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1 India handset market is growing faster than other key India handset market is growing faster than other key markets; margin pool is expected to be $3 Billion in 2009 markets; margin pool is expected to be $3 Billion in 2009 67 110 145 190 144 180 206 223 170 180 186 189 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 India G reaterChina N orth A m erica TAM Units (Millions) Margin Pool ($ Billions) India margin pool is expected to grow at CAGR of 45%; 3X times that of Greater China 1.1 1.6 2.3 3.2 4.1 5.1 5.8 6.2 5.7 6.2 6.0 6.1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2006 2007 2008 2009 India G reaterChina N orth A m erica 42% 16% 4% 45% 15% 2% CAGR (06-09) 13% 15% 13% % of World (2009) CAGR (06-09) 7% 13% 12% % of World (2009) Wireless Market Growth: Wireless Market Growth: Global Global VAS and Email are 2 Key Areas
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Mobile Pc.Cedt

Dec 13, 2014

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Mobile PC Presentation for CEDT
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Page 1: Mobile Pc.Cedt

11

India handset market is growing faster than other key markets; margin pool is India handset market is growing faster than other key markets; margin pool is expected to be $3 Billion in 2009expected to be $3 Billion in 2009

67110 145 190

144180

206223

170180 186 189

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009

India Greater China North America

TAM Units (Millions) Margin Pool ($ Billions)

• India margin pool is expected to grow at CAGR of 45%; 3X times that of Greater China

1.1 1.6 2.3 3.2

4.15.1

5.86.2

5.7 6.26.0 6.1

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009

India Greater China North America

42%

16%

4%

45%

15%

2%

CAGR(06-09)

13%

15%

13%

% of World(2009)

CAGR(06-09)

7%

13%

12%

% of World(2009)

Wireless Market Growth: GlobalWireless Market Growth: Global

VAS and Email are2 Key Areas

Page 2: Mobile Pc.Cedt

22

Mobile Internet Forecasts: GlobalMobile Internet Forecasts: Global

Page 3: Mobile Pc.Cedt

33

Mobile App RevenuesMobile App RevenuesGlobal Growth Applications

Page 4: Mobile Pc.Cedt

44

Wireless Growth Markets - IndiaWireless Growth Markets - India• CDMA-1X has coverage into Tier2/3 cities• GSM - Edge in early growth into tier 2 cities• 3G Spectrum released for Wimax

Page 5: Mobile Pc.Cedt

55

Internet Penetration: IndiaInternet Penetration: India

• • Overall 46% 17%• Top 4 Metros 50% 21%• Next 4 Metros 45% 14%• Other 8 Metros 44% 12%• Remaining 6 Metros 27% 9%• SEC A - 35%• SEC B - 13%• SEC C 4%

• Internet Penetration by Town class and

Socio-Economic Classification

Internet connections - Contribution to the total by Access type

March 2006

March 2007

Dial up 38% 39%ISDN 17% 19%Leased line 4% 15%DSL/Cable Link 37% 38%VSAT 1% -

• Internet Access by Access Type

As of March 2007

Business Home

Page 6: Mobile Pc.Cedt

66

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

China India

• Wireless subscriber base expected to reach 500 million by 2010 (200 million in 2006) Wireless subscriber base expected to reach 500 million by 2010 (200 million in 2006) Penetration in 2006 is 20%Penetration in 2006 is 20%

37 59106

169239

308

379

1324

44

63

79

92

103

2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E

GSM/3G CDMA

Net-Adds(India)

32 66 83 86

Wireless Penetration 8% 13% 21% 28%

82

34%

82

41%

•Wireless Subscribers trend - •2004 - 2010 (M) Wireless Subscribers –

India vs. China (M)

China

83

150

400

232

318

482

India 2003 2006 2008F2001 2002 2004 2005 2007F 2009F 2010F

51

21

5%

31%

18%

CAGR(07-10)

Mobile Wireless MarketsMobile Wireless Markets

Page 7: Mobile Pc.Cedt

77

112

478

560

1,186

188

240

640

1,600

2007

612

1,076

3,540

2009

• Nokia is increasing its dominance in Music in Low Tier

• Sony Ericsson strong in High Tier with its Walkman devices

• Nokia providing pre loaded games and pushing Ngage

• Nokia and Samsung are very well positioned by providing features like SMS backup, spam filtering and IM per India requirements

• RIM and Nokia going after push email with new devices

VAS revenue from wireless in M $

All Non Voice Services Are Considered VAS in IndiaAll Non Voice Services Are Considered VAS in India

1Entertainment

Ringtone download

Games

Wall papers, logos

2Messaging

SMS

P2A – Person to Application SMS

A2P – Application to person: Email

3Others

MMS

Music Download

E-Governance

Education

HealthcareM-Commerce

Page 8: Mobile Pc.Cedt

88

Digital Vs Mobile Music DownloadDigital Vs Mobile Music Download

Page 9: Mobile Pc.Cedt

99

Devices – OpportunitiesDevices – Opportunities

• 1X is already rolled out with major coverage

• Edge, Wifi and Wimax Penetration expected to increase

Page 10: Mobile Pc.Cedt

1010

Laptop Growth (Global)Laptop Growth (Global)

250Mn PC’s sold worldwide in 2006

Page 11: Mobile Pc.Cedt

1111

Year

2% 3% 5%9%

13%

97% 98% 97% 95%91%

87%

3%

1716

2345

3124

3810

5047

6341

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Notebooks Desktop PC Total PC

Ove

rall

PC

Ma

rke

t S

ize

(In ‘000)

• Notebooks account for 13% PC market, up from 9% in 2005-06.

• Notebook sales grew by 97%, while growth in Desktop sales was only 19%.

Growth in 2006-07 over 2005-06

Desktop PC Notebooks Overall PC

19% 97% 26%

Notebook vs Desktop salesNotebook vs Desktop sales

Page 12: Mobile Pc.Cedt

1212

Notebook sales: 2001-2007Notebook sales: 2001-2007

• Annual sales grew by 97%; CAGR: 80%

• Households accounted for 37% of the market

growing five-folds

• Businesses accounted for 63% of the market

growing 41%

44,742 50,97488,831

177,105

431,834

850,860

0

150,000

300,000

450,000

600,000

750,000

900,000

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Un

its

27% 21% 14% 21%31%

19%

30%26% 46% 27%

22%

25%

43%53%

40%52% 47%

56%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Small Medium Large

% U

nits

• Overall consumption in the business

grew by 41%

• Consumption in large and medium enterprises

grew by 66% and 61% respectively,

however in small enterprises it declined 10%

Notebook sales: 2001-2007Notebook sales: 2001-2007 Notebook Consumption in Businesses – Notebook Consumption in Businesses – by employee size by employee size

Page 13: Mobile Pc.Cedt

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Smartphone Vs LaptopSmartphone Vs Laptop

• Globally, Smartphones are expected to grow at 30% CAGR over next 5 years and will overtake unit sales for Laptops

• The share of the 6 OS’s is speculative • (MS, Symbian, Linux, RIM, OSX, Palm)

• Smartphone are seen as being “Really Personal”• Product Lifetime for Smartphone is <2 years

compared to a laptop which is >3 years

Page 14: Mobile Pc.Cedt

1414

Monitor & Flat Panel MarketsMonitor & Flat Panel Markets

1,704

2,3872,786

3,642

4,637

5,572

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

• Annual Growth 20%; CAGR:24%

• Consumption in smaller towns grew by 34% accounting for 60%

of market, ‘Next 4’ cities accounted for 8% of the market with a

decline was 24%

• In Top 4 cities the growth was 15% accounting for 32% of the market

• Businesses accounted for 75% while Households for 25% of the market

’00

0 U

nits

Monitor sales: 2001-2007Monitor sales: 2001-2007

3526 22

5244

1929

614

55 38

50

50

35 47

32

138

91 2 452

0

20

40

60

80

100

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

14" 15" 17" 20/21"

Monitor market by size: 2001-2007Monitor market by size: 2001-2007

• Consumption of 20/21” recorded maximum

growth of 174%; followed by 17” at 75%

• Sales of 14” and 15” declined by 47% and

9% respectively.

• LCD/Plasma tipped to capture 60% sales • Current Volumes is appx 20M p.a• LCD growth is 400% while Pl;asma is 170% p.a

Flat Panel MarketFlat Panel Market

Page 15: Mobile Pc.Cedt

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Alternate Access DeviceAlternate Access DeviceDevice Advantage Disadvantage

STB No Moving Parts

Low cost

High installed base of TV

Simple to use

Access to Internet, Email, Web Services

Communal Use in family setting helps drive exposure/drive with technology

Extendable to SOH/SME

Integrates with Telco Convergence

Untested widelly as a deplyed platform

TV Display Lacks Clarity

Uability of Keyboard/Mouse/Viewing Distance

Email/Browsing tends to be single user so a deterrent to extensive use

Battery backup difficult

Netwrok Computing Device Lowest cost $70, $10/month

Online Software Upgrades

Payt per use model

Bundeled Apps

Required Higher bandwidth

Suitable for large org with large NW PCs doing a specifci task like BPOs

Opewrator driven, Lacks user control of configutration

One Laptop per Child Uses Memory instead of Hardiosk

Can run on battery

Lowest cost of Shared Internet with Wifi

Sturdy Display usable in sunlight

Modified Rugged OS

Cost Escalation

Untested as a platform

Limaited rendering of display

Limited Applications

Limited Multimedia capability

Mobile Internet Device Personolized Internet

Always On connectivity

Push

At Hands reach allows impulsive decision making

Possibility of multiple HI

Continued Econmics of Scale

Power efficient

Small Screen Size

Difficulat Character Entry

Unable to offer Community Entertainment

Standards for OS & Apps not interoperable across Platforms

Not sauitable for SOHO/SME Biz Apps

Heavy Duty computing still a a challenge as compared to PC’s

Page 16: Mobile Pc.Cedt

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AAD - StatusAAD - Status

$100 Novatium – 2005

Monitor & Harddrive are 2 big issues

$250 XenitusZenith – 20061G Via, 40GB, 128MB, 15”

$185 Personal InternetCommunicator(PIC) AMD Canned in 2006

$220 HCL PCFor India unvlieledIn Aug2005By Maran 1G, 40G,128MB, 15”

$400 Intel Via Linux/WindowsMay 2006

$513 MS/AMD Athlon IQ PC With Zenith $3 Win+Off for EducationGovt subsidies for othersJun 2007

$260 Simputer Picopeta Amida /BE Linux Touchscreen PDA

Page 17: Mobile Pc.Cedt

1717

IAD Price Sensitivity MeterIAD Price Sensitivity Meter

Internet device Device+Mobile Complete bundle Internet device Device+Mobile Complete bundle

All 1692 3322 4485 1200 2750 3800

Evolved 1945 3644 4956 1300 2900 4250

Low Utilitarian 1634 3445 4848 1000 3000 4300

Passive Alien 1842 3411 4447 1400 2800 3800

Alien Aspirant 1375 2560 3061 1000 2200 2600

Reasonable price – Unaided Safe price – Price Sensitivity Meter

• Optimum price perceived to be Rs. 3,800/- for the complete product bundle … differs by segments• Aspirers, who have the highest purchase intent, perceive the optimum price of the total benefit to be Rs. 2,600/- … acceptability to be lower at higher prices• Price perception higher among the evolved set and low utilitarians

1$=Rs.40

Page 18: Mobile Pc.Cedt

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Applications for IADApplications for IAD

Page 19: Mobile Pc.Cedt

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Other Markets for IADOther Markets for IAD

Page 20: Mobile Pc.Cedt

2020

ObservationsObservations• Mobile Subscriber growth in India is 50% while Internet growth

is 10% p.a• IAD/AAD have not been successfully adopted in the India

market• Mobile handsets with their reach, availability, familiarity

are likely to be the primary IAD• UMPC & Tablet Form factor are important for the portfolio

as well• Price of $80 Mobile for low-end IAD with options for expansion

is a potential area of investment• E2E with Bundled Apps and Web2.0 is Key to Long term

Success - Messaging, Music, TV, Gaming, M-Comm will increase ARPU and Stickiness. Business Models and Partnerships will be Key

Page 21: Mobile Pc.Cedt

2121

SWOT – Large MNC’s SWOT – Large MNC’s Strengths Weakness

Opportunity Threat

• Large Scale Production• Enterprise Channel• Access to Global Markets• Engineering • Quality• Support

• New Entrant • Consumer Awareness• Relationship with Operators

• Wireless & Broadband Markets• Growth Markets• Convergence

• Cost Competitiveness• Conflict of Interest with existing customers

Page 22: Mobile Pc.Cedt

2222

StrategyStrategyPortfolio GTM

Product

• Ride Mobile Wave• Address Personal Home & Office space• Tap into TV market

• Leverage Enterprise S Channel• Consumer Branding• Wholesaler• Service Network• Regional Presales teams

• Create SW COE’s as differentiators• HW from ODM Initially• Acquisition for Inorganic growth

Manufacture

• Migrate to internal models when market is mature

Page 23: Mobile Pc.Cedt

2323

PC-Laptop-Mobile : CharacterisitcsPC-Laptop-Mobile : Characterisitcs

• CPU : Intel/AMD• Memory: 128MB+• HDisk : 40GB+• USB• BT/Wifi• MS/Linux• Player/Editor• Storage• Messaging• Email• Office• Browser• Skype/MMOIP• Gaming• Web 2.0

• Display • Battery Life • Weight• Robustness• Ergo • Multimedia• DVD

• No Hard disk • Personal Display• KB Interface• MA Connectivity• Mutltimedia• Camera• Battery• Ready • Cost & ARPU• Poor Browsing• UPA• No Printer• User Authentication

• Display• KPad/Mouse• Storage• Community Use• Interoperable Apps• Not suitable for SOHO/SME/Biz• Not suitable for • heavy computing• Battery life• Longivity > 2 years

GAPS

Page 24: Mobile Pc.Cedt

2424

Competition PortfolioCompetition Portfolio

• Convertible UMPC based around a • 5.6″ WSVGA touch-sensitive display• 56-key QWERTY keyboard• Weighs 1.56lbs Size 6.75″ x 6″ x 1″ • Intel A110 processor, • 1GB DDR2 400MHz SDRAM, • 945GU Express Chipset, • Atheros Super AG WLAN/Integ BT • Vista Business /Vista Home Premium• D isplay runs at 1024×600• 40GB 4200RPM 1.8″ Hard disk

UMPC $1100+

• 1.2 GHz VIA C7®-M ULV Processor • 1.0 GB DDR2 SDRAM • 40GB HDD • Ultra Slim 7 " TFT-LCD Resistive Touch • 802.11b/g and Bluetooth 2.0+EDR • Windows® XP Tablet PC Edition 2005• Or openSUSE Linux

Tablet Kiosk 7112XT $1700

Moto Q9

IPAQ 510BB8700

Nokia N90

HTC X7500

Samsung f700

3G Smartphones < $1000

Nokia N810 Tablet

Tablet $1600+

Fujitsu U810

• Windows Mobile Pocket PC "Pro edition“• 3.5-inch QVGA touch-screen• Detachable QWERTY• UMTS 2100 with tri-band GSM/GPRS• 802.11b/g WiFi, • 256MB ROM / 64MB RAM• 2 megapixel camera• SD expansion, and USB 1.1 interface• 400MHz Samsung processor • Built-in GPS navigator • Java MIDP 2.0• Stereo FM radio • Video/audio album/File manager• TV out

Page 25: Mobile Pc.Cedt

2525

MU

Global Smartphone ProjectionsGlobal Smartphone Projections

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011YEar

OS Market Share

Other

Apple

Linux

Palm

Research in Motion

MSFT

Symbian

Smartphone Projections

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

500.00

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Consumer Sales (Mil)

Business Sales (Mil)

Projections by InstatSmartphone are Voice Centric, Wireless PDA are data centric

2011 Regional Share

North America

Western Europe

Asia Pacific

Central & Latin America

Central & Eastern Europe

Middle East & Africa

MU

Page 26: Mobile Pc.Cedt

2626

Docking

MobilePC : Example Low Cost MobilePC : Example Low Cost ArchitectureArchitecture

Intranet

Docker

Hom

e Office

Internet

ID

EE

SW

• Qwerty/Mouse• 6-10”Display• Portable

• CDMA/3GSM/Wimax• Wifi/BT/NIC• Mon/TV Out• HD/CD/SD Storage• Adjunct Processor

• MS Office• Sync & Backup• Email• Web 2.0• J2SE• Music/Video• MMOIP

Mid Tier Device

• Mid Tier Data Enabled Device for Voice+Data

• Docking Station to improveInternet User experience. ID is TBD

• Home Docker bundled with Browser/Email/MusicGaming Apps, VOIP

• Enterprise bundled withMS Office, J2SE

• Initial Launch in Growth markets