Milk Production ISSN: 1949-1557 Released February 20, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). January Milk Production up 1.2 Percent Milk production in the 24 major States during January totaled 17.9 billion pounds, up 1.2 percent from January 2019. December revised production, at 17.5 billion pounds, was up 1.3 percent from December 2018. The December revision represented an increase of 82 million pounds or 0.5 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,031 pounds for January, 21 pounds above January 2019. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.82 million head, 16,000 head more than January 2019, and 5,000 head more than December 2019. 2019 Annual Milk Production up 0.4 Percent from 2018 The annual production of milk for the United States during 2019 was 218 billion pounds, 0.4 percent above 2018. Revisions to 2018 production decreased the annual total 7 million pounds. Revised 2019 production was up 60 million pounds from last month's publication. Annual total milk production has increased 13.0 percent from 2010. Production per cow in the United States averaged 23,391 pounds for 2019, 241 pounds above 2018. The average annual rate of milk production per cow has increased 10.6 percent from 2010. The average number of milk cows on farms in the United States during 2019 was 9.34 million head, down 0.7 percent from 2018. The average number of milk cows was revised up 4,000 head for 2019. The average annual number of milk cows has increased 2.3 percent from 2010.
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Milk Production
ISSN: 1949-1557
Released February 20, 2020, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department
of Agriculture (USDA).
January Milk Production up 1.2 Percent Milk production in the 24 major States during January totaled 17.9 billion pounds, up 1.2 percent from January 2019.
December revised production, at 17.5 billion pounds, was up 1.3 percent from December 2018. The December revision
represented an increase of 82 million pounds or 0.5 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.
Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,031 pounds for January, 21 pounds above January 2019.
The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.82 million head, 16,000 head more than January 2019,
and 5,000 head more than December 2019.
2019 Annual Milk Production up 0.4 Percent from 2018 The annual production of milk for the United States during 2019 was 218 billion pounds, 0.4 percent above 2018.
Revisions to 2018 production decreased the annual total 7 million pounds. Revised 2019 production was up 60 million
pounds from last month's publication. Annual total milk production has increased 13.0 percent from 2010.
Production per cow in the United States averaged 23,391 pounds for 2019, 241 pounds above 2018. The average annual
rate of milk production per cow has increased 10.6 percent from 2010.
The average number of milk cows on farms in the United States during 2019 was 9.34 million head, down 0.7 percent
from 2018. The average number of milk cows was revised up 4,000 head for 2019. The average annual number of milk
cows has increased 2.3 percent from 2010.
2 Milk Production (February 2020) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
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Milk Production (February 2020) 3 USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Contents
Milk Cows and Production by Quarter – United States: 2019-2020....................................................................................... 4
Milk Cows and Production by Month – 24 Selected States: 2019-2020 ................................................................................ 4
Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month – United States: 2019-2020 ....................................................................... 4
Milk Cows and Production – 24 Selected States: January 2019 and 2020 ............................................................................. 5
Monthly Milk Production – 24 Selected States....................................................................................................................... 5
Milk Cows and Production – 24 Selected States: December 2018 and 2019 ......................................................................... 6
Monthly Milk Cows – 24 Selected States ............................................................................................................................... 6
Milk Cows and Production – United States: 2010-2019 ......................................................................................................... 7
Milk Production – United States: 2010-2019 ......................................................................................................................... 7
Milk Cows and Production – States and United States: 2018 and 2019 ................................................................................. 8
Milk Cows – United States: 2010-2019 .................................................................................................................................. 9
Production per Cow – United States: 2010-2019 .................................................................................................................... 9
Milk Cows by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2018........................................................... 10
Milk Cows by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2019........................................................... 11
Milk Produced per Cow by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2018 ...................................... 12
Milk Produced per Cow by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2019 ...................................... 13
Milk Production by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2018 .................................................. 14
Milk Production by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2019 .................................................. 15
Milk Cows and Production by Quarter – States and United States: 2018............................................................................. 16
Milk Cows and Production by Quarter – States and United States: 2019............................................................................. 17
Licensed Dairy Herds – States and United States: 2018 and 2019 ....................................................................................... 18
Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates ............................................................................................................... 19
Information Contacts ............................................................................................................................................................ 20
4 Milk Production (February 2020) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Milk Cows and Production by Quarter – United States: 2019-2020 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
1 Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Cows and Production by Month – 24 Selected States: 2019-2020 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
January .............. February ............ March ................. April ................... May .................... June ................... July .................... August ............... September ......... October .............. November .......... December .......... Annual ...............
