MINNI Project outcomes: downscalings for regional policy support ARIANET s.r.l. via Gilino, 9 – 20128 Milano (MI) – ITALY - tel. 02.27007255 – fax 02.25708084.

MINNI Project outcomes:downscalings for regional policy support

ARIANET s.r.l. via Gilino, 9 – 20128 Milano (MI) – ITALY - tel. 02.27007255 – fax 02.25708084 – http://www.aria-net.it

G. Calori

Italian-Polish workshop - Warsaw, 17 March 2006

“Framework” Directive on ambient air quality assessment and management (96/62/EC) and Daughter Directives

(1999/30/EC): limit values for SO2, NO2, NOx, PM, Pb(2000/69/EC): C6H6 and CO(2002/3/EC): O3

(2004/107/EC): heavy metals and PAHs

Air quality standards – LV and MOT

Assessment and management:

• current status• policy scenarios

Measurements + emission inventory + modelling

Air quality assessment: EU context

(on a yearly basis)

(“supplementary assesment methods”)

Italy: regional plans and programmes

Develop coherent evaluations, taking into account:

• local features (sources, topography & land-use, meteorology…)

• national (and international) context

Model-based + monitoring, to support the design of action plans

Regional air quality assessment

3D atmospheric modelling Integrated assessment modelling

AMS RAINS-Italy

(off-line)

(interactive)

regional downscalings

MINNI AMS & RAINS-Italy

• base-case reconstruction, nested into national-scale

• policy (regional / national / EU) detailed future emission scenario

• direct 3D simulation with CTM (chemical-transport model – same as MINNI AMS)

• comparison and scenario assessment

Steps:

Downscaling examples - aspects:

• emissions• meteorology• concentrations• scenarios

Regional downscalings: approach

multi-scale, non-linearities, pollutants inter-dependencies

Piemonte

Valle d’Aosta

Veneto

N Italy

x = 4 km x = 4 km

x = 4 km

x = 2 km

Regional downscalingsCurrent status

x = 20 km

National scale

Piemonte

Piemonte

Regional emission inventory (INEMAR)

“Line”

1401 arcs

8 activities (ton/year)

“Area”

1286 municipalities

81 activities

“Point”

107 plants, 735 stacks

67 activities

Piemonte

Emission inventories integration

ForeignEMEP

LombardiaINEMAR

National(APAT)

PiemonteINEMAR

Piemonte

Emissions: model input

TIMEMODULATION

Inventorydata

(munic.)

Modulation profiles(daily, weekly, yearly)

Hourly gridded & speciated

emissions

SPACEDISAGGREGATION

Highways

Residential

Deciduous

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

1 - Leggeri_Extraurbane

2 - Leggeri_Extraurbane

3 - Leggeri_Extraurbane

4 - Leggeri_Extraurbane

5 - Leggeri_Extraurbane

6 - Leggeri_Extraurbane

7 - Leggeri_Extraurbane

HOUR

DAY

NOM_PROFIL

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mese

NonIndComb

gg_0_150

gg_150_300

gg_300_500

gg_500_1000

gg_1000_2000

P rodInd

SmalBusi

DomActiv

Airtraf

Colture

VdA_auto_EA

VdA_comm_EA

Decid

Conif

ThP owP lants

TotElP owReq

Veicoli_VdA

Thematic data

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Monoterpeni

Isoprene

Olefine (A.R.)

Olefine (B.R.)

Aromatici (A.R.)

Aromatici (B.R.)

Alcani (A.R.)

Alcani (B.R.)

Etilene

Chetoni

Aldeidi superiori

Acetaldeide

Formaldeide

Latifoglie

Conifere

Auto

NMVOC SPECIATION& PM DIM. CLASSES

Speciation &dimensionalprofiles

Chemical boundary conditions

NO2, 18.1.1999 h 09

National--scale

simulation

Boundaryconditions

Regional scale simulation

Piemonte

Meteorology

Italy(RAMS)

Piemonte(MINERVE)

Wind Temperature

Piemonte

Monitoring network

• model verification• combined model-measurements AQ assessment

Piemonte

Comparison with monitoring dataYearly avg.

