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Mobile Apps –Present, Past, and Future

Dan Gordon Director of Research, Valhalla Partners

[email protected] Twitter: @pipik

WHERE WERE WE LAST MAY?

Mobile Client Wars (from 2011)

What’s the Apple/Android Rivalry All About? (from 2011)

• An Old Story from the 80’s

• It’s all about the apps, stupid

• Steve Jobs vs. Bill Gates vs. Sergey & Larry

Convergence/Divergence (from 2011)

Networks… Converge

• Proprietary networks killed by Ethernet/IP/TCP – X.25

– VANs

– EDI

– TDM

– Fibre Channel

– Cable?

• Networks become dumb pipes despite wishes of their owners

Edge Devices… Diverge

• The “right” device trumps the “one” device

• New devices – Smartphones

– Netbooks

– Tablets

– Nettops

– Set-top boxes?

• New devices can anchor and consolidate value chains

WHERE ARE WE TODAY?

Smartphone market

• Android is ahead

• RIM is finished

• Microsoft?

• Apple is still growin, is still “leader” in some senses

Apple subs (counting iPad, etc.)

Apple iOS vs. Android OS Across Media Devices 3 Mo. Avg. Ending February 2011 Total U.S. Mobile Subscribers, Age 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens

Total Installed Base (000)

Share (%) of Mobile Subscribers

Total Subscribers 234,000 100.0%

Apple iOS 37,868 16.2%

Android OS 23,763 10.2%

Another Way to Look at iPads Mobile Phone OEM Breakdown for Apple iPad Owners 3 Mo. Avg. Ending February 2011 Total U.S. Mobile Subscribers, Age 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens

% of Smartphone Users

% of iPad Users

Index of iPad to Smartphone Owners*

Total Subscribers 100.0% 100.0% 100

Apple 25.2% 27.3% 108

RIM 28.9% 17.5% 61

Samsung 8.6% 14.3% 167

LG 3.6% 12.1% 340

Motorola 10.7% 9.0% 84

Nokia 2.3% 3.4% 149

And Another Way to Think about iPads

• Android tablets are still pretty sorry

• Consumers will not infinitely pay more

• Focus on “killer app” is important

• Amazon is a really interesting company

U.S. Market Share of Android Tablets by Unique Devices Dec-2011, Jan-2012, Feb-2012 Total U.S. Source: comScore Device Essentials*

% Share of Android Tablets

Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12

Amazon Kindle Fire 29.4% 41.8% 54.4%

Samsung Galaxy Tab Family 23.8% 19.1% 15.4%

Motorola Xoom 11.8% 9.0% 7.0%

Asus Transformer 6.4% 6.2% 6.3%

Toshiba AT100 7.1% 7.0% 5.7%

Acer Picasso 6.0% 5.2% 4.3%

Acer Iconia 2.8% 2.6% 2.1%

Dell Streak 2.2% 1.7% 1.3%

Lenovo IdeaPad Tablet K1 0.7% 0.9% 1.2%

Sony Tablet S 0.9% 0.8% 0.7%

Other 8.9% 5.6% 1.6%

How to think about iOS vs. Android

• 2 reasons why iOS works

– Controls experience

– Has an artifact

• 2 reasons why iOS doesn’t work

– Developers turned off

– Advertisers turned off

APPS ARE KOOL…

What “Everyone” Does with Apps

How about that texting??

Types of Information

Multi-Use

4 things I like in an app

• Web Second – Apps are more critical to adoption – Apps are harder to get right – Web is still a junky UI/UX environment

• Ubiquity – Main issue for me is running on desktop, laptop,

Android, and iOS – Synchronizing

• Gesture and voice • “Fun”

– Clear on iOS

Google Glasses (and other AR)

Hone AR for Use Case

Form Factor Matters (Smart Contacts)

Siri vs. Google Voice

Crowdsourcing (e.g., Waze)

• Map/Nav/Traffic

• Bottom-up build

• UGC

• Social

What is unique about SoLoMo?

Collaborative Consumption (e.g., Wheelz)

• Youth-limited?

• Does value proposition survive “Green” veneer?

Quantified Self (e.g., FitBit)

Screen clipping taken: 4/28/2012 7:06 AM

Screen clipping taken: 4/28/2012 7:09 AM

APPS ARE COOL, BUT ONLY PART OF THE PICTURE

What Can the Past Teach Us about the Future of Mobile?

What 1980’s 2000’s

A new device caught fire PC (Apple II, IBM PC) Smart mobile client (iPhone, iPad)

With killer apps Spreadsheet, Word Processing eMail, calendar, web (via apps)

It vexed IS/IT File servers, LANs, modems MDM, MAM, BYOD

It transformed IT Client-sever computing, LANs Mobile cloud ??, ubiquitous computing ??

It transformed servers “commodity” scale-out servers, clusters

SSDs, GPUs, ARM??

Apps went away • Browsers • Salesforce • Web apps • 1995 PC vs. 2005 PC

HTML 5??

The “open” platform shellacked the “closed” platform

PC trounced Mac ????

Cloud and Mobile • Cloud provides integration

• Cloud provides performance

• Cloud provides scale

• Cloud provides ubiquity

• Both B2C and B2B

Big Data and Mobile

• Big Data as part of user value proposition (e.g., Augmented reality and Big Data)

• Big Data as part of user monetization (e.g., PlaceIQ)

Security and Mobile

• Security today: MDM – Device oriented (kill,

hardened apps) – Device belongs to

company

• Security tomorrow: BYOD – Need to distinguish

(and wall) personal and business use

– Can’t brick the phone

• Not just a B2B issue

Client (Device & App) Management and Mobile

Connected TVs, Nettops, Settops

M2M

Other wireless/mobile clients

• Converged network, divergent devices

• Future of the nav system, other thick clients

• The Future of Apps

Thank You

Dan Gordon Director of Research, Valhalla Partners

[email protected] Twitter: @pipik