 ) , (32.8 ), , (7.6 ) . 29.8 , , , 66 , . 39 56 500 . , . 14. , 1998 37 2006 105 . , , , 2007 5 219 - . , , 2007 2006 . 2006 12 31- , () 889.6 . . 2007 114 2007 115 /, 1. 02. 12 91 , 2006 19 - 5.5 17:00 100 000 ( ) , 2006 19 - 5.4 2.1.7- 5 . 2. 03.05 118 , , , 2001 181, 2005 397 , , - .3. 03.20 134 2003 576 , - . 4. 04.23 204 , 2002 84 , - 2.5- 1 - SWIFT- 0.20 , 1 0.25 , 4.6- 3- 15.00 .5. 07.02 311 2001 461 , - .6. 07.02 312 , , , , - .5 2007 m 2007 1167. 07.02 313 - , , , , , , , .8. 10.30 491 15 , , 31 2004 227 , , - . 9. 11.21 547 , 2007 312 , , - , 2.10- , , , 2.2- 1.5, 1.6- . 10. 11.21 547 , 2007 313 - 3.1.4- 20 - - - , 3.1.5- 20 - - . 2.1- , - 24 - , 3.1- - 7 . , 2007 313 1, 2 , 2007 547 - , , , 4 , , . 2007 2007 117 . . 2006 12 31- , . 3 4- . , , , , . 3-34 , , , . :. , , 2008 7 3 6 2007 118 2007 12 31- , , , , , . . , , , , . , . . . . . . , . 2007 119 () () , . , . 2007 12 31- , , . , 19 23 . , 2008 7 3- 2007 120 2007 12 31- , 2007 2006 3 48,414 18,779 4 (18,895) (8,072) 29,519 10,707 , 5 29,831 2,309 /() 6 26,959 (7,487) 1,879 1,204 88,188 6,733 7 (39,451) - 48,737 6,733 8 (4,890) (4,667) 10 (36,719) (5,199) /() 7,128 (3,133) . 2007 121 . 2007 12 31- 2007 2006 23,197 20,792 11 365,295 167,870 , 12 831,192 612,859 13 - 11,195 - 14 115,748 60,701 15 64,582 115,967 16 19,292 18,373 17 29,604 35,822 18 18,093 18,276 19 2,416 19,464 1,469,419 1,081,319 364,074 245,099 13 - 11,272 20 103,425 70,845 21 149,502 150,633 , 22 603,332 405,129 , 23 171,027 148,542 24 38,346 16,683 1,429,706 1,048,203 25 5,000 5,000 5,130 4,561 26 15,704 11,145 27 13,879 12,410 39,713 33,116 1,469,419 1,081,319 2007 122 2007 12 31- ( 26) ( 27) 2006 1 1- 5,000 11,145 21,317 (350) 37,112 - - (67) - (67) - - - (3,133) (3,133) - - (67) (3,133) (3,200) - - - (796) (796) - - (8,840) 8,840 - 2006 12 31- 5,000 11,145 12,410 4,561 33,116 - - 1,469 - 1,469 - - - 7,128 7,128 - - 1,469 7,128 8,597 - - - (2,000) (2,000) - 4,559 - (4,559) - 2007 12 31- 5,000 15,704 13,879 5,130 39,713 . 2007 123 2007 12 31- 2007 2006 /() 7,128 (3,133) :- ()/ (27,757) 87 ()/ (19,198) 8,491 - 505 857 877 17 17 27,889 - 39,329 - 28,265 6,844 :- (169,668) (158,569) - (53,578) (28,423) 51,385 (56,260) , (200,054) (221,875) (919) (758) 6,218 101,453 (22,281) (12,502) :- 118,975 53,413 (77) - 32,580 (54,868) (1,131) (8,243) , 198,203 314,831 , 22,485 58,994 (8,226) 16,050 2,177 10,087 11 7 (702) (1,614) (691) (1,607) , 1,486 8,480 919 196 , 20,792 12,116 , 23,197 20,792 . 2007 124 - 2007 12 311. 1924 6 2- ( ) : , 46, 9. . . , , . . :- , - - - - , - 2007 12 31- 2008 7 3- .2. Y 2.1 (C)- . , , . , . 2007 125 - 2007 12 312.2 Y (a) , , . , , . . () , . . () . . . . , . . .() . . , , ., , , . 2007 126 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() , , .() C - (i) , , , . , . .(ii) , . , , .(iii) , , , . , . - . , , - . , . 2007 127 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() C - ()(iv) ( ) . - . - . , , .(v) , . :- , ; - , ; - ( , ). , . , . , , - . 2007 128 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() C - ()(vi) - ( ) , - . .(vii) , , . . , . , - . , .(viii) , , , , , , , . , , . , . , - . , . 2007 129 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() C - ()(ix) , , . , , . . - . , , - . . , . , - . , - , .(x) , , . ( )- . , . , . 2007 130 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() (i) ( , ) :- ; - - . . / ( ) . , .