X

backg.

traffic

ENEL

Station type

SO2 NO2

O3 Benzene

Piemonte

Comparison with monitoring dataMonthly means & avg. days

Torino Lingotto

NO2 monthly means O3 monthly means

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

01020

3040506070

8090

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Computed Measured

Alpignano

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

O3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

NO

2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

O3

Biella (via don Sturzo)

05

10

1520253035

404550

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

oreO

3

O3 avg. summer day

Piemonte

Yearly assessmentMap of indicators: health

NO2

Yearly avg.Benzene

Yearly avg.Ozone

Avg. of 8hr daily max

Limit: 40 g m-3

350 400 450 500

U TM x [km ]

NO2 - m edia annuale

4900

4950

5000

5050

5100

5150

UT

M y

[km

]

0

10

20

30

40

50

Limit: 5 g m-3

350 400 450 500

U TM x [km ]

BENZENE - m edia annuale

4900

4950

5000

5050

5100

5150

UT

M y

[km

]

0

1

2

3

4

5

Limit: 120 g m-3, less than 25 days/year

Piemonte

Yearly assessmentMap of indicators: ecosystems

NOx

Yearly avg.SO2

Yearly avg.

Limit: 30 g m-3 Limit: 20 g m-3

350 400 450 500

U TM x [km ]

NOx - media annuale

4900

4950

5000

5050

5100

5150

UT

M y

[km

]

0

5

10

20

30

50

350 400 450 500

U TM x [km ]

SO2 - media annuale

4900

4950

5000

5050

5100

5150

UT

M y

[km

]

0

5

10

15

20

50

Piemonte

Future scenarios

A. vehicles fleet at year 2008

B. introduction of selective traffic ban zones (ZTL) for municipalities above 10000 inhabitants

C. building heating sector: implementation of rules on fuel use and boilers + growth/adaptation of buildings stock

Piemonte

Scenario: vehicles fleet at year 2008

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

0-1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-1

1

11-1

2

12-1

3

13-1

4

14-1

5

15-1

6

16-1

7

17-1

8

18-1

9

19-2

0

età (anni)

nu

mer

o v

eico

li

benzina

gasolio

TOTALE

Projection of vehicles fleet – Hypothesis:

• use of “age curves” for gasoline and diesel vehicles

• future sells (2004-2008): same gasoline/diesel partition (51% vs. 49%)

• Euro IV (COPERT III methodology)

2003 2008

AUTO % % 1 CC<1400 PRE ECE 2.13 1.10 2 CC<1400 ECE 00-01 1.51 0.78 3 CC<1400 ECE 02 1.10 0.57 4 CC<1400 ECE 03 1.14 0.59

5 CC<1400 ECE 04 13.16 6.80 6 CC<1400 IMPROVED CONVENTIONAL 0.00 0.00 7 CC<1400 OPEN LOOP 0.00 0.00 8 CC<1400 EURO I - 91/441/EEC 11.22 5.89 9 CC<1400 EURO II - 94/12/EEC 16.46 12.27

10 CC<1400 EURO III - 98/69/EC Stage 2000 10.30 14.62 11 CC<1400 EURO IV - 98/69/EC Stage 2005 0.00 9.13 12 1400<CC<2000 PRE ECE 0.32 0.17 13 1400<CC<2000 ECE 00-01 0.31 0.16 14 1400<CC<2000 ECE 02 0.30 0.16

15 1400<CC<2000 ECE 03 0.30 0.15 16 1400<CC<2000 ECE 04 3.97 2.05 17 1400<CC<2000 IMPROVED CONVENTIONAL 0.00 0.00 18 1400<CC<2000 OPEN LOOP 0.00 0.00 19 1400<CC<2000 EURO I - 91/441/EEC 4.97 2.61

