module10_Rawlings.pdf

8/13/2019 module10_Rawlings.pdf

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R E S I L I E N C E

,

E Q U I T

Y ,

O P P O R T U

N I T Y

The World Banks2012-2022Social Protection

& Labor Strategy

May 7 11, 2012Washington, D.C.


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Main messages

1. Social protection and labor programs andpolicies are necessary in a risky, changingworld

2. Social protection and labor programs andpolicies work, if well-designed as part ofsystemic approaches

But there are major remaining agendas in termsof coverage (including to LICs and fragilecontexts), responsiveness and productivity

3. To succeed, the Banks work in this area willhave to be country-tailored, knowledge-driven and collaborative.

2


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Whats new in this new strategy? Stronger focus on solutions and SPL systems

that together help people deal with multiplerisks.

Emphasis on the need for increased engagementin lower-income and fragile contexts. Stress on the central role of jobs and enhanced

productivity as the pathway to opportunity. Reconfirmation of the central importance of

appropriate evidence and knowledge in the SPLpractice, especially South-South.

3


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SPL contributes to growth by. Building and protecting human capital Providing the security to invest in higher-riskhigher-return

activities Promoting greater labor market mobility Stabilizing aggregate demand, notably during recessions Enhancing productive assets and infrastructure (for example,

through public works) Reducing inequality in society Making growth-enhancing reforms more politically feasible

SPL is also increasingly recognized as a vehicle for implementingsocial contracts, securing peoples rights, and fulfilling societysobligations

source: Alderman and Yemtsov (2012) 5


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Message 2: SPL programs work, especiallyif remaining challenges are addressed

6

75 70 65

4632

22

12 17

9

21

22 43

13 1323

2746

33

SSAfrica

MENA SAR LAC EAP ECA

No transfer

Only social insurance

Only social assistance

Labor market programs

P e r c e n t

Source: SP Atlas

% of households receiving transfers

Low coverage

Socialwelfare

or related, 35%

Socialsecurity/labor ,

9%Health,4%

Education, 2%Social

Fund,1%

Other,4%

OutsideGovern-ment,45%

Origin of cash transfers in Sub-SaharanAfrica

Source: Garcia and Moore ( 2012 )

Fragmentation

$36.9

$66.2

$78.3

$4.6 $6.7$9.5

Low-skill jobs

Medium-skill jobs

High-skill jobs

RichercountriesPoorercountries

Low productivity

Source: Acemoglu and Zilibotti (2000)


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.so the primary focus of the WorldBanks SPL Strategy is

To help developing countries move from fragmented approaches to more harmonized

systems for social protection and labor

8


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Program

Program

Program Program

Levels of a SPL System

9

Administration level:

Aim: Building basic subsystemsto support one or moreprograms for security, equity oropportunity

Admin. sub-

systems

Program level: Aim: Improving design ofexisting programs andharmonizing across portfolio ofprograms

Policy Level:

Aim : Ensuring overall policycoherence across programs andlevels of government


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Message 3: To succeed, the Banks workwill have to be

Partnerships that arebroad and synergistic

across sectors and

actors 10

Country-Tailored

CollaborativeKnowledge-Driven

Knowledge that isfocused on results andlearning from South-South sharing of

practice

Tailoring operations tocountry context, and toevidence of whatworks


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From strategy to results: Measuringsuccess

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Quality of World Bank activities tosupport partner countries

Changes in SPL outcomes andoutputs in countries attributableto World Bank support

Country progress on keydevelopment outcomes

Percentage of satisfactoryprojects (IEG Ratings)

Percentage of projects withsatisfactory M&E (ICRs)

Number of downloads ofSP&L knowledge products

Number of countries involvedin World Bank sponsoredSouth-South learning events

Percentage of SPL staff timespent on cross-support to

countries in other regions Percentage of lending

operations in IDA countrieshaving co-financing partners

Percentage of World Bank SPLlending operations supportingSPL systems

Number of countries withWorld Bank SPL engagement

Number of beneficiaries ofWorld Bank supported SSNprograms*

Number of beneficiaries ofWorld Bank supported labormarket programs*

Poverty gap at $1.25 per day(PPP)

Percentage of population inthe poorest quintile coveredby SPL programs

Share of working agepopulation accruing pensionsrights

Pension beneficiaries toelderly (>65) population ratio(old age, survivor, disability

and social pensions) Percentage of children (7-14)

employed Labor productivity: GDP per

person employed Youth/adult unemployment

rate


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ANNEXES

12


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Building the strategy on strengths: Astrong counter-cyclical portfolio

16

2.17%

1.55% 1.77%

3.16%

4.37%

9.09%9.65%

7.30%

10.37%

5.53%

4.83%

11.61%

5.72%

7.71%

5.47%

3.27%

2.32%

10.62%

6.55%

13.22%

0.93%

2.76%2.30% 2.33%

5.87%

2.70%

3.76%

6.24%5.64%

7.71%

2.41%

7.17%

3.99%4.25%

4.61%

5.47%

2.56%

3.96%

7.01%

5.15%

FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY

IBRD IDA

AsianCrisis

LACCrisis

FFFCrisis

Social Protection andLabors Share in NewLending Commitments


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and excellent portfolioperformance

17

FY11 Average

FY98-FY11 Disbursement Ratio 42 44 Bank average 21 21

Commitment at Risk (%) 9 13 Bank average 14 16 % Proactivity 71 80 Bank average 61 78

Unsatisfactory Projects (%) 8 11 Bank average 12 12 Disbursement Lag (%) -7.2 15 Bank average 19 32

( indicates better than Bank average)

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