2021-2025 — Mobile Market Forecast
2021-2025— Mobile Market Forecast
Executive Summary: Highlights
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2
Global spending in mobile apps will reach $270 billion by 2025. The App Store will account for $185 billion at an annual growth rate of 20.7 percent, while Google Play will reach $85 billion with 16.9 percent annual growth over the next five years.
By 2024, user spending in non-games will surpass that of games on Apple’s App Store. Non-game app growth will also outpace that from games on Google Play. Across both stores, 49 percent of revenue will be from non-games by 2025.
App downloads surged in the first few months following the spread COVID-19, and a spike in revenue followed soon after. While growth rates are expected to return towards pre-COVID-19 levels in the next few years, some of the lift will persist.
Europe will see higher revenue growth than Asia and North America over the next five years, reaching $42 billion in 2025. 11 different European countries are projected to surpass $1 billion that year, compared to just four in 2020.
Table of Contents: Topics Covered
Methodology: A description of the data and methodology used to create the forecasts in this report.
Market Overview: A forecast for revenue and download growth on the App Store and Google Play, worldwide and in the U.S.
Top Regions: Projected revenue and downloads growth by 2025 by region on each platform, plus trends in Europe and Asia.
The 2021-2025 Mobile Market Forecast report offers a look ahead at consumer spending and downloads on the App Store and Google Play:
4.
5.
11.
Top Countries: A look at trends in the top markets on the App Store and Google Play for both revenue and downloads.
Top Categories: Revenue and download trends for games versus apps, as well as a look at the impact of COVID-19.
Conclusion: A summary of the key findings from the report.
25.
35.
3
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48.
Methodology: About the DataSensor Tower’s Mobile Insights team created the revenue and download forecasts featured in this report using the Sensor Tower Store Intelligence platform.
• Figures cited in this report reflect App Store and Google Play consumer spending and download estimates for January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2020.
• The market forecast for 2021 to 2025 is based on past spending and download trends, macroeconomic projections, and additional factors.
• All revenue figures in this report capture consumer spending (gross revenue). This includes the revenue earned by the app developer as well as the portion earned by Apple or Google.
• Android estimates represent revenue and downloads from the Google Play Store only. Sensor Tower does not provide spending or download estimates for third-party Android stores.
4
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
Market Overview
Global Mobile App Spending Forecast
Market Overview
Five-year gross revenue forecast for the App Store and Google Play
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
$270 Billion App Store + Google Play Revenue
By 2025
$185 Billion App Store Revenue
By 2025
$85 Billion Google Play Revenue
By 2025
$0
$100B
$200B
$300B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$270B$235B
$201B$170B
$142B$111B
+19.5% CAGR
$0
$100B
$200B
$300B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$185B$159B
$134B$112B$92B$72B
$0
$100B
$200B
$300B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$85B$76B$67B$58B$50B$39B
+20.7% CAGR
+16.9% CAGR
Global App Store and Google Play User Spending
Global App Store User Spending
Global Google Play User Spending
6
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
230 Billion App Store + Google Play Downloads
By 2025
43 Billion App Store Downloads
By 2025
187 Billion Google Play Downloads
By 2025
0
50B
100B
150B
200B
250B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
230B209B
188B171B155B143B
+10% CAGR
0
50B
100B
150B
200B
250B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
43B41B39B38B36B34B
+4.6% CAGR
0
50B
100B
150B
200B
250B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
187B168B
149B133B119B109B
+11.5% CAGR
Global App Store and Google Play Downloads
Global App Store Downloads
Global Google Play Downloads
Global Mobile App Download Forecast Five-year download forecast for the App Store and Google Play
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
7Market Overview
U.S. Mobile App Spending Forecast Five-year gross revenue forecast for the App Store and Google Play
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
$74 Billion App Store + Google Play Revenue
By 2025
$51 Billion App Store Revenue
By 2025
$23 Billion Google Play Revenue
By 2025
$0
$20B
$40B
$60B
$80B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$74B$66B
$58B$50B
$42B$33B
+17.7% CAGR
$0
$20B
$40B
$60B
$80B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$51B$45B
$38B$33B$27B
$21B
$0
$20B
$40B
$60B
$80B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$23B$21B$19B$17B$15B$12B
+19.6% CAGR
+14% CAGR
U.S. App Store and Google Play User Spending
U.S. App Store User Spending
U.S. Google Play User Spending
8Market Overview
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
16.9 Billion App Store + Google Play Downloads
By 2025
10.6 Billion App Store Downloads
By 2025
6.3 Billion Google Play Downloads
By 2025
0
5B
10B
15B
20B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
16.9B16.2B15.5B15.0B14.8B14.0B
+3.8% CAGR
0
5B
10B
15B
20B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
10.6B10.2B9.7B9.3B9.0B8.3B
+5.2% CAGR
0
5B
10B
15B
20B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
6.3B6.0B5.8B5.7B5.8B5.7B
+1.9% CAGR
U.S. App Store and Google Play Downloads
U.S. App Store Downloads
U.S. Google Play Downloads
U.S. Mobile App Download Forecast Five-year download forecast for the App Store and Google Play
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
9Market Overview
1. Global consumer spending in mobile apps is projected to reach $270 billion by 2025, nearly 2.5 times the $111 billion from 2020. Growth is expected to be strong on both stores, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21 percent on the App Store and 17 percent on Google Play over the next five years.
