8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
1/36
MATRIKULASI (3):METODE KUANTITATIVE BISNIS
MANAJEMEN PROYEK
Oleh:
MUSTARUDDIN, SE, Msi, PhD3/10/2012 1
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
2/36
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Adanya berbagai tingkat kegiatan yang dijabarkansecara detail, dan setiap kegiatan dapat dipecahmenjadi komponen yang terpisah.
Waktu, biaya, persyaratan sumber daya, aktivitaspendahulu, dan orang-orang bertanggung jawabdiidentifikasi untuk setiap kegiatan.
Program evaluation and review technique (PERT)and critical part method(CPM) adalah dua teknikyang populer untuk analisis kuantitatif yang dapatmembantu manajer untuk perencanaan,penjadwalan , pemantauan, dan pengendalianproyek-proyek besar dan kompleks.
3/10/2012 2
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
3/36
Six steps of PERT / CPM
Definisikan proyek dan semua aktivitas atau tugas-tugaspenting.
Mengembangkan hubungan antara kegiatan danmenentukan kegiatan yang harus mendahului aktivitasyang lain.
Gambarkan jaringan yang menghubungkan semuakegiatan.
Tetapkan waktu dan / atau perkiraan biaya untuk setiapaktivitas.
Hitunglah waktu terlama yang melalui jaringan: inidisebut bagian penting.
Gunakan jaringan untuk membantu merencanakan,menjadwalkan, memantau, dan mengendalikanproyek.
3/10/2012 3
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
4/36
Questions answered by PERT:
Kapan keseluruhan proyek akan selesai?Apakah orang-orang yang melaksanakan
kegiatan atau tugas penting dalam proyek,
dapat berakibat penundaan keseluruhanproyek jika mereka terlambat menyelesaikantugasnya?
Manakah kegiatan nonkritis, yaitu aktivitastertentu yang dapat ditunda pengerjaannyatanpa menunda penyelesaian keseluruhanproyek?
3/10/2012 4
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
5/36
Jika ada tiga waktu perkiraan, berapaprobabilitas proyek akan selesai tepat waktu?
Pada tanggal tertentu, apakah proyek sesuaijadwal, terlambat, or lebih cepat dari jadwal?
Pada tanggal tertentu, apakah biaya yangdikeluarkan adalah =, < atau > dari jumlah yang
dianggarkan?
Apakah ada cukup sumber daya yang tersediauntuk menyelesaikan proyek tepat waktu?
3/10/2012 5
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
6/36
Contoh Kasus:
PT. ABC adalah sebuah perusahaan penghasilberbagai jenis produk baja. Selama ini perusahaanterus menghindar untuk mengontrol polusi udara asappabrik bajanya. Namun karena desakan dari penggiatlingkungan dan pemerintah setempat, maka memaksa
perusahaan untuk mengurangi polusi udaraperusahaan dengan merencanakan untuk memasangalat pengontrol polusi udara dari asap pabriknya.Pemerintah kota telah mengultimatum perusahaanuntuk menyelesaikan pemasangan penyaring udara di
pabriknya dalam waktu 16 minggu, jika tidakpabriknya akan segera ditutup. PT. Vornis, sebagaikontraktor pelaksana pembangunan Alat PenyaringUdara (APU) menginginkan bahwa pemasangan APUberjalan lancar dan tepat waktu.
3/10/2012 6
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
7/36
Proyek dimulai dengan membangun komponenalatpenyaringan internal (aktivitas A), dan modifikasilantai dan atap (Modify floor and roof, sebagaiaktivitas B). Konstruksi daripada alat pengumpulasap, collection stack(aktivitas C) dapat dimulai
sesaat aktivitas A telah selesai dan pemasanganrangka dan wadah penampung (pouring the newconcrete and install frame, aktivitas D dapatdiselesaikan segera setelah lantai dan atapdimodifikasi. Setelah aktivitas C selesai dibangun,kegiatan selanjutnya adalah aktivitas E, yaitupembangunan alat pembakar dengan temperaturtinggi (high-temperature burner) dan pemasangansistem pengontrol polusi (aktivitas F) dapat segeradimulai setelah aktivitas C tersebut selesai dikerjakan.
3/10/2012 7
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
8/36
Alat pengontrol udara (air pollutiondevice) dapat dipasang (aktivitas G)setelah aktivitas D dan E selesai
dikerjakan. Terakhir setelah pemasangansistem kontrol dan alat pengontrol polusiudara terpasang,maka kegiatan terakhiradalah melakukan inspeksi dan tahap uji
coba alat pengontrol polusi udara yangtelah terpasang tersebut (aktivitas H).
