Monetary Policy Junhui Qian, 2014 November. Content Basics Monetary policy during the reform Reserve requirement Central bank loans Rediscounting Interest.

Monetary PolicyJunhui Qian, 2014 November

Content

• Basics• Monetary policy during the reform

• Reserve requirement• Central bank loans• Rediscounting• Interest rate policy • Exchange rate policy• Open market operations• Credit policy and window guidance

• Balance sheet of the central bank• Monetary policy in the future

Functions of A Modern Central B ank

• Banking for the government• Control availability of money and credit• Operate payment and settlement system• Lender of last resort• Surveillance and regulation of commercial banks

Objectives of Monetary Policy

• Low and stable inflation• Low employment (high economic growth)• Financial market stability• Stable foreign exchange rates

Intermediate Objectives of Monetary Policy• Interest rates• Money supply• Base money: currency in circulation + reserve• Money multiplier: Money supply (M2 or M1) / Base money

• Total credit and loans

Instruments of Monetary Policy

• Interbank overnight lending rate (e.g., US federal funds rate)• Discount window (e.g., China’s Standing Lending Facility)• Reserve requirement• Central bank loans (Lending to financial institutions) and

rediscounting• Issuance of central bank bills/papers• Open market operations• Trading treasury bonds• Repo and reverse repo

What Makes A Central Bank Successful?• Independence• Group decision making• Accountability and transparency• Explicit goals• Disclosure requirements

• A coherent policy framework• Rule-based monetary policy• Trade-off among conflicting goals

Central Banking Before The Reform

• Credit and cash plans were part of the central economic planning. • The planner controlled how much credit and cash should be issued

and who should receive them. • With virtually no financial market, the planner easily controlled

money supply.

The Birth of The Chinese Central Bank• Before the reform, PBC was a bureau under the Ministry of Finance in charge of monetary

matters for economic planning. • The Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) was formed in Jan 1979 and was in charge of banking for

the rural sector. • Bank of China was spun off in March 1979 and specialized in foreign currency management. • On Sep 17 of 1983, the State Council decided to transform PBC into a central bank in charge of

monetary policy. Mechanism for reserve requirements and lending to commercial (special) banks was established.

• The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China was formed in Jan 1984 and took away the industrial and commercial banking business of PBC.

• By 1984, PBC became a de facto sole-purpose central bank. • In 1995, the Law of People’s Bank of China was passed, PBC became the central bank of China

formally.

General Trends of Chinese Central Banking• More and more independent, from the Ministry of Finance, from the

local governments, and in the future, from the State Council. • In 1995, overdraft by MF was forbidden.• In 1998, nine big branches replaced the old 31 provincial branches.

• Rely less and less on command, and more and more on indirect control through market-based instruments.

Content

• Basics• Monetary policy during the reform

• Reserve requirement• Central bank loans• Rediscounting• Interest rate policy • Exchange rate policy• Open market operations• Credit policy and window guidance

• Balance sheet of the central bank• Monetary policy in the future

Reserve Requirement

• Reserve requirement was established in 1984. • Two accounts: deposit reserve and settlement reserve

• The deposit reserve ratio (DRR) was 20% for enterprise deposits, 40% for savings deposits, 25% for rural deposits.

• In 1985, the DRR was unified as 10%. • The DRR was raised to 12% in 1987 and 13% in 1988 to combat inflation. • In 1989, the settlement reserve was required to keep 5%-7% of all deposits.

• In 1998, two accounts were unified. • The DRR was lowered from 13% to 8%. • Banks may keep excess reserve in PBC.• Deposit reserves are interest-bearing.

Required Reserve Ratio (1998-2012)

19981998

19981999

19991999

20002000

20002001

20012001

20022002

20022003

20032003

20042004

20042005

20052005

20062006

20062007

20072007

20082008

20082009

20092009

20102010

20102011

20112011

20120%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Small Banks Big Banks

Interest Rate on Reserve

5/15/1993 7/11/1993 5/1/1996 8/23/1996 10/23/1997 3/21/1998 7/1/1998 12/7/1998 6/10/1999 2/21/2002 12/21/2003 3/17/2005 11/27/20080.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

Interest Rate on Reserve

Required Reserve Excess Reserve

Central Bank Loans

• The central bank loan is the central bank’s lending to commercial banks and other financial institutions.• CBL was a major source of base money expansion. • Since 1994, position for purchasing foreign exchange became the

major source of base money expansion. • Since 1998, central bank loans was used in adjusting lending structure

in the economy or injecting liquidity to financial institutions in distress.

Rediscounting

• The central bank may inject liquidity into the banking sector by discounting commercial papers held by banks. • Rediscounting often happens when banks are in distress.• Rediscounting was one of the major instruments in the 1990s, and

was used both in adjusting structural composition of liquidity provision and in signaling policy orientation. • The role of rediscounting has declined since 2000.