2. The spread of COVID-19 in 2020 did little to dampen mobile user spending. Growth accelerated in 2020, with user spending surging 30 percent year-over-year to $111 billion in 2020 (compared to 21 percent Y/Y growth in 2019). The mobile app space has proven itself to be resistant to many major market shifts, and we project continued stable growth as a result.
3. Adjustments to changes in daily life during COVID-19 propelled Y/Y download growth in 2020 to its highest total since at least 2016, with worldwide downloads surging 24 percent to 143 billion. Global downloads will reach 230 billion by 2025. While download growth is expected to slow as countries start to re-open, a portion of this lift will persist for years to come.
Key Takeaways: Market Overview
Market Overview
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$270 Billion App Store + Google Play Revenue
By 2025
$0
$100B
$200B
$300B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$270B$235B
$201B$170B
$142B$111B
+19.5% CAGR
Worldwide App Store and Google Play User Spending
230 Billion App Store + Google Play Downloads
By 2025
0
50B
100B
150B
200B
250B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
230B209B
188B171B155B143B
+10% CAGR
Worldwide App Store and Google Play Downloads
Top Regions
Top Regions
App Store Consumer Spending by Region
Gross Revenue by Region 2020
Gross Revenue by Region Projected 2025
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$22.3B$38.2B
$8.0B
$1.1B
$152M
$1.0B
$1.3B
$54.9B +146% $96.0B
+151%
$23.6B +196%
$3.4B +208%
$578M +280%
$3.0B +200%
$3.4B +158%$150M
$100B
$150M
$100B
12
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
Top Regions
Gross Revenue by Region 2020
Gross Revenue by Region Projected 2025
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
Google Play Consumer Spending by Region
$12.7B
$16.9B
$6.8B
$594M
$145M
$962M
$683M
$24.9B +97%
$34.3B +104%
$18.4B +169%
$1.5B +150%
$611M +320%
$3.0B +215%
$1.8B +168%$100M
$40B
$100M
$40B
13
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
Top Regions
App Store Downloads by Region
Downloads by Region 2020
Downloads by Region Projected 2025
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8.9B13.9B
7.3B
1.3B
312M
2.0B
585M
11.4B +28% 16.3B
+17%
9.4B +28%
1.4B +13%
711M +128%
2.9B +45%
735M +26%300M
20B
300M
20B
14
Top Regions
Google Play Downloads by Region
Downloads by Region 2020
Downloads by Region Projected 2025
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6.3B
49.9B
21.1B
2.8B
5.7B
22.5B
459M
6.8B +8%
103.2B +107%
27.5B +31%
3.4B +21%
11.3B +99%
34.5B +53%
482M +5%400M
110B
400M
110B
15
Europe Mobile App Spending Forecast Five-year gross revenue forecast for the App Store and Google Play
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
$42 Billion App Store + Google Play Revenue
By 2025
$24 Billion App Store Revenue
By 2025
$18 Billion Google Play Revenue
By 2025
$0
$10B
$20B
$30B
$40B
$50B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$42B$36B
$31B$25B
$20B$15B
+22.9% CAGR
$0
$10B
$20B
$30B
$40B
$50B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$24B$20B$17B$14B$11B$8B
$0
$16B
$32B
$48B
$64B
$80B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$18B$16B$14B$11B$9B$7B
+24.3% CAGR
+21.9% CAGR
European App Store and Google Play User Spending
European App Store User Spending
European Google Play User Spending
16
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
Top Regions
36.9 Billion App Store + Google Play Downloads
By 2025
9.4 Billion App Store Downloads
By 2025
27.5 Billion Google Play Downloads
By 2025
0
10B
20B
30B
40B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
36.9B34.7B32.5B30.8B29.5B28.4B
+5.4% CAGR
0
10B
20B
30B
40B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
9.4B9.0B8.5B8.2B7.9B7.3B
+5.1% CAGR
0
10B
20B
30B
40B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
27.5B25.7B24.0B22.6B21.6B21.1B
+5.5% CAGR
Europe App Store and Google Play Downloads
Europe App Store Downloads