1 Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month – United States: 2019-2020 [May not add due to rounding. Blank data cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
January .............. February ............ March ................. April ................... May .................... June ................... July .................... August ............... September ......... October .............. November .......... December .......... Annual ...............
(D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. (NA) Not available. 1 Average number during year, excluding heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3 Other States includes Alaska and Hawaii.
Milk Production (February 2020) 9 USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
9,100
9,150
9,200
9,250
9,300
9,350
9,400
9,450
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Thousand head
2% Increase over the past 10-year period
Milk Cows – United States: 2010-2019
21,000
21,500
22,000
22,500
23,000
23,500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Pounds
11% Increase over the past 10-year period
Production per Cow – United States: 2010-2019
10 Milk Production (February 2020) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Milk Cows by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2018 [Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh]
Arizona ........................... California ........................ Colorado ......................... Florida ............................. Georgia ........................... Idaho ............................... Illinois .............................. Indiana ............................ Iowa ................................ Kansas ............................ Michigan ......................... Minnesota ....................... New Mexico .................... New York ........................ Ohio ................................ Oregon ............................ Pennsylvania .................. South Dakota .................. Texas .............................. Utah ................................ Vermont .......................... Virginia ............................ Washington ..................... Wisconsin ....................... 24-State Total ................. United States 1 ................
206 1,734
177 119 82
610 92
184 220 159
423 452 328 622 260 121 520 121 538 101
127 83
277 1,274
8,830
9,392
206 1,734
178 119 81
610 90
184 220 160
423 451 328 622 258 122 519 121 540 101
127 83
277 1,274
8,828
9,389
206 1,732
178 118 81
610 88
182 220 160
422 451 327 621 255 122 516 121 540 100
126 81
277 1,273
8,807
9,368
205 1,732
178 118 81
610 86
182 220 160
422 451 327 621 256 124 514 121 540 100
126 80
279 1,273
8,806
9,365
205 1,731
178 118 81
612 85
181 220 160
422 451 326 623 253 125 509 122 542 100
126 80
280 1,272
8,802
9,357
205 1,730
178 116 81
614 85
181 220 161
422 450 325 625 253 125 505 122 544 100
126 79
280 1,271
8,798
9,352
208 1,734
176 120 83
609 90
183 220 159
423 453 330 623 259 123 519 121 537 100
127 83
277 1,274
8,829
9,398
1 United States monthly estimates are derived by proportionally allocating the quarterly estimates using the 24-state monthly totals. 2 Average based on monthly totals.
Milk Production (February 2020) 11 USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Milk Cows by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2019 [Includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh]
Arizona ........................... California ........................ Colorado ......................... Florida ............................ Georgia .......................... Idaho .............................. Illinois ............................. Indiana ........................... Iowa ................................ Kansas ........................... Michigan ......................... Minnesota ....................... New Mexico .................... New York ........................ Ohio ................................ Oregon ........................... Pennsylvania .................. South Dakota .................. Texas ............................. Utah ................................ Vermont .......................... Virginia ........................... Washington .................... Wisconsin ....................... 24-State total .................. United States 1 ................
195 1,725
187 115 81
626 83
176 217 162
425 447 326 627 250 124 485 123 565 97
126 74
281 1,268
8,785
9,315
195 1,725
187 116 80
628 83
175 217 162
427 447 326 627 250 124 485 124 567 96
126 74
281 1,267
8,789
9,318
196 1,725
189 116 80
630 83
175 217 163
428 447 329 627 252 124 485 126 570 97
125 74
281 1,266
8,805
9,333
197 1,725
190 118 81
632 81
176 217 164
428 447 330 626 252 126 485 127 575 97
125 74
281 1,265
8,819
9,347
196 1,725
190 117 81
634 82
176 216 165
427 446 330 626 252 127 485 127 575 97
124 74
281 1,264
8,817
9,345
194 1,725
189 116 81
635 82
176 215 167
427 445 330 626 252 127 483 127 580 97
124 74
282 1,262
8,816
9,343
197 1,726
186 116 82
625 83
178 218 163
426 448 326 627 251 124 490 125 565 98
126 75
280 1,267
8,799
9,336
1 United States monthly estimates are derived by proportionally allocating the quarterly estimates using the 24-state monthly totals. 2 Average based on monthly totals.
