Module 4: Understanding Recent Trends in ICT Policy Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev/World Bank Sunday 8 March 2009.

Module 4: Understanding Recent Trends in ICT Policy

Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev/World BankSunday 8 March 2009

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Agenda

•Global trends a) Market competition

b) Private sector participation

c) Independent regulation

•MegaTrend 1: Convergence

•MegaTrend 2: From fixed to wireless

•MegaTrend 3: From narrowband to broadband

•Groupwork brainstorming exercise:

• What skills and competences might MCIT-IC require in five years time?

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Global Trends: Market competition

Competition status by region, 2008

Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

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Global Trends: Market competition

Competition status by service, 2008

Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

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Factors driving competition

•It works–Strong demonstration effect

of competitive market structures

•It is mandated–Regional (e.g., EU) and Global

(e.g., WTO) moves towards competitive market rules

•Facilitated by technology–Many new competitive niches

(e.g., VoIP, WiMAX, ISPs) –New techniques for spectrum

efficiency and sharing

•Intermodal competition–Incumbent PTO, cable TV,

Internet and spectrum-based services are main platforms

•Customers demand it–Large users, especially in the

financial sector, demand more choice and lower costs

Countries allowing VoIP competition

Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

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Private sector participation

Share of privately-owned incumbents,

By country (1991-2008) and by region (2008)

Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

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Independent regulation

Number of independent regulators,

In total (1990-2008) and by region (2008)

Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

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MegaTrend 1: Convergence

A typology of convergence

Source: World Bank (forthcoming) “Information and Communication for Development Report 2009”

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Examples of convergence

•Service convergence–Triple Play, Service bundling–eg FIOS in USA offers TV, high-

speed internet and voice services over an IP platform

•Network convergence–Next Generation Networks

(NGN)–eg KPTV in the Netherlands is

migrating away from separate mobile and fixed networks onto a single NGN

•Corporate convergence–Mergers, acquisitions, new

service development–eg France Telecom has

acquired Orange and rebranded its own mobile service and Wanadoo broadband under the Orange brand

•Regulatory convergence–eg, OFCOM created in UK from

five separate agencies

NTT: Shift from narrowband to broadband

Source: NTT Japan, cited in ITU Trends in Telecom Reform 2008.

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MegaTrend 2: From fixed to wireless

Number of users/subscribers, by service, 1995-2007 (in billions)

Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.

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Policy implications of shift to mobile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Fixed lines

Cellular Mobile

Mobile overtaking fixed in Egypt (per 100 inhabitants)

Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database, MCIT-IC

•Change in definition of universal service

–Universal service becomes possible, as well as universal access

–But operation of universal service funds may need review

•Spectrum becomes key platform for future growth

–Can available spectrum meet demand?

–Embracing market mechanisms for spectrum allocation

•Changing definitions of market dominance

–To what extent are fixed and mobile services substitutable?

–Will broadband internet be provided on a fixed or mobile platform? (or both)

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MegaTrends 3: From narrow to broadband

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Narrow band

Broadband (f ixed)

Broadband (mobile)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mobile broadband

Fixed broadband

Narrowband

Number and type of Internet subscribers worldwide, millions, %

Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database, and World Bank estimates

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From narrow to broadband in Egypt

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1'000.0

1'200.0

1'400.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Narrow band

Broadband

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Broadband

Narrowband

Number and type of Internet subscribers Egypt, millions, %

Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database, and MCIT-IC

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Group Work Exercise: Brainstorming

•Based on your understanding of the policy trends shaping the global and national ICT policy environments over the next five years:

–What are the likely future competences and skills that would be required in MCIT-IC to help prepare for the next five years?

• In the area of statistics and indicators?• In the requirement to provide policy guidance and

advice?• In serving the industry and people of Egypt?

–How can MCIT-IC prepare itself for these challenges?• Do these skills and competences already exist in-

house?• Can they be developed from among the existing staff?• What new staff profiles might be needed?