Europe Google Play Downloads
Europe Mobile App Download Forecast Five-year download forecast for the App Store and Google Play
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
17Top Regions
Top Countries in Europe by Consumer Spending
In 2020, only four European countries reached the $1 billion milestone for consumer spending. The top 10 European countries in 2025 are all expected to surpass that mark in 2025, with six countries projected to reach $2 billion.
The Netherlands has the highest projected growth among the top 10. Its revenue surged 42 percent Y/Y in 2020, and we project a CAGR of 25 percent over the next five years. The country has a fairly even split between the two stores, with 60 percent of revenue from the App Store and 40 percent from Google Play in 2020.
Projected consumer spending for top European countries, App Store and Google Play
$0
$2B
$4B
$6B
$8B
$10B
U.K.
Germany
France
Russia
Italy
Switzerland
Turkey
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
$1.2B$1.5B$1.5B$1.6B$2.1B$2.3B
$2.7B
$4.6B
$7.3B$8.1B
$446M$532M$495M$553M$719M$801M$1.0B$1.7B
$2.8B$2.9B
2020 2025F
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+181%
+164%
+170%
+164%+191%
+191%+194% +210% +183%
+176%
Top Regions
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
Top Countries in Europe by Downloads
Some well-established European markets have modest growth projections. The U.K. and France's downloads are only expected to increase 5 percent over the next five years, and Germany’s downloads are projected to decline slightly.
Ukraine is a rising market in Europe, expected to pass France, Germany, Italy, and Spain by 2025. Much of this growth is expected to come from Google Play, which accounted for 86 percent of Ukraine’s downloads in 2020.
Projected downloads for top European countries, App Store and Google Play
0
2B
4B
6B
8B
10B
Russia
Turkey
U.K.
Ukraine
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
Poland
Romania
809M1.3B
1.8B2.0B2.3B2.4B2.6B2.7B
5.6B
8.8B
597M999M
1.6B1.9B2.4B2.3B
1.4B
2.5B
3.9B
6.0B
2020 2025F
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19
+47%
+44%
+5% +81% +5% -4%+6% +16%
+27%+35%
Top Regions
Asia Mobile App Spending Forecast Five-year gross revenue forecast for the App Store and Google Play
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
$130 Billion App Store + Google Play Revenue
By 2025
$96 Billion App Store Revenue
By 2025
$34 Billion Google Play Revenue
By 2025
$0
$50B
$100B
$150B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$130B$113B
$96B$82B
$69B$55B
+18.8% CAGR
$0
$50B
$100B
$150B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$96B$82B
$69B$58B$48B$38B
$0
$50B
$100B
$150B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$34B$31B$27B$24B$21B$17B
+20.2% CAGR
+15.3% CAGR
Asia App Store and Google Play User Spending
Asia App Store User Spending
Asia Google Play User Spending
20
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
Top Regions
119 Billion App Store + Google Play Downloads
By 2025
16 Billion App Store Downloads
By 2025
103 Billion Google Play Downloads
By 2025
0
50B
100B
150B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
119B106B
93B83B72B64B
+13.2% CAGR
0
50B
100B
150B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
16B16B15B15B14B14B
+3.2% CAGR
0
50B
100B
150B
2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
103B90B
78B68B58B50B
+15.7% CAGR
Asia App Store and Google Play Downloads
Asia App Store Downloads
Asia Google Play Downloads
Asia Mobile App Download Forecast Five-year download forecast for the App Store and Google Play
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
21Top Regions
Top Countries in Asia by Consumer Spending
China is projected to be the top country in Asia by consumer spending in 2025, all the more impressive considering this only includes App Store revenue in the country. Japan’s revenue is expected to reach $46 billion across the App Store and Google Play by 2025.
