Mitigation in an energy constrained world - a workshop Martin Birley BirleyHIA .

Mitigation in an energy constrained world- a workshop

Martin BirleyBirleyHIA

www.BirleyHIA.co.uk

© BirleyHIA

2

Content

Climate changePeak oilImplications for HIA

– Attitude– Practice

Workshop

Quotations from climate experts

It’s nowIt’s usIt’s worse

Annual effect of climate change now

300,000 dead325 million seriously affected500 million at extreme risk4 billion people vulnerable

© BirleyHIA

4

Global Humanitarian Forum (2009) www.ghfgeneva.org

Climate change

Science <350ppmPolitics>450ppm

© BirleyHIA

5

Unacceptablerisk

Arctic sea icePositivefeedback

Energy scarcity

“The world’s energy system is at a crossroads.

Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently

unsustainable.”

International Energy Agency – World Energy Outlook, Nov 2008

Energy scarcity - Peak oil

© BirleyHIA

8

-10,000 years +10,000 years

200 years

Source: Colin Campbell, ASPO

Global oil discovery peak: 1965

Positive feedback

© BirleyHIA

10

Source: David Murphy – The Oil Drum. http://tinyurl.com/l5gpcb

Energy intensity

© BirleyHIA

12

Energy gap UK

BirleyHIA

13

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

0 20 40 60 80 100

Years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Emissions,Availability

Renewables

Policy/projectlifetime

Gap

Health impacts of CC and Peak Oil

Increased inequalityReduced life expectancyFailure of medical services

WarStarvationEconomic collapse

BirleyHIA

14

Amplify existing health risks and

inequalities

HIA implications

Oil addictionCarbon reduction

© BirleyHIA

15

Oil addiction

Knowledge

Attitudes and beliefs

Practice

BirleyHIA

16

Attitudes and beliefs

BirleyHIA

17

Denial

Despair

Magical Rescue

Transition

Emotions

Fear

Hope

Inaction

Health co-benefits of change

BirleyHIA

18

Mitigation examples

© BirleyHIA

19

Fossil-fuel basedNon fossil-fuel based

Diesel powered water management

Wind powered water management

Workshop questions

What are the probable emotional responses to the science?What attitudes and beliefs follow from the emotional responses?How will such attitudes and beliefs influence the practice of HIA?

© BirleyHIA

20

You may like to consider

Assumptions made in HIAs about trends in the availability of energy, climate change or emissionsAnalysis of health outcomes under different climate or energy regimesRecommendations for mitigation and enhancement of health impacts when constrained by energy/climate issuesOther approaches to carrying out the HIA itself that take account of cumulative effects/climate change/energy scarcity

© BirleyHIA

21

© BirleyHIA

22

END