(ii) , . , , . 2007 131 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() ( , ) . . , , , , .() . - . , , , .(i) , , , , , (), ( ) . ( , ) . , , . 2007 132 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() () (i) , , () ( ) . , . , . . . . , . . , . , , , , . . , . . (: , , , , ). , , . 2007 133 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() ()(ii) . . , , . .(iii) , . . ( )- . , . . , - . , , . 2007 134 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() ()(iv) a . , . . , . .() , , , . .() . . . , . ( )- . . . . , , ( , ), . , . . 2007 135 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() () . . , . : , 25 - 60 , 8 - 10 5 - 8 6 - 8 , , , , . . ( ), , .() - .() . . ( ) . . , . 2007 136 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() () . . . . ( ) . , . , ( )- .() , ()- . . . . ( )- . . . 2007 137 - 2007 12 312.2 Y ()() . - . , . , . , .() (i) .(ii) , , . , . 2007 138 - 2007 12 312.3 - ()- .* 7 : * 1 - * 7 29 - * 8 2- * 9 * 10 , . 7 - . , , . :* 3 ( ) - * 8 - * 1 () - * 23 () - * 27 - * 2 ( ) - - * 32 ( )- : , 1: - * 11 - 2 * 12 - * 13 - * 14 - 19- , , , , . 2007 139 - 2007 12 312.4 . . : , , . , , . .3. 2007 2006 - 6,485 322 9,361 2,522 , 31,995 14,876 , 573 1,059 48,414 18,779 4. 2007 2006 7,900 4,359 565 217 7,990 2,948 2,057 548 383 - 18,895 8,072 2007 140 - 2007 12 315. , 2007 2006 726 3,021 - (505) /() 27,757 (87) 1,485 - - 54 8 217 (145) (391)29,831 2,309 6. /()2007 2006 7,761 1,004 /() 19,198 (8,491)26,959 (7,487)7. 2007 2006 ( 19) 39,329 - 122 - 39,451 - 2007 141 - 2007 12 318. 2007 2006 45 443 ( 18) 857 877 ( 9) 1,469 1,280 550 - 17 17 92 87 252 197 540 451 , 286 234 86 88 229 235 150 141 317 617 4,890 4,667 9. 2007 2006 , 1,145 999 , 324 281 1,469 1,280 10. 2007 2006 6,590 5,080 442 15 , 27,889 - -1510 1,439 - 359 104 36,719 5,199 2007 142 - 2007 12 3111. , 2007 2006 232,665 156,851 - 120 , 129,900 8,051 , 2,730 2,848 365,295 167,870 12. , 2007 2006 698,335 502,227 90,764 89,612 41,225 20,032 , 865 985 , 3 3 831,192 612,859 ., , 60 (2006 42 )- . . ( 20- ) . . . ( 20- ) . 2007 143 - 2007 12 3113. . ( ) . . .2007 2006 . . . . - - - 11,195 140,024 - - - 11,195 140,024 - - - 77 15,290 - - 11,272 155,314 14. - 2007 2006 112,953 23,276 - 33,696 2,795 3,729 115,748 60,701 , , . . . 2007 144 - 2007 12 3115. 2007 2006 64,582 115,967 , .16. 2007 2006 14,531 10,533 4,761 7,659 - 3,249 130 130 , 19,422 21,571 : (130) (3,198) 19,292 18,373 (i) . , . 10% (2006 10%)- . 5.5% (2006 5.5%)- , .(iii) . . 2007 145 - 2007 12 3116. () . :2007 2006 1 1- 3,198 3,198 - - (3,068) - 12 31- 130 3,198 130 3,198 130 3,198 2007 12 31- , .17. 2007 2006 , 29,604 35,822 , ()- 20- . 10 , 0.5% (2006 0.5%)- . 2007 146 - 2007 12 3118. , 2007 12 31 2007 1- 1- 16,846 1,638 2,523 776 - 21,783 29 291 140 128 114 702 - (3) (7) (52) (1) (63) - 104 - - (104) - - (15) (79) - (9) (103)2007 12- 31- 16,875 2,015 2,577 852 - 22,319 : 6,495 2,015 2,577 852 - 11,939 10,380 - - - - 10,380 16,875 2,015 2,577 852 - 22,319 2007 1- 1- 1,722 597 800 388 - 3,507 ( 8) 275 175 283 124 - 857 - (3) (6) (43) - (52) - (11) (75) - - (86)2007 12- 31- 1,997 758 1,002 469 - 4,226 6,041 1,257 1,575 383 - 9,256 8,837 - - - - 8,837 14,878 1,257 1,575 383 - 18,093 2007 147 - 2007 12 3118. () , 2006 12 31 2006 1- 1-16,846 1,640 1,007 842 20,335 - 22 1,592 - 1,614 - (2)(24)(39)(65) - (22)(52)(27)(101)2006 12- 31-16,846 1,638 2,523 776 21,783 : 6,466 1,638 2,523 776 11,403 10,380 - - - 10,380 16,846 1,638 2,523 776 21,783 2006 1- 1-1,423 446 570 333 2,772 ( 8)299 171 286 121 877 - (1)(18)(39)(58) - (19)(38)(27)(84)2006 12- 31-1,722 597 800 388 3,507 6,117 1,041 1,723 388 9,269 9,007 - - - 9,007 15,124 1,041 1,723 388 18,276 (a) , . : 2002 5- 27 2007 12- 31- 574 (2006 12- 31- 585 ) .