MIMIC Minimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies Jakub Montewka, PhD Presenter: Kaarle Ståhlberg, MSc Aalto University, Kotka Maritime Research Centre November 4 th , 2011 Steering Committee meeting
Feb 10, 2016
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
Jakub Montewka, PhDPresenter: Kaarle Ståhlberg, MSc
Aalto University, Kotka Maritime Research Centre
November 4th, 2011Steering Committee meeting
Background
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
• Maritime traffic poses various hazards
• Oil spills are often major disasters
• Risk management actions forced by catastrophic spills.
• Post-accident policies not comprehensive, biased by the characteristics of single accident.
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Background
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
• Most major spills from sea transport• Spill size not a measure of
environmental damage
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8664684.stm
Present status – the oil tankers traffic in the Gulf of Finland
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/
On avarage more than 3000 ships bound to the Gulf of Finland monthly.
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
Present status – modelling the oil tankers traffic in the Gulf of Finland
Research conducted within a flagship project EfficienSea, 2009-2012
Motivation for MIMIC
Current Models• Segregated models
– Effects on details• Results are abstract
– Accident probability– spill size
• Poor future predictivity
MIMIC• Holistic approach
– System level effects• Results as RCO’s
– Risk Control Options– Policy decision support
• Future trends– Traffic flows– Ship design
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
Holistic risk assessment for the maritime domain
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
• System > Σ parts• Changes in one part -> system changes
IMO. Guidelines fo Formal Safety Assessment for use in the IMO rule-making process. MSC/Circ.1023, MEPC/Circ.392, 2002
A framework for modelling a risk in maritime domain
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
RISK ASSESSMENT
Risk analysis Risk criteria Risk control options Recommendations
Human factors
Technical factors
Ship type
Surroundings
Consequence type
Social impactSocial impact
Economical impact
Environmental impact
Frequency reduction
Consequence mitigation
Regulations
Ship design and operation
Waterway design and operation
Risk optimization
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
Risk=Probability x ConsequencesProbability:• Navigators performance• Waterways• Ship managment• etc...
Consequences:• Ship crashworthiness• Damage ship stability• Accident response• etc...
1. Define feasible options and dependencies among them. 2. Define the constrains.3. Perform the optimization having the risk as an objective.4. Find the set of optimal solutions.5. Consider the optimal solutions as RECOMMENDATIONS
MIMIC contributions
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
• Contribution for several stakeholders• Society• Policy makers• Ship managers
• EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region• ‘to make the Baltic Sea Region a safe and secure place’• linking security issues with safety management• ‘to make the Baltic Sea region an environmentally sustainable
place’
• Applicable for ant other sea area• Gulf of Finland as demonstrative area
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
Expected Results
• Holistic maritime risk management– Integrating knowledge from previous projects
• OILECO, SAFGOF, METKU, EFFICIENSEA, CAFÉ, OILRISK
– Grounding risk– Security issues– Traffic flow internals– Environmental and economical effects– Optimization of risk management for efficiency
MIMICMinimizing Risks of Maritime Oil Transport by Holistic Safety Strategies
November 4th, 2011
Expected Results
• Proactive policy decision assessment tool– Holistic impact evaluation of policy options– Improving prediction of future developments
• Web-based risk managment tool– Integrating security and safety– Combining probability and consequenses– Supporting accident response decisions
• Training• Planning
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