Millennium Development Goals Report, Uzbekistan 2015

Tashkent, 2015

Millennium Development Goals Report Uzbekistan – 2015

I. MDGs Towards 2015: What Are The Results Attained So Far?

National MDGs: Progress Attained So Far

Improving Living Standards

• In 2001-2013, amid stable economic growth rates, Uzbekistan was able to nearly halve its poverty rate – from 27.5% to 14.1%.

While GDP per capita and real wages doubled; income differentiation reduced steeply.

Living standards improved also for various socio-economic groups: poverty rates among families with children under 16 more than halved between 2007 and 2013.

The country is well on its way to halving the poverty rate towards 2015

Rapid growth of per capita income was accompanied by the reduction of inequalities

Poverty reduced not only at the national, but also at the sub-national level

2552,6 4185,1 5002,5

0,39

0,30 0,29

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2001 2010 2013

GDP per capita, at PPP, USD Gini coefficient

National MDGs: Progress Attained So Far Expanding Opportunities: Education

• Universal access has been achieved: Enrolment in secondary education maintained at 98-99.8%.

• Unique system of specialized secondary professional education, which has opened up additional opportunities for human development : enrolment in SSPE rose from 31.2% in 2002 to 99.6% in 2013.

• Opportunities are provided for access to girls, ethnic groups and children with disabilities.

• Schools and colleges specializing in music and arts provide unique opportunities for children in both urban and rural areas to develop skills in these subjects.

Universal access has been achieved: Enrolment in secondary specialized and professional education rose from 31.2% to 99.6%

General secondary education institutions of Uzbekistan provide opportunities to study in 7 different languages

Enrolment in SSPE increased not only at the national, but also at the sub-national level

31,2 38,5

46,5 50,4

64,4 73,2

92,4 96,8 97,7 98,8 99,5 99,6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Secondary specialized and professional education

General secondary education

86,0%

2,0%

0,2% 2,0%

0,3% 1,1%

9,0%

0,01%

Uzbek

Karakalpak

Turkmen

Tajik

Kyrgyz

Kazakh

Russian

0

20

40

60

80

100Andijan

Bukhara

Djizak

Kashkadarya

Navoi

Namangan

SamarkandSurkhandarya

Sirdarya

Taskent

Fergana

Khorezm

Tashkent-city

2001

2013

National MDGs: Progress Attained So Far Expanding Opportunities: Gender Equality

• Parity has been maintained in enrolment in primary and general secondary education, and since 2009 in professional colleges.

• Women’s employment in small businesses and private entrepreneurship rose significantly. In 2012, 40.4% of small enterprises and 13.7% of micro-enterprises were run by women.

• The proportion of women in the Parliament increased from 19% in 2005 to 22% in 2013.

• The proportion of women in the Executive Power increased 5 times from 3.4% in 2005 to 16% in 2013.

Parity has been maintained in enrolment in primary and general secondary education, and since 2009 in professional colleges

Women’s Participation in Political Parties increased

51,5% 51,3% 57,4%

48,4% 48,7% 42,6%

0,0%

10,0%

20,0%

30,0%

40,0%

50,0%

60,0%

70,0%

General educationinstitutions

Vocational colleges Academic lyceums

Boys Girls

Share of girls at the age of 6-15, going in for sports increased susbstantially both at the national and sub-national levels

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

LiberalDemocratic

Party

People’s Democratic

Party

SocialDemocratic

Party "Adolat"

Democratic Party “Milliy

tiklanish”

2006

2007

2009

2010

2013

National MDGs: Progress Attained So Far Improving the Quality of Life: Health

• The Under-five child mortality reduced.

• Regional disparities in child mortality rates decreased by 57.3% between 2000 and 2013.

• The target on halving the proportion of underweight children under five years of age has been achieved.

• Maternal mortality ratio fell to 20.0 per 100,000 live births in 2013, surpassing the national target of 22.6.

• A slow down of the spread of HIV after the peak of 2009 while the number of HIV tests increased 3.5 times.

The Under-five children mortality rate decreased between 2002 and 2013

The proportion of underweight children under five years of age decreased from 3.8% in 2001 to 1.6% in 2013

Maternal mortality ratio fell from 34.1 per 100,000 live births in 2001 to 20.0 in 2013

The spread of HIV has slown down after the peak of 2009 while the number of HIV tests increased 3.5 times

56,9 54,7

52,6 50,6 48,9

47,3

45,7 44,0 42,5 41,0

39,6

24,3 23,2

21,4 20,6 20,1 18,8 17,3 15,9

14,8 14,1 13,4

12

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

IGME National Statistics

3,9

2,7 2,3 2,2

1,9 1,8 1,6

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

34,1 32,0 32,2

30,2 29,2

24,8 23,5 22,4

30,4

21,0 23,1

20,2 20,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

40,0

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Number of peoplenewly diagnosed with HIV

Number of people, tested for HIV (right axis)

National MDGs: Progress Attained So Far Improving the Quality of Life: Environment

• Water and land resources were better managed, resulting in reversal of the loss of key resources.

