DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on Modeling the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa, 2014 January 13 th Update Bryan Lewis PhD, MPH ([email protected]) presen2ng on behalf of the Ebola Response Team of Network Dynamics and Simula2on Science Lab from the Virginia Bioinforma2cs Ins2tute at Virginia Tech Technical Report #15003
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Modeling the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa, January 13th 2015 update
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DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Modeling the Ebola Outbreak in West Africa, 2014
January 13th Update
Bryan Lewis PhD, MPH ([email protected]) presen2ng on behalf of the Ebola Response Team of
Network Dynamics and Simula2on Science Lab from the Virginia Bioinforma2cs Ins2tute at Virginia Tech
Technical Report #15-‐003
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
NDSSL Ebola Response Team Staff: Abhijin Adiga, Kathy Alexander, Chris Barre., Richard Beckman, Keith Bisset, Jiangzhuo Chen, Youngyoun Chungbaek, Stephen Eubank, Sandeep Gupta, Maleq Khan, Chris Kuhlman, Eric Lofgren, Bryan Lewis, Achla Marathe, Madhav Marathe, Henning Mortveit, Eric Nordberg, Paula Stretz, Samarth Swarup, Meredith Wilson,Mandy Wilson, and Dawen Xie, with support from Ginger Stewart, Maureen Lawrence-‐Kuether, Kayla Tyler, Kathy Laskowski, Bill Marmagas Students: S.M. Arifuzzaman, Aditya Agashe, Vivek Akupatni, Caitlin Rivers, Pyrros Telionis, Jessie Gunter, Elisabeth Musser, James Schli., Youssef Jemia, Margaret Carolan, Bryan Kaperick, Warner Rose, Kara Harrison
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DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Currently Used Data (as of Jan 9th, 2014)
● Data from WHO, MoH Liberia, and MoH Sierra Leone, available at h.ps://github.com/cmrivers/ebola
● MoH and WHO have reasonable agreement ● Sierra Leone case counts censored up
to 4/30/14. ● Time series was filled in with missing
dates, and case counts were interpolated.
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Cases Deaths Guinea 2,776 1,786 Liberia 8,256 3,496 Sierra Leone 9,930 2,977 Total 20,962 8,259
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Liberia – Case Loca2ons
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DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Liberia infec2on rate
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DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Liberia Forecast
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12/1 to
12/8
12/9 to
12/16
12/15 to
12/21
12/22 to
12/28
12/29 to
1/04
1/05 to
1/11
1/12 to
1/18
1/19-‐1/25
1/26-‐2/01
1/27-‐2/01
Reported 362 99 35 101 131 116
Newer model
285 270 255 240 191 178 166 155 144 135
Reproduc2ve Number Community 0.3 Hospital 0.3 Funeral 0.2 Overall 0.8
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Liberia long term forecasts
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Date Weekly forecast
1/12 202
1/19 190
1/26 179
2/2 169
2/9 160
2/16 150
2/23 142
3/02 134
3/09 126
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Liberia-‐ Prevalence
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Date People in H + I
1/12 488
1/19 460
1/26 434
2/2 410
2/9 386
2/16 365
2/23 344
3/02 325
3/09 306
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Sierra Leone infec2on rate
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DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Sierra Leone Forecast
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35% of cases are hospitalized
ReproducQve Number Community 0.7 Hospital 0.2 Funeral 0.1 Overall 1.0
12/1 to
12/8
12/9 to 12/16
12/15 to
12/21
12/22 to
12/28
12/29 to
1/04
1/05 to
1/11
1/12 to
1/18
1/19-‐1/25
1/26-‐2/01
Reported 598 702 531 651 467 344
Newer model 635 660 686 713 740 607 620 632 645
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
SL longer term forecast
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Sierra Leone – Newer Model fit – Weekly Incidence Date Weekly forecast
1/05 769
1/12 799
1/19 830
1/26 862
2/2 895
2/9 929
2/16 965
2/23 1002
3/02 1040
3/09 1080
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Sierra Leone -‐ Prevalence
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Date People in H + I
1/12 1085
1/19 1128
1/26 1171
2/2 1216
2/9 1263
2/16 1319
2/23 1370
3/02 1423
3/09 1477
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Guinea Forecasts
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40% of cases are hospitalized
ReproducQve Number Community 0.7 Hospital 0.1 Funeral 0.1 Overall 0.9
12/1 to
12/8
12/9 to
12/16
12/15 to
12/21
12/22 to
12/28
12/29 to
1/04
1/05 to
1/11
1/12 to
1/18
1/19-‐1/25
1/26-‐2/01
Reported 44 127 132 166 106 62
Newer model 85 81 78 75 72 68 86 84 82
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Guinea – longer term forecast
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Date Weekly forecast
1/05 69
1/12 66
1/19 63
1/26 60
2/2 58
2/9 55
2/16 53
2/23 51
3/02 48
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Guinea Prevalence
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Date People in H+I
1/12 79
1/19 76
1/26 72
2/2 69
2/9 66
2/16 64
2/23 61
3/02 58
DRAFT – Not for a.ribu2on or distribu2on
Agent Based Model • Long distance travel for Sierra Leone • Explora2on of Dynamics of infec2on – Age distribu2on – Household
• Preliminary Vaccine campaign results • Ongoing studies: – Ex2nc2on study – how likely is Ebola to go ex2nct by chance under different condi2ons