Module_5_-_Climate_Change_Adaptation.pdf

Module 5 Climate Change Adaptation

Global Policy Response Interest Groups UNFCCC Groups UNFCCC Parameters UNFCCC Overview The Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Mechanisms Questions and Flaws in the Response Other Roads Equity Considerations Toward a Global Regime Equity Issues

Topics

Climate Change Effects

Temperature variations, Especially at higher latitudes More frequent extreme weather events Shifts in climate zones Sea level rise Uncertainty as to all of the above Social and biological processes Even more uncertainty here

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)

The Kyoto Protocol Joint Implementation Clean Development Mechanism Emissions Trading Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Global Policy Response

Climate Change Interest Groups

EU Umbrella Group (Australia, Canada, Iceland, Japan,

New Zealand, Norway, Russia, the Ukraine, U.S.) Economies in Transition G77 (plus China) Oil Producers Users of Fossil Fuels, especially those that would have

difficulty switching

UNFCCC Groups

Annex I: Developed Countries (including those with Economies in Transition)

Essentially OECD Take Lead in Climate Change Mitigation Annex II: Developed Countries (excluding Economies

in Transition) Provide additional financial resources Technology Transfer Non-Annex I Countries

Emissions of CO2 (in Mt) from Fuel Combustion(Statement by Michael Zammit Cutajar, www.pewclimate.org/events/cutajar.cfm)

Total CO2 emissions(Mt)

CO2 Emissions per capita (t/inhabitant)

1990 1998 90-98% 1998

World 21,290 22,726 6.7% 3.9

Non-Annex I Parties 6,826 8,622 26.3% 1.9

Annex I Parties 13,826 13,383 -3.2% 11.0

Annex II Parties 9,957 10,972 10.2% 12.0

Economies in Transition

3,868 2,592 -33.0% 8.2

Top 20 countries (1998 emissions) plus EU(Statement by Michael Zammit Cutajar, www.pewclimate.org/events/cutajar.cfm)

Total CO2 emissions (Mt) CO2 t emissions per capita

1990 1998 90-98% 1998USA 4,844 5,410 11.7% 20.1China (+ Hong Kong) 2,389 2,893 21.1% 2.3Russian Federation 2,308 1,416 -38.7% 9.6Japan 1,048 1,128 7.6% 8.9India 595 908 52.7% 0.9Germany 967 857 -11.4% 10.4United Kingdom 572 550 -4.0% 9.3Canada 421 477 13.3% 15.8Italy 402 426 6.1% 7.5France 369 376 1.9% 6.4Republic of Korea 232 370 59.4% 8.0Ukraine 675 359 -46.8% 7.1Mexico 297 356 20.0% 3.7South Africa 291 354 21.5% 8.5Poland 348 320 -8.1% 8.3Australia 259 311 20.1% 16.6Brazil 201 296 47.2% 1.8Saudi Arabia 160 271 68.8% 13.1Iran 197 260 31.9% 4.2Spain 212 254 20.1% 6.5European Union 3152 3171 0.6% 8.5

UNFCCC Overview In 1992, countries joined an international treaty, the United

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, to cooperatively consider what they could do to limit average global temperature increases and the resulting climate change, and to cope with whatever impacts were, by then, inevitable.

By 1995, countries realized that emission reductions provisions in the Convention were inadequate. They launched negotiations to strengthen the global response to climate change, and, two years later, adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol legally binds developed countries to emission reduction targets. The Protocols first commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012. The second commitment period began on 1 January 2013 and will end in 2020.

There are now 195 Parties to the Convention and 192 Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. The UNFCCC secretariat supports all institutions involved in the international climate change negotiations, particularly the Conference of the Parties (COP), the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties (CMP), the subsidiary bodies (which advise the COP/CMP), and the COP/CMP Bureau (which deals mainly with procedural and organizational issues arising from the COP/CMP and also has technical functions).

UNFCCC Overview

UNFCCC Objectives

Stabilization of GHGs at level that would prevent dangerous impacts to climate system

Time-frame that will allow ecosystems to adapt Food production not threatened Economic development to proceed

Article 3.1 of UNFCCC

The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof.

UNFCC Principles

Intergenerational equity Intragenerational equity Common but differentiated responsibilities Article 3.1 of UNFCC RIO Principle 7, In view of the different contributions to

global environmental degradation, States have common but differentiated responsibilities.

Precautionary Principle The Right to Sustainable Development

Intragenerational Equity (1)

Address inequities within existing economic system RIO Principle 5 cooperate to eradicate poverty in order

to decrease the disparities in standards of living and better meet the needs of the majority of the people of the world.

Intragenerational Equity (2)

Recognize special needs of developing countries Financial assistance Capacity-building Technology Transfer Conditionality of responsibilities on FA, CB, and TT Common but differentiated responsibilities Developed countries take the lead in combating climate change and its

effects Fair and Equitable Sharing of the Benefits CBD (genetic resources) Fisheries (allocation) LOS, Article 194(1) States shall prevent, reduce and control marine pollution using the

best practicable means at their disposal and in accordance with their capabilities

UNFCCC Institutions

COP Subsidiary body for science & technological advice Subsidiary body for implementation Secretariat Financial Mechanism GEF (including capacity building; adaptation; technology

transfer; climate change mitigation; economic diversification)

Other Related Institutions IPCC: independent body founded by UNEP and WHO

Kyoto Protocol

Legally binding and specific emission reduction for UNFCCC Annex I parties

Developed Countries (including those with Economies in Transition)

These commitments are set out in Annex B. No new commitments for Non-Annex I Developing countries emissions will exceed

developed countries in 5-30 years

Kyoto Mechanisms (1) Emission reductions Removals by Sinks Can bank reductions for subsequent commitment periods Joint Implementation (JI) Annex I countries can in engage in joint projects and share

the emission reductions Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Annex I parties can undertake projects in Non-Annex I

countries and obtain emission reduction credits Emission Trading Annex I countries can by and sell emission reduction units

on an international market

Kyoto Mechanisms (2)

No set limits on use of JI, CDM and Trading, BUT In reports, a State must demonstrate that use is

supplemental to domestic action Joint fulfillment Any group of Annex I countries can enter into an

agreement to reallocate their commitments Unlike CDM. JI, Trading, not subject to further rules.