12 Milk Production (February 2020) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Milk Produced per Cow by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2018 [Excludes milk sucked by calves]
1 United States monthly estimates are derived by proportionally allocating the quarterly estimates using the 24-state monthly totals. 2 Average per cow for the year.
Milk Production (February 2020) 13 USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Milk Produced per Cow by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2019 [Excludes milk sucked by calves]
1 United States monthly estimates are derived by proportionally allocating the quarterly estimates using the 24-state monthly totals. 2 Average per cow for the year.
14 Milk Production (February 2020) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Milk Production by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2018 [Excludes milk sucked by calves]
Arizona ........................... California ........................ Colorado ......................... Florida ............................. Georgia ........................... Idaho ............................... Illinois .............................. Indiana ............................ Iowa ................................ Kansas ............................ Michigan ......................... Minnesota ....................... New Mexico .................... New York ........................ Ohio ................................ Oregon ............................ Pennsylvania .................. South Dakota .................. Texas .............................. Utah ................................ Vermont .......................... Virginia ............................ Washington ..................... Wisconsin ....................... 24-State total .................. United States 1 ................
390 3,295
392 188 143
1,327 155 348 439 313
948 841 702
1,284 467 217 900 230
1,103 202
225 134 580
2,631
17,454
18,331
378 3,303
393 180 139
1,324 151 348 439 315
948 839 689
1,278 462 215 882 232
1,099 202
227 132 575
2,624
17,374
18,247
370 3,222
376 163 129
1,247 138 324 422 299
895 798 656
1,211 428 206 831 223
1,040 192
217 123 553
2,501
16,564
17,396
392 3,317
385 170 135
1,281 144 340 446 308
926 816 659
1,239 448 214 853 228
1,053 194
223 128 571
2,540
17,010
17,872
388 3,254
372 182 140
1,221 141 330 432 302
895 789 636
1,190 433 207 819 222
1,024 187
213 124 542
2,449
16,492
17,330
423 3,417
391 192 147
1,265 150 346 450 317
931 833 670
1,244 450 217 853 233
1,080 192
226 128 567
2,574
17,296
18,170
4,973 40,404 4,557 2,380 1,766
15,146 1,878 4,164 5,270 3,708
11,171 9,868 8,285
14,882 5,532 2,531
10,657 2,706
12,860 2,322
2,683 1,635 6,736
30,579
206,693
217,568
1 United States monthly estimates are derived by proportionally allocating the quarterly estimates using the 24-state monthly totals. 2 Total milk production for year.
Milk Production (February 2020) 15 USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Milk Production by Month – 24 Selected States, 24 State Total, and United States: 2019 [Excludes milk sucked by calves]
Arizona ........................... California ........................ Colorado ......................... Florida ............................ Georgia .......................... Idaho .............................. Illinois ............................. Indiana ........................... Iowa ................................ Kansas ........................... Michigan ......................... Minnesota ....................... New Mexico .................... New York ........................ Ohio ................................ Oregon ........................... Pennsylvania .................. South Dakota .................. Texas ............................. Utah ................................ Vermont .......................... Virginia ........................... Washington .................... Wisconsin ....................... 24-State total .................. United States 1 ................
378 3,390
412 192 143
1,371 140 331 432 319
958 847 694
1,285 455 224 832 235
1,167 195
228 119 596
2,599
17,542
18,375
363 3,321
411 181 135
1,372 139 333 441 317
967 847 680
1,285 458 221 829 241
1,151 192
227 118 587
2,623
17,439
18,267
358 3,209
399 164 131
1,298 133 321 427 311
929 809 668
1,235 437 211 800 235
1,137 187
219 115 563
2,500
16,796
17,595
391 3,347
410 179 139
1,324 137 338 443 324
954 825 673
1,261 451 220 827 241
1,170 189
224 120 569
2,543
17,299
18,135
390 3,269
396 184 142
1,268 139 321 428 317
907 789 650
1,214 436 209 808 232
1,124 180
214 119 542
2,421
16,699
17,506
408 3,407
413 202 152
1,324 148 338 447 336
950 832 683
1,268 456 215 843 244
1,209 185
224 126 564
2,543
17,517
18,365
4,769 40,564 4,807 2,346 1,771
15,631 1,748 4,073 5,291 3,819
11,385 9,931 8,187
15,122 5,425 2,592
10,108 2,810
13,850 2,262
2,697 1,490 6,783
30,601
208,062
218,382
1 United States monthly estimates are derived by proportionally allocating the quarterly estimates using the 24-state monthly totals. 2 Total milk production for year.