20 1400<CC<2000 EURO II - 94/12/EEC 5.48 4.08 21 1400<CC<2000 EURO III - 98/69/EC Stage 2000 2.65 3.77 22 1400<CC<2000 EURO IV - 98/69/EC Stage 2005 0.00 2.35 23 CC>2000 PRE ECE 0.07 0.04 24 CC>2000 ECE 00-01 0.05 0.02

25 CC>2000 ECE 02 0.03 0.02 26 CC>2000 ECE 03 0.03 0.01 27 CC>2000 ECE 04 0.16 0.08 28 CC>2000 EURO I - 91/441/EEC 0.10 0.05 29 CC>2000 EURO II - 94/12/EEC 0.32 0.24

30 CC>2000 EURO III - 98/69/EC Stage 2000 0.32 0.46

. . . . .. . . . .

Example: gasoline cars > 1400 cm3 (COPERT classes)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2003 2008

EURO IV

EURO III

EURO II

EURO I

ECE 04

ECE 03

ECE 02

ECE 00-01

PRE ECE

Piemonte

Emissions scenario: vehicles fleet at year 2008

0

1 000 0

2 000 0

3 000 0

4 000 0

5 000 0

CO(x10) NOx NMVOC SO2 CH4 NH3 PM10

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0 .0

0 .1

0 .2

0 .3

0 .4

Emissions [t/y]

Variation respect to

2003

0

1 000 0

2 000 0

3 000 0

4 000 0

5 000 0

CO(x10) NOx NMVOC SO2 CH4 NH3 PM10

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0 .0

0 .1

0 .2

0 .3

0 .4

20 03

20 08

(2008 -20 03)/2003

Piemonte

Scenario: vehicles fleet at year 2008Results on concentrations - 1

NO2 yearly avg.

Relative var. Absolute var.

Base: year 2001

Piemonte

Scenario: vehicles fleet at year 2008Results on concentrations - 2

O3 hot season

Avg. of daily maxima: relative var. AOT40 for vegetation: relative var.

Base: year 2001

Veneto

Veneto

Yearly assessment

NO2

Yearly avg.O3

AOT40 vegetation

Limit: 40 g m-3 Limit: 18000 g m-3 h

Veneto

Future scenarios

A. vehicles fleet at year 2010

B. construction of Superstrada Pedemontana Veneta (SPV)

VENEZIAVENEZIAVENEZIAVENEZIAVENEZIAVENEZIAVENEZIAVENEZIAVENEZIA

BELLUNOBELLUNOBELLUNOBELLUNOBELLUNOBELLUNOBELLUNOBELLUNOBELLUNO

BOLZANOBOLZANOBOLZANOBOLZANOBOLZANOBOLZANOBOLZANOBOLZANOBOLZANO

FERRARAFERRARAFERRARAFERRARAFERRARAFERRARAFERRARAFERRARAFERRARA

MANTOVAMANTOVAMANTOVAMANTOVAMANTOVAMANTOVAMANTOVAMANTOVAMANTOVA

MODENAMODENAMODENAMODENAMODENAMODENAMODENAMODENAMODENA

PADOVAPADOVAPADOVAPADOVAPADOVAPADOVAPADOVAPADOVAPADOVA

PORDENONEPORDENONEPORDENONEPORDENONEPORDENONEPORDENONEPORDENONEPORDENONEPORDENONE

ROVIGOROVIGOROVIGOROVIGOROVIGOROVIGOROVIGOROVIGOROVIGO

TRENTOTRENTOTRENTOTRENTOTRENTOTRENTOTRENTOTRENTOTRENTO

TREVISOTREVISOTREVISOTREVISOTREVISOTREVISOTREVISOTREVISOTREVISO

VERONAVERONAVERONAVERONAVERONAVERONAVERONAVERONAVERONA

VICENZAVICENZAVICENZAVICENZAVICENZAVICENZAVICENZAVICENZAVICENZA

Vehicles fleet at 2010 Construction of SPV

NO2 yearly avg. – Absolute var.