The Kyoto Protocol establishes a mechanism whereby a developed country can receive emissions reductions units or carbon credits when it helps to finance projects that reduce net emissions in another developed country.

If a biomass burning power station is being built in a developed country, another develop country can help finance it and claim the same percentage of carbon credits for their own total

Joint Implementation (Article 6)

The purpose of the Clean Development Mechanism is to assist Annex 2, developing countries, in achieving sustainable development, and in contributing to the ultimate objective of the Convention, while assisting Parties included in Annex I, developed countries, in achieving compliance with their emission targets agreed to under Kyoto.

In other words, if a developed country does not have the laws, regulations etc to finance and build GHG reducing technology in their own country, go to the developing world do it there and claim the credits for themselves.

Clean Development Mechanism(Article 12)

Emissions trading is a mechanism whereby (Annex I) Parties with emissions commitments may trade their emission allowances with other (Annex I) Parties. The aim is to improve to overall flexibility and economic efficiency of making emissions cuts.

Other countries that can easily meet their target, can sell their excess credits to countries that can not meet their own targets by their own means

Emissions Trading (Article 17)

Big Questions Facing Policymakers

By how much should GHGs be reduced and in what timeframe?

What is the best set of actions to undertake?

What institutions, administrative processes and mechanisms should be established to carry out specified actions?

How to allocate the burden of reductions

Other Roads

In light of lack of commitments by developing countries, in retrospect, should developed countries have pursued a develop-country only agreement?

Montreal Protocol Model US-China Agreement Phase out low-volume GHGs (HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) Consider GHG reduction in concert with sustainability

and biodiversity

Why Equity Considerations Impacts Imbalance between who contributed to climate change

and who feels impact Imbalance between who benefits from climate change

and who suffers Adaptation Differences in ability to adapt to climate change Mitigation Implications of Kyoto measures that can be used to

mitigate Procedural fairness

Where Equity Considerations

Allocation Which Countries should reduce emissions and by how much Costs Which Countries should pay for reduction/adaptation and

how much? Procedure/Process How do we go about answering above questions?

Toward A Global Regime?

Thresholds for required participation? Responsibility a. Total country emissions b. Per capita emissions Capacity a. Per capita welfare

Toward A Global Regime? (2)

Single Criteria Multiple Criteria Multi-stage, Graduated Approach No quantitative commitments Intensity Targets Emission Stabilization Reductions

Equity-related Issues (1)

What relevance, if any, is it that developed countries emissions may have occurred in ignorance of the effects?

Equitable to allow Economies in Transition emissions based on 1990 emissions, emissions that presently do not exist?

3. What relevance that developing countries emissions will soon exceed developed?

Equity-related Issues (2)

What of developing countries refusal to even discuss possible future commitments or to condition such commitments to developed countries reaching targets in light of uneven impacts and capacities to respond?

Relative merits of GHC Intensity (emissions per economic output versus) emissions per capita?

Equity-related Issues (3)

Is eventually capping and converging country emissions at an equal emissions per capita rate fair? That is, are windfalls for some countries justified (e.g., Brazil, with abundant hydropower?)

Should governments loosen patent and other protections that would otherwise accrue to firms that have developed GHG reducing technologies?

Fairness of CDM which only provides credits to developed countries?

Climate change is happening Effective management needs to happen now Substantial Policy response has occurred More effective policy response needs to be developed A hybrid multi-faceted response is essential The difficulty will be trying to convince politics that

make decisions only on short time scales But we must not fall into the trap of growing more to

make more

Conclusion

Lomborg, The Sceptical Environmentalist, 1998, Chapter 24, 258 322,

McKibbin and Wilcoxin, Climate Change Policy After Kyoto, 2002, Chapter 4, 51 60

Dresner, The Principles of Sustainability, Chapter 4, 38 - 59.

Optional Reading

Global Warming: Early Warning Signs, http://www.climatehotmap.org/

Australian greenhouse Office -http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change - http://unfccc.int/2860.php

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -http://www.ipcc.ch/

Pew Climate Centre - http://www.pewclimate.org/

Websites to look at

Module 5 Climate Change AdaptationTopicsClimate Change EffectsGlobal Policy ResponseClimate Change Interest GroupsUNFCCC GroupsEmissions of CO2 (in Mt) from Fuel Combustion(Statement by Michael Zammit Cutajar, www.pewclimate.org/events/cutajar.cfm) Top 20 countries (1998 emissions) plus EU (Statement by Michael Zammit Cutajar, www.pewclimate.org/events/cutajar.cfm)UNFCCC OverviewUNFCCC OverviewUNFCCC ObjectivesArticle 3.1 of UNFCCCUNFCC PrinciplesIntragenerational Equity (1)Intragenerational Equity (2)UNFCCC InstitutionsKyoto ProtocolKyoto Mechanisms (1)Kyoto Mechanisms (2)Joint Implementation (Article 6)Clean Development Mechanism(Article 12)Emissions Trading (Article 17)Big Questions Facing PolicymakersOther RoadsWhy Equity ConsiderationsWhere Equity ConsiderationsToward A Global Regime?Toward A Global Regime? (2)Equity-related Issues (1)Equity-related Issues (2)Equity-related Issues (3)ConclusionOptional ReadingWebsites to look at 35