16 Milk Production (February 2020) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Milk Cows and Production by Quarter – States and United States: 2018 [May not add due to rounding]
Alabama .............. Alaska ................. Arizona ................ Arkansas ............. California ............. Colorado .............. Connecticut ......... Delaware ............. Florida ................. Georgia ............... Hawaii ................. Idaho ................... Illinois .................. Indiana ................ Iowa ..................... Kansas ................ Kentucky .............. Louisiana ............. Maine .................. Maryland .............. Massachusetts ..... Michigan .............. Minnesota ............ Mississippi ........... Missouri ............... Montana .............. Nebraska ............. Nevada ................ New Hampshire ... New Jersey .......... New Mexico ......... New York ............. North Carolina ..... North Dakota ....... Ohio ..................... Oklahoma ............ Oregon ................ Pennsylvania ....... Rhode Island ....... South Carolina ..... South Dakota ....... Tennessee ........... Texas .................. Utah ..................... Vermont ............... Virginia ................ Washington ......... West Virginia ....... Wisconsin ............ Wyoming ............. Other States 3 ....... United States .......
5.0 (D)
202.0 5.5
1,727.0 181.0 19.5 4.5
116.0 82.0
(D)
618.0 85.0
181.0 220.0 163.0 52.0 11.0 29.0 43.0
10.5
424.0 449.0
8.5 79.0 11.5 59.0 33.0 11.5 5.0
323.0 627.0 43.0 14.5
252.0 41.0
124.0 498.0
0.7 13.0
124.0 33.0
553.0 99.0
126.0 77.0
278.0 6.5
1,270.0 6.0
1.3
9,346.0
5.0 (D)
196.0 5.5
1,726.0 184.0 19.5 4.2
115.0 83.0
(D)
620.0 84.0
179.0 219.0 162.0 51.0 10.5 30.0 43.0
10.5
425.0 448.0
8.5 79.0 11.5 58.0 33.0 11.5 4.8
323.0 627.0 43.0 14.5
249.0 42.0
122.0 493.0
0.7 12.0
123.0 32.0
564.0 98.0
126.0 75.0
278.0 6.0
1,269.0 6.0
1.0
9,331.0
4.5 (D)
195.0 5.0
1,725.0 188.0 19.0 4.0
116.0 80.0
(D)
628.0 83.0
175.0 217.0 162.0 49.0 10.0 29.0 42.0
10.0
427.0 447.0
8.0 77.0 11.5 58.0 33.0 11.0 4.8
327.0 627.0 41.0 15.0
251.0 41.0
124.0 485.0
0.7 11.0
124.0 31.0
567.0 97.0
126.0 74.0
281.0 6.0
1,267.0 6.0
1.0
9,322.0
4.0 (D)
196.0 5.0
1,725.0 190.0 19.5 3.8
117.0 81.0
(D)
634.0 82.0
176.0 216.0 165.0 49.0 10.0 28.0 42.0
10.0
427.0 446.0
8.0 77.0 12.0 58.0 32.0 11.0 4.7
330.0 626.0 41.0 15.0
252.0 41.0
127.0 484.0
0.6 11.0
127.0 31.0
577.0 97.0
124.0 74.0
281.0 6.0
1,264.0 6.0
1.1
9,345.0
19.0 (D)
1,264.0 18.0
10,291.0 1,160.0
109.0 21.6
625.0 472.0
(D)
3,737.0 457.0
1,030.0 1,329.0
934.0 253.0 40.0
155.0 218.0
48.0
2,800.0 2,455.0
35.0 285.0 64.0
355.0 190.0 60.0 26.0
2,036.0 3,705.0
236.0 80.0
1,343.0 190.0 637.0
2,565.0 2.6
59.0
688.0 150.0
3,372.0 558.0 674.0 387.0
1,640.0 24.0
7,588.0 35.9
2.1
54,423.0
17.0 (D)
1,217.0 19.0
10,330.0 1,206.0
108.0 19.2
619.0 457.0
(D)
3,937.0 455.0
1,061.0 1,344.0
961.0 252.0 37.0
162.0 217.0
49.0
2,920.0 2,527.0
34.0 303.0 65.0
354.0 195.0 62.0 26.0
2,103.0 3,869.0
236.0 83.0
1,389.0 192.0 655.0
2,604.0 2.7
55.0
694.0 145.0
3,520.0 576.0 687.0 386.0
1,722.0 23.0
7,784.0 36.5
0.9
55,716.0
12.0 (D)
1,099.0 15.0
9,920.0 1,222.0
104.0 16.2
537.0 409.0
(D)
4,041.0 412.0 985.0
1,300.0 947.0 213.0 27.0
157.0 197.0
47.0
2,854.0 2,503.0
27.0 258.0 66.0
345.0 193.0 59.0 24.0
2,042.0 3,805.0
213.0 83.0
1,350.0 170.0 656.0
2,461.0 2.7
45.0
711.0 126.0
3,455.0 574.0 674.0 352.0
1,746.0 22.0
7,722.0 37.0
0.9
54,237.0
12.0 (D)
1,189.0 15.0
10,023.0 1,219.0
107.0 16.7
565.0 433.0
(D)
3,916.0 424.0 997.0
1,318.0 977.0 223.0 31.0
147.0 208.0
48.0
2,811.0 2,446.0
30.0 254.0 64.0
355.0 184.0 57.0 24.0
2,006.0 3,743.0
217.0 80.0
1,343.0 179.0 644.0
2,478.0 2.6
47.0
717.0 130.0
3,503.0 554.0 662.0 365.0
1,675.0 21.0
7,507.0 37.2
1.2
54,006.0
(D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations. 1 Quarterly average includes dry cows, excludes heifers not yet fresh. 2 Excludes milk sucked by calves. 3 Other States includes Alaska and Hawaii.
18 Milk Production (February 2020) USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Licensed Dairy Herds – States and United States: 2018 and 2019
Licensed dairy herds 1
2018 2019
(number) (number)
