Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego 1 Ex post evaluation of the National Development Plan first results Stanislaw Bienias National Evaluation Unit Department.

Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego 1

Ex post evaluation of the National Development Plan

first results

Stanislaw Bienias

National Evaluation UnitDepartment of Structural Policy Coordination

Ministary of Regional DevelopmentPOLAND


The NDP 2004-2006 ex-post evaluation

Evaluation studies accomplished or in the last stage of implementation: Evaluation studies accomplished or in the last stage of implementation:

1.1. Macro economic impact of cohesion policy (on national and regional level)Macro economic impact of cohesion policy (on national and regional level)

2. Evaluation of the benefits drawn by EU-15 countries as a result of cohesion policy implementation in Poland – update 2010

3. Sectoral analysis of expenditures within NDP 2004-2006 and their impact on sectoral changes of Polish economy (demand -side analysis)

4.4. The mechanisms of The mechanisms of startegicstartegic management on the regional level management on the regional level (IROP case) (IROP case)

5.5. The impact of cohesion policy on the level and quality of employmentThe impact of cohesion policy on the level and quality of employment in Poland

6. An ex-post assesment of the impact of cohesion policy 2004-2006 on increasing abilities of social and economical development of eastern Poland regions

7. Complementarity and synergy of interventions implemented from ESF and ERDF funds in perspective 2004-2006.

8. Transport accesability impact assesment

9. The impact of environmental investments financed within NDP 2004-2006

10. The effects of transborder cooperation of the regions


Evaluation studies in progress: Evaluation studies in progress:

11. Evaluation of the cohesion policy implementation system in Poland in 2004-2006 period (October 2010)

12. Impact of cohesion policy support on competiveness and innovativeness of Polish enterprises and economy (October 2010)

13. Cohesion policy impact evaluation of transport projects on improvement of the competitiveness of regions(October 2010)

14. Impact of cohesion policy on the development of Polish cities (October 2010)

15. Evaluation of ESF interventions’ impact on the increase of human resources quality (November 2010)

9-10th December 2010 – the VIth Evaluation Conference – presentation of 9-10th December 2010 – the VIth Evaluation Conference – presentation of NDP NDP ex post synthesis reportex post synthesis report

The NDP 2004-2006 ex-post evaluation


Impact on GDP growth in p.p.Impact on GDP growth in p.p.

Source: Results of evaluation studies entitled Impact of implementing cohesion policy on shaping main indicators of strategic documents – National Development Plan 2004-2006 and National Cohesion Strategy 2007-2013 and other selected macro-economic indicators at the national level implemented by the Institute for Structural Research (model EUImpactMod) the Gdańsk Institute for Market Economics and Prevision (model MaMor3) and Wrocław Regional Development Agency (model HERMIN).

•On average, during the whole simulation period, the GDP growth dynamics increased by 0.5-0.7 pp as a result of the inflow of the fund.•Though in 2009 the impact of EU support on economic growth became more visible than previously, it will be the strongest in the period 2012-2014•About 50% of the positive GDP growth in 2009 in Poland as a result of the inflow of the structural funds


Sectoral analysis of expenditures within NDP

A newly generated demand by CP constituted 2% of global production2% of global production between 2004 and 2008, and 9% in case of construction sector.

A demand generated by project implementation resulted in 29% increase in construction production,29% increase in construction production,

15% increase of processing industry15% increase of processing industry and between 4 and 8% increase in the volume of production in other branches..

A newly generated demand was slightly more significant in case of innovative branches and constituted up to 2,6% of their global value between2,6% of their global value between 2004 and 2008. This rate occurred to be higher in less developed regions, what may be a signal of NDP influence on modernization of these voivodships.

The greatest impact on innovation demand has been due to SOP ICE contributionThe greatest impact on innovation demand has been due to SOP ICE contribution; the second important fund was the Cohesion Fund due to the amount of allocated money.

The implemented projects have significantly influenced the economic growth in 2004-2008 2004-2008

A newly generated demand has triggered employment and labour costs increase, especially in construction

Source: Sectoral analysis of expenditures within NDP 2004-2006 and their impact on sectoral changes of Polish economy (demand -side analysis), (the evaluation study commissioned by MRD and implemented by Instytut Badań Strukturalnych)


Evaluation ofEvaluation of Cohesion Policy Impact in PolandCohesion Policy Impact in PolandEvaluation ofEvaluation of Cohesion Policy Impact in PolandCohesion Policy Impact in Poland

Germany - the biggest trade partner for Poland - occurred to be the most significant benefactor of implementing cohesion policy in our country – (around 16 bln euro additional export to Poland)

Source: Assessment of the benefits drawn by EU-15 countries as a result of cohesion policy implementation in Poland UPDATE 2010– evaluation organised by the MRD implemented by the Institute for Structural Research (2010)

Evaluation research indicates that the EU-15 countries (the net contributors to structural funds) also benefit from the cohesion policy’s implementation in Poland


Evaluation ofEvaluation of Cohesion Policy Impact in PolandCohesion Policy Impact in PolandEvaluation ofEvaluation of Cohesion Policy Impact in PolandCohesion Policy Impact in Poland

For each euro,For each euro, spent on cohesion policy implementation in Poland, EU-15 countries recollected 4646 centscents in average in average (net category taking into account structural funds payments) - the German economy is going to recollect 85 eurocents. Therefore, the real burden for the net payers’ economies is substantially lower than one could presume on the basis of the common budgetary flows alone.

