Modelling Modelling Crime: Crime: A Spatial Microsimulation A Spatial Microsimulation Approach Approach Charatdao Kongmuang Charatdao Kongmuang School of Geography University of Leeds Supervisors Supervisors Dr. Graham Clarke, Dr. Andrew Evans, Dr. Dimitris Ballas
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Modelling Crime: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach Charatdao Kongmuang School of Geography University of Leeds Supervisors Dr. Graham Clarke, Dr. Andrew.
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ModellingModelling Crime: Crime:A Spatial Microsimulation A Spatial Microsimulation
ApproachApproach
Charatdao KongmuangCharatdao KongmuangSchool of Geography
University of Leeds
SupervisorsSupervisorsDr. Graham Clarke, Dr. Andrew Evans, Dr. Dimitris Ballas
What is Crime?What is Crime?
‘‘Crime is, first of all, a legal conception, Crime is, first of all, a legal conception, human human behaviourbehaviour punishable under the punishable under the criminal law’criminal law’
(Mannheim 1965: 22)(Mannheim 1965: 22)
Why crime?Why crime?
► It is one of the most important It is one of the most important
problems facing the UK today. problems facing the UK today.
►Adds stress to people lives and impairs Adds stress to people lives and impairs
the quality of life of individuals and the quality of life of individuals and
communities.communities.
Study Of CrimeStudy Of Crime
SociologySociology
BiologyBiology
EconomicsEconomics
PoliticPolitic PsychologyPsychology
LawLaw
PsychiatryPsychiatry
CriminologyCriminology
GeographyGeography
CrimeCrime
Geography of CrimeGeography of Crime
Crime MappingCrime Mapping
Spatial patterns of crimeSpatial patterns of crime Ecological AnalysisEcological Analysis
relationship between crime and socio-relationship between crime and socio-economic / environmental factorseconomic / environmental factors
Spatial Analysis- Spatial Analysis- using using GISGIS
Hot spot areas Hot spot areas
MicrosimulationMicrosimulation
A methodology aimed at building A methodology aimed at building
large-scale datasets on the attributes large-scale datasets on the attributes
of individual units and analysing of individual units and analysing
policy impacts on these micro units. policy impacts on these micro units.
Criminal Criminal behaviourbehaviour is related to is related to current attributes of individuals.current attributes of individuals.
Can be used to conduct policy Can be used to conduct policy simulations and forecasting.simulations and forecasting.
Can generate spatial outcomes at a Can generate spatial outcomes at a detailed level of resolution. detailed level of resolution.
It has not yet been applied to study It has not yet been applied to study
crime.crime.
Advantages of Advantages of Spatial MicrosimulationSpatial Microsimulation
Data linkage abilityData linkage ability
Spatial flexibilitySpatial flexibility
Efficiency of storageEfficiency of storage
Ability to update and forecastAbility to update and forecast
(Clarke, (Clarke, 1996)1996)
DrawbacksDrawbacks
The difficulty to validating the model The difficulty to validating the model
outputsoutputs
Large requirements of Large requirements of
computational computational
powerpower
(Clarke, 1996)(Clarke, 1996)
ObjectivesObjectives
Build a spatial microsimulation Build a spatial microsimulation model model
for crime for crime Use this model for forecasting crime Use this model for forecasting crime
- The effect on crime rates - The effect on crime rates
- What types of area tend to have high - What types of area tend to have high
crime rates?crime rates?
- Estimate individuals’ propensity to - Estimate individuals’ propensity to
commit crime and to be a victim.commit crime and to be a victim.
MethodologyMethodology1. Construct a population microdata set.1. Construct a population microdata set.
- A list of individuals along with associated attributes on the - A list of individuals along with associated attributes on the basis of Census and Survey data (e.g. British Crime Survey) basis of Census and Survey data (e.g. British Crime Survey)
- - Conditional probabilities, calculated from available known Conditional probabilities, calculated from available known data, will be used to reconstruct detailed micro-level data, will be used to reconstruct detailed micro-level populations.populations.
2. Create the sample of individuals based on set of 2. Create the sample of individuals based on set of probabilitiesprobabilities
3. Simulate3. Simulate Simulation of crime on the basis of individual propensities to Simulation of crime on the basis of individual propensities to
commit crimecommit crime
4. Validate4. Validate Compare simulation outputs with actual data Compare simulation outputs with actual data
(e.g. from West Yorkshire Police)(e.g. from West Yorkshire Police)
Category Category IndicatorIndicator
High PropensityHigh Propensity
Demographic Demographic Characteristics of Characteristics of OffenderOffender
AgeAge
Sex Sex
Marital Status Marital Status
Ethnic StatusEthnic Status
Family Status Family Status Family SizeFamily Size
Young adultYoung adult
MaleMale
SingleSingle
Minority GroupMinority Group
Broken Home , divorce (weak family life)Broken Home , divorce (weak family life)
LargeLarge
Socio-Economic Socio-Economic Status of OffenderStatus of Offender
Income Income
OccupationOccupation
EmploymentEmployment
Education Education
Social Class Social Class
Type of tenureType of tenure
Low incomeLow income
UnskilledUnskilled
Unemployment Unemployment
LessLess
LowLow
RentedRented
Physical Features of Physical Features of the householdthe household