The Philippines will be a market of interest over the next several years. Its revenue grew by more than 65 percent Y/Y in 2020. While games still accounted for 72 percent of the country’s revenue in 2020, non-games had the higher growth of 110 percent Y/Y.
Projected consumer spending for top Asian countries, App Store and Google Play
$0
$10B
$20B
$30B
$40B
$50B
$60B
China*
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Thailand
Philippines
Malaysia
India
Indonesia
$1.4B$1.5B$1.7B$1.8B$2.5B$2.7B$5.0B
$10.7B
$45.6B
$54.7B
$534M$451M$530M$394M$858M$1.1B$2.5B$5.9B
$21.7B$20.1B
2020 2025F
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22
+173%
+110%
+80%
+100% +142% +109% +355% +230% +233% +161%
Top Regions
$1B $858M $394M $529M $455M $533M$1.5B $1.4B
$20B $22B
$55B
$46B
$11B
*Note: China’s totals only include the App Store since Google Play is not available in China.
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
Top Countries in Asia by Downloads
After download growth in India stalled in 2019, app adoption increased following the spread of COVID-19 in 2020. While growth is expected to decline again over the next few years, India is projected to surpass 60 billion downloads in 2025, growing more than 15x over the 10 years between 2015 and 2025.
There is quite a bit variance between the forecasts for top Asian markets. China, Japan, and South Korea are projected for growth between 0 and 15 percent between 2020 and 2025, while other markets such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan, and the Philippines will see downloads approximately double over the same period.
Projected downloads for top Asian countries, App Store and Google Play
0
10B
20B
30B
40B
50B
60B
70B
India
Indonesia
China*
Vietnam
Pakistan
Philippines
Thailand
Japan
South Korea
Malaysia
2.2B2.6B2.9B4.4B5.5B6.6B7.4B8.2B13.3B
60.3B
1.4B2.3B2.8B2.5B2.8B2.5B3.3B8.2B7.1B
27.1B
2020 2025F
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23
+123%
+87%
+0% +123% +167% +95% +78%+3% +14% +52%
Top Regions
1.4B
*Note: China’s totals only include the App Store since Google Play is not available in China.
1. Europe is key region to watch over the next five years. Europe’s projected revenue growth is higher than that in North America and Asia, with an expected CAGR of 23 percent over the next five years in Europe compared to 20 percent in Asia and 18 percent in North America. User spend in Europe will reach $42 billion by 2025 as a result.
2. Meanwhile, download growth over the next five years will be driven by Asia. The region will surpass 100 billion downloads on Google Play by 2025, with India accounting for more than half of these downloads. Other top markets like Indonesia, Vietnam, and Pakistan will also contribute to the region’s success.
3. Mobile spending continues to rise even as app adoption has slowed in some matured markets. While installs are only projected for a 3.6 percent CAGR in North America over the next five years, the revenue forecast has a CAGR of nearly 18 percent.
Key Takeaways: Top Regions
Top Regions
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24
Top Countries
App Store Countries by Consumer Spending
Top Countries
Top 10 countries by App Store consumer spending
United States
China
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
South Korea
Germany
Taiwan
Australia
France
+1
+1
-
-
-
-
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-
-3
+1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
United States
China
Japan
United Kingdom
Taiwan
Canada
South Korea
Germany
Australia
France
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
2021F
China
United States
Japan
United Kingdom
Canada
Germany
South Korea
Australia
Taiwan
France -
+1
-1
-
-
-1
+11
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-1
-
+1
2025F2020
26
China, the U.S., and Japan are all projected to surpass $28 billion in consumer spending by 2025. China is expected to edge out the U.S. that year, but the two countries will have similar trajectories over the next five years.
