Mississippi River Tri-Agency Meeting National Weather Service 1 COE/NWS/USGS COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency Meeting Tri-Agency Meeting Mississippi River Basin Mississippi River Basin AHPS UPDATE AHPS UPDATE Craig Hunter Craig Hunter Hydrologist-In-Charge Hydrologist-In-Charge NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center NOAA/NWS/Ohio River Forecast Center November 14-15, 2006 November 14-15, 2006
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Mississippi River Tri-Agency Meeting National Weather Service 1 COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency Meeting Mississippi River Basin AHPS UPDATE COE/NWS/USGS Tri-Agency.
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Mississippi River Tri-Agency Meeting National Weather Service
• OHRFC is running the MM5 model currently to 60-hours on a U.S. scale and 36-hours on the Ohio Valley scale
• OHRFC will be moving to a Linux cluster and expand the run to 5-7 days
• Will use a statistical approach to generate short-term probabilistic forecasts
• Will verify results
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Mesoscale modeling at OHRFCMesoscale modeling at OHRFC
24-hr MM5 rainfall 24-hr observed rainfall
MM5 probabilistic project also leading to benefits for 24-hour QPF deterministic forecasts. It is being used as input into OHRFC 24-hr operational QPF currently.
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Real-time Flood Innudation Real-time Flood Innudation Mapping Using HEC-RASMapping Using HEC-RAS
• Used FLDWAV for operational testing last 4 years
• Need a GUI to visualize/adjust forecasts
• 2 staff members sent to HEC for HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS training
• Agreement in principal with USGS and USACE Ohio River District to develop community HEC-RAS for unsteady flows on Ohio River for:
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PW
PE
RHImproving QPF with use of PEImproving QPF with use of PE
Improving QPF with use of PEImproving QPF with use of PE
PW Mean RH
Observed Rainfall
• PE = PW * Mean RH
• Looks at how efficient atmosphere is at raining out moisture
• More focused than many other current meteorological parameters on QPF placement
• Biggest challenges to QPF for hydrology: spatial placement of rainfall
• Improves over PW or RH alone
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PW
24-hr cumulative GFS PE
Improving QPF Forecasts 24-hr PE versus 24-hr cumulative GFS QPF. Oct 5,
2006 flood event.
Improving QPF Forecasts 24-hr PE versus 24-hr cumulative GFS QPF. Oct 5,
2006 flood event.
24-hr cumulative GFS QPF
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PW
24-hr cumulative GFS PE
PE Can Help Better Place Model QPF 24-hr cumulative PE provided better placement of QPF
maxima over GFS QPF placement.
PE Can Help Better Place Model QPF 24-hr cumulative PE provided better placement of QPF
maxima over GFS QPF placement.
24-hr observed rainfall
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SummarySummary
• Produce Probabilistic forecasts with the SAC-SMA model using ESP
• Existing products of the 90-Day Probability of exceedance forecasts can now be expanded to include products such as non-exceedance forecasts, Water Resources Outlooks and short-term probability forecasts.
• Other developmental works continues into short-term modeling and the use of HEC-RAS on the Ohio River.
• The goal of many of these products would better link multi-agency goals and further strengthen NWS/USGS/USACE partnerships.