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Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models Brady Stoll, Ph.D. Strategic Energy Analysis Center FERC Technical Conference June 28, 2017
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Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

Mar 17, 2020

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Page 1: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

ModelingstoragetechnologiesinCapacityExpansionModelsBradyStoll,Ph.D.StrategicEnergyAnalysisCenter

FERCTechnicalConferenceJune28,2017

Page 2: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

2

•  RPMOverview

•  MoHvaHonforbeJerstoragemodeling

•  StorageMethodology

•  Results

Page 3: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

RPMOverview

Page 4: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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•  Capacityexpansionmodelthatsimulatesleast-costinvestmentsinandoperaHonofageneraHonandtransmissionsystem

•  SpecializedforanalysisofaregionalelectricsystemoverauHlityplanninghorizon(10-20years)o  Includeshourlychronologicaldispatcho  HighspaHalresoluHonofexisHngandnewresourceso  Real-worldtransmissionsystem

ResourcePlanningModel(RPM)

Page 5: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

5

Database:CompleteWesternInterconnecHondataforallmajorgeneraHonunitsandtransmissionlines

Technology Units Capacityin2010(GW)

Coal 143 39

Gas-CC 208 60

Nuclear 8 10

Gas-CT 434 20

OtherGas 184 23

Biomass 62 2

Geothermal 57 3

Hydropower 641 70

PumpedHydro 15 4

PV 5 <1

CSP 10 <1

Wind 144 12

Total 1,911 243

20,086TransmissionLines

Page 6: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

6

Flexibledatapla`ormallowsdevelopmentofregion-specificmodels

•  AggregatedtransmissionandgeneraHonoutsideoffocus-region

•  MaintainsspaHalresoluHonoffocusregion

•  Fulltransmissionmodelandindividualunitswithinfocusregion

•  Representhurdle-ratesbetweenregions

•  TemporallyconsistentwithproducHoncostmodel

Page 7: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

7

HighlydetailedrenewableresourcedataisaggregatedforhighdefiniHoninthefocus-region

Solar Resource Regions

Page 8: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

MoHvaHonforbeJerstoragemodeling

Page 9: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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•  StateRenewablePor`olioStandards(RPS)•  CaliforniaAB32•  EPACleanPowerPlan(CPP)

ResultsfromReEDS2015StandardScenarios(Sullivanetal.2015)

Renewabledeploymentexpectedbasedonpolicyandeconomics

Page 10: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

10

IncreasedsystemflexibilityisknowntosupportREgridintegraHon

(DenholmandHand2011)

Page 11: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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•  OperaHonalissues.Withagivenpor`olioofassetsincludingvariablegeneraHon(VG),o  Isdispatchfeasible?o  ArethereenoughoperaLngreserves?

•  ResourcevaluaHonissueso  Flexible,butenergy-constrainedresources:capacityvalue,useforenergyandoperaHngreserves,abilitytoreducecurtailment

•  AssociatedcomputaHonallimitaHonso  OpHmizaHonformulaHongearedtowardannualinvestmentdecisions

o  NecessitatesreducedgeospaLalandtemporalresoluLon

ChallengesforCapacityExpansionModeling

Page 12: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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•  OperaHonalissues.Withagivenpor`olioofassetsincludingvariablegeneraHon(VG),o  Isdispatchfeasible?o  ArethereenoughoperaLngreserves?

•  ResourcevaluaHonissueso  Flexible,butenergy-constrainedresources:capacityvalue,useforenergyandoperaHngreserves,abilitytoreducecurtailment

•  AssociatedcomputaHonallimitaHonso  OpHmizaHonformulaHongearedtowardannualinvestmentdecisions

o  NecessitatesreducedgeospaLalandtemporalresoluLon

ChallengesforCapacityExpansionModeling

Page 13: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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•  OperaHonalissues.Withagivenpor`olioofassetsincludingvariablegeneraHon(VG),o  Isdispatchfeasible?o  ArethereenoughoperaLngreserves?

