The energy future based in wind and solar energy?! Christian Breyer Professor for Solar Economy, Lappeenranta University of Technology Millennium Breakfast Meeting Aalto Design Factory Espoo, September 23, 2015
The energy future based in wind and solar energy?!
Christian BreyerProfessor for Solar Economy, Lappeenranta University of TechnologyMillennium Breakfast MeetingAalto Design FactoryEspoo, September 23, 2015
2 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
What is the Vision?
3 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
What is the key problem?
“Climate Change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.”
N. Stern, Economics of Climate Change, 2006
4 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
IPCC mitigation in energy sectors
Key insights:• GHG emissions in the power sector to be zero by 2050• ALL new investments MUST fulfill this requirement
source: IPCC, 2014. 5th AR – Synthesis Report
5 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
New installed RE capacities not fully on track
Key insights:• 50% of new capacities are RE• Gas plants can be used as bridge• Coal and nuclear(~30%) fully unsustainable
6 Fortum Strategy MeetingChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
New installed capacities on track (EU28, Nordic)
7 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
We have a dramatic subsidy problem
Key insights:• global energy subsidies are almost fully allocated for
fossil (and nuclear) fuels• fossil fuel subsidies are as large as global
expenditures for the health sector• RE would grow much faster if harmful fossil-nuclear
subsidies would be phased-out
8 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Capacity expectations till 2030 and 2040
PV ER Adv ER 2DS hi-Ren NPS 4502030 2839 GW 3725 GW 1799 GW 1721 GW 1927 GW 647 GW 856 GW2040 4988 GW 6678 GW 3687 GW 3199 GW 3277 GW 930 GW 1396 GW
Wind2030 2510 GW 3064 GW 1282 GW 1600 GW 982 GW 1288 GW2040 4316 GW 5892 GW 2033 GW 2150 GW 1321 GW 1873 GW
source: Greenpeace, BNEF, IEA
Key insights:• leading reports had been close to consensus for 2030 and 2040, but Greenpeace is now pushing• IEA WEO is laggng behind due to assuming wrong growth pattern
9 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
WEO key failure: linear vs logistic growthall new renewables (ex hydro) solar PV
Overview:• World Energy Outlook (WEO) is regularily
wrong with RE, since they are based on the wrong growth pattern (linear vs logistic growth)
• 3 phases of RE: negligible, not relevant, relevant but not enough
• 4th phase pending: RE is the solution• 4th phase means tremendous growth ahead• my number for 2030: about 18000 TWh RE gen
source: Metayer M., Breyer Ch., Fell H.-J., 2015. The projections for the future and quality in the past of the World Energy Outlook for solar PV and other Renewable Energy technologies, 31st EU PVSEC, Hamburg, September 14-18
download:www.researchgate.net
10 Fortum Strategy MeetingChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
What is the pathway?
source: Brunila A., 2012. Fortum – Power and heat company in the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics
Solar EconomySolar based production with high overall system efficiency
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Sun
Ocean
Traditionalenergy production
Exhaustible fuels that burden the environment
Coal GasOil
Advancedenergy productionEnergy efficient and/or
low-emission production
Nuclear today
Nucleartomorrow
CHP
CCS
Bio
Fortum’s compass -Energy is an enabler
Storage
Active ConsumerDemand
Response
Low
Effi
cien
cy
High
Effi
cien
cy
High Emissions Emission free
Interconnectors
Smart applications
11 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
What are the real low carbon investments?
