Mining the Untapped Resources of the Intranet and Internet Invited Keynote to The DCI Summit on Peer-to-Peer Computing Downtown Marriott, San Francisco.

Mining the Untapped Resources of the Intranet and Internet

Invited Keynote to

The DCI Summit on Peer-to-Peer Computing

Downtown Marriott, San Francisco

March 16, 2001

Dr. Larry Smarr

Director, California Institute for

Telecommunications and Information Technology

www.calit2.net

Univ. of California San Diego

and Head of the Scientific Advisory Board,

Entropia, Inc.

The Future Will Not Resemble the Past

The emergence of Peer-to-Peer computing signifies a revolution in connectivity

that will be as profound to the Internet of future

as Mosaic was to the Web of the past.”--Patrick Gelsinger, VP and CTO, Intel Corp.

A Vacuum Must Be Filled…

• Most PCs Have a Few Percent Utilization– Both Processors and Storage– This Would Be Unacceptable for Any Other Capital Item

• Today’s PC--Faster than a 1990 Cray Supercomputer!• What Has Been Missing is:

– The Software to Capture the Cycles– Enterprise ROI on Capital Argument– Ethernet Speed to Connect PCs at Home– A Relatively Homogeneous Software/Hardware PC– A “Success Story” of Internet Computing

• All These Barriers Have Been Eliminated!

Entropia’s Business Vision

• Delivery Models– Enterprise Solutions– Internet P2P Solutions

• Enterprise Solutions – Financial Services– Biological Sciences– Product Design– Software Test– Oil & Gas– Resource Planning

• Internet Solutions Grid--Vertical Markets Focus– Life Sciences / Bioinformatics– Web Testing– Digital Media / Post Production

• Headquartered in San Diego– 70+ employees

• Privately held– $30M in financing– Series A and B Completed

• Has First Revenue– Multiple Customers

Enterprise, PC Clusters, and Internet Computing

Forbes 11.27.00

• UW Pool ~ 800 Workstations www.cs.wisc.edu/condor

• NCSA/BI Pool ~ 40 Workstations - Capable of Providing Free 9000 SGI CPU- Hours Per Month

• Being Commercialized by KnowledgePort Alliance

Enterprise Distributed ComputingHas a Long History

• Digital Equipment– Recompile VMS by

Following the Sun

• United Technologies– Parameter Optimization for

Jet Engines

• University of Wisconsin– Condor Flock for Science

and Engineering Research

• NCSA– Rendering Special Effects

• What is Available Now is Company Supported Software

Livny, UW Madison

The Enterprise Server Market ShareAppears to Also Be Shifting to Wintel

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

1998 1999 2000 2004

Unix Wintel NT

Servers <$100K Source: IDC, as reported in Forbes 1.22.01, pg 88

Entropia’s Open PlatformIs Enterprise Friendly

• Distributed Computing Platforms Must Protect: – Application and its Data– Underlying Machine State– Binary Sandbox Ensures Strong Security Guarantees

• Entropia is Language Neutral– Applications Can Be Written in C, C++, Fortran, Java– Apps Can be Integrated in Source or Binary Form

• Scalability, Flexibility, and Fault Tolerance – Scheduling Infrastructure Scales– Supports Intermittent Network Connectivity– Monitoring and Fault Tolerance

• Stealth and Managability – Yields Processor Cycles in 1/100 of a Second– Centralized Management Console

0

4

8

12

16

1997 1999 2001 2003

US

Ins

talle

d (

Mill

ion

s)

DSL

Cable Modems

Broadband Will Connect 30 Million Homes and Small Businesses in Three Years

• As with Intranet PCs:– PCs Always On– High Bandwidth

Access– Corporate Drivers

– Ford Motor Co. is Buying Home PCs for All its Employees

– IBM Is Using SBC to Supply 12,000 Employees with Home DSL

• Stage is Set for Explosion of Internet Computing– Tie PCs Together as

Virtual MegacomputerSource: Kinetic Strategies Inc.,

Gilder Technology ReportPioneer Consulting

A Homogeneous Installed Base of Wintel PCsDominate Internet Computing

0

2

4

6

8

10

X86 Sparc PPC MIPS PA_RISC ALPHA

Ag

gre

ga

te

Te

ra

flo

ps

distributed.net

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

Win

do

ws

Ma

c

Lin

ux

So

laris

Irix

BS

D

HP

UX

OS

F

AIX

OS

/2

SC

O

Op

en

VM

S

T6

4

Be

os

Ne

xtS

tep

To

tal C

PU

-Ye

ars

SETI@home

Everyone Can be an Application Developer

Entropia’s Planetary Computer Grew to a Teraflop in Only Two Years

Deployed in Over 80 Countries

The Great Mersenne Prime (2P-1) Search (GIMPS)Found the First Million Digit Prime

www.entropia.comEight 1000p IBM Blue Horizons

The Drive toward Commodity Processorsin Parallel Computing100x Processors

RISC Processors

Cray X-MP TMC CM-5 IBM SP

Intel Processors

ASCI Red Internet ComputingPC Clusters

100x Processors?