• The current system of protected areas allows for the comprehensive protection of biodiversity and ecosystems and their sustainable use.

• Energy and power supply has improved with the development of infrastructure and an efficient system of energy supply.

• The amount of pollutant emissions has substantially decreased.

• Access to an improved water source, adequate sanitation facilities, access to waste management.

Share of Saline Lands reduced from 54.2% to 48% in 2000-2013

Air pollutant emissions reduced Energy efficiency improved and CO2 emissions reduced

Air Pollution Index (API) in major cities of Uzbekistan decreased steeply

444546474849505152535455

30,8

65,1

95,4

28,1

49,5

77,1

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

fromstationary

sources

from mobilesources

total

2000 2013

0123456789

2000 2012

%

Kg per capita

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

2,2

250

350

450

550

650

750

850

Energy use (kg of oil equivalent) per$1000 GDPCO2 emissions (kg per 2011 PPP $ of GDP)

II. Key Factors that Contributed

to Achievement of the Results

Key Factors that Contributed to Achievement of the Results: Structural Reforms to Ensure Sustainable Economic Development

• As the adverse effects of the first years of transition have been mitigated, the focus shifted to modernization, technical and technological renovation of basic industries (fuel and energy, metallurgy etc.)

• Focus on basic industries was essential to ensure rapid economic growth, expand exports, maintain macroeconomic sustainability, thus providing the basis for sustainable welfare improvement in the long term.

• Large investments into industrial sector contributed to the transformation of the employment pattern.

Expanded investments into basic industries to ensure sustainable economic development and welfare improvement in the long term

Transformation of GDP structure contributed to the transformation of employment pattern

This contributed to the structural transformation of GDP and ensured sustained rapid economic growth

0,05,0

10,015,020,025,030,035,040,0 2000 2013

Transformation of investment structure, %

20,4 20,1 21,4 20,8

19,5 20,9

24,5 25,4 24,6 22,8 23,3 24,1

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Investments to GDP, %

14,1 21,1 23,9 24 24,2

30,0 26,3 18,0 17,6 17,6

44 42 49 52 53

11,9 10,6 9,2 8,3 8

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

2001 2005 2010 2012 2013

Structure of GDP, %

Industry Agriculture

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2001 2005 2010 2012 2013

Total number of the employed, thousand people (right scale)IndustryAgriculture and forestryServices and others

Employment structure, %

Key factors that Contributed to achievement of the results: Development of Small Business to Compensate for the Limited Impact

of Basic Industries on Employment

• Focus on basic capital intensive industries and reduction of employment in agriculture required additional measures to expand employment Development of small business was employed as one of such instruments

Between 2001 and 2013 the share of SB and PE in employment increased from 51.8% to 76.7%;

Catalytic role of SB and PE for introduction and effective implementation of market mechanisms and institutional transformations;

SB and PE as a main factor of accelerated structural reforms and transformations: economic growth, diversification and growth of exports, etc.

Development of small business contributed to structural transformation of the economy

Revenues from entrepreneurial activities increased

Small business has contributed to employment generation and poverty reduction

12,5

74,5

37 28,1

98,1

48,9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Industry Agriculture Services

2001 2013

Share of small business by sectors, %

51,8

76,7

33,8

55,8

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Proportion of employed in small business, %

Share of small business in GDP, %

Poverty rate, % (left axis)

2000 2012

Non-monetizedrevenuesOther monetizedrevenuesSocial transfers

Revenue from property

Revenue fromentrepreneurial activityWage

Key Factors that Contributed to Achievement of the Results: Social Policies to Fulfill Social Rights and Expand Opportunities

for Various Social Groups

Public expenditures for healthcare increased from 8.7% to 14.4% in 2000-2013

Share of social expenditures in state budget increased from 45.6% to 58.7% between 2001 and 2013

• Targeted social protection (with the focus on families with children) enabled the security of people in cases of inability to pay for provision of key basic social services for vulnerable groups;

• Welfare improvement and poverty reduction Targeted SP system More fiscal space to invest more in education and healthcare;

• Reforms in education implemented within the National Programme for Personnel Training;

• Protection of public health, especially maternal and child health, identified as a priority to develop the nation’s gene pool;

• Social policies with multi-level multiplier effects (sportswear for schoolgirls, introduction of the English language classes from the 1-st form, etc.)