•  ResourcevaluaHonissueso  Flexible,butenergy-constrainedresources:capacityvalue,useforenergyandoperaHngreserves,abilitytoreducecurtailment

•  AssociatedcomputaHonallimitaHonso  OpHmizaHonformulaHongearedtowardannualinvestmentdecisions

o  NecessitatesreducedgeospaLalandtemporalresoluLon

ChallengesforCapacityExpansionModeling

Page 14: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

14

•  OperaHonalissues.Withagivenpor`olioofassetsincludingvariablegeneraHon(VG),o  Isdispatchfeasible?o  ArethereenoughoperaLngreserves?

•  ResourcevaluaHonissueso  Flexible,butenergy-constrainedresources:capacityvalue,useforenergyandoperaHngreserves,abilitytoreducecurtailment

•  AssociatedcomputaHonallimitaHonso  OpHmizaHonformulaHongearedtowardannualinvestmentdecisions

o  NecessitatesreducedgeospaLalandtemporalresoluLon

ChallengesforCapacityExpansionModeling

Page 15: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

Methodology

Page 16: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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0. RPMwasiniHallydesignedwithhighrenewablefuturesandflexibilityinmindo  Chronological,hourlydispatcho  OperaHngreservesbasedonVGpenetraHono  Unitcommitmentandrampingconstraintso  Unit-leveldetailandtransmissioninfocusregiono  DynamiccapacityvaluecalculaHons

Approach

•  RPMcancapturemanyofthekeyvaluaHonsforflexibility.

•  HowevercomputaHonallimitaHonspreventadequatecoverageoverHme(e.g.,hourlyisnotpossible).

•  WeuseHme-seriesandloadduraHoncurvetechniquesoutsideoftheopHmizaHontobeJercaptureflexibilityduring“tail”events.

Page 17: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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0. RPMwasiniHallydesignedwithhighrenewablefuturesandflexibilityinmindo  Chronological,hourlydispatcho  OperaHngreservesbasedonVGpenetraHono  Unitcommitmentandrampingconstraintso  Unit-leveldetailandtransmissioninfocusregiono  DynamiccapacityvaluecalculaHons

Approach

•  RPMcancapturemanyofthekeyvaluaHonsforflexibility.

•  HowevercomputaHonallimitaHonspreventadequatecoverageoverHme(e.g.,hourlyisnotpossible).

•  WeuseHme-seriesandloadduraHoncurvetechniquesoutsideoftheopHmizaHontobeJercaptureflexibilityduring“tail”events.

Page 18: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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1.  “Yogaforcapacityexpansionmodels”–captureflexibilityneedsandprovisioninmodelswithlimitedtemporalresoluHonandcoverageo  HourlyHmeseriesandloadduraHoncurvemethods,similartoNRELREFlexmodel.

o  ParameterizeimpactsofVGandflexibletechnologiesoncapacityvalueandcurtailment.

o  Similar,butless-detailedmethodsbeingusedinglobalIntegratedAssessmentModels

Approach

Page 19: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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1.  “Yogaforcapacityexpansionmodels”–captureflexibilityneedsandprovisioninmodelswithlimitedtemporalresoluHonandcoverageo  HourlyHmeseriesandloadduraHoncurvemethods,similartoNRELREFlexmodel.

o  ParameterizeimpactsofVGandflexibletechnologiesoncapacityvalueandcurtailment.

o  Similar,butless-detailedmethodsbeingusedinglobalIntegratedAssessmentModels

Approach

Page 20: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

20

1.  “Yogaforcapacityexpansionmodels”–captureflexibilityneedsandprovisioninmodelswithlimitedtemporalresoluHonandcoverageo  HourlyHmeseriesandloadduraHoncurvemethods,similartoNRELREFlexmodel.

o  ParameterizeimpactsofVGandflexibletechnologiesoncapacityvalueandcurtailment.

o  Similar,butless-detailedmethodsbeingusedinglobalIntegratedAssessmentModels

Approach

Page 21: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

21

1.  “Yogaforcapacityexpansionmodels”–captureflexibilityneedsandprovisioninmodelswithlimitedtemporalresoluHonandcoverageo  HourlyHmeseriesandloadduraHoncurvemethods,similartoNRELREFlexmodel.

o  ParameterizeimpactsofVGandflexibletechnologiesoncapacityvalueandcurtailment.

o  Similar,butless-detailedmethodsbeingusedinglobalIntegratedAssessmentModels

Approach

Page 22: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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2.  Addflexibletechnologyinvestmentso  Storagewithmaximumandminimumenergyconstraints

o  Captureappropriatevaluestreams,someofwhichrequire8760calculaHons(e.g.capacityvalue,curtailmentreducHon)

o  CurrentandfuturecostesHmatesvarysignificantlyandareuncertain.ThusweincludearangeofpossiblecoststodetermineHppingpointsformeasurabledeployment.

Approach

Page 23: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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•  StoragetechnologieshavelimitaHonsonwhentheycanbeusedbasedontheirstateofchargeandenergycapacity

•  AssumegridoperatorswilluHlizestorageefficiently,parHcularlyduringpeakperiods

•  CreateaheurisHcdispatchtomaximizecapacityvalueandminimizecurtailment,whichisusedtocreateamodified‘storageloadcurve’

Yoga:StoragedispatchheurisHc

Charge

Discharge

Page 24: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

24

•  StoragetechnologieshavelimitaHonsonwhentheycanbeusedbasedontheirstateofchargeandenergycapacity

•  AssumegridoperatorswilluHlizestorageefficiently,parHcularlyduringpeakperiods

•  CreateaheurisHcdispatchtomaximizecapacityvalueandminimizecurtailment,whichisusedtocreateamodified‘storageloadcurve’

Yoga:StoragedispatchheurisHc

Charge

Discharge

Page 25: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

25

•  StoragetechnologieshavelimitaHonsonwhentheycanbeusedbasedontheirstateofchargeandenergycapacity

•  AssumegridoperatorswilluHlizestorageefficiently,parHcularlyduringpeakperiods

•  CreateaheurisHcdispatchtomaximizecapacityvalueandminimizecurtailment,whichisusedtocreateamodified‘storageloadcurve’

Yoga:StoragedispatchheurisHc

Charge

Discharge

Page 26: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

26

•  StoragetechnologieshavelimitaHonsonwhentheycanbeusedbasedontheirstateofchargeandenergycapacity

•  AssumegridoperatorswilluHlizestorageefficiently,parHcularlyduringpeakperiods

•  CreateaheurisHcdispatchtomaximizecapacityvalueandminimizecurtailment,whichisusedtocreateamodified‘storageloadcurve’

Yoga:StoragedispatchheurisHc

Charge

Discharge

Page 27: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

27

•  Captureshininnetpeakloadbasedontop100hours•  ValuesgeospaHalandtechnologydiversity•  AttheNERClevelandbystoragetechnology:

o  capacityvalueofexisHngstorage=<NLDC–SLDC>top100/exisHngcapacityo  marginalcapacityvalueofnewstorage=<SLDC(δ)>top100/δ

Yoga:CapacityValue

Page 28: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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•  Captureshininnetpeakloadbasedontop100hours•  ValuesgeospaHalandtechnologydiversity•  AttheNERClevelandbystoragetechnology:

o  capacityvalueofexisHngstorage=<NLDC–SLDC>top100/exisHngcapacityo  marginalcapacityvalueofnewstorage=<SLDC(δ)>top100/δ

Yoga:CapacityValue

Page 29: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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•  Captureshininnetpeakloadbasedontop100hours•  ValuesgeospaHalandtechnologydiversity•  AttheNERClevelandbystoragetechnology:

o  capacityvalueofexisHngstorage=<NLDC–SLDC>top100/exisHngcapacityo  marginalcapacityvalueofnewstorage=<SLDC(δ)>top100/δ

Yoga:CapacityValue

Page 30: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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•  Captureshininnetpeakloadbasedontop100hours•  ValuesgeospaHalandtechnologydiversity•  AttheNERClevelandbystoragetechnology:

o  capacityvalueofexisHngstorage=<NLDC–SLDC>top100/exisHngcapacityo  marginalcapacityvalueofnewstorage=<SLDC(δ)>top100/δ

Yoga:CapacityValue

Page 31: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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•  CurtailmentbasedoninterplayofNLDC,min-gen,andstoragedispatch.

•  WeusearegressionbasedonPLEXOSproducHoncostsimulaHonstocalculatetheeffecHvemin-genandidenHfyhowstorageimpactscurtailmentbelowthatline.

Yoga:Curtailment

Page 32: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

32

•  CurtailmentbasedoninterplayofNLDC,min-gen,andstoragedispatch.

•  WeusearegressionbasedonPLEXOSproducHoncostsimulaHonstocalculatetheeffecHvemin-genandidenHfyhowstorageimpactscurtailmentbelowthatline.

Yoga:Curtailment

Page 33: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

33

•  CurtailmentbasedoninterplayofNLDC,min-gen,andstoragedispatch.

•  WeusearegressionbasedonPLEXOSproducHoncostsimulaHonstocalculatetheeffecHvemin-genandidenHfyhowstorageimpactscurtailmentbelowthatline.

Yoga:Curtailment

Page 34: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

34

•  CurtailmentbasedoninterplayofNLDC,min-gen,andstoragedispatch.

•  WeusearegressionbasedonPLEXOSproducHoncostsimulaHonstocalculatetheeffecHvemin-genandidenHfyhowstorageimpactscurtailmentbelowthatline.

Yoga:Curtailment

Page 35: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

Scenarios

Page 36: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

36

CapacityExpansionforBaselineScenariosBase

HighRenewable

•  ExisHngpolicies•  Mid-linePVandwindcosts•  MidStoragecosts•  AEOReferenceNaturalGasprices•  NoCarbonprice

•  ExisHngpolicies•  Mid-linePVandwindcosts•  MidStoragecosts•  AEOHighNaturalGasprices•  MedianCarbonprice

Page 37: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

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AnnualGeneraHonforBaselineScenarios

HighRenewables

Base

•  Solargrowthstartsin2020•  Mildwindgrowth•  Significantcurtailmentdoesn’t

startunHl2035•  IncreaseingasCCgeneraHonin

2035

•  Solargrowthstartsin2020•  SignificantwindgeneraHonin

2025•  Significantcurtailmentstarts

in2030

Page 38: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

38

Storagecosttrajectories

TrajectoriesfromColeet.al.forseveralstoragecapaciHes

Page 39: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

39

StoragecapacitybuiltbyRPM

Page 40: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

40

StoragecapacitybuiltbyRPM

Page 41: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

41

StorageCostImpactsonAnnualGeneraHon,BaseHighStorageCosts•  ReducHonofwindand

increaseofgasCC•  ReducHonofcurtailment

largelyfromlowerrenewabledispatch

LowStorageCosts•  Largeincreasesolarand

storagegeneraHon•  ReducHoninsolarcurtailment

andcoalgeneraHon

Page 42: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

42

StorageCostImpactsonAnnualGeneraHon,BaseHighStorageCosts•  ReducHonofwindand

increaseofgasCC•  ReducHonofcurtailment

largelyfromlowerrenewabledispatch

LowStorageCosts•  Largeincreasesolarand

storagegeneraHon•  ReducHoninsolarcurtailment

andcoalgeneraHon

Page 43: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

43

StorageCostImpactsonAnnualGeneraHon,HighREHighStorageCosts•  Increaseincurtailmentandgas

generaHon•  ReducHoninsolarandstorage

generaHon

LowStorageCosts•  Increaseinsolar,storageand

gasgeneraHon•  Decreaseincurtailment,and

windgeneraHonfromreducedinstallaHons

Page 44: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

44

StorageCostImpactsonAnnualGeneraHon,HighREHighStorageCosts•  Increaseincurtailmentandgas

generaHon•  ReducHoninsolarandstorage

generaHon

LowStorageCosts•  Increaseinsolar,storageand

gasgeneraHon•  Decreaseincurtailment,and

windgeneraHonfromreducedinstallaHons

Page 45: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

45

Dispatch,HighRE,lowstoragecosts

Page 46: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

46

StorageOperaHon,long-duraHon

•  Charginglargelyoccursduringhighsolarhours•  Dispatchlargelyoccursduringanernoonpeak•  Long-duraHonstorageprovidesspinningandregulaHonreserves

