Minda Industries Ltd. Minda Industries Ltd. Stock Idea Auto Components Rating: BUY Date September 26, 2016 CMP (Rs.) 294 Target (Rs.) 380 Potential Upside 29% BSE Sensex 28294 NSE Nifty 8723 Scrip Code Bloomberg MNDA IN Reuters MNDA.BO BSE Group B BSE Code 532539 NSE Symbol MINDAIND Market Data Market Cap.(Rs. Cr) 2396 Equity Sh. Cap. (Rs Cr) 19.4 52 Wk High/Low 330/99 Avg. Quarterly Volume 15445 Face Value (Rs.) 2 Shareholding Pattern (Jun-16) Comparative Price Chart Varsha Bang Research Analyst [email protected]Arun Gopalan Vice President – Research [email protected]Minda Industries Limited (MIL) is the flagship company of the UNO Minda Group. MIL is one of the leading suppliers of switching systems, lighting systems, acoustic systems & alloy wheels among others for 2W/3W/4W in the Indian automotive market. MIL has more than 28 manufacturing plants in India and 5 R&D centers globally. Minda’s technology tie-ups with global suppliers that give it access to new and high value products, its ability to gain market share across segments & globe and robust growth potential would benefit from a demand recovery in the industry and ramp-up with new customers and products. We estimate consolidated revenue to post 24% CAGR over FY16-18E, resulting in EBITDA margin expansion of 90bps and EPS CAGR of ~37%. Technology tie-ups and innovation in products will drive to increase market share Strategic alliances with global players in the auto ancillary segment have established MIL as a technology leader with the capability to innovate and introduce new high value products. MIL has partnered with 9 global technology players with 120 product patents and 145 registered designs. Given its focus on innovation & its varied product range, MIL has gained access to new platforms of clients & thus enabling it to gain market share globally. Apart from superior technology, we believe these tie ups provide access to OEMs as well as access to innovative products. MIL is well poised to outgrow automotive industry & expect it to post a CAGR of 24% in revenue over FY2016-18E. Robust portfolio of differentiated products MIL has evolved from being a switch player to a company supplying multiple products in the auto ancillary industry. MIL is the largest manufacturer of automotive switches in India with a market share of 67%. Manufacture switches for 2W/3W and off road and it also has a presence in 4W switches through its associate company. MIL is a prominent player in lighting system and recently acquired the global lighting business of Rinder Group for Euro 20 mn with this acquisition market share of MIL will be 22%. We are expecting Lighting segment to post 50% CAGR over a period of FY16-FY18E on account of Rinder acquisition which will enhance its footprint in Indonesia and Vietnam. In horns segment MIL is the largest manufacturer in India with a market share of 55%. It acquired Spain based Clarton Horns in FY14 which has catapulted MIL to the No 2 position among horn manufacturers worldwide. It also manufactures other auto components like Alloy wheels, Low pressure Die Casting, Gas kits, Blow Molds, Fuel Caps and Batteries. We believe that well diversified product range will give MIL an edge over the other players in the industry and boost the margins going forward. Expanding footprint in the replacement market With a strong network of 764 dealers and 10000 touch retailers, MIL’s aftermarket sales have been growing at a CAGR of 24% over a five year period to Rs. 438 cr. In the overall revenue mix the replacement market sales account for 18%. We are in agreement with the projections made by the Management & expect aftermarket sales to grow at a CAGR of 25% during FY16-18E. The revenue contribution of the replacement market will also improve from 18% in FY16 to 20% in FY18E Return ratios to improve led by strong profit growth over FY16-FY18E With an expected revival in the auto industry providing multiple