() 1,757 (2006 1,788 ) 21- . 2007 148 - 2007 12 3119. 2007 2006 12,826 13,102 26,503 6,191 2,416 216 41,745 19,509 : (39,329) (45)2,416 19,464 22.96 (2006 3.14 )- . 23 , , , . , , . . :2007 2006 1 1- 45 45 ( 7) 39,329 - (45) - 12 31- 39,329 45 39,329 45 39,329 45 2007 149 - 2007 12 3120. 2007 2006 103,425 70,845 . (2006 ) .21. 2007 2006 HSBC- 1,216 1,577 () - - 29,604 35,822 - 90,501 89,371 14,258 12,951 ()- 12,434 9,005 - 1,338 1,756 151 151 148,286 149,056 149,502 150,633 HSBC- HSBC10.2005HSBC 1.75%- . 18- . 2007 150 - 2007 12 3121. () () ()(i) , ()- , (, )- - 10 , 0.5% (2006 0.5%)- . . . (ii) ()- - - - . - - - . - 50.976 (2006 50.976 ), 90,501 (2006 89,371 ) . , . 40 . 1995 , 0.75% (2006 0.75%)- . 2005 . 2002 , 0.75% (2006 0.75%)- . 2012 . ()- - , , , , , . 1%-1.5% (2006 1% - 1.5%)- , 25-30 . 2007 151 - 2007 12 3121. () ()- - . . .22. 2007 2006 309 1,572 603,023 403,557 603,332 405,129 . . . 0 (2006 81,550 ), 0% (2006 5.14%)- , 0 (2006 79 ) 257,121 (2006 68,128 ), 0.5%- .23. . 2007 152 - 2007 12 3124. 2007 2006 2,750 1,260 , 27,889 - 7,707 15,423 38,346 16,683 25. 2007 2006 5,000 5,000 100 . .26. 2007 2006 1 1- 11,145 11,145 4,559 - 12 31- 15,704 11,145 ()- 40- , . , 2007 12 31- , . 2007 153 - 2007 12 3127. 2007 1 1- - 3,019 9,391 12,410 1,469 - - 1,469 2007 12 31- 1,469 3,019 9,391 13,879 2006 1 1- 67 3,019 18,231 21,317 (67) - - (67) - - (8,840)(8,840)2006 12 31- - 3,019 9,391 12,410 2007 154 - 2007 12 3127. ()(i) .(ii) 2002 .(iii) .28. . 100 .2007 2006 84 55 - , 15 14 99 69 2007 155 - 2007 12 3129. . . / / 2007 2007 2007 2006 2006 2006 23,197 23,197 - 20,792 0,792 - 12 831,192 831,192 - 612,859 12,859 - 13 - - - 11,195 1,195 - - - 14 112,953 112,953 - 23,276 23,276 - - 14 - - - 33,696 33,696 - - 14 2,795 * * 3,729 * * 15 64,582 64,582 - 115,967 115,967 - 16 19,292 16,783 (2,509)18,373 7,461 (912) 17 29,604 27,563 (2,041)35,822 32,514 (3,308) 19 - - - 19,258 19,258 - 13 - - - 11,272 11,272 - 20 103,425 103,425 - 70,845 70,845 - 21 149,502 138,418 11,084 150,633 139,848 10,785 22 603,332 603,332 - 405,129 405,129 - 23 171,027 171,027 - 148,542 148,542 - 6,534 6,565 * 14- , . 2007 156 - 2007 12 3129. () , . (1 ) , . . . . . . . 2007 157 - 2007 12 3130. , , . 31.3 - .12 12 2007 12 31 23,197 - 23,197 831,192 - 831,192 - 11,771 103,977 115,748 64,582 - 64,582 8,445 10,847 19,292 5,846 23,758 29,604 945,033 138,582 1,083,615 , 365,295 - 365,295 - 18,093 18,093 2,416 - 2,416 367,711 18,093 385,804 1,312,744 156,675 1,469,419 103,425 - 103,425 98,737 50,765 149,502 603,332 - 603,332 171,027 - 171,027 976,521 50,765 1,027,286 364,074 - 364,074 38,346 - 38,346 402,420 - 402,420 1,378,941 50,765 1,429,706 (66,197) 105,910 39,713 2007 158 - 2007 12 3130. ()12 12 2007 12 31 20,792 - 20,792 612,859 - 612,859 11,195 - 11,195 - 56,972 3,729 60,701 115,967 - 115,967 10,698 7,675 18,373 7,536 28,286 35,822 19,258 - 19,258 855,277 39,690 894,967 , 167,870