Module: Integrated Water Resources Management ( · PDF fileModule: Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) ... Lecture “Scenario Technique in Water Resources Management” 8/21

1/21Lecture Scenario Technique in Water Resources Management
Module: Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)
Topic of the lecture:Scenario Technique in Water Resources Management
Dipl.-Ing. Axel Winterscheid
January 2007

Outline of the lecture
1. Introduction
2. Future aspects of IWRM
3. Introduction to scenario technique
4. Scenario generation
5. Scenario application
6. Conclusions
7. References

Introduction
Objectives of this module (among others):
Sustainable water management and development
Water management and global change
(description of the module - taken from the www.ihwb.tu-darmstadt.de)
Some statements
IWRM is not about tomorrow, it is about the future
IWRM refers to a desirable vision on the long-term, however, it must be
implemented in the present
These objectives formulate the need to take a long view into an uncertain future
Headword: Long-term strategic planning

Future aspects of IWRM
Long-term strategic planning
term 1 term 2
Term 1: Long term What is the time frame in the context of water resource
management? How it can be defined?
Term 2: It is the aim of strategic planning to develop strategies, including a mission
statement and strategic goals. Herein, the mission statement is a rough description of the
future and is used to guide action towards this overall target. It provides support to the
planner to transfer the content of the strategy into concrete action in order to reach the
goals set. (summary of many definitions)

Future aspects of IWRM
Criterium sustainability:
Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. (Brundtland Definition)
Criteria derived from planning praxis:
Large engineering works have long gestation times and long lifetimes
Altering land use in flood plains and alongside rivers within cities could take decades for
changes in planning policies to take effect
Criterium system dynamics:
There is inherent time delay in human and natural systems to react on changing conditions.
Therefore, actions need to be taken now to achieve the desired effect.

Future aspects of IWRM - uncertainty
Reference year 1995 25 years 50 years Example taken von van Asselt 2000)

Introduction to scenario technique
Aim of this lecture:
Provide you with tools and some theoretical background that will help you
developing plausible images of the future.
Three different approaches which are used to derive an image of the future
Extrapolation of current trends
Use of simulation models
Scenario technique

Extrapolation: Simple but only only useful for short-time prognosis

Use of simulation models a number of limitations exists
Subsystem Environment
Subsystem Society
space
timesocialprocesses
inte
ract
ion interaction
space
timehydrologicalprocesses

Introduction to scenario technique: What are scenarios and what is scenario technique?
Scenario technique is a collective term for all qualitative and quantitative methods
used to generate, analyse and use scenarios (Strter, 1988).
A scenario depicts a possible future situation and beyond that it
includes a description of the developments, which have led to that particular future
(Gausemeier et.al. 1996).
Scenarios are no utopias or speculations and do not originate from pure
imagination.

Introduction to scenario technique: Example for a scenario
Taken from: Great transition The promise and lure of the times aheaddeveloped by the Global Scenario Group

Most important scenario types:- Qualitative / quantitative - Explorative / normative- Baseline Scenario / Policy Scenario
Elements of a scenario:- A base year, time horizon and time steps- A geographic coverage- A description of step-wise change- Driving forces and uncertainties- Storyline
Introduction to scenario technique: Types & elements of a scenario

Step 1: Analysis of the problem situation- Defintion of a focal question- Definition of a case study- Analysis of the problem situation- Definition of the aims of the study
Step 2: Impact analysis- Key factors & -actors (local and context)- Predetermined elements & critical uncertainties- Descriptors to describe the impacts- Define subjects
Step 3: Generate basic scenariosMethod 1) Thematic scenariosMethod 2) Use of scenario-logics Method 3) Develop bundles of scenarios
Scenario generation: Steps 1/ 6 to 3 / 6

Problem Situation
Thematic Scenario 1
Thematic Scenario 2
Thematic Scenario 3
Final Scenario
HighMedium
Low
Key-factor 1
Key-factor 2
Key-factor 3
Combinatorylinkage
High
Medium
Low
High
Medium
Low
Method 1
Method 2 Method 3
Scenario generation: Step 3 / 6 in detail

Step 4: Scenario reduction and selection- Sensivity analysis- Consistency analysis
Step 5: Description of the Scenarios- Interpretation of the selected scenarios- Development of the storylines
Step 6: Analysis & application - Analysis of the consequences- Selection of indicators for future development- Identification von discontinuities- Transfer of scenarios into strategic planning
Scenario generation: Steps 4/ 6 to 6 / 6

Scenario application: results of a literature review
Scenario technique - scenario planning - scenario thinking - scenario analysis
System analysisUncertainty & riskInformation processing & structuring
Mental models & perceptionGroup & organisational learningScenarios as a nedium for communication
Decision makingDevelopment of strategies & options for action
Information management
Communication
Planning &Decision making
Help stakeholders, policymakers, and experts to
'think big' about an environmental issue []
Alcamo (2001)Scenarios are one of the
main tools used to address the complexity and uncertainty of future
challenges.
Nakicenovic (eds.) (2001)
These multiple, but equally plausible futures served the
purpose of a test-bed for policies and plans. Royal Dutch
Shell Group (2001)

Scenario application: scenarios a suitable instrument for IWRM?
It is argued that both problem frameworks largely intersect with each other the
one in which scenario technique is applied and the one outlined by IWRM
The intersection of both problem frameworks:
- it is something about the future
- the issue under consideration is complex
- there is irreducible uncertainty
- decisions are embedded into a collaborative and conversation-
based process (elements are: Intuitions, emotions, interests, conflicts, etc...)
Therefore, the recommendation is given that scenario technique
is a suitable instrument for IWRM.

Scenario application: Recommendation for IFRMOn a catchment wide level
Develop flood risk scenarios for major European river basin, e.g. Rhine.
They can serve as an universal reference
- for communication purposes
- for policy development.
On a local / regional scale
Carry out scenario studies for the future of cities and regions, which are
threatened by the exposure of flood risk.
Concrete application for these scenarios:
Catchment wide and regional scenarios as test beds for the flood risk
management plans under a future EU Directive for the management
of flood risk.

Conclusions
- Scenarios are a widely applied technique in management
science, environmental assessment and in the public sector.
- Both problem frameworks intersect: The one in which scenario
applications were recorded and the one defined by IWRM.
- Considerable benefit can be expected from the applications of
scenario technique in the field of IWRM, in particular for public
participation.
- Research is required to define the particular needs, procedures
and requirements

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