While there’s expected to be some change to the order of countries ranked between five and 10, the group will remain closely matched. Canada is projected to be the No. 5 country in 2025 at $3.7 billion, while France will rank No. 10 at $2.5 billion.
Projected consumer spending for the top five countries
App Store Spending by Country
Top Countries
The U.S. surpassed China in App Store revenue in Q2 2020, the first time it ranked ahead of China since Q4 2018. U.S. revenue surged following the spread of COVID-19 in early 2020, particularly driven by mobile games. The two countries are projected for similar growth over the next five years.
Growth rates from other top countries are similar, with Japan lagging slightly behind the rest. The top three countries on the App Store will remain well ahead of the rest for the foreseeable future.
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27
$0
$10B
$20B
$30B
$40B
$50B
$60B
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
U.S. +20% CAGR
Japan +17% CAGR
U.K. +23% CAGRCanada +22% CAGR
China +22% CAGR
China U.S. Japan U.K. Canada
App Store
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
Top Countries
United States
Japan
South Korea
Germany
United Kingdom
Taiwan
France
Canada
Australia
Thailand
-
+1
-
-
-
-
NEW
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-
-
-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
United States
Japan
South Korea
Germany
Taiwan
United Kingdom
France
Canada
Australia
Brazil
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2021F
United States
Japan
South Korea
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Taiwan
Canada
Australia
Philippines NEW
-
-1
-
-
-
-1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-
-
+1
2025F2020
28
Google Play Countries by Consumer SpendingTop 10 countries by Google Play consumer spending
The only expected movement among the top five Google Play countries is the U.K. passing Taiwan to rank No. 5. South Korea, No. 7 on the App Store, ranks No. 3 on Google Play.
Three different countries are expected to rank at No. 10 in 2020, 2021, and 2025. All are forecast to have approximately $1.2 billion in consumer spending on Google Play in 2025.
Google Play Spending by Country
Top Countries
Google Play revenue growth in the U.S. and Japan accelerated in 2020. In the U.S., growth increased following the spread of COVID-19, particularly among games. Spending in mobile games is expected to remain high in 2021 as consumers continue to spend more time at home during COVID-19.
Among the top five countries, the U.K. has the highest projected revenue CAGR at 22 percent, followed by Germany at 19 percent. The top Asian countries, Japan and South Korea, are projected for lower growth.
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29
$0
$5B
$10B
$15B
$20B
$25B
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Japan +15% CAGR
South Korea +9% CAGR
U.K. +22% CAGR
Germany +19% CAGR
U.S. +14% CAGR
U.S. Japan South Korea Germany U.K.
Projected consumer spending for the top five countries
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
Top Countries
United States
China
Japan
United Kingdom
Russia
France
Brazil
Germany
Vietnam
Saudi Arabia
-1
-
-
-
-
-
-2
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
+1
+1
+1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
United States
China
Japan
United Kingdom
Russia
Brazil
France
Saudi Arabia
Germany
Vietnam
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
2021F
United States
China
Japan
Russia
United Kingdom
Brazil
Vietnam
France
India
Germany -2
-2
+2
+1
-
-
-1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
NEW
-1
+1
2025F2020
30
App Store Countries by DownloadsTop 10 countries by App Store downloads
The top three countries by App Store downloads match those by revenue, and the U.K. is also among the top five by both downloads and revenue. Russia, the No. 5 country by downloads in 2020, was outside the top 10 by revenue.
Vietnam is expected to climb three positions between 2020 and 2025, while India will enter the top 10 at No. 9. Saudi Arabia's ascent in 2020 appears to be driven by COVID-19 and it is expected to fall out of the top 10 by 2025.
Projected downloads for the top five countries
App Store Downloads by Country
Top Countries
China’s downloads declined from 9.1 billion in 2018 to 8.2 billion in 2020. The influence of government regulation makes it a difficult market to predict and, as a result, some domestic publishers have been shifting their focus to other markets.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has seen steady growth and is expected to surpass 10 billion downloads by 2024. The U.S saw double-digit Y/Y growth for three consecutive years between 2018 and 2020.