Furthermore the EU cohesion policy contributes to the stabilization of EU economies – its effects are virtually immune to the occurrence and depth of economic crises and due to the highly innovative structure of additional export – modernize the EU economy.

Typical win-win situation

Percentage share of the increased export (as a result of cohesion policy implementation in Poland) in relevance to member states’ payments for the cohesion policy in our country (in net categories)


• Interreg IIIA achievements in Poland are comparable to the attainments of other Interreg programmes in Europe. Taking into account that they were implemented in 3 years shorter time than the others, it can be assumed that they were implemented more efficiently.

• The expenditure on Interreg IIIA programmes in Poland were not high enough to talk about a visible impact of the programme on main development indicators. The same opinion can be ascribed to transborder cooperation programmes in the whole EU.

• Investment projects had the highest impact on diminishing peripherity and increasing the quality of life on border areas. However they don’t generate a direct transborder effect.

• Soft projects occurred to have a significant impact on reduction of barriers in socio-cultural integration of the societies on both sides of the border (an increase in knowledge on societies and areas abroad, increase of common trust, combating prejudice, knowledgedge of the language).

• Micro projects have significantly affected the creation of permanent structures and cooperation habits through encouraging partnership of institutions and organizations in common projects implementation.

INTERREG III A Programmes in Poland - EFFECTSINTERREG III A Programmes in Poland - EFFECTS


• Transborder programmes should concentrate their assets on selected priority areas, which could significantly contribute to achieving a transborder effect. European Commission guidelines in this subject are a must.

• It is required to territorially concentrate the assets by limiting the area of eligibility of investment projects (to one district only).

• The promotion of transborder cooperation programme should be aimed at creating a positive image of the programme, which supports international cooperation on the partnership basis. The concept of partnership and transborder aspect should be presented as an added value of the projects and not the additional conditions to receive a grant.

INTERREG III A Programmes in Poland - recommendationsINTERREG III A Programmes in Poland - recommendations


Investments, which are dedicated to environment protection directly or indirectly, amount to 3937 projects (4,7% of all projects within NDP) reaching 16,9 bln PLN (about 30% of the whole support in the 2004-2006 period)

Most of the resources were directed to water waste treatment projects.

The effects of environmental investments financed within NDP 2004-2006The effects of environmental investments financed within NDP 2004-2006


• Construction or modernization of nearly 13000 km of sewage system, accessible for 1,4 mln. users; construction, build-up or modernisation of 275 municipal sewage treatment plants, 101 industrial sewage treatment and pretreatment plants and 1729 household sewage treatment plants;

• Construction or build-up of 12 waste management establishments; development of 8 individual systems of waste sorting in municipalities;

• Construction or modernization of 89 installations reducing gas and dust emission into atmosphere, which would reduce SO2 emission by 47 000 tons, NOx emission by 3 300 tons, as well as it would enable the reduction of dust pollution by 9000 tons per year;

• Construction of 25 km as well as modernization of 173 km heating systems, construction of 16 wind- power plants, 6 hydraulic plants, 14 systems enabling combustion or co-combustion of a biomass in power plants and in thermal-electric power stations as well as installation of 180 solar collector systems.

Projects accomplished resulted in:

• Creation of at least 2 500 Workplaces to service the infrastructure, which was bought or built (mainly waste management establishments, waste recycling and a biomass transformation installations, as well as construction of sewage treatment plants);

• App. 7 000 ha of new grounds designed for investments in more than 200 municipalities were provided with water and sewer infrastructure (appr. 1500 new enterprises, employing 5 000 -6 000 people, commenced to run a business);

• As a result of accoplishment of water and sewer projects, nearly 18 000. ha of grounds designed for residential buildings were made accessible in 400 municipalities (management of land neighbouring to large cities reach the level of 80-100%).

Socio-economic results of environmental investmentsSocio-economic results of environmental investments


1314 projects (1,6% of all NDP project) were assigned to the group of measures, that indirectly contribute to reduction of green-house gases emission or concern the adjustment to climate change. The cumulative

amount of those projects reached 7,3 bln PLN (which means 7,5% of total NDP assistance.Distribution of ressources Quantitative share of projects

•Reduction of CO2, assessed for key enterprises implemented in the framework of SOP IC and IOPRD, reaches appr. 560 thou. mg of CO2 per year, which gives 0,17% of total annual reduction of CO2 emission in Poland.•However, the role of enterprises connected to climate preservation, which were not granted in the framework of NDP 2004-2006, cannot be marginalized. Many of them, in particular those concerning renewable sources of energy (as e.g. 16 wind power stations and 6 hydraulic plants), enjoy a demonstrative and popularizing character.

