Monetary Policy Report October 2012

Monetary Policy Report

October 2012

Low repo rate stimulates the Swedish economy

Financial markets fairly calm…

Source: Reuters EcoWinGovernment bonds with approximately 10 years left to maturity, per cent

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

08 09 10 11 12

Spain

Italy

Germany

Sweden

…but there is still a long way to go

Underlying structural problems Problems in European banks Political decisions remain

At EU level At national level

Slow recovery in the euro area

GDP, annual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, IMF and the

Riksbank

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00 03 06 09 12 15

KIX

BRIC

USA

Euro area

Weak demand for Swedish exports

Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data. The export market aims to measure demand for imports in the countries to which Sweden exports. This is calculated by aggregating the imports of 32 countries and covers around 85 per cent of the Swedish export market.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the

Riksbank

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

Swedish export market

Swedish exports

Households consuming at a relatively good pace

Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

06 08 10 12 14

Households' consumption

Mean 1981-

Swedish economy slowing down

GDP, quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

September

October

Unemployment rising slightly

Unemployment, per cent of the labour force, aged 15-74, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

September

October

Low but rising inflation

Annual percentage change. CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the

Riksbank

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

CPIF

CPI

Low repo rate stimulates the economy

Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

September

October

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

90%75%50%OutcomeForecast

Forecast, not a promise

Stronger demand in Sweden

Problems in the euro area worsen

Repo rate, per cent, quarterly averages Source: The Riksbank

Low repo rate stimulates the Swedish economy

Extra

Competition-weighted nominal exchange rate, TCW and KIX

Index, 18 November 1992 = 100. TCW and KIX refers to different aggregates of currencies on the basis of trading patterns. KIX weights are updated regularly and cover a larger group of countries. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.

Source: The Riksbank

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14

TCW

KIX