Interest Rate Policy

• Before 1995, almost all interest rates were determined by PBC.• Since 1995, PBC has been persistently liberalizing interest rates. • In June 1996, interbank lending rate was liberalized. • In June 1997, interbank bond market was opened. Repo rate and interest

rate on bonds were liberalized. • In Sep 1998, interest rates on the issuance of policy bonds and treasury

bonds were liberalized. • In Sep 1999, treasury bonds started to be auctioned in the interbank

bond market. • In Jan 2007, SHIBOR (ShangHai InterBank Offer Rates) was started.

Liberalization of Interest Rates on Deposits and Loans• The ordering the interest rate liberalization: first foreign, then

domestic; first money market, then loans, then deposits; first long-term big-denomination, then short-term small denomination. • By Nov 2013, only the domestic deposit rate has a upper-limit. Other

interest rates, including those on loans, are all determined by the market.

Interest Rates

1990/04

1990/09

1991/02

1991/07

1991/12

1992/05

1992/10

1993/03

1993/08

1994/01

1994/06

1994/11

1995/04

1995/09

1996/02

1996/07

1996/12

1997/05

1997/10

1998/03

1998/08

1999/01

1999/06

1999/11

2000/04

2000/09

2001/02

2001/07

2001/12

2002/05

2002/10

2003/03

2003/08

2004/01

2004/06

2004/11

2005/04

2005/09

2006/02

2006/07

2006/12

2007/05

2007/10

2008/03

2008/08

2009/01

2009/06

2009/11

2010/04

2010/09

2011/02

2011/07

2011/12

2012/05

2012/10

2013/03

2013/08

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Interest Rates

Interest Rate on One-Year Deposit Inflation Shibor

Exchange Rate Policy

• In 1994, RMB official exchange rate was merged with the market rate. • The interbank foreign exchange market was established. • The exchange rate was formally determined by the market. But PBC

intervened heavily. • From 1995-2005, the RMB/USD was de facto pegged at 8.3, with a

daily fluctuation capped in [-0.3%, 0.3%].• From July 2005, RMB no longer pegs USD, but a basket of foreign

currencies. RMB started to appreciate gradually.

RMB/USD Exchange Rate

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0000

1.0000

2.0000

3.0000

4.0000

5.0000

6.0000

7.0000

8.0000

9.0000

10.0000

RMB/USD Exchange Rate

RMB/USD Exchange Rate

Open Market Operations

• OMO in China include trading of treasury bonds, issuance of central bank bills, conducting repo and reverse repo.• Bonds trading and repo operations are both limited by the quantity of bonds in

the open market. • In the late 1990s, purchasing treasury bonds was the major source of base money

expansion. • From 2003, PBC started to issue central bank bills. CBB became the major

instrument for sterilization of money expansion due to the purchase of foreign exchange reserve. • In 2007, the Ministry of Finance increase the supply of treasury bonds. PBC

increased the usage of repo and reverse repo in the adjustment of short-term liquidity in the market.

Credit Policy and Window Guidance

• Credit policy is still being used in adjusting supply of loans to different sectors, industries, geographic areas. • Window guidance is the central bank’s advice for commercial banks. It

is up to banks to accept it or not. • Before 1998, monetary policy was based more on command. It was

called “direct management”. • After 1998, monetary policy was achieved more by changing liquidity

conditions in the market and by window guidance. This was called “indirect management”.

Content

• Basics• Monetary policy during the reform

• Reserve requirement• Central bank loans• Rediscounting• Interest rate policy • Exchange rate policy• Open market operations• Credit policy and window guidance

• Balance sheet of the central bank• Monetary policy in the future

Balance Sheet of PBCAssets Liabilities

Foreign Assets (FA) Foreign Exchange (Forex) Monetary Gold (Gold) Other Foreign Assets (OFA)

Reserve Money (RM, “Base Money”) Currency Issue (CI) Deposits of Other Depository Corporations (DODC)

Deposits of financial corporations excluded from Reserve Money (DFCXR)

Claims on Government (CG) Deposits of Government (DG)

Claims on Private Sector Claims on Other Depository Corporations (CODC) Claims on Other Financial Corporations (COFC) Claims on Non-financial Sector (CNFS)

Bond Issue (BI)

Foreign Liabilities (FL)

Own Capital (OC)

Other Assets (OA) Other Liabilities (OL)

A Simplified Liability Sheet

　 Liabilities of Central Bank (V)

　 C D E 　

　 　Currency　　

Deposit of Other Depository CorporationsDeposit of GovernmentBond Issue

Equity　　

𝑉=𝐶+𝐷+𝐸

The total liability (or total value) of PBC can be decomposed into:

The Great Accommodation: Debt Financing Replaces Currency Issuance

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Share of D. Financing (%) Share of Currency (%) Other

The Rise and Fall of CBB

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Bond Issue Share Deposit Reserve Share Other

Monetary Policy in the Future

• The transition of Chinese central banking is still ongoing. • The following transitions has yet to achieve:• A more independent central bank. • Quantity target gives way to interest rate target• Complete interest rate and foreign exchange rate liberalization