Minna Padi Aset Manajemen 1 PT Minna Padi Aset Manajemen April 2007 Minna Padi Aset Manajemen 2 Table of Contents Investing in Indonesia p. 3 Portfolio Strategies p. 19 Finance 22 Agriculture 46 Infrastructure 62 Energy 82 Consumption 90 Automotive 98 Heavy Equipment 102 Property 106 Transportation 114 MPAM Fund p. 118 Agreement Specimen p. 130 3 Minna Padi Aset Manajemen Investing in Indonesia Stable Economic Growth – GDP 2006 = 5.50% – GDP 1Q07 (YoY) = 5.6% – IDR appreciation = 8.2% YTD – Inflation 2006 (YTD) = 6.6% – Inflation 2007F = 6.5% Interest rate – SBI 1 mo = 9.0% (30 March 2007) - room for rate cut – Deposit rate declines faster than loan rate Easing Monetary Policy 4 Minna Padi Aset Manajemen more… Privatization Program – IPO PT Jasa Marga – Toll Road PT Indonesia Power – Electricity PT Wijaya Karya – Construction PT Bank Tabungan Negara – Bank PT Krakatau Steel – Steel – Strategic Bank Negara Indonesia Infrastructure project – Toll road – Power plant Earning growth – fastest in region
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
1
PT Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
April 2007
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
2
Table of Contents
Investing in Indonesia p. 3Portfolio Strategies p. 19
9.258.759.7512.757.78.31 –mo SBI at year end (%)9,0008,9009,0209,8309,2908,420USD/IDR at year end
7.16.56.617.116.45.1Inflation (%)
OTHERS
297.4295.01292.96277.69245.21230.2Nominal GDP (USD BN)7.06.55.55.66.54.1Real GDP growth (%)
GDP
2008 F2007 F2006200520042003
Source: Bank Indonesia, Central Bureau of statistics, F- MPAM
7
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Indonesian Market
Market P/E 2007 F -13.7xAttractive P/E
Upgrade rating –positive outlook
Source: F- MPAM
02468
1012141618
HSI STI KLCI PCOMP JCI SET
2007 F
2008 F
SETJCIPCOMPKLCISTIHSIP/E
8.913.012.613.715.416.22008 F9.613.714.415.218182007 F
ThailandIndonesiaPhilippineMalaysiaSingaporeHong Kong
8
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
more…Credit has been plentiful – Banking SectorLow inflationMacro stabilityMarket Cap: IDR 1.321 Trillion = USD 146 Billion per 30 March 2007First Quarter 2007 Capital Inflow USD 2.4 Billion (USD 362 million in equity)Consensus SBI 8.5% by mid year – demand for Banks and PropertyCommodities price recorded the strongest earning growth –mining & plantations
Investment Ranking : Scale 1-10 ( weighted) in scale - 10 = top priority, 9 = priority, etc
Scale 1-10 ( weighted) in stocks pick – concerns on market cap & liquidity
20
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Equity Rating Key
Recommendation FundamentalTarget Fair Value for 12 months view• BUY : return > 15%• Outperform (OP) ; return 0% – 15%• Under perform (UP) : return (10%) – 0%• SELL : return < (10%)• Discount > 40% from fair value, we highly recommend BUY – fundamental remain unchanged• Bullish Market maximal price 1.1 x Fair Value
Recommendation Technical• Tactical Trading
• Return is calculated when recommend has changed ( + / - )
• Recommendation can be changed anytime depend on the pattern
Up trend Pattern : Ascending Triangle, Flag, Double or Triple bottom, Inverted Shoulder Head Shoulder, Wedge
Downtrend Pattern : Descending Triangle, Double or Triple Top, Shoulder Head Shoulder
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
6
21
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
News
• Indonesian Central Bank (BI) make a new regulations for banks — Old rule : clients who has a bad credit in one bank will
get the same treatment in other banks even they do not have a bad credit in other banks
— New rule : clients will get an individuals treatment in each banks depend on the conditions
– Positive : lower NPL on Banks with LDR > 70%
• Banks must be maintained their NPL < 5 % in 2007
22
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank BRI – BBRI
As of 30 March 2007
23
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
32.6
27.61
Disc. (%) to
FV
5,050
5,250
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
6,700
6,700
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Focusing on micro
• Strong loan growth expected at 19.5% growth in 2007
• Plan to lend to the toll road and agribusiness sectors
• Concern on single presence policy ( Government Own 57.37%) with
BMRI
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