- 1 5

- 1 4

- 1 3

- 1 2

- 1 1

- 1 0

- 9

- 8

- 7

- 6

- 5

- 4

- 3

- 2

- 1

u g / m 3

0 .05

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2

2.4

ug/m 3

Veneto

Future emissions scenariosResults on concentrations - 1

Vehicles fleet at 2010 Construction of SPV

O3: AOT40 – Relative var.

Veneto

Future emissions scenariosResults on concentrations - 2

-45

-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

%-3.5

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

%

Northern Italy

Northern Italy

Future scenarios

A. thermal power plants at year 2010

B. introduction of PM retrofit filters on off-road vehicles

C. -30% reduction of emissions from building heating sector

Processing from APAT 2000 national inventory data

Northern Italy

Base case emissions

Diffuse emissions (4 km) + thermal power plants Example of daily winter cycle - NO

Northern Italy

Thermal power plants at year 2010 - Emissions

Variations of NOx emissions

decrease

increase

newi

15000

75001500

kg/day

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

ANYCCCintCIP6COGCVEXCipEXCipRNCOGNCVNTGTGNCC

Media di caricotipo

Load curves by plant type

SO2 NOx PM10Base 540 184 20Year 2010 237 166 6

Variation (resp. to LPS total) -56% -10% -68%

Variazione (resp. to grand total) -33% -1% -5%

Diffuse N Italy 367 1706 253

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

SO2 NOX PM10 (*10)

Base 2010

Data from Ministry of Industry & Authority for Electricity and Gas

Isosurfaces at 10 and 20 ppb

Example: SO2

Northern Italy

Concentrations

27 54

Northern Italy

Power plants scenario: results on concentrations - 1

024681 01 21 41 61 82 02 22 42 62 83 03 23 43 6

u g / m 3

-0 .5

-0 .45

-0 .4

-0 .35

-0 .3

-0 .25

-0 .2

-0 .15

-0 .1

-0 .05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

ug/m 3

024681 01 21 41 61 82 02 22 42 62 83 03 23 43 6

u g / m 3

NO2 avg., winter

Basecase

Variations

ppb

ppb

Northern Italy

Power plants scenario: results on concentrations - 2

O3 avg. of daily max

Basecase

Variations

4 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

6 0

6 5

7 0

7 5

8 0

8 5

9 0

u g / m 3

-1 .5

-1

-0 .5

-0 .1

0

0.1

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

ug/m 3

4 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

6 0

6 5

7 0

7 5

8 0

8 5

9 0

u g / m 3ppb

-1 .5

-1

-0.5

-0.1

0

0.1

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

ug/m 3

Northern Italy

Power plants scenario: results on concentrations - 3

PM10 avg., winter

Basecase

Variations

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

u g / m 3

0

5

1 0

1 5

2 0

2 5

3 0

3 5

4 0

4 5

5 0

5 5

u g / m 3

-0 .8-0 .75-0 .7-0 .65-0 .6-0 .55-0 .5-0 .45-0 .4-0 .35-0 .3-0 .25-0 .2-0 .15-0 .1-0 .0500.050.10.15

ug/m 3

3D atmospheric modelling Integrated assessment modelling

AMS RAINS-Italy

(off-line)

(interactive)

regional scenarios

• future regional energy pathways

• regional control options

Regione Piemonte

Current work - 1

Regional scenarios with RAINS-Italy

Implementation of:

Use of RAINS-Italy to study regional scenarios, harmonized with national framework

• impacts on health & environment

• effectiveness

Analysis of:

Current work - 2

Direct 3D atmospheric modelling

• Whole Italy at 4 km (yearly)

• Different year (2003), at 20 and 4 km

• …other regions?