levers of growth and margin expansion, we believe MIL will benefit from strong revenue growth in lighting business and other high margin products, turnaround of subsidiaries will improve PAT going forward. EBITDA margin is expected to improve from 9.5% in FY16 to 10.4% in FY18E, on the back of higher utilization levels. Due to limited CAPEX requirements and strong operating cash flow, FCF generation of Rs. 218 crs in FY18E. With this, net debt to equity is likely to decline to 0.3X in FY2018E from 0.7X in FY2016. The company’s return ratios are likely to improve over the next two years. We expect MIL to report RoE/RoCE of 29%/28% in FY2018E. Valuation: Decent growth story at reasonable valuation We estimate MIL revenue to grow at a CAGR of 24% over FY16-FY18E led by product innovation, increase in market share and strategic joint ventures. With better capacity utilization and the benefit of operating leverage, the EBITDA margin will inch upwards to 10.4% in FY18E supporting the net earnings of the company. At CMP of Rs. 294, MIL is trading at 11.6x FY18E EPS. We value the company at a P/E 15x for FY18E EPS and recommended a BUY with a target price of Rs. 380, an upside of 29% in a year. Year Sales (Rs.cr) Growth (%) EBITDA (Rs.cr) Margin (%) PAT (Rs.cr) Margin (%) Adj EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA ROE% FY15 2200.3 30.2% 154.3 7.0% 55.7 2.5% 7.0 41.9 13.8 16.5% FY16 2506.1 13.9% 237.8 9.5% 107.0 4.3% 13.5 21.8 8.4 25.6% FY17E 3332.3 33.0% 332.1 10.0% 153.6 4.6% 19.4 15.2 5.7 28.4% FY18E 3840.0 15.2% 398.6 10.4% 201.2 5.2% 25.4 11.6 5.2 28.5% Promoter , 70.9 FII, 3.6 DII, 1 Others, 24.5 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 18-Sep 18-Dec 18-Mar 18-Jun 18-Sep MIL Sensex
9
Embed
Minda Industries Ltd. - systematixgroup.in Industries Limited (MIL) is the flagship company of the UNO Minda Group. MIL is one uppliers of switching systems, lighting systems, acoustic
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Minda Industries Ltd.
Minda Industries Ltd. Stock Idea
Auto Components Rating: BUY
Date September 26, 2016 CMP (Rs.) 294 Target (Rs.) 380 Potential Upside 29% BSE Sensex 28294 NSE Nifty 8723
Scrip Code Bloomberg MNDA IN Reuters MNDA.BO BSE Group B BSE Code 532539 NSE Symbol MINDAIND Market Data Market Cap.(Rs. Cr) 2396 Equity Sh. Cap. (Rs Cr) 19.4 52 Wk High/Low 330/99 Avg. Quarterly Volume 15445 Face Value (Rs.) 2 Shareholding Pattern (Jun-16)
Minda Industries Limited (MIL) is the flagship company of the UNO Minda Group. MIL is one
of the leading suppliers of switching systems, lighting systems, acoustic systems & alloy
wheels among others for 2W/3W/4W in the Indian automotive market. MIL has more than 28
manufacturing plants in India and 5 R&D centers globally. Minda’s technology tie-ups with
global suppliers that give it access to new and high value products, its ability to gain market
share across segments & globe and robust growth potential would benefit from a demand
recovery in the industry and ramp-up with new customers and products. We estimate
consolidated revenue to post 24% CAGR over FY16-18E, resulting in EBITDA margin
expansion of 90bps and EPS CAGR of ~37%.
Technology tie-ups and innovation in products will drive to increase market share
Strategic alliances with global players in the auto ancillary segment have established MIL as a
technology leader with the capability to innovate and introduce new high value products. MIL has
partnered with 9 global technology players with 120 product patents and 145 registered designs.
Given its focus on innovation & its varied product range, MIL has gained access to new platforms of
clients & thus enabling it to gain market share globally. Apart from superior technology, we believe
these tie ups provide access to OEMs as well as access to innovative products. MIL is well poised
to outgrow automotive industry & expect it to post a CAGR of 24% in revenue over FY2016-18E.