24
5,05015,247
157,458136,73620,722
7,0115,01110.641429.72.7
11.218018.24.778
61,458
2007 F
(1.94)13.531.76
(0.80)22.7721.2117.71(0.46)15.320.33
(27.02)(17.03)
0.55(7.61)(3.29)
7.54(1.77)
70.247.91
26.0225.9726.408.88
11.79(9.66)13.96(0.67)
(15.90)(12.33)
13.2923.004.20
(5.80)89.43
5,15013,429
154,725137,84616,878
5,7844,25710.65
35929.63.7
13.5179
18.824.9
72.5362,570
3,02512,437
122,775109,42213,352
5,3123,80811.79
31529.84.4
15.415815.34.7
77.533,030
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 6,700
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
7
25
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
PRICE MOVEMENT: INSIDE CHANNEL SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TREND. POSSIBLE REVERSE TREND FROM DOWNTREND TO UP TREND BREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE. TARGET 5,500
BREAK FROM CHANNEL RESITANCE: STABLE 5,600 NEXT TARGET 6,200
Remark
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
5,050
5,250
Price
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
(3.80)
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
26
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank BCA - BBCA
As of 30 March 2007
27
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
27.45
26.21
Disc. (%) to
FV
5,100
5,150
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
6,500
6,500
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
SME42%
Corporate41%
Housing8%
Credit Card5%
Etc.4%
Loan Breakdown• BCA plans to move aggressively on
mortgage loan product in 2007 offering a low rate–
mortgage is a low credit risk and the yield is over SBIs
• More room for credit expansion – LDR >40%
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
28
5,15022,875
197,406175,67721,72910,873
5,2536.4382
26.212.7
10.218020.81.5
45.162,876
2007 F
(0.96)18.0511.6510.6720.2614.6523.80
(13.51)10.72(9.83)
(23.07)(16.73)
9.09(5.83)
(11.76)11.91(0.96)
52.9425.8417.7218.1614.0123.9117.9312.1218.153.26
33.9628.9417.85
2.6(10.52)(3.54)53.04
5,20019,376
176,799158,73018,067
9,4834,243
7.4345
29.073.51
12.25165
22.091.7
40.3063,491
3,40015,397
150,181134,33215,847
7,6533,597
6.6292
28.162.629.5140
21.531.9
41.7841,485
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 6,500
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
PRICE MOVEMENT: INSIDE CHANNEL. NO 3 SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TRENDBREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE NO 3. TARGET 5,450
UP TREND, BREAK CHANNEL RESITANCE 1. TARGET 5,500
Remark
5,150 – 5,250
5,200 – 5,300
Resistance
4,900 – 5,000
4,950 – 5,050
Support
5,100
5,150
Price
CHANNEL
CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
(0.97)
Return
(%)
30-Mar--07
26-Jan-07
Date
30
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank Niaga – BNGA
As of 30 March 2007
31
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
47.29
22.47
Disc. (%) to
FV
740
890
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
1,090
1,090
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Strong loan growth expected 24% in 2007
• Focusing on mortgage
• Concern on single presence policy with Lippo Bank
SME42%
Housing12%
Corporate26%
Consumer15%
Credit Card5%
Loan Breakdown
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
32
7407,015
49,15044,240
4,9101.192
8286.15
7133.78
2.311.2
1215
3.391.8
8,880
2007 F
(19.56)17.245.595.952.5615.9
27.77(0.80)31.48
103.866.48
(34.19)103.38(9.90)31.47
8.2(14.11)
127.1645.2911.9311.0120.7041.4018.4614.81
(10)(21.35)
92.85252.74(35.65)(3.42)
(41.49)(0.66)
132.59
9206,014
46,54441,752
4,7871,028
6486.254
16.572.16
17.025.9
16.652.51
84.7810,339
4054,124
41,58037,610
3,9667275475.460
21.071.126.749.17
17.244.29
85.354,445
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 1,090
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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33
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
CONSOLIDATION 730 –800BREAK FROM DOWNTREND LINEPOSSIBLE REVERSE TREND FROM SIDE WAYS TO UP TRENDBREAK 800: TARGET 850
BREAK PATTERN: TARGET 730
Remark
(I) 790 – 810(II) CHANNEL
RESISITANCE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
730 - 750
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
740
800
890
Price
CHANNEL
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
SELL
HOLD
Rec.