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0
2B
4B
6B
8B
10B
12B
14B
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
China +0% CAGR
Russia +6% CAGRU.K. +1% CAGR
Japan +2% CAGR
U.S. +5% CAGR
U.S. China Japan Russia U.K.
App Store
Top Countries
India
Brazil
Indonesia
United States
Russia
Mexico
Turkey
Vietnam
Pakistan
Egypt
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
NEW
-
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
India
Brazil
Indonesia
United States
Russia
Mexico
Turkey
Vietnam
Philippines
Egypt
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
2021F
India
Brazil
Indonesia
Russia
Pakistan
United States
Vietnam
Mexico
Egypt
Philippines +1
-2
+1
+1
-
-
-1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
+1
+4
-2
2025F2020
32
Google Play Countries by DownloadsTop 10 countries by Google Play downloads
After U.S. downloads on Google Play peaked at nearly 5.8 billion in 2016, installs decreased year-over-year for three consecutive years. Buoyed by COVID-19, downloads bounced back in 2020 to nearly reach the peak seen in 2016. A modest CAGR of 2 percent is projected for the next five years.
Pakistan, Vietnam, and Mexico are projected for strong growth over the next five years. These countries will join the U.S. at approximately 6 billion downloads in 2025.
Google Play Downloads by Country
Top Countries
India will continue to dominate the Google Play market, approaching 60 billion annual downloads by 2025. The forecast of 18 percent CAGR for the next five years is substantially lower than the 49 percent CAGR India achieved over the previous five years, but the growth rate had shown signs of slowing even before the arrival of COVID-19.
Indonesia surpassed the U.S. in 2019 and expanded its lead to more than 1 billion by 2020. Indonesia is expected to have more than twice as many installs than the U.S. in 2025.
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0
10B
20B
30B
40B
50B
60B
70B
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Brazil +8% CAGR
U.S. +2% CAGR
Indonesia +13% CAGRRussia +8% CAGR
India +18% CAGR
India Brazil Indonesia Russia U.S.
Projected downloads for the top five countries
1. While government regulation has had an impact on China’s app downloads, revenue growth has remained strong. China’s user spend on the App Store is expected to approach $55 billion by 2025, a CAGR of 22 percent.
2. India will remain the dominant market for downloads, with a forecasted 18 percent CAGR to reach 60 billion downloads across the App Store and Google Play. This is well ahead of the next two countries, the U.S. and Brazil, at 17 billion and 16 billion, respectively.
3. The U.S. will remain a top market on both platforms, with a projected revenue CAGR of 20 percent on the App Store and 14 percent on Google Play. It will continue to be a top market on the App Store in particular, with app adoption growing at a CAGR of 7 percent on that platform. Between 2020 and 2025, the App Store’s share of U.S. downloads will climb from 59 percent to 63 percent, with Google Play’s share dropping from 41 percent to 37 percent.
Key Takeaways: Top Countries
Top Countries
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34
Top Categories
App Store Spending Growth for Games vs. Apps
Mobile app revenue will surpass that from mobile games by 2024, and apps will surpass $100 billion by 2025. Driven by the significant success of the in-app subscription model, app revenue increased 4.7x between 2016 and 2020, compared to an increase of 2x for games.
App Store game revenue is projected to grow 64 percent by 2025, or a CAGR of 10.3 percent. This is a considerable slowdown from the 19.4 CAGR over the previous four years as mobile gaming markets have become increasingly competitive.
Top Categories
Projected consumer spending in mobile games versus apps
$0
$50B
$100B
$150B
$200B
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$107B
$86B
$67B
$50B
$36B
$24B
$18B$13B $78B$73B$68B$62B$56B
$48B$38B$32B
Games Apps
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
36
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
App Store Revenue Share by Category
By 2025, 58 percent of revenue is projected to come from non-game apps. This is a substantial increase from the 34 percent taken by non-games in 2020. Games are expected to exhibit solid growth over the next five years, but it will be dwarfed by that seen from many non-game categories.
Photo & Video apps have flourished in recent years, led by the likes of TikTok and YouTube. Photo & Video app revenue is projected to surpass $23 billion in 2025.