Changes in Architecture Induce Changes in Algorithms

Exponential Growth in Scale of PC Parallel Computers

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

10000000

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

NASA Beowulf (1GF)

Sandia ASCI Red (1TF)

1,000,000x in Only Ten Years

ASCI White (10TF)

BlueGene (1PF)

SETI@home (10TF)

Internet Megacomputers (10 PFs)

Entropia1 (1+TF)

The Rush to Create Distributed Computing Applications

Time MagazineOctober 16, 2000

Extending the Grid to Planetary Dimensions Using Distributed Computing and Storage

AutoDock Application Software Has Been Downloaded to Over 16,000 PCsOver 2 Million CPU-Hours Computed

In SilicoDrug Design

Art Olson, TSRI

What Data is Needed to Specify a Single Eukaryotic Cell?

• Organelles– 4 Million Ribosomes– 30,000 Proteasomes– Dozens of Mitochondria

• Macromolecules– 5 Billion Proteins

– 5,000 to 10,000 different species

– 1 meter of DNA with Several Billion bases

– 60 Million tRNAs– 700,000 mRNAs

• Chemical Pathways– Vast numbers– Tightly coupled

• Is a Virtual Cell Possible?

www.people.virginia.edu/~rjh9u/cell1.html

Monte Carlo Cellular Microphysiology From IBM Blue Horizon to the Grid

• PROJECT LEADERS– Francine D. Berman

– UC San Diego– Terrence J. Sejnowski

– Salk Institute for Biological Studies

• PARTICIPANTS– Dorian Arnold

Jack DongarraRichard Wolski

– University of Tennessee

– Thomas M. BartolLin-Wei Wu

– Salk Institute for Biological Studies

– Henri CasanovaMark H. EllismanMaryann Martone

– UC San Diego

Neurotransmitter Activity Leading to Muscle Contraction

• MCell Simulated: • The Transmission of 6,000 Molecules of the Neurotransmitter Acetylcholine (Cyan Specks) • In a Reconstructed Mouse Sternomastoid Neuromuscular Junction • Containing Acetylcholinesterase (White Spheres).

Rendered by Tom Bartol of the Salk Institute for Biological Studies & Joel Stiles of Cornell University

using Pixar PhotoRealistic RenderMan

www.npaci.edu/envision/v16.4/mcell.html

Developing Massively Scalable Market Volatility Formulas

• Partnership Between: – Entropia– Researchers at Simon Business School and Wharton

• Goal to Better Understand Market Volatility • Entropia Provides Massive Computing Power

www.safermarkets.com

Launches in Next 30 Days!

Computing and Graphics Has Enabled Artists to Create Extended Reality

http://access.ncsa.uiuc.edu/http://movies.warnerbros.com/twister

www.jurassicpark.comwww.cinemenium.com/perfectstorm/

1987

1993

1996

2000

Stefen Fangmeier Computer GraphicsFrom NCSA to ILM

Film Rendering is a Parallel Computational Problem

• Send Each Frame to a Different Processor• The Rise of PC Cluster Render Farms• Computer Game Rendering

– Now Exceeds Movie Rendering Demands

• Internet Computing—The Next Big Step?– Democratization of Multimedia Art Creation– Garage & On-Line Film Making

– Eg. 405 The Movie– 3 Months on One PC

– From Studio to the Grid

www.405themovie.com

Casino-21: Large Scale Monte CarloClimate Simulations

• Ensemble Computing Varying Model Parameters• Evaluate Model Against Current Climate• Home in on Most Realistic Models by Natural Selection• Then Model 21st Century Climate Evolution• One Climate Model per PC

Rutherford Appleton Laboratory

www.climate-dynamics.rl.ac.uk/index.html

Evolving Working Robots Using Internet Computing

• Golem Project (golem03.cs-i.brandeis.edu)– Genetically Organized Lifelike Electro Mechanics

• Simple Electro-Mechanical Systems Evolved From Scratch to Yield Physical Locomoting Machines

• First Time Robots Have Been Robotically Designed and Robotically Fabricated

• Now Running on the Golem@home Project– Currently 15,000 Clients

“Crab” “Tetra”

A Mobile Internet Powered by a Planetary Scale Computer

From Software as Engineering to Software as Biology

• Stanford Professor John Koza• Uses Genetic Programming to Create a Working Computer Program

From a High-Level Problem Statement of a Problem• Starting With a Primordial Ooze of Thousands of Randomly Created

Computer Programs, a Population of Programs Is Progressively Evolved Over a Series of Generations

• Has Produced 21 Human-Competitive Results

1,000-Pentium Beowulf-Style Cluster Computer for Genetic Programming

www.genetic-programming.com/

Why Will a Million Processor Computer Be Different?

• Individual Processors Running at Gigaflops– One Million Means a Collective Petaflops– One Petaflops is Roughly a Human Brain-Second

– Morovec-Intelligent Robots and Mind Transferral– Koza-Genetic Programming – Kurzweil-The Age of Spiritual Machines– Joy-Humans an Endangered Species?

• Will the Grid Become Self-– Organizing– Powered– Aware?

Things Are About to Get Very Interesting…

Source: Hans Moravecwww.transhumanist.com/volume1/power_075.jpg

The Future is Peer-to-Peer