7.50
(10.11)
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
23-Feb-07
26-Jan-07
Date
34
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank Danamon – BDMN
As of 30 March 2007
35
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
19.08
18.03
Disc. (%) to
FV
6,550
6,100
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
7,800
7,200
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
Loan Breakdown
SME46%
Corporate15%
Motorcycle21%
Cars9%
Housing3%
Credit Cards6%
- Focusing in SME and automotive segments (ADIRA)
- Concern on Single Presence Policy (with BNII)
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
36
6,5508,150
87,05076,29710,753
2,8451,910
9.3383
192.7
17.10215
193.8
84.532,579
2007 F
(2.96)(58.69)
6.065.4
13.8815.0844.155.44
42.386.3
(22.85)(8.55)79.16
(13.63)15.1511.90(1.40)
42.1041.9221.0422.599.93
(22.45)(33.84)(1.45)
(34.06)230.74
29.6266.96
(40.88)(4.34)26.92(8.80)42.79
6,75012,93482,07372,386
9,4422,4721,3258.82269
17.863.5
18.7120
223.3
75.5133,042
4,7509,113
67,80359,043
8,5893,1882,0038.954085.42.7
11.2203
232.6
82.823,140
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 7,800
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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37
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
TARGET 7,300
UP TREND
LONG TREM: TRIPLE BOTTOM
SHORT TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOM
BUY6,55030-Mar-07
TARGET 7,300
BREAK 6,100: TARGET 6,700
(NOTE: ACHIEVED 23-MAR-07). UP TREND
TARGET 7,300
RemarkResistance
5,450 -5,850
Support
6,050
6,100
Price
LONG TREM: TRIPLE BOTTOM
SHORT TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOM
TRIPLE BOTTOM
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
8.26
(0.82)
Return
(%)
20-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
38
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank Permata – BNLI
As of 30 March 2007
39
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
33.33
37.93
Disc. (%) to
FV
900
870
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
1,200
1,200
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Benefit from lower interest rate
• ASII and Standard Chartered Bank own BNLI
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
40
9006,125
41,68036,544
5,136655365
788.29.342.0
17.2016
15.54.1
84.56,970
2007 F
3.4419.0910.137.39
36.5225.7117.3616.66120.513.0712.99
(20.48)
14.8124.241.684.51
20.8336.748.80
15.1646.2630.575.429.095.26
(27.98)(17.67)
18.91
37.7526.925.85
20.83
8705,143
37,84534,030
3,762521311
640
8.261.77
21.63-
13.53.3
83.106,669
7203,761
34,78232,155
2,5723992955.538
11.472.15
18.19-
9.82.6
78.505,519
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 1,200
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
11
41
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
SHORT TERM: SIDEWAYSPRICE DIRECTION: IF BREAK CHANNEL LINE
BREAK NECKLINE TARGET 1,070SORT TERM: SIDEWAYS
Remark
900 - 910
900 - 910
Resistance
840 - 850
840 - 850
Support
900
870
Price
CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
3.44
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
42
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Finance : Bank Mandiri – BMRI
As of 30 March 2007
43
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
40.00
32.07
Disc. (%) to
FV
2,500
2,650
Price
upgrade on restructure
Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
4,100
3,500
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Asset recovery/ restructure
• Potential low NPL – 2007 NPL < 5%
• Low Valuation – upgrade
