Modelling the impact of automated driving - > Kröger/Kuhnimhof/Trommer • Modelling the impact of automated driving - private AV scenarios > 5th October 2016 DLR.de • Chart 1 Private autonomous vehicle scenarios for Germany and the US Lars Kröger, Tobias Kuhnimhof, Stefan Trommer European Transport Conference, 5 th October 2016
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Modelling the impact of automated driving · automation Level 4 High automation Level 5 Full automation Level 1 Driver assistance Level 0 No automation Figure 1: Levels of automation
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Modelling the impact of automated driving -
> Kröger/Kuhnimhof/Trommer • Modelling the impact of automated driving - private AV scenarios > 5th October 2016 DLR.de • Chart 1
Private autonomous vehicle
scenarios for Germany and the US
Lars Kröger, Tobias Kuhnimhof, Stefan Trommer
European Transport Conference, 5th October 2016
• Introduction
• Model scheme
• Vehicle Technology Diffusion Model
• Travel Demand Model
• Results
• Conclusion and Outlook
Outline
> Kröger/Kuhnimhof/Trommer • Modelling the impact of automated driving - private AV scenarios > 5th October 2016 DLR.de • Chart 2
• Motivation:
• Market entry of highly and fully automated vehicles (AVs) within next years
• AVs in private vehicle fleet and new mobility concepts (shared AVs)
• Impact of autonomous driving on travel demand
(VoTTS, new user groups)
Introduction
> Kröger/Kuhnimhof/Trommer • Modelling the impact of automated driving - private AV scenarios > 5th October 2016 DLR.de • Chart 3
Level 3
Conditional
automation
Level 2
Partial
automation
Level 4
High
automation
Level 5
Full
automation
Level 1
Driver
assistance
Level 0
No
automation
Figure 1: Levels of automation (SAE n. d.)
• Topic of this study:
Introduction of Level 4 and Level 5 vehicles into the private vehicle fleet,
Impact on travel demand, comparison of two scenarios in Germany and the US
• Basis for a subsequent study of new mobility concepts with shared AVs
Introduction
> Kröger/Kuhnimhof/Trommer • Modelling the impact of automated driving - private AV scenarios > 5th October 2016 DLR.de • Chart 4
Private
vehicle fleet
Shared
vehicle fleet
Diffusion of
autonomous
vehicles
Mode choice
Distance choice
New user groups
New mode option
Mode choice
Distance choice
New user groups
Methodology: Overview
> Kröger/Kuhnimhof/Trommer • Modelling the impact of automated driving - private AV scenarios > 5th October 2016 DLR.de • Chart 5
Figure 2: Overview of model scheme
AV diffusion
rates for car
segments
Impact on
travel
demand
• Estimation of number of newly registered AVs per year
• Differentiated by car segments (specific for the national car market: