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Modeling,LearningandPlanningTogetherAddressingBigQuestionswithData,Models,and
ParticipatoryExploration
MoiraZellnerAssociateProfessor,UPP
ResearchAssociateProfessor,IESPDirector,UDVL
NSFSUSworkshop
TheUniversityofTexasatAustinAugust22-24,2019
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Motivations
Source: http://www.greenpeace.org Source: sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com
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QuestionsI:Toolsformodeling
• Sustainablegrowth• Effectivenessofgreeninfrastructure• Localeconomicinterestsv.regionalenvironmentalgoals
• Managingfloodinganddroughtinagriculture
Modelingcoupledhuman-naturalsystems
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AnswersI:Toolsformodeling
• Growthisnotsustainable(.)– ZellnerandReeves(2012)
• Greeninfrastructure:Thresholdsandlayouts– Zellneretal.(2016)
• Collaborativeconservationcanariseunderdevelopmentpressure– Zellneretal.(2010)
• Adaptationcanreducecroplossesbutexacerbateflooding– Zellneretal.(2019)
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Conventionalplanningandmodeling
(Zellner 2008)
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“Unconventional”planningandmodeling
(Zellner 2008)
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Challenges
• Communicationacrossexpertise• Spatialthinkingandcomputermodeling• Confirmatorybias• Consensus-buildingandgeneralization
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QuestionsII:Toolsforparticipation
• Howcancomplexsystemsmodelinghelpuslearn?
• Howdoeslearningleadtobetterplanningdeliberationanddecision-making?
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Whatwe’velearned
• Itsupportslearningandinnovation• It’shard!• It’sdeeplyhuman• Twostories:
– Smallisbeautiful– Makingtheinvisiblevisible
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WaterSustainabilityinNEIllinois
Data Sources Illinois base data – Illinois GIS Data Clearinghouse Wisconsin base data – Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources 2001 Land Use Data – Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning
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Smallisbeautiful
Groundwatersupply
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SOMEModel(SLUCEProject)
(Zellner et al. 2012)
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SOMEModel
(Zellner et al. 2012)
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Learning,innovationandresistance
• TransparencyofassumptionsThereisnoresidentialgrowthhere…exceptin…“Ifwaterisnotaproblem,thenwhyarecommunitiesdoingconservation?”
• MentalmodelingLakeMichiganwaterandgroundwatereffects
• Favoredapproacheswon’twork“There'stheideathat…we'regonnahavesuchabigimpactanditreallydoesn't”Couldn’tisolatethemselvesfromtheimpactofgrowth
• Specificityofalternativesolutions“Dowecreategiantrechargeareasthatwillassistthewholeregion?...““Ithinkwe’relearningthat{regionalwatermanagement}isessentialforallofus”“I’dneverbringthisupinapublicmeeting…”butwhataboutinjection?
• Andyet…rejection(Hochetal.2015)- Inaccuracy
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DiscourseanalysisI
(Radinskyetal.2016)
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DiscourseanalysisII
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Simpleinterfaces…
(Zellneretal.Inprogress)
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Todetailedinterfaces
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Todetailedprocesses
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Lessons
• Keepitsimple• Useintermediatetangibleuserinterfaces(TUI)• Interactiveexerciseversusinstruction• Startwithmorevisibleproblems
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Makingtheinvisiblevisible
Flooding
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Anillustrationinflooding
L-GrID model (Zellner et al. 2016)
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Anillustration:Rainbarrelsorbioswales?
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Thingstoconsider
• Simulationsalonearenotenough- Tradeoffs- Costsanddistribution- Spatialconstraints- Diversestakeholderinterests
• Solution-buildingANDcompromise- Awarenessofpreferences- Addressingdiverseneeds
• metrics,evaluation,exploration
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Workshopsetup
(Zellner et al. in press)
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Sortedsimulationresults
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Learning,innovation,compromise
• TransparencyofassumptionsandtradeoffsJo:“Ohwow,that’smuchbetter…foryou.”Nina:“Iguessitmatterswhatyourprioritiesare!”Kevin:“Damagewasreducedby87%…butwewereoverbudgetby1.2million.”
• Systematicexploration“Let’sstartbygoingcrazy,puttingalotofstuffonhere,andthenparebackfromthere.”“Wecanrunmultiplesimulations,solet’srunthisoneandthentrythat”
• GesturingandmentalmodelingFollowingtheflowImaginingdifferentperformance
• Greeninfrastructurecannotlocallysolvetheproblem“Perhapsweneedtothinkofmovingthehousesoutofthere”GreenANDgrayinfrastructureCoordinationwithothercommunities
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AnswersII:Toolsforparticipation
• Collaborativedesign• Facilitationforsynthesis• Consensusorcompromise?• Participatorymodelingasapointofentry
– totheproblem,– toothertools,– todiverseinterests– tootherproblems
APA Academic Tech Innovator Award 2017 (Zellner et al. in press)
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Futureplans
• Refiningandextendingparticipatorymodelingandvisualization– Newdomains:energy,food,airandwaterquality– Newcontexts:SouthAmerica,Australia,MiddleEast– Newtoolsandapproaches:scalingup,datalifecycle
• Contributingtocommunities– Scholarly:ComSES,CSDMS– Decision-making:USandStateCongress,NCSE
• Interdisciplinaryteaching
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Whydothis?
• Changingestablishedheuristics• Supportingtheevolutionofunderstandingandvaluation
• Technologyasaprostheticdevicefordecision-making
• Innovationiscriticalforresilienceandsustainability
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Acknowledgments• LeilahLyons,DanMilz,CharlesHoch,JoshRadinsky,BenO’Connor,
MaxDieber,AndyJohnson,EmilyMinor,DeanMassey,JustinKeller,EricBoria,JenWeizeorick,JoPena,CarlKunda,EthanBrown,LissaDomoracki,AprilSchneider,KelseyPudlock,JoeyShelley,BrianSlattery,LisaCotner.
• Chicagoregionstakeholders• TimLoftus,JasonNavota,NoraBeck,CMAP• JoshEllis,DanielleGallet,SarahCardona,MPC• JohnWatson,JimYurik,RichFisher,JackChan,AnnieWright,MWRD• HowardReeves,USGS• AlWehrmann,Yu-FengLin,ScottMeyer,ISWS• UrbanPlanningandPolicy,GreatCitiesInstitute,InstituteforPublic
andCivicEngagement(UIC),UICChancellorDiscoveryFund,• NationalScienceFoundationCI-TEAMandREESEprograms.
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Thankyou!
[email protected]