Projected consumer spending for top categories
2019
2020
2021F
2025F
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
19%
13%
12%
11%
4%
3%
3%
3%
7%
5%
5%
5%
11%
8%
7%
7%
13%
7%
5%
4%
42%
61%
66%
68%
Games Photo & Video Entertainment Social Networking Books Music Other
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
37Top Categories
2%
2%
3%
4%
Google Play Spending Growth for Games vs. Apps
Consumer spending on Google Play will reach $85 billion in 2025, comprised of $60 billion from mobile games and $25 billion from non-games. Games will have a CAGR of 13.3 percent between 2020 and 2025, and non-games will have a CAGR of 29.8 percent.
Non-game revenue climbed from $1.2 billion in 2016 to $6.7 billion in 2020. Expect strong growth among non-games to continue over the next five years to nearly $25 billion, or 3.7x the 2020 total.
Projected consumer spending in mobile games versus apps
$0
$10B
$20B
$30B
$40B
$50B
$60B
$70B
$80B
$90B
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
$25B
$21B
$17B
$13B
$10B
$7B
$5B$3B
$60B$55B
$50B$45B
$40B$32B
$25B$21B
Games Apps
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
38Top Categories
Note Regarding Revenue Estimates We report gross revenue (including the cut for Apple or Google). Android estimates do not include third-party stores.
Google Play Revenue Share by Category
Games will continue to take a comparatively higher share on Google Play than the App Store, with a projected 71 percent share from games in 2025 compared to just 42 percent on the App Store. Mobile gaming’s share of revenue on Google Play has also fallen due to quickly increasing revenue for non-game apps.
Social was the only category outside of games to surpass $1 billion in 2020. Seven different non-game categories are projected to surpass that total in 2025, led by Social at $4 billion and Entertainment at $3.5 billion.
Projected consumer spending for top categories
2019
2020
2021F
2025F
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
13%
9%
8%
8%
5%
4%
3%
2%
71%
80%
83%
85%
Games Social Entertainment Comics Productivity Health and Fitness Other
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
39Top Categories
2% 1% 2% <1%
1% 2% 1%
3%
4%
3%
4%
2% 2%
2% 1%
3%
Download growth for apps and games alike increased in 2020, with adjustments due to COVID-19 a contributing factor. Trends are expected to return towards the pre-2020 average as countries gradually re-open and shift back towards pre-COVID-19 behavior.
Unlike the trends seen for revenue, mobile games are projected for slightly higher growth than non-games. Games have a projected CAGR of 5.2 percent, compared to 4.3 percent for apps.
0
10B
20B
30B
40B
50B
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
29.9B28.5B
27.2B26.1B
25.4B24.2B
21.5B21.1B
13.0B12.5B11.9B11.4B10.5B10.1B9.2B8.9B
Games Apps
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
40
App Store Download Growth for Games vs. AppsProjected downloads of mobile games versus apps
Top Categories
App Store Download Share by Category
Category market share is much more stable for App Store downloads than for revenue. Games will take approximately 30 percent of the market, and the top five non-game categories will take another 30 percent.
The order among the top categories will shift slightly by 2025. Finance, Shopping, and Lifestyle will move up, while Entertainment and Utilities will drop out of the top five.
Projected downloads for top categories
2019
2020
2021F
2025F
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
40%
40%
41%
40%
5%
6%
7%
7%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
6%
5%
4%
5%
7%
8%
7%
8%
30%
29%
29%
30%
Games Photo & Video Finance Lifestyle Shopping Entertainment Other
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
41Top Categories
Google Play download growth in 2020 also shows the impact of COVID-19. App install climbed 19 percent to 62 billion, while games had 35 percent growth to 46 billion.
Unlike the App Store, games are projected for lower growth than non-games on Google Play. Non-games have a CAGR forecast of 14.1 percent between 2020 and 2025 compared to 7.5 percent for games.
0
50B
100B
150B
200B
2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
121B
107B
94B
83B72B
62B
52B46B
66B61B55B50B47B46B34B29B
Games Apps
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42
Google Play Download Growth for Games vs. AppsProjected downloads for mobile games versus apps
Top Categories
Google Play Download Share by Category
Google Play game downloads share is expected to return to 39 percent in 2021 after jumping to 43 percent in 2020. Adventure, Role Playing, and Trivia were the top growing game categories in 2020.