• Forecasting change – better NPL
Corporate49%
Commercial30%
Small7%
Micro2%
Consumer12%
Loan Breakdown
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
44
2,50037,082
277,915251,57426,340
5,2503,6505.8618415.82.7
12.787.4
239.9
59.851,580
2007 F
(13.79)27.893.884.31
-93.6550.7630.2254.6261.22
20(47.84)
46.89(6.5)
(42.03)8.6
(12.90)
76.8222.971.560.41
13.46128.19301.49
15.38296.66255.07
58.45(55.60)300.59
6.07(35.74)
10.1080.16
2,90028,994
267,517241,17126,341
2,7112,421
4.51199.8
2.2524.3559.5
24.6217.0855.02
59,221
1,64023,578
263,383240,16423,215
1,1886033.930
2.761.42
54.8514.8523.2126.5849.97
32,871
Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 4,100
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
12
45
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
BREAK NECKLINE 2,850 SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TREND. POSSIBLE REVERSE TREND
BREAK DOWNTREND CHANNEL: TARGET 2,750
TARGET 2,375, ACHIEVED
BREAK 2,650 FILTER 1 % (2,600 – 2,575) TARGET 2,375BUY: BREAK 2,650 – 2,700 WITH HEAVY VOL
Remark
NECKLINE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
2,500
2,550
2,425
2,650
Price
INVERTSHOULDER HEAD SHOULDER
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
Rec.
(1,96)
5.15
8.49
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
9-Mar-07
9-Feb-07
26-Jan-07
Date
46
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Agriculture : Astra Agro Lestari – AALI
As of 30 March 2007
47
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
27.77
24.32
Disc. (%) to
FV
12,600
12,950
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
16,100
16,100
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• CPO prices continue to strength
• Demand for CPO also strength (Demand > Supply)
• The cheapest production cost / ton in the industries
USD 184
CPO80%
Palm Kernel8%
Derivatives10%
Non CPO2%
Revenue
6.408.409.50EV/ EBITDA (X)
10.4512.6116.67 P/ E (X)
USD 206 USD 184 USD 276 Production Cost / ton
UNSPAALILSIP07 F
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
48
12,6005,8004,176
4763,7002,3581,57327.12
99942.525.36
12.61265
2,3508.40
19,834
2007 F
054.3419.42
(36.36)34.5996.6699.8929.5299.8948.52
(25.70)(49.97)180.42)
34.59(32.80)
0
157.1411.489.56
31.464.80
0(0.38)
(10.64)(0.38)(4.95)
145.36158.12(70.91)
4.80(12.59)157.15
12,6003,7583,497
7482,7491,199
78720.94
50028.637.22
25.2195
1,74612.50
19,843
4,9003,3713,192
5692,6231,199
79023.44
50230.122.949.77325
1,66614.307,713
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
BuyFair Value IDR 12,600
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
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49
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
PRICE MOVEMENT: INSIDE CHANNEL. SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TREND. POSSIBLE BREAK RESISTANCE. TARGET 14,050
BREAK UP TREND SUPPORT (SINCE OCT 06)
UP TRENDBREAK TRIANGLE: TARGET I - 15,700BREAK 15,700 - TARGET II
Remark
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
12,800 –13,300
Support
12,600
13,250
12,950
Price
DOWNTREND CHANNEL
TRIANGLE
Pattern
BUY
SELL
BUY
Rec.
4.90
2.31
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Feb-07
26-Jan-07
Date
50
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Agriculture : London Sumatera – LSIP
As of 30 March 2007
51
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
6.408.409.50EV/ EBITDA (X)
10.4512.6116.67 P/ E (X)
USD 206 USD 184 USD 276 Production Cost / ton
UNSPAALILSIP07 F
16.13
17.39
Disc. (%) to
FV
6,200
5,750
Price Remarks
OP
BUY
Rec.
