Email: [email protected]http://www.land-ghg.net/ do, A. 1 ; ; Shepherd, A. 2 ; Wu, L. 2,3 , Topp, C. 3 , Moran , B. 3 , Gallejones P. 1 , Chadwick, D.R. 2 sque Centre For Climate Change (Spain) mstead Res., North Wyke (UK) search, Edinburgh, (UK) Modelling the effect of climate change on environmental pollution losses from UK dairy systems Edinburgh, 15-04-2011 Funded by (AC0307)
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Modelling the effect of climate change on environmental pollution losses from UK dairy systems
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• The objective of this study is to analyse the potential impacts of climate change per se on pollution losses from dairy systems in Britain.
MAIN OBJECTIVE
CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAINAnnual precipitation (medium)
2070-2099
Source: http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/
CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAIN
Summer mean temp (medium) winter mean temp (medium)
2070-2099 2070-2099
Source: http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/
CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAIN
An example of the effect on crop productivity-related variable (e.g. growing season)
INTEGRATED MODELLING APPROACH
LOCATIONFARM TYPOLOGIES
Modelling grassland prod.
• Dates of cuts• DM yield• Digestibility• Crude protein
Pollution/ha /Lmilk(impacts)
NW
FARM
Modified version
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Day number
Soil
moi
stur
e, m
m/m
m
Meas'd soil msim'd soil m
New soil-water balance submodel
UKCIP02-baseline, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s(50 years of each time slice)
SITE ASUMPTIONS
Regions Typical soil type
EE: East England Clay Loam
EM: East Midlands Loam
NE: North East Clay Loam
NW: North West Clay Loam
SC: Scotland Clay Loam
SE: South East Clay Loam
SW: South West Clay Loam
WA: Wales Loam
WM: West Midlands Clay Loam
YH: Yorkshire and Humberside Clay Loam
Typical soil types associated to dairy livestock systems in 10 regions of the UK
SW SE
WMEM
EE
NW
YH
NE
WA
SC
Simulates the effect of management x genetics x soil x climate on
Optimisationfarm scale (holistic)GHG: includes pre-farm gate GHG Time-step: monthlyIncorporates maize, clover and grass as posible
forages to growSemi process-based
CharacteristicsCharacteristics
N and P flows, transformations & losses in the soil-plant-animal
Losses of CH4
Animal performance & needsFarm economicsOther atributes of sustainability
Rothamsted+ ADAS + Reading U.+ Exeter U. + ALTERRA
Full description original version:Del Prado et al., (in review)
RESULTS: CHANGES IN GRASS PRODUCTIVITY
SW SE
WMEM
EE
NWYH
NE
WA
SC
•In general, CC increased plant biomass production and grazing potential season•Large increase in WA and EM•Lowest increase in SE and SW (in decline in 2080s:drier growing season)
•In general: changes Due to increase in light intensity, balance between greater temperatures but some smaller rainfall