Video Players are projected to be the the biggest non-game category by 2025, followed by Entertainment and Social. Tools are expected to fall from No. 2 in 2020 to No. 6 in 2025.
Projected downloads for top categories
2019
2020
2021F
2025F
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
33%
35%
34%
37%
5%
6%
6%
7%
6%
4%
3%
3%
6%
5%
4%
5%
6%
6%
5%
6%
8%
5%
4%
4%
35%
39%
43%
39%
Games Video Players Entertainment Social Finance Tools Other
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
43Top Categories
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20Jul-2
0
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21Jul-2
1
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Estimated change in download growth from COVID-19
Impact of COVID-19 on App Store Downloads
Top Countries
The outbreak of COVID-19 caused a massive surge of app adoption as consumers adjusted to stay-at-home life. Business, Education, Medical, and Health & Fitness downloads all spiked in the spring of 2020. Games also saw an initial spike in downloads, but a dip in hyper-casual game adoption offset this by later in the year.
Meanwhile, Travel and Navigation both saw substantial declines while consumers remained at home. Sports installs also fell as games were cancelled or postponed, but downloads returned when play resumed during the summer and fall.
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44
Business Education Medical Health & Fitness Social NetworkingGames Sports Navigation Travel
0
50M
100M
150M
200M
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Estimated Downloads without COVID-19 Estimated COVID-19 Impact
Monthly App Store downloads
Impact of COVID-19 on Business App Adoption
Top Countries
Business app downloads spiked at the start of 2020 in the wake of lockdowns due to COVID-19. These apps saw increased adoption throughout the rest of 2020 as many offices remained closed.
Installs were still high entering 2021. While downloads will decline as offices reopen and in-person work returns, expect some of the lift to persist into 2022 and beyond.
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
45
Forecast
0
50M
100M
150M
200M
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Estimated Downloads without COVID-19Downloads
Impact of COVID-19 on Travel App Adoption
Top Countries
COVID-19 had an opposite effect on Travel apps compared to Business apps. Travel downloads plummeted during lockdowns and stay-at-home orders in spring 2020.
Travel downloads recovered slightly during summer 2020 but still were down 42 percent Y/Y in December. Installs should rise steadily over the next few years, although it may be after 2021 when they return to 2019 levels.
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
46
Forecast
Monthly App Store downloads
1. Spending in non-game apps continued to climb rapidly on both the App Store and Google Play. App Store revenue from non-games is expected to surpass that from games in 2024 off of 34.3 percent annual growth. Google Play non-game revenue lags behind that on the App Store but it is still projected nearly 30 percent growth annually.
2. COVID-19 affected each category differently in 2020. Business app adoption surged in the spring as workers turned to apps to assist their transition to working from home. While downloads are expected to fall back towards pre-COVID-19 levels over the next few years, expect some of these changes to be persistent into 2025 and beyond.
3. The category market share for downloads will be much more stable than it is for revenue. Games are projected to account for around 30 percent of the downloads on the App Store and 35 to 40 percent of the downloads on Google Play for the next five years.
Key Takeaways: Top Categories
© 2021 Sensor Tower Inc. - All Rights Reserved
47Top Categories
48
Conclusion
● Mobile app spending and downloads surged in 2020 following the spread of COVID-19, and strong growth is projected over the next five years. By 2025, apps will reach $270 billion in global user spend and 230 billion downloads. The mobile space has shown that it can not just endure, but thrive following major market shifts.
● App revenue growth from non-games will continue to outpace that from games. Revenue outside of gaming on the App Store will increase 34.3 percent annually over the next five years and will surpass that from games by 2024. Non-game apps on Google Play will see a CAGR of 29.8 percent, compared to 13.3 percent from games.
● Top markets will continue to see substantial growth. Strong projected revenue growth in the U.S., China, and Japan will keep these markets well ahead of any other countries. Meanwhile, a resurgence in India’s downloads puts it on track to reach 60 billion annual installs by 2025.
● Europe will be a key market over the next five years. Revenue growth in Europe is excepted to outpace that in Asia and North America. Europe is also a region that is not dominated by any single country—the region’s forecast is boosted by solid growth across top countries.
Conclusion
Conclusion 49
Sensor Tower Solutions
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