3/10/2012 8
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
9/36
ACTIVITY DESCEPTION IMMIDIATEPREDECESSORS
A Build internal components -
B Modify roof and floor -
C Construct collection stack AD Pour concrete and install frame B
E Build high-temperature burner C
F Install control system C
G Install air pollution device D, E
H Inspect and test F, G
Table 1. Activities and Immediate Predecessors for PT. ABC
3/10/2012 9
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
10/36
Start
ABuild Internal
Components
CConstructCollection
Stack
FInstall Control
System
EBuild Burner
HInspect and
Test
Finish
BModify Roofand Floor
DPour Concrete
and Install
Frame
GInstall
Pollution
Device
Figure 1. NETWORK FOR PT. ABC
3/10/2012 10
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
11/36
Table 2. Time Estimates (Weeks) for PT. ABC
ACTIVITY OPTIMISTIC, a
MOSTPROBABLE,
m
PESSIMISTIC, b
EXPECTEDTIME, t
=[(a+4m+b)/6]
VARIANCE,[(b-a)/6]2
A 1 2 3 2 (3-1/6)2
B 2 3 4 3 (4-2/6)2
C 1 2 3 2 (3-1/6)2
D 2 4 6 4 (6-2/6)2
E 1 4 7 4 (7-1/6)2
F 1 2 9 3 (9-1/6)2
G 3 4 11 5 (11-3/6)2
H 1 2 3 2 (3-1/6)2
253/10/2012 11
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
12/36
How to Find the Critical Path
Although Table 2 indicates that the totalexpected time for all eight of PT ABCs
activities is 25 weeks, it is obvious inFigure 2 that several of tasks can betaking place simultaneously.
Critical path is the longest time path routethrough the network.
3/10/2012 12
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
13/36
Start
A 2 C 2 F 3
E 4 H 2 Finish
B 3 D 4 G 5
Figure 2. PT. ABCs NETWORK WITH EXPECTED ACTIVITY TIME
3/10/2012 13
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
14/36
To find the critical path, we need to determinethe following quantities for each activity in thenetwork:1.Earliest start time (ES): the earliest time an
activity can begin without violation ofimmediate predecessor requirements.
2.Earliest finish time (EF): the earliest time atwhich an activity can end.
3.Latest start time (LS): the latest time an
activity can begin without delaying the entireproject.4.Latest finish time (LF): the latest time an
activity can end without delaying the entireproject.
3/10/2012 14
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
15/36
EARLIEST TIMES
Earliest Finish time (EF) = Earliest Start time (ES) +Expected activity time (t)
Earliest Start (ES) = Largest EF of immediatepredecessors
Start
A t = 2
ES = 0 EF = 0 + 2 = 2
B t = 3
ES = 0 EF = 0 + 3 = 3
3/10/2012 15
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
16/36
Start
A 20 2
C 22 4
F 34 7
E 44 8
H 213 15
Finish
B 30 3
D 43 7
G 58 13
Figure 3. PT. ABCs EARLIEST START (ES) AND EARLIEST FINISH(EF) TIMES
3/10/2012 16
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
17/36
LATEST TIMES
Latest Start time (LS) = Latest Finish time (LF) Activity time (t)
Latest Finish time (LF) = Smallest LS of followingactivities.
For instance:Finish time for PT. ABCs project is 15 weeks,activity H has LF=15. Thus latest start for activity His: LS = LF t = 15 -2 = 13 weeks
3/10/2012 17
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
18/36
Start
A 20 20 2
C 2
2 4
2 4
F 3
4 7
10 13
E 4
4 8
4 8
H 2
13 15
13 15
Finish
B 3
0 3
1 4
D 4
3 7
4 8
G 5
8 13
8 13
Figure 4. PT. ABCs LATEST START (LS) AND LATEST FINISH (LF) TIMES
3/10/2012 18
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
19/36
Concept of Slack in Critical PathComputations:
Slack time is free time for an activity
Slack = LS ES, or Slack = LF EF
For instance:
Activity B, has 1 week of slack time since:
LS ES = 1 0 = 1, or LF EF = 4 3 = 1
3/10/2012 19
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
20/36
ACTIVITY ES EF LS LF SLACK, LS- ES
ONCRITICAL
PATH?
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes
Table 3. PT. ABCs Schedule and Slack Times
3/10/2012 20
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
21/36
Start
A 20 20 2
C 2
2 4
2 4
F 3
4 7
10 13
E 4
4 8
4 8
H 2
13 15
13 15
Finish
B 30 31 4
D 43 74 8
G 5
8 13
8 13
Figure 5. PT. ABCs CRITICAL PART (A-C-E-G-H)
3/10/2012 21
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
22/36
Probability of Project Completion
Computing project variance is done bysumming activity variances along thecritical path.
Project variance= variances of activities on the critical path,
= 4/36 + 4/36 + 36/36 + 64/36 + 4/36
= 112/36 = 3.111 Project standard deviation = T
= Project Variance = 3.11 = 1.76 weeks
3/10/2012 22
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
23/36
Computing the probability of projectcompletion:
Z = Due date Expected date completion / T= 16 weeks 15 weeks / 1.76 weeks
= 0.57
Where Z is the number of standard deviations the due
date or target date lies from the mean or expected date.