Robust portfolio of differentiated products
MIL has evolved from being a switch player to a company supplying multiple products in the auto ancillary industry. MIL is the largest manufacturer of automotive switches in India with a market share of 67%. Manufacture switches for 2W/3W and off road and it also has a presence in 4W switches through its associate company. MIL is a prominent player in lighting system and recently acquired the global lighting business of Rinder Group for Euro 20 mn with this acquisition market share of MIL will be 22%. We are expecting Lighting segment to post 50% CAGR over a period of FY16-FY18E on account of Rinder acquisition which will enhance its footprint in Indonesia and Vietnam. In horns segment MIL is the largest manufacturer in India with a market share of 55%. It acquired Spain based Clarton Horns in FY14 which has catapulted MIL to the No 2 position among horn manufacturers worldwide. It also manufactures other auto components like Alloy wheels, Low pressure Die Casting, Gas kits, Blow Molds, Fuel Caps and Batteries. We believe that well diversified product range will give MIL an edge over the other players in the industry and boost the margins going forward.
Expanding footprint in the replacement market
With a strong network of 764 dealers and 10000 touch retailers, MIL’s aftermarket sales have been growing at a CAGR of 24% over a five year period to Rs. 438 cr. In the overall revenue mix the replacement market sales account for 18%. We are in agreement with the projections made by the Management & expect aftermarket sales to grow at a CAGR of 25% during FY16-18E. The revenue contribution of the replacement market will also improve from 18% in FY16 to 20% in FY18E
Return ratios to improve led by strong profit growth over FY16-FY18E
With an expected revival in the auto industry providing multiple levers of growth and margin expansion, we believe MIL will benefit from strong revenue growth in lighting business and other high margin products, turnaround of subsidiaries will improve PAT going forward. EBITDA margin is expected to improve from 9.5% in FY16 to 10.4% in FY18E, on the back of higher utilization levels. Due to limited CAPEX requirements and strong operating cash flow, FCF generation of Rs. 218 crs in FY18E. With this, net debt to equity is likely to decline to 0.3X in FY2018E from 0.7X in FY2016. The company’s return ratios are likely to improve over the next two years. We expect MIL to report RoE/RoCE of 29%/28% in FY2018E.
Valuation: Decent growth story at reasonable valuation
We estimate MIL revenue to grow at a CAGR of 24% over FY16-FY18E led by product innovation,
increase in market share and strategic joint ventures. With better capacity utilization and the benefit
of operating leverage, the EBITDA margin will inch upwards to 10.4% in FY18E supporting the net
earnings of the company. At CMP of Rs. 294, MIL is trading at 11.6x FY18E EPS. We value the
company at a P/E 15x for FY18E EPS and recommended a BUY with a target price of Rs. 380, an
The Indian auto ancillary industry is one of the fastest growing industries and is riding on the success of the auto sector. The auto industry is highly competitive with the presence of a large number of global and Indian auto-companies. As per ACMA, Indian auto components Industry grew by 8.8% to a turnover US$ 39 bn in 2016. Exports accounted for US$ 10.8 bn of the total turnover in 2016. The auto component sector contributes about 7% of India’s GDP and is among the largest employers in the economy. Original equipment’s sales constitutes 54%, while replacement and exports comprise 17% and 29% of the revenue mix
Automotive industry
Asia-Pacific is the most attractive region for automotive switches market. There is a significant increase in demand for automotives in the Asia-pacific region which is driving the market for automotive switches. The adoption of latest technology is another driver, driving the automotive switches market in this region. Increasing number of vehicle manufacturing facilities due to low cost of production in developing countries, increasing production capacity, and growing demand for light and heavy vehicles is driving the market for automotive switches in these countries. Presence of developing countries like India and China are also boosting the demand for automotive switches as there is a huge demand for automotives in these countries. The automotive switches market of the Asia-Pacific region is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.16% from 2014–2019E. The North America, OEMs are setting up manufacturing facilities in Mexico, given the cheap labor and lower cost of vehicle production. This has pushed the vehicle production volume in Mexico, and this is expected to drive the switches market. The North American automotive switches market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 6.39% from 2014–2019E. The European automotive industry was growing negatively following the Euro Crisis of 2008. However, the European automotive industry is recovering at a faster pace after 2013, and this is expected to drive the demand for switches in Eastern and Western Europe. The European automotive switches market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.33% from 2014–2019E. Overall, the automotive switches market, in terms of volume, is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.9% from 2014–2019E and reach 666.6 mn units by 2019E.