7,200
6,750
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Selling palm products to domestic markets (83% of sales)
• Compare industries – LSIP the highest production cost per ton
Revenue Break down :
• Palm 70%
• Rubber 21%
• Seeds 5%
• Others 4%
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
52
OPFair Value IDR 7,200
6,2002,6753,5671,7651,802
705480
17.94372
26.644.70
16.6761
1,64312.706,790
2007 F
(6.06)24.5319.507.69
33.8854.9558.4227.2166.8218.33
(29.78)(43.69)
1.6766.63
(30.98)(6.06)
505.5017.1814.7210.9719.462.48
(14.89)(27.37)(14.56)(28.86)406.02608.68
019.66(4.66)
123.72
6,6002,1482,9851,6391,346
455303
14.11223
22.516.69
29.6060
98618.407,229
1,0901,8332,6021,4771,125
444356
19.42261
31.641.324.18
0824
19.303,231
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
14
53
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
LONG TERM: UP TRENDSIGNAL BUY: BREAK RESISTANCE WEDGE
LONG TERM: UP TRENDBREAK NECKLINE: TARGET 5,400
Remark
RESISTANCEWEDGE
Resistance
SUPPORTWEDGE
NECKLINE
Support
6,200
5,750
Price
WEDGE
SHOULDER HEAD SHOULDER
Pattern
HOLD
HOLD
Rec.
7.82
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
54
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Agriculture : Bakrie Sumatera Plan. – UNSP
As of 30 March 2007
55
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
30.43
32.32
Disc. (%) to
FV
1,150
990
Price
Upgrade concern of CPO & rubber price
demand > supply
Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
1,500
1,310
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• CPO and rubber price continuous strength
• The Lowest PBV and PE in the industry
6.408.409.50EV/ EBITDA (X)
10.4512.6116.67 P/ E (X)
USD 206 USD 184 USD 276 Production Cost / ton
UNSPAALILSIP07 F
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
56
BuyFair Value IDR 1,500
1,1501,1421,570
540900675256
22.46110
28.492.90
10.4519
3866.40
2,681
2007 F
18.5614.4813.77
(16.92)23.2965.0031.5714.9331.576.72
(6.37)(9.89)18.7523.32
(34.02)18.56
133.7312.9310.84
(13.79)48.6879.4968.0048.7768.0013.0057.2139.13
049.04
(22.40)133.82
970997
1,380650730409195
19.5484
26.703.10
11.6016
3139.70
2,261
415883
1,245754491228116
13.1450
23.631.978.34
0210
12.50967
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
15
57
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
TARGET DOUBLE BOTTOM: 1,350
Remark
NECKLINECHANNEL RESISTANCE
CHANNEL RESISTANCE
Resistance
CHANNEL SUPPORT
CHANNEL SUPPORT
Support
1,150
990
Price
LONG TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOMUP TREND CHANNEL
UP TREND CHANNEL
Pattern
BUY
BUY
Rec.
16.16
Return
(%)
30-Mar-07
26-Jan-07
Date
58
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Agriculture : Tunas Baru Lampung – TBLA
As of 30 March 2007
59
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Fundamental
30.15
38.98
Disc. (%) to
FV
315
295
Price Remarks
BUY
BUY
Rec.
410
410
Target
Fair Value
30 March 07
26 Jan 07
Date
• Concern on small cap and liquidity
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
60
BuyFair Value IDR 315
3151,3552,2151,270
945155
715.24
177.511.37
18.535
2293.20
1,299
2007 F
31.2513.488.107.179.38
14.8133,9618.04
(10.53)22.4820.0046.6925.009.56
(52.24)31.25
20.00(2.21)41.2126.2068.7513.45
783.33803.31375.00423.46(28.89)(74.74)406.33
68.54(31.63)
20.00
2401,1942,049
1,1185864135
534.44
196.131.15
12.634
2096.70990
2001,2211,451
939512119
60.49
41.171,61
500.791249.80825
Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)
Change(%)
Change(%)
2006 A(Dec)
2005 A(Dec)
Key Income Statement Data
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
16
61
Minna Padi Aset Manajemen
Recommendation Technical
SIDEWAYS
BREAK UP TREND CHANNEL: TARGET 280
CRUCIAL PRICE: 305 – 310. IF BREAK 310 BREAK WITH VOL. TARGET 380