Modeling Hydrologic Alteration and Ecosystem Response to Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. Brian Hughes and Jacob LaFontaine, USGS, Atlanta, GA; Mary Freeman, USGS, Athens, GA; Jim Peterson, USGS Corvallis, OR NWQMC Portland, OR May 2, 2012 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey
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Modeling Hydrologic Alteration and EcosystemResponse to Climate Change in theSoutheastern U.S.
Brian Hughes and Jacob LaFontaine,USGS, Atlanta, GA; Mary Freeman,USGS, Athens, GA; Jim Peterson, USGSCorvallis, OR
NWQMCPortland, ORMay 2, 2012
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Southeast Regional Assessment Project
SERAP is a pilot study for the USGS NCCWSC and CSC thatintegrates climate change, land-use change, and sea-level riseprojections with habitat and species response models to assessfuture climate effects on terrestrial and aquatic species
Integrated Coastal Assessment—Nathaniel Plant, Glenn Gutenspergen, VanWilson, Cindy Thatcher, Alexa McKerrow, Adam Terando, Scott Wilson, RobThieler, Peter Howd
Integrated Terrestrial Assessment—Alexa McKerrow, Adam Terando, SteveWilliams, Jamie Callazo, Barry Grand, Jim Nichols, Andrew Royle, John Sauer
Integrated Aquatic Assessment—Jim Peterson, Lauren Hay, Kenneth Odom,Brian Hughes, Robb Jacobson, John Jones, Mary Freeman, Jacob LaFontaine,Carrie Elliot, Steve Markstrom, Jeff Riley
Optimal Conservation Strategies—Barry Grand, Max Post van der Burg, KevinKliner, Allison Moody,
Dissemination of High-Resolution National Climate Change Dataset—JamieCollazo, Lauren Hay, Katharine Hayhoe, Nathaniel Booth, Adam Terando,Jason Hopkins, Roland Viger
Basic Questions Addressed by SERAP
What effects will climate changes have on terrestrial andaquatic ecosystems?• What are the likely impacts of future sea level rise on coastal habitats?
• How will stream flow changes alter habitat conditions necessary forhealthy fish and mussel populations?
• Will changes in vegetation and land use affect terrestrial habitats forbird populations?
What can we do to avoid the worst effects of climate change?• What are the causes and degree of uncertainty in forecasts of climate
change and responses?
• What are the benefits and effectiveness of adaptation strategies?
• Models estimate the occupancy (presence) of fish species in astream segment (defined as a section of stream from tributaryjunction to tributary junction).
• The dynamics of the populations (colonization, reproduction,extinction) are modeled as a function of geomorphic channelcharacteristics, stream size, seasonal discharge statistic, andstream temperature.
• Specific species characteristics (preferred habitat, locomotionmode, body size, spawning duration, etc.) are used in models.
Composite estimatesFish species richness 1998 (pre-drought)
Composite estimatesFish species richness 2001 (drought)
Composite estimatesFish species richness 2004 (post- drought)
< 10
>10 - 15
>15 - 20
>20 - 25
>25
Number of species
Integrated Aquatics AssessmentModeling Fish Occupancy
21002001
GAP TerrestrialVertebrate
Models
VegetationDynamics
Urban GrowthOptimal
ConservationStrategies
HabitatAvailability
through Time
Suitable habitat
Cerulean WarblerDendroica cerulea
Integrated Terrestrial AssessmentHabitat models for priority species
Questions?
• What kinds of water quality parameters canbe predicted under future climate scenarioswith any certainty?
• Which of these are the most relevant forecosystem and human health?
SNTEMP
• Developed by USFWSand USGS to predicthow changes in flowregime affect watertemperatures
• Uses output parametersfrom PRMS and physicalchannel characteristics
-20%
-16%
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
Daily water withdrawal (MGD)
Ch
an
ge
ino
cc
up
an
cy
rate
(%)
Moxostoma grammarion
Percina nigrofasciata
Gambusia spp.
Lepomis auritus
Composite species-specific estimates
Climate Adaptation StrategiesFinal Products
• Spatially explicit decision support toolto allow management agencies toprioritize conservation actions basedon a range of predicted future habitatconditions, including:– Portfolio of best conservation actions
Thematic Mapper based mapview that depicts inundationas sea level rises
• User friendly environment forresource managers andpublic to visualize impacts ofsea-level rise
• Interactive map displayselevations of 1, 3, and 6 feetabove Mean Higher HighWater datum
Integrated Terrestrial AssessmentLinking landscape, climate, and urbanization models
A decision making process that accounts for theuncertainty associated with predictingenvironmental dynamics and populationresponses, and the uncertainty associated withconservation policies and whether they will beeffective.
UrbanGrowthModels
GlobalClimateModels
ExistingLandscapeConditions
Succession &Disturbance
Models
Range of FutureLandscapeConditions
Avian OccupancySpecies Distribution
• Basic objective: Test hypotheses aboutavian range dynamics as function ofclimate change and other relevantfactors.
• Probabilities of local extinction andcolonization predicted as function of:
o Climate change
o Land-use change
o Location within overall speciesrange
o Neighbor effects (occupancy ofnearby locations)
• Ranges are likely to shift or contractand can be modeled by varying rates ofextinction/colonization
Integrated Terrestrial AssessmentModeling North American land bird range dynamics