source: Schneider M. and Froggatt A., 2014. The World Nuclear Industry Status Report
12 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Cost of ’cleantech’ solutions
source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option; Grubler A., 2010. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174
Key insights:� PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option� nuclear and coal-CCS is too expensive� nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies� high value added for PV-Wind due to higher
capacities needed
13 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Germany – 100% RE (power and heat sector)
source: Henning H.-M. and Palzer A., 2012. 100 % Renewables for Electricity and Heat – a Holistic Model for a Future German Energy System , 7th IRES, Berlin
PV share ~25%
14 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Finland - 100% RE (power, heat, mobility sectors)
PV share ~16% (of annualelectricity generation)
source: Child M., et al., 2015. The role of solar PV for 100% renewable energy supply in Finland, 31st EUPVSEC
Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Total annual costs: Sustainable Finland
Key insights:• Stranded investments in nuclear/ coal power stations not accounted (higher WACC?*)• Test scenarios have high level of investment• Reference scenarios have high level of fuel and CO₂ costs (risk of high CO2 price**)
* WACC 7% ► 15%BAU: + 3 b€New Nuclear: + 2 b€
** CO2 price 75 ► 150 €/tBAU: + 1.9 b€
rather likely according to Luderer G. et al., Environ.Res.Lett., 8, 034033, 2013
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2012 2020 2050Basic
100% RE
2050BasicLow
Nuclear
2050Basic
MediumNuclear
2050BasicNew
Nuclear
2050 LowBiomass100% RE
2050 LowBiomass
LowNuclear
2050 LowBiomassMediumNuclear
2050 LowBiomass
NewNuclear
2050 BAU
Tota
l ann
ual c
osts
(M€/a
)
Variable costs - other
Variable costs - CO₂
Variable costs - fuel
Fixed operation costs
Annualized investment costs
source: Child M. and Breyer Ch., 2015. Vision and Initial Feasibility Analysis of a Recarbonised Finnish Energy System, 17th Int. Conf. of the Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, June 11-12
North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% RE power supplyDmitrii Bogdanov ► [email protected]
MethodologyFull system
Renewable energy sources• PV ground-mounted (optimally tilted)• PV rooftop • Wind onshore• Hydro run-of-river• Hydro dam• Geothermal• CSP• Waste• Biogas• Biomass
Electricity transmission• node-internal AC transmission• interconnected by HVDC lines
Storage options• Batteries • Pumped hydro storages• Thermal energy storage, Power-to-Heat• Gas storage based on Power-to-Gas
• Water electrolysis• Methanation• CO2 from air• Gas storage
Energy Demand• Electricity• Water Desalination• Industrial Gas
download:www.researchgate.net
Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
South America – 100% RE (power and gas sector)
PV share ~40%
source: Barbosa L.S.N.S., et al., 2015. Complementarity of hydro, wind and solar power as a base for a 100% RE energy supply: South America as an example, Rio 15 –World Climate & Energy Event, Rio de Janeiro, September 4
download:www.researchgate.net
Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
North-East Asia – 100% RE (power and gas sector)
PV share ~42%
source: Bogdanov D. and Breyer Ch., 2015. North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy power supply: Distributed small-scale and centralized large-scale solar PV as a major energy source, 31st EUPVSEC
Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Israel – 100% RE (power sector)
PV share ~90%
source: Bogdanov D. and Breyer Ch., 2015. The Role of Solar Energy towards 100% Renewable Power Supply for Israel: Integrating Solar PV, Wind Energy, CSP and Storages, 19th Sede Boqer Symposium on Solar Electricity Production, February 23-25
download:www.researchgate.net
20 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Resources and Energy Demand
source: Perez R. and Perez M., 2009. A fundamental look on energy reserves for theplanet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50
Key insights:• no lack of energy
resouces• limited conventional
resources• solar and wind resources
need to be the majorpillars of a sustainableenergy supply
Remark:• conventional resources
might be lower thandepicted by Perez
21 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
source:
ETOGAS, 2013
Learning from Nature
photons-to-biomass biomass-to-fuel
Key insights:• processes well established• efficiency of photons-to-biomass is quite low• efficiency of photons-to-biomass-to fuel is even lower
22 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
A short history of the solar cell efficiency
source: NREL, 2014. Solar Efficiency Diagram
• broad variety of PV technologies
• continuous increase of efficiencies
• theoretical maximum at 86%
Energieeffizienz - PKW
0-100 km/h in 4,7 s; 261 kW; 88.000 €, 280 km/h max; 460 km Reichweite; 13,8 l/100km
Porsche - Verbrennungsmotor
0-100 km/h in 4,0 s; 185 kW, 63.000 €; 210 km/h max; 400 km Reichweite; 12 kWh/100km
energetisch Faktor 5PV-Breakeven in 4 Jahren
www.porsche.de
Tesla - Elektromotor
www.teslamotors.com
Kosten: 440 MJ; 16,50 €/100kmKosten: 90 MJ; 3,00 €/100km
CO2
Diagram of Syngas Conversion Processes
Source: P.L. Spath and D.C. Dayton, 2003. Preliminary Screening - Technical and Economic Assessment of Synthesis Gas to Fuels and Chemicals with Emphasis on the Potential for Biomass-Derived Syngas. NREL/TP-510-34929
Naphta
25 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
But do we know the long-term PV demand?The results of some recent studies might help …
26 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Focus on PV for the year 2050
• all reports acknowledge significant relevance of PV (≥ 5 TWp)• BUT, the variation in results (input) is high, despite of progressive/ RE-based scenarios• closer view to the key numbers might provide a valuable guideline
conservative in heat and mobilitysector
27 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Maximum (visionary) solar PV Market long-term
Key question:• What is the long-term maximum solar PV demand globally?