Referring top the normal distribution table, we find a
probability 0f 0.71566. Thus, there is a 71.6% chance
that the pollution control equipment can be put in place
in 16 weeks or less (see Figure 6).
3/10/2012 23
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
24/36
0.57 Standard DeviationExpected Time is 15weeks
Probability (T 16 weeks) is71.6%
15 weeks 16 weeks Time
Figure 6. Probability of PT. ABCs Meeting the 16-weeks Deadline
3/10/2012 24
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
25/36
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
26/36
3. Convert the budget cost per activity into a cost
per time period. For example: If the budgetedcost for a given activity is Rp48 Million and theactivitys expected time is 4 weeks, thebudgeted cost per week is Rp12M.
4. Using the earliest and latest start times, find outhow much money should be spent during each
week or month to finish the project by the datedesired.
3/10/2012 26
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
27/36
Budgeting for PT. ABC
ACTIVITY ES LS EXPECTED TIME, t
TOTALBUDGETED COST
(RpMillion )
BUDGETED COST
PERWEEK (RpMillion )
A 0 0 2 22 1B 0 1 3 30 10
C 2 2 2 26 13
D 3 4 4 48 12
E 4 4 4 56 14F 4 10 3 30 10
G 8 8 5 80 16
H 13 13 2 16 8
Total 308
Table 4. ACTIVITY COST FOR PT. ABC
3/10/2012 27
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
28/36
AB
C
D
E
F
G
H
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
A
C
T
I
V
I
T
Y
WEEK
Figure 7. GANTT CART FOR PT. ABC
3/10/2012 28
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
29/36
W E E K
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 TTL
A 11 11
B 10 10 10 30
C 13 13 26
D 12 12 12 12 48
E 14 14 14 14 56
F 10 10 10 30
G 16 16 16 16 16 80
H 8 8 16
308TTL/W
21 21 23 25 36 36 36 14 16 16 16 16 16 8 8
TTLTO
DT
21 42 65 90 126 162 198 212 228 244 260 276 292 300 308
Table 5. BUDGETED COST (Rp Million) for PT. ABC, Using EARLIEST STARTTIMES
3/10/2012 29
b f
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
30/36
W E E K
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 TTL
A 11 11
B 10 10 10 30
C 13 13 26
D 12 12 12 12 48
E 14 14 14 14 56
F 10 10 10 30
G 16 16 16 16 16 80
H 8 8 16
308
TTL/ W
11 21 23 23 26 26 26 26 16 16 26 26 26 8 8
TTLTO
DT
11 32 55 78 104 130 156 182 198 214 240 266 292 300 308
Table 6. BUDGETED COST (Rp Million) for PT. ABC, Using LATEST STARTTIMES
3/10/2012 30
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
31/36
Project Crashing
Shortening a project by using overtime, workingweekends, hiring extra workers, equipment, itmay possible to finish a project in less time thanis normally required.
The crash time is the shortest possible activitytime, and this requires the use of additional
resources.
The crash cost is the price of completing the
activity in an earlier-than-normal time.3/10/2012 31
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
32/36
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
33/36
ACTIVITY TIME
NORMAL
(WEEKS)
CRASH
COST (Rp)
NORMAL CRASH
CRASH COST
PER WEEK
CRITICAL
PATH?
A 2 1 22 JT 23 JT 1 JT YES
B 3 1 30 JT 34 JT 2 JT NO
C 2 1 26 JT 27 JT 1 JT YES
D 4 3 48 JT 49 JT 1 JT NO
E 4 2 56 JT 58 JT 1 JT YES
F 3 2 30 JT 30.5 JT 0.5 JT NO
G 5 2 80 JT 86 JT 2 JT YES
H 2 1 16 JT 19 JT 3 JT YES
TOTAL 308 JT 326.5 JT 18.5 JT
Table 7. NORMAL AND CRASH DATA FOR PT. ABC
3/10/2012 33
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
34/36
Start
A 20 20 2
C 2
2 4
2 4
F 3
4 7
10 13
E 4
4 8
4 8
H 2
13 15
13 15
Finish
B 3
0 3
1 4
D 4
3 7
4 8
G 5
8 13
8 13
Figure 4. PT. ABCs LATEST START (LS) AND LATEST FINISH (LF) TIMES
3/10/2012 34
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
35/36
$30,000
$32,000
$34,000
normal
crashCrash cost / week:= (CC NC) : (NT CT)
= ($34,000 - $30,000) : (3-1)= $2,000 per week
Cash Cost
Normal cost
1 2 3
Crash time Normal time
Crash and Normal Time and Costs for Activity BActivitycost
Time (weeks)
3/10/2012 35
8/2/2019 Mnagement Project for Matriculation 2011
36/36
TQ& C U
3/10/2012 36