Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Moderation Doesn’t Pay
Mar 31, 2015
Moderation Doesn’t Pay
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
Moderation Doesn’t Pay
The State of Pennsylvania The Candidates The Campaign The Results
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The State of Pennsylvania
Race/Ethnicity 83.8% White 10.4% Black 2.4% Asian 4.7% Hispanic
Occupation 39.4% Blue Collar
60.6% White Collar
Median Income $49.7k in state $51.4k in U.S.
Partisanship D+2, PVI
’08 Presidential Vote
Obama, +10.4%
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Incumbent: Democrat Arlen Specter
Occupation Attorney
Political Experience
Candidate for Governor Pennsylvania, 1978
Candidate for U.S. Senate, 1976
District Attorney, 1966-1974
First Elected 1981
Committees Appropriations Environment and Public
Works Judiciary (former chair) Veterans Affairs (former
chair) Select Committee on
Intelligence (former chair)
Table 12.1 Congressional Vote Scores for Arlen Specter, 1981–2010
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Challenger: Republican Pat Toomey
Occupation Business Executive
Political Experience
House of Representatives, 1999-2005
Table 12.2 Congressional Vote Scores for Pat Toomey, 1999–2004
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Challenger: Democrat Joseph Sestak
Occupation Vice Admiral, U.S. Navy
Political Experience
House of Representatives, 2007-11
Table 12.3 Congressional Vote Scores for Joe Sestak, 2007–2010
Table 12.5 Campaign Finance for Pennsylvania Senate Campaigns, 2004–2010
Table 12.6 Campaign Activity by Outside Groups, 2010
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: The Polls
July September Late October0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Pat Toomey Joe Sestak
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Toomey’s “Protect PA”
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Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Toomey’s “Sad TV”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Toomey’s “Doctor”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Toomey’s “Clear Choice”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Toomey’s “Jobs”
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Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Toomey’s “Lifelong Democrat”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Toomey’s “$1Trillion”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Toomey’s “One Extreme Party”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Toomey’s “Death Tax”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Toomey’s “Cap and Trade”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “The Switch”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “Meet Joe”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “Not on Our Side”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “Seniors Speak Out”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “Belle”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “Security”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “Zero”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “Timeline”
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Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “The Difference”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “Independent”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Sestak’s “Leading”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Crossroads GPS’s “Add Up”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Americans for Tax Reform’s “Sestak Energy Prices”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: DSCC’s “Toomey Moved to China”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: DSCC’s “Wall Street’s Guy”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: DSCC’s “Wall Street Ties”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: DSCC’s “Modernizing and Growing”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: DSCC’s “Corning”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: AFLCIO ad criticizing the Chamber of Commerce
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Vote Vets’ “Trained”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: US Chamber of Commerce’s “Card Check”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: US Chamber of Commerce’s “100% Pelosi”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: NRSC’s “Status Quo Joe”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: NRSC using Sestak’s ads against him
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: NRA’s “You Are the Problem”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Club for Growth’s “Sestak’s Spending”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: Club for Growth saying Sestak = Pelosi, Reid and Obama
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: RCJ’s “Sestak Out of Touch”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: DNC’s “He Doesn’t Support Us”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: LCV’s “Toomey Drilling”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
The Campaign: MoveOn’s “Our Ad”
NOTE: Internet access required.
Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave
Table 12.4 Pennsylvania Statewide Election Results, 2010