Moldova Country Program Gretel Gambarelli World Bank Chisinau, 28 October 2009.

Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems

Moldova Country Program

Gretel Gambarelli

World Bank

Chisinau, 28 October 2009

2

Source: Adapted from IPCC 2007.

Unavoidable warming

What do we have to prepare for?

Source: Commission of the European Communities, 2009.

What is Adaptation?

Why acting now is important? (1/2)

Because:1. Many of the measures that will help deal with future

climate (“adaptation to climate change”) can also help resolve today’s problems.

Example: As a consequence of climate change, droughts may become more frequent and severe. Investing in drought-tolerant crops can help reduce future losses due to climate change, but also today’s damages when the climate is drier than normal.

Sunflowers in Moldova, summer 2007

Why acting now is important? (2/2)

Because:2. The more you are prepared, the lesser the damage

caused by future climate will be.

Example: • Under current climate agro-

meteorological services in Moldova potentially yield economic benefits of EUR 3.6 million per year (VTT, Finland).

• Under climate change, agro-meteorological services can further reduce agricultural losses and increase economic benefits

Which questions to ask about adaptation?

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What are the current climate-related risks

in agriculture?

What coping strategies are

being used today? Are they enough?

What are future climate risks given

vulnerability of agriculture to climate

change?

What are the non-climate related

drivers of future risk and vulnerability?

Are current coping measures sufficient to deal with future

problems?

Improve adaptation to current climate

Identify adaptation to future climate

No more action

needed

NO

NO

YES

YES

What are the objectives of this program in Moldova? (1/2)

Work with Moldovan people, experts, and officials to better understand:

1. What problems may arise in agriculture from future changes in climate

2. What can be done now to avoid or reduce likely future damages to agricultural production and the economy and take advantage of any opportunities (ADAPTATION)

Source: Commission of the European Communities, 2009.

Bette

r un

derst

and

Stim

ulat

e

Identify and

analyze

What are the objectives of this program in Moldova? (2/2)

More specifically this program will help you…1. Analyze the potential impacts on the agricultural sector from

climate change at the agro-ecological zone scale.2. Assess the country’s existing adaptive capacity.3. Identify the most vulnerable regions and production systems. 4. Explore possible adaptation options that can decrease vulnerability

– and in some cases exploit new opportunities. 5. Analyze and prioritize adaptation options using a combination of

economic and participatory approaches.6. Assess potential barriers to adaptation (i.e., policy, economic,

institutional, and technological, factors).7. Assess capacity gaps and needs of local and national institutions

and agricultural producers to implement adaptation options. 8. Develop a menu of Climate Change Adaptation Options for

Agriculture that identifies priorities for investments, capacity development and policy improvement.

What should the menu of adaptation options look like?

Adaptation options should:

• Be practical and operational • Be cost-effective• Improve resilience to climate change and increase

productivity ( “win-win”) • Where possible also help reduce GHG emissions (“win-

win-win”) • Be “robust” to a range of climate futures

IMPORTANT: we cannot precisely predict how climate change will hit Moldova, but we can identify adaptation measures that will be beneficial in a number of future climate scenarios

How is this program organized?Step Purpose When

1 Preparation of draft “Country Note”

Collect existing information on climate change in Moldova and risks for agriculture

Past months

2 Consultation Workshop

Hear from local people/experts:• what they know of the impacts of climate change in Moldova• what else they would like to know• what they think can be done to adapt

Today!!

3 Climate Change Impact Assessment and draft menu of

Adaptation Options

Generate more information of what may happen to specific crops and analyze possible measures that can be taken (now or later) to limit yield losses or take advantage of opportunities.

Summer 2010

4

National Conference • Present the findings of the study• Discuss the adaptation options, and advantages and disadvantages of each• Agree on the best ones for Moldova and explore possibilities for implementation

Summer / fall 2010

5 Regional Knowledge Exchange workshop

Hear what other countries have decided to do to prepare for climate change

Spring 2011

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Choose modeling approach based on

information needs and data

Develop DraftCountry Note

Find out what else you know about climate change in Moldova

and possible ways to adapt

Develop a Draft menu of adaptation options(short-, medium-, and

long-term)

Improve the preparedness of Moldova to reduce

the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change

Final Menu of Adaptation Options

for Moldova

Final CountryNote

Results from Impact

Assessment

Agree on information gaps and needs for additional analysis

Consultation and Awareness

Raising Workshop

NationalDissemination and

Consensus Building Conference

Regional Knowledge

Exchange workshop

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THEME 1. • What are the main risks associated with climate change (due to both exposure and sensitivity) in Moldova?

THEME 2. • How might climate change impact the agriculture, livestock and forestry sectors in Moldova?• Which current problems will be exacerbated by climate change?• What new problems may arise?• What additional information / analysis is needed to better understand future impacts?

THEME 3. • Which measures are used to deal with today’s climate-related issues? • To what extent can current measures & strategies be strengthened to deal with future climate change?• What new measures / strategies are necessary to prepare for climate change?

Today’s objectives Discuss the following questions:

This program will help you better understand and discuss future climate risks and what you can do to adapt.

We need your full participation to ensure that the program makes the best use of and builds on local knowledge.

You will then have to decide whether, when and how to implement adaptation measures, and how you might like us and other development partners to help.