Mismatches and matches in address information from the Census and the BSO: A longitudinal perspective 2001-2011 Ian Shuttleworth and Brian Foley, Queen’s University Belfast British Society for Population Studies annual conference 9 th September 2015, University of Leeds
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Mismatches and matches in address information from the Census and the BSO: A longitudinal perspective 2001-2011 Ian Shuttleworth and Brian Foley, Queen’s.
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Mismatches and matches in address information from the Census and the BSO: A longitudinal perspective 2001-2011
Ian Shuttleworth and Brian Foley, Queen’s University Belfast
British Society for Population Studies annual conference
9th September 2015, University of Leeds
Presentation format
• Context
• Data source, research approach and methods
• Backdrop of societal change in Northern Ireland (NI) during the 2000s
• Research questions
• Results
• Summary and conclusions
Context
• Shift in approach to future production of UK population statistics
• Greater use of administrative data sources enhance quality of statistical outputs from 2021 Census
• Post-2021; move away from traditional census-taking approach
• Health service registration data - fundamental role important to improve understanding of data quality
• How do the geography and rates of address mismatch in health card registration data in 2011 compare with the situation in 2001?
• What is the descriptive profile of address match/mismatch in 2011 and how does this compare with the situation in 2001?
• Has the association between address mismatch and relevant individual-, household- and area-level variables changed between 2001 and 2011?
• What is the transition in address match/mismatch status of NILS members between 2001 and 2011?
Transition in address match/mismatch status
279,899 40,287 890 321,076
87.2% 12.5% 0.3% 100.0%
75.2% 10.8% 0.2% 86.3%
30,612 12,284 207 43,103
71.0% 28.5% 0.5% 100.0%
8.2% 3.3% 0.1% 11.6%
4,817 763 2,239 7,819
61.6% 9.8% 28.6% 100.0%1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 2.1%
SOA mismatchSOA missing in health card regisration data
2011
Total
SOA match
SOA match
SOA mismatch
SOA missing in health card regisration data
2001
n = 371,998
Source: NILS
Summary of main findings
• Increase of circa 2% in the address mismatch rate in 2011
• Highest rates of address mismatch in urban areas in both years
• Descriptive profile of address match/mismatch very similar in 2011
compared to 2001
• High odds of address mismatch in 2011:male25 to 34 age groupmoved in the year before the censusaddress mismatch in 2001private rentersmore densely populated areas
Conclusions
• Despite demographic and socio-economic change in NI, address mismatch situation in 2011 similar to that in 2001
• Conservative estimate of address mismatch
• Implications for sub-national population estimates and other statistics they underlie, e.g. health and economic indicators
• Increasingly mobile population → difficult to reference individuals to a single address
Future analysis
• Further analysis of NILS members exhibiting address mismatch in both 2001 and 2011
• Use subsequent downloads of BSO data after April 2011 to investigate the lag in updating of address information in health card registration data to match that recorded in the 2011 Census
• Undertake the analysis using Unique Property Reference Number, which will provide an insight into mismatch at the individual address level
The help provided by the staff of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study and the NILS Research Support Unit is acknowledged. The NILS is funded by the Health and Social Care Research and Development Division of the Public Health Agency (HSC R&D Division) and NISRA. The NILS-RSU is funded by the ESRC and the Northern Ireland Government. The authors alone are responsible for the interpretation of the data and any views or opinions presented are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NISRA/NILS.