Share of public expenditures for education in the state budget increased from 29% in 2005 to 34.1% in 2013

29 36,7 34,1

6,5 8 8,25

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

10

20

30

40

2005 2010 2013

The share of expenditure on education in the structureof public expenditures, %The share of expenditure on education in GDP, left scale

45,6

58,7 27,5

14,1

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

2 0

01

2 0

02

2 0

03

2 0

04

2 0

05

2 0

06

2 0

07

2 0

08

2 0

09

2 0

10

2 0

11

2 0

12

2 0

13

Social expenditures,total, % (left axis)

Poverty rate, % (leftaxis)

Allowances to low-income families andfamilies withchildren, %

0,0

1000000,0

2000000,0

3000000,0

4000000,0

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

Share in public expenditures, %

Total expenditures, mln s (right axis)

Key Factors that Contributed to Achievement of the Results: Infrastructure Development to Improve Quality of Life

and Create More Opportunities

108,7 109,8

100,3

122,1

100

105

110

115

120

125

100

200

300

1990 2000 2010

• In early 2000-s investments in infrastructure focused on construction and reconstruction of schools, professional colleges, academic lyceums

• In late 2000-s - 2010-s – Anti-crisis programme, development of transport infrastructure, programs on construction of residential housing, etc.

• Better living conditions, better quality of life

• More opportunities, improved business climate

• Stimulation of the domestic demand Economic growth, new jobs, multiplier effects throughout the economy

Public roads with hard surface

Public Railways

Transportation of passengers

Freight

0,0

2000,0

4000,0

6000,0

8000,0

10000,0

12000,0

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Construction and reconstruction of residential buildings, thous.m2

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

Transport

Construction of residential buildings

Construction of education facilities

Shift in the structure of investments to infrastructure: from construction of education buildings to residential ones

Access to water supply system, %

Development of Transport Infrastructure (1990 = 100%)

Key Factors that Contributed to Achievement of the Results: Regional Development Programmes to Ensure Balanced Spatial Development

Regional programs on small business development: Share of SB in GRP increased, %

Accelerated growth of investments into regional development

• Regional programmes aimed at accelerating socio-economic development in the regions through development of small business, investments into industrial projects, infrastructure development, etc.;

• Launch of the new enterprises (automotive enterprise in Asaka and Samarkand, Shurtan GCC); localization programmes;

• Formation of the growth and development poles: FEZ «Navoi», «Angren», «Jizzak», “Tashkent”;

• Shift of the production centers to other regions: e.g. shift of “Damas” production from Asaka to Khoresm.

(% to prev. year)

Regional programs on housing construction: Provision with housing, sq. m. per capita

0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

2000

2012

0,020,040,060,080,0

100,0120,0140,0

Uzb

ekis

tan

Kar

akal

pak

stan

An

dij

an

Bu

kh

ara

Jizz

ak

Kas

hk

adar

ya

Nav

oi

Nam

anga

n

Sam

ark

and

Surk

han

dar

ya

Sird

arya

Fer

gan

a

Kh

ore

sm

Tas

hk

ent

2000

2012

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

Uzb

ekis

tan

Kar

akal

pak

stan

An

dij

an

Bu

kh

ara

Jizz

ak

Kas

hk

adar

ya

Nav

oi

Nam

anga

n

Sam

ark

and

Surk

han

dar

ya

Sird

ary

a

Tas

hk

ent

Fer

gan

a

Kh

ore

sm

Tas

hk

ent-

city

2000

2012

III. The Way Forward: Main Challenges and Objectives

for the Future

Main Challenges and Objectives for the Future: Transformation of the Employment Pattern and

Ensuring Further Improvement in Living Standards

• The delicate balance between the goal of improving the living standards and ensuring the basis for sustainable growth and development in the medium and long term, has been maintained so far.

• Taking into account the demographic trends, transformation of demand for social services, to ensure inclusive growth and sustain welfare improvement further, decent quality productive employment should be expanded.

• This could be done through structural reforms with the focus on manufacturing industries.

• More opportunities, social transformations: expansion of the middle class, transformation of gender roles and stereotypes

New jobs could contribute to further improvement in living standards: low income groups are often economically inactive

2,3

18,2

9,1

5,1

22,1

10

0

5

10

15

20

25

Above the workingage

Working-age people Below the workingage

2012 2030

The number of the population in the working age will increase substantially by 2030

9,1 9 17 22 14,1 26,4 19,4 15

28 19,5 10,5 8

48,9 45,1 52 55

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2012 2020 2030

Processing industry Mining industry

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100% specialists witheducation, skilledworkers and employees

pensioners

unemployed

economically inactive

Employment status of the population by social groups, %

Transformation of the employment pattern will be possible only if the structure of the economy is transformed

Main Challenges and Objectives for the Future: Transformation of Social Policies in Line with the Transformation

of the Economy and Society

• New pattern of employment Transformation of demand for social services

• Education structure and content needs to be transformed in line with the transforming economy structure (structure and quality of SSPE and higher education, pre-primary education etc.)