Page 47: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

47

StorageOperaHon,short-duraHon

•  Short-termbaJeriesaremostlyusedforregulaHonreserves

•  GeneraHonprovidedoccasionally

Page 48: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

48

ValueofStorage,Base,midstoragecosts

•  Storageisonlyinstalledin2020and2025tomeetAB32

•  ReservesprovisionenableshigherenergycapaciHesintheseyears

•  NoeconomicstorageinstalledunHl2035

•  2-hourstorageinstalledforcapacity,curtailmentreducHon,andreserves

Page 49: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

49

ValueofStorage,Base,midstoragecosts

•  Storageisonlyinstalledin2020and2025tomeetAB32

•  ReservesprovisionenableshigherenergycapaciHesintheseyears

•  NoeconomicstorageinstalledunHl2035

•  2-hourstorageinstalledforcapacity,curtailmentreducHon,andreserves

Page 50: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

50

ValueofStorage,HighRE,lowstoragecosts

•  Storageisonlyinstalledin2020tomeetAB32,withreservesprovisionenablinghigherenergycapaciHes

•  30-minto1-hourstorageareinstalledlargelyforreservesprovision

•  By2030,4and8hourstorageareinstalledforcapacity,curtailmentreducHon,andenergyshining

Page 51: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

51

•  RPMrepresentsrenewablesandflexibletechnologywithhighresoluHoninresourceavailabilityanddispersion

•  UsemethodologydesignedtofullycapturethetailsofoperaHontoensurewecapturethefullvalueflexibletechnologiesprovide

•  RPMrepresentsmulHplevaluestreamsavailabletostoragetechnologiesinplanningandoperaHonsofanelectricgrid

Conclusions

Page 52: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

QuesHons?

Page 53: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

53

Whoarewe?

ClaytonBarrowsPh.D.EnergyandMineralEngineeringPennsylvaniaStateUniversity

AnthonyLopezM.S.GeographicInformaHonScienceUniversityofDenver

ElaineHalePh.D.ChemicalEngineeringUniversityofTexas,AusHn

TrieuMaiPh.D.TheoreHcalPhysicsUniversityofCalifornia,SantaCruz

DylanHeUngerB.S.GeographyAppalachianStateUniversity

BradyStollPh.D.MechanicalEngineeringUniversityofTexas,AusHn

Page 54: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

54

StorageCostImpactsonCapacity,BaseHighStorageCosts•  Approximatelythesametotal

storagecapacity,butsmallerenergycapaciHes

•  ReducHonofwindcapacitygetsbuilt,withincreaseingasCCunits

LowStorageCosts•  Largeincreaseintotalstorage

capacitybuilt,withlargerenergycapaciHesbuiltstarHngin2025

•  Increaseinsolarcapacity,reducHonofwindandbothgastechnologies

Page 55: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

55

StorageCostImpactsonCapacity,HighREHighStorageCosts•  ReducHoninstoragecapacity

starHngin2030•  Increaseinwindandgas

technologiesanddecreaseinsolarPV

LowStorageCosts•  Largeincreaseintotalstorage

capacitybuilt,withlargerenergycapaciHesbuiltstarHngin2030

•  Decreaseinwindandgastechnologies

Page 56: Modeling storage technologies in Capacity Expansion Models · “Yoga for capacity expansion models” – capture flexibility needs and provision in models with limited temporal

56

Foreachmodelyear(2010,2015,…,2030)…

min (capitalandfixedcostsfornewgenerators)+(capitalandfixedcostsfornewtransmission)+(variable,fuel,start-up,andcarboncosts)+(transmissionhurdlerates)

s.t. allowedlocaHonsandsizesofnewassets windandsolarresourceavailability

loadbalancing(hourlychronological,4dispatchperiods)transmissionconstraintscapacity,reserve,andenergyconstraintspolicyconstraints(RPSandCPP)unitcommitment(opHonal)minimumplantsize(opHonal)

ResourcePlanningModel(RPM)


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