Lighting Industry
The Automotive Lighting Market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.22%, from FY2016 to FY2021 reaching US$ 29.53 bn. The automotive lighting market is driven by increasing vehicle production, technological advancements and partly by stringent regulations. The automotive lighting market has been segmented by region, technology, vehicle type, position, two-wheeler and adaptive lighting. LED is the fastest growing technology in automotive lighting market. It is energy efficient, lightweight and takes less space. Given the advantages of LED, they are being increasingly adopted in vehicles across the globe. Therefore, there is a great opportunity for Indian manufacturers to have a chunk of business from the global market. Demand for LEDs used in automotives will touch US$2.5 billion by 2018E. From 2014-18E, the market for automotive LEDs is expected to grow revenue wise by compounded growth rate of 9%.
Outlook
Implementation of the 7th Pay Commission is expected to support demand for urban/semi-urban segment demand for PV, and scooter, whereas rural demand for motorcycles and tractors will be driven by robust monsoon improving farmer cash flows and sentiments. In exports, robust demand for PV in North America as well as Europe is likely to offset decline in the M&HCV segment in those markets. Consequently, both exports and OE demand is expected to perform relatively better in FY2017E. Relatively higher OE and exports demand, coupled with stable aftermarket demand, is likely to drive overall auto component industry growth.
Minda Industries Ltd.
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Founded in 1958, Minda Industries Ltd. (MIL), a flagship company of UNO Minda, NK Minda group,
engaged in diversified businesses of manufacturing of auto electrical parts including switches, lights,
horns, gas kits and batteries for the off road, two, three and four wheelers. MIL is a market leader in
switches and horns segment commanding a market share of 61% and 55% respectively. The Company
caters to both domestic and international markets with good hold in both OEMs and After-market
segments.
MIL has a wide clientele covering major automobile manufacturers in India as well as abroad. With the
new acquisitions and ventures, it is adding advanced, technology enabled products to its present portfolio
and also gaining in its market share. Headquartered in Delhi, MIL has more than 28 manufacturing plants
in India and 5 R&D centers globally. Minda has partnered with 9 Global Technology players. Till date, it
has more than 120 plus product patents and 145 plus design registrations.
Group Profile Of Minda Industries Ltd.
Group Profile: Products & Structure (as on June 2016)
We have compared MIL with Lumax, FIEM and Phoenix lamps which are also in auto ancillary space.
Though the stock has ran up in the past, we believe the valuations are still attractive and the stock can
give decent returns in the future.
Mutual Fund Holding as of 31st August
Fund MV(Aug 2016)
MV(Jul 2016)
Mkt Value Change
Shares inAug-2016
Shares inJul-2016
Shares Change
IDFC MF 35.2 0.0 35.2 278906 0 278906
Grand Total 35.2 0.0 35.2 278906 0 278906
Key Management Personnel
Name & Designation Brief Profile
Mr. Nirmal K Minda Chairman and MD
He is Graduate in B.Sc with more than 32 years of rich experience in Auto Components sector. Under his dynamic leadership, the group has grown manifold and has established footprints across the globe and has received numerous awards and recognitions. He has been instrumental in forging new alliances and joint venture partnership with globally renowned names. “Haryana Ratna award” has been bestowed upon him for his professional and social achievements. He has served as the chairman of ACMA northern region for three consecutive years. At present, he is the member of the executive committee of ACMA northern region.
Mr. Anand Kumar Minda Non Executive Director
Over 35 years of hands on experience in financial control, reviews, manufacturing, and project management. He has been appointed as member of the Board since 2011. He plays a pivotal role in new projects and strategy formulation.
Mr. Sudhir Jain CFO and Executive Director
He is CA, CS, FCA and ACS and has more than 25 years of experience in Minda Group. He heads all strategic planning for sustainable growth as well as vetting all strategic alliances and business valuation activities.