• Transformed demand for health services More focus on quality and prevention is essential

100% 100% 100%

405% 392% 402%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

Average agepension

Average socialallowance

Average pensionfor the disabled

2012 2030

Structure of higher education also needs to be transformed

100

475

0

100

200

300

400

500

2012 2030

Demand for social services will transform: Average social allowances and pensions (2012=100%)

%

Demand for social services will transform: Average health expenditures (2012=100%)

21,1

11,5

44,4

6,1 7,3

2,2

7,5

38,5

31,7

10,1

5,2

1,8

6,8 5,9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Main Challenges and Objectives for the Future: Spatial Policies Based on the Spillover Effects

to Ensure Balanced Regional Development

• Main trends for the future: Accelerated industrialization and growth of the number of population in the working age

• It is important to:

• 1) Optimize the allocation of production forces Spatial development based on the potential and comparative advantages of the regions

• 2) Develop special instruments to disseminate the effects throughout the regions Small cities could become such an instrument

By 2030 the number of population will grow to 37,3 mln. people

9,1 9 17 22 14,1 26,4 19,4 15 28

19,5 10,5 8

48,9 45,1 52 55

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2012 2020 2030

Processing industry Mining industry Agriculture Services

Small cities could disseminate multiplier effects to ensure balanced spatial development: international experience

Development of small cities is important to ensure social sustainability: By 2025 almost 40% of the population will live in small cities

1,5

0,8

8,9

9,3

4,4

4,7

3,2

1,9

10,4

11,7

4,9

5,1

0 5 10 15

Women (55+)

Men (60+)

Women 16-54)

Men (16-59)

Women (0-15)

Men (0-15) 2030 2012

75 62

25 38

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2013 2030

Share of population in small cities

Share of population in big and medium-sized cities

Structure of the economy will transform: industrialization

Main Challenges and Objectives for the Future: Managing Natural Resources Efficiently to Ensure Sustainable Development

• Population growth and change in the demographic pattern + growth of personal income transformations of the lifestyle and behavioral stereotypes increased demand for food and transformed food consumption pattern transformation of demand for land and water resources

• Higher income will boost consumption and use of air conditioners, computers, washing machines; Increasing rates of urbanization and greater emphasis on manufacturing will spur greater energy use

• Demand for energy resources will grow by 6.88% per annum in 2014-2030

• Demand for food will also grow at 83% - for meat, 51% - for milk, 30% - for vegetables in 2014-2030

• To cope with these challenges and ensure sustainable development after 2030 resources should be managed more efficiently

• This could generate multiplier effects throughout the economy, thus contributing to job creation, income growth etc.

Demand for energy resources will grow almost 3 times (2015=100%)

100

271,3

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2030

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2030

Demand for food will increase (2015=100%) Extra burden on land and water resources

Main challenges and objectives for the future: Maintaining Effective Global Partnership to Facilitate Attainment

of The Development Goals After 2015

• While the main milestones on the MDGs have been achieved, focus now needs to be put on the new goals

• The main challenge is that these goals will have to be achieved in the context of declining external assistance in the future

• It is important to:

– Sustain access to and ensure effective use of financial resources;

– Improve access to markets, improve business climate to attract more investments;

– Ensure better access to intangible resources: knowledge, technologies, information, experiences.

MDG After 2015

Improved livelihoods and access to basic social services

+ More productive jobs, active involvement of various groups in economic & social activities

Development of energy and water supply infrastructure

+ Transition to a resource-efficient model of development

Access to basic social services

More focus on the quality of social services

Development goals after 2015 differ from MDGs This goals will need to be achieved in the context of declining amount of external assistance

0,40

0,36 0,35 0,35

1,90 1,70

1,53 1,60

0,32

0,33

0,34

0,35

0,36

0,37

0,38

0,39

0,40

0,41

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

1,40

1,60

1,80

2,00

2009 2010 2012 2013

Share of grants In GDP, %

Share of grants in the state budget, %

Grants as percentage of GDP and State budget, %

Findings

• The delicate balance between the goal of improving the well-being for various social groups and ensuring the basis for sustainable growth and development in the medium and long term, has been maintained so far.

• To attain the development goals after 2015, it is important to take into account new trends and challenges, that will identify development perspectives at the national and global levels.

• It is important to find optimal balances: between investment “now” and “tomorrow”; by state and non-state actors. These balances are not static but rather dynamic.

• There are no ready-made recipes. It is important to go beyond the conventional strategies and select institutions and instruments, that will work in the realities of the country.

• Development framework for the Post-2015 needs to form a basis for inclusive growth that will create opportunities to fulfill social rights of both current and future generations; will be sustained over time and broad based across sectors, groups, regions.

Thank you!