Assumptions:• global population: 10 billion people• energy consumption level: today’s EU28 average should guarantee a good standard of living• energy generation: primary energy demand supplied by power technologies, mainly wind energy and solar
energy, due to major constraints, like resources, costs, emissions and efficiency• energy demand: sectors power, heat and mobility use different forms of energy, based on electricity• efficiency of solar PV: doubling of system efficiency from ave 15% today to 30% (impact on area demand)• scenarios: breakthrough progress of batteries: Yes (PV share 40% of total) / No (PV share 25%)
28 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Alternative long-term approach beyond 2050key assumptions• based on IEA-WEO 2014• long-term global average TPED on EU level of today• world population stabilized at 10 bn people• share of solar PV between 25%-40%, depending on
battery breakthrough and CSP competitiveness• gain in PV system efficiency to 30% (area impact)• shift of non-power TPED to power (heat pumps, EV, RO
desalination, etc.: power-to-heat/gas/fuel/water)• no PE efficiency gain (gain in some sectors, but limiting
efficiencies in power-to-fuel)
key results• 58 - 93 TWp PV capacity in the long-term beyond 2050• no limitation in area demand (or other resources)• 8 - 9 doublings of capacity for learning curve• ~250 €/kWp target PV capex beyond 2050 (have in mind:
major capex reduction until 2030)• 12 €/MWh target LCOE for global ave yield• PV may become THE least cost energy source
source: Gerlach A., Breyer Ch., et al., 2015. Forecast of Long-Term PV Installations –Discussion of Scenarios ranging from IEA to the Solar Economy, 31st EU PVSEC
29 Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Global – 100% RE (all sectors) – Role of PV
source: Gerlach A., Breyer Ch., et al., 2015. Forecast of Long-Term PV Installations –Discussion of Scenarios ranging from IEA to the Solar Economy, 31st EU PVSEC
Key insights:• exponential growth of PV needed for some further decades• 2030 results inline with international institutions, BUT not 2040 onwards• highest absolute growth around the mid of this century• 40% solar PV share may be not the upper limit (North-East Asia, South-East Asia, Israel results)• techno-economic least cost solutions include large shares of both, distributed AND centralised PV
Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
New Business Cases: RE-PtG-LNG
source: Fasihi M., et al., 2015. Economics of global LNG trading based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants, 31st EUPVSEC
Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
New Business Cases: RE-based desalination
source: Caldera U., et al., 2015. Local cost of seawater RO desalination based on solar PV and wind energy: Economics, global demand and the impact of full load hours, 31st EUPVSEC
Overview:• clean water for all (and
nearly everywhere) is nowishful thinking
• water crisis is rather a managment failure than a techno-economic issue
download:www.researchgate.net
Energy Future based in wind and solar energyChristian Breyer ► [email protected]
Summary
• 100% Renewable Energy system is reachable!• zero fossil CO2 emissions by 2050 are not yet reflected in energy markets• dramatic high fossil fuel subsidies block RE market growth• international institutions see strong growth, except IEA WEO lacking behind• 100% RE scenarios understanding improves fast• the shift to power in the gas, desalination, heat and mobility sector will be driven by
higher supply of least cost solar PV and wind sites• 40% solar PV share for global energy supply may be realistic (with upside potential)• 58 – 93 TWp installed PV capacities in the long-term may be feasible• new business cases arise, such as RE-PtG-LNG or RE-desalination
Thanks for your attention …… and to the team!