Minda Industries Ltd. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE (Rs. In Crs)
I. ANALYST CERTIFICATION We, Varsha Bang and Arun Gopalan, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report, (2) No part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report by Systematix Shares & Stocks (I) Limited or its Group/associates companies. (3) has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
Disclosure of Interest Statement Response
Analyst holding in the stock No
Served as an officer, director or employee No
II. ISSUER SPECIFIC REGULATORY DISCLOSURES, UNLESS SPECIFICALLY MENTIONED IN POINT NO. 9 BELOW:
1. The Research Analyst(s), Systematix Shares & Stocks(I) Limited (SSSIL), Associate of Analyst or his relative does not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in this report. 2. The Research Analyst, SSSIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the company (ies) covered in this report as of the end of
the month immediately preceding the distribution of the research report. 3. The Research Analyst, his associate, his relative and SSSIL do not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report. 4. The Research Analyst, SSSIL and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the
company(ies) covered in this report, in the past twelve months. 5. The Research Analyst, SSSIL or its associates have not managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months, a private or public offering of securities for the company (ies) covered in this report. 6. SSSIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party, in connection with the research report. 7. The Research Analyst has not served as an Officer, Director or employee of the company (ies) covered in the Research report. 8. The Research Analyst and SSSIL has not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in the Research report. 9. Details SSSIL, Research Analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in the Research report:
Sr. No.
Particulars Yes / No.
1 Whether compensation has been received from the company(ies) covered in the Research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by SSSIL No
2 Whether Research Analyst, SSSIL or its associates or relatives of the Research Analyst affiliates collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the Research report No
3 Whether compensation has been received by SSSIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the Research report No
4 SSSIL or its affiliates have managed or co-managed in the previous twelve months a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in the Research report No
5 Research Analyst, his associate, SSSIL or its associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or for any other products or services from the company(ies) covered in the Research report, in the last twelve month
No
10. There are no material disciplinary action that been taken by any regulatory authority impacting equity research analysis activities. 11. Systematix Shares & Stocks (I) Limited is in a process of seeking registration under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014.
III. DISCLAIMER The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.
This document is for information purposes only. This report is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and one should exercise due caution while acting on it. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as on the date of the report and these, plus any other information contained in the report, are subject to change without notice. Prices and availabili ty of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice.
This report is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject to SSSIL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. Any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure of this report including, but not limited to, redistribution by electronic mail, posting of the report on a website or page, and/or providing to a third party a link , is prohibited by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the Report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.
SSSIL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. Additionally, SSSIL generally prohibits its analysts and persons reporting to analysts from serving as an officer, director, or advisory board member of any companies that the analysts cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this document is determined exclusively by SSSIL however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a part. Research analysts and sales persons of SSSIL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addit ion, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
MUTUAL FUND INVESTMENTS ARE SUBJECT TO MARKET RISKS, READ ALL SCHEME RELATED DOCUMENTS CAREFULLY. SSSIL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report including but not restricted to fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
SSSIL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees subject to the information given in the disclosures may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest) or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential material conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to the views expressed therein.
SSSIL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SSSIL, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties. The Report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the Report refers to website material of the Company, the Company has not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of the Company shall be at your own risk and the Company shall have no liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website
SSSIL shall not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall the SSSIL be liable for any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SSSIL through this presentation.
Neither SSSIL, nor any of its other group companies or associates, shall be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their Investment and Tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report. Systematix Shares & Stocks (I) Ltd. CIN: U65993TN1995PLC031285 : SEBI Regn. No.: BSE: INB/F011132736 Member Code: 182 | NSE: INB/F/E231132730 Member Code : 11327 | MCX-SX: INB/F261132733 Member Code: 17560 | PMS SEBI Reg No. : INP000002692 | Depository Participant: IN-DP-CDSL-246-2004 | AMFI: ARN No. 64917 Corporate Office Address: A 603-606 , The Capital, BKC, Bandra (E), Mumbai, India - 400051