The impact of NDP 2004-2006 on implementation of climat policy principles

The impact of NDP 2004-2006 on implementation of climat policy principles


Transport accessibility of Poland and Polish regions – macro model resultsTransport accessibility of Poland and Polish regions – macro model results

NDP effects: Transport and Social Infrastructure:

Length of build/reconstructed roads in km – 4704

Length of build/reconstructed highways in km – 282

Length of build/reconstructed railway lines in km - 636

Effects in accessibility were brought about

mostly by the big road-transport projects

Change in transport aaesabilty due to NDP implementation (%)


Complementarity and synergy of interventions Complementarity and synergy of interventions Implemented from ESF and ERDF funds 2004-2006Implemented from ESF and ERDF funds 2004-2006

Terminology of complementarity and synergy Terminology of complementarity and synergy were not defined, and they are difficultwere not defined, and they are difficult for the most of for the most of beneficiaries. (55% of respondents were able to define complementarity correctly, but only 19% could define beneficiaries. (55% of respondents were able to define complementarity correctly, but only 19% could define correctly concept of synergy.) There is no document explaining issues of complementarity and synergy effects.correctly concept of synergy.) There is no document explaining issues of complementarity and synergy effects.

This situation is similar in the groups of EU funds implementing workers – the respondents of the surveys also This situation is similar in the groups of EU funds implementing workers – the respondents of the surveys also had problems with definitions of complementarity and synergy.had problems with definitions of complementarity and synergy.

Providing complementarity of interventions within the ESF and the ERDF in 2004 – 2006 could meet the criteria Providing complementarity of interventions within the ESF and the ERDF in 2004 – 2006 could meet the criteria of of sham activitiessham activities, in accordance with the concept developed by Jan Lutyński (polish sociologist). By , in accordance with the concept developed by Jan Lutyński (polish sociologist). By sham sham activitiesactivities, Lutyński understands undertakings that meet the six following conditions simultaneously: they are , Lutyński understands undertakings that meet the six following conditions simultaneously: they are officially considered vital for the fulfilment (not necessarily unassisted) of a socially important objective, they officially considered vital for the fulfilment (not necessarily unassisted) of a socially important objective, they actually do not fulfil this objective, their uselessness in known to everybody or to almost everybody in the actually do not fulfil this objective, their uselessness in known to everybody or to almost everybody in the given community/social system, it is private knowledge; it is not publicly, and in the first place officially, given community/social system, it is private knowledge; it is not publicly, and in the first place officially, revealed, the main (but not always the only one) reason for their existence is the vital role in the revealed, the main (but not always the only one) reason for their existence is the vital role in the implementation of the objective that has been assigned to them; so their actual role is their very existence, implementation of the objective that has been assigned to them; so their actual role is their very existence, they contain an element of fiction related to their course or objective.they contain an element of fiction related to their course or objective.

From the sample of 1000 projects From the sample of 1000 projects only less than 100 were identified as complementalonly less than 100 were identified as complemental..

Projects declared as complementaProjects declared as complementarr statistically more often achieved better resultsstatistically more often achieved better results and planned indicator and planned indicator values. (15% more projects than non-complemental)values. (15% more projects than non-complemental)

This is an important argument to reinforce mechanisms of supporting complementarity and synergyThis is an important argument to reinforce mechanisms of supporting complementarity and synergy (integrated approach)(integrated approach)


Initial strategic conclusions and recommendations

In the process of programming and implementation of Cohesion Policy In the process of programming and implementation of Cohesion Policy the potential impact of funds on the economy - through the structure of the potential impact of funds on the economy - through the structure of additional demand created (not only through impact on supply side - as additional demand created (not only through impact on supply side - as it is right now) - should be taken into account. it is right now) - should be taken into account.

Due to proofed stabilizing role of cohesion policy, economic cycle should taken into consideration while programming the intervention (but not at the expense of keeping structural character of cohesion policy)

Evaluation research outcomes give evidence that both concentration and complementarity of interventions (focused, integrated approach) improves the efficiency and effectiveness of cohesion policy.

Cohesion policy is not only profitable for the beneficiary countries but brings about significant positive economic effects to the net-payers.


Thank you!

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Ministerstwo Rozwoju Regionalnego 1 Ex post evaluation of the National Development Plan first results Stanislaw Bienias National Evaluation Unit Department.

Documents

greatest impact

evaluation research

post evaluation slide

cohesion fund

evaluation study

impact of eu support

ex post evaluation

national cohesion strategy