Alabama ............................................................................. Alaska ................................................................................. Arizona ............................................................................... Arkansas ............................................................................. California ............................................................................ Colorado ............................................................................. Connecticut ......................................................................... Delaware ............................................................................ Florida ................................................................................. Georgia ............................................................................... Hawaii ................................................................................. Idaho ................................................................................... Illinois .................................................................................. Indiana ................................................................................ Iowa .................................................................................... Kansas ................................................................................ Kentucky ............................................................................. Louisiana ............................................................................ Maine .................................................................................. Maryland ............................................................................. Massachusetts .................................................................... Michigan ............................................................................. Minnesota ........................................................................... Mississippi .......................................................................... Missouri .............................................................................. Montana .............................................................................. Nebraska ............................................................................ Nevada ............................................................................... New Hampshire .................................................................. New Jersey ......................................................................... New Mexico ........................................................................ New York ............................................................................ North Carolina ..................................................................... North Dakota ....................................................................... Ohio .................................................................................... Oklahoma ........................................................................... Oregon ................................................................................ Pennsylvania ...................................................................... Rhode Island ....................................................................... South Carolina .................................................................... South Dakota ...................................................................... Tennessee .......................................................................... Texas .................................................................................. Utah .................................................................................... Vermont .............................................................................. Virginia ................................................................................ Washington ......................................................................... West Virginia ....................................................................... Wisconsin ........................................................................... Wyoming ............................................................................. United States ......................................................................
30 1
100 50
1,335 120 110 25 95
160
2 480 600 965
1,120 280 540 90
230 380
130
1,520 2,980
65 920 60
155 20
100 50
150
4,190 180 80
2,200 150 220
6,200 10 50
215 250 400 180 730 565 410 65
8,500 10
37,468
25 1
90 40
1,255 120 100 20 90
140
1 460 575 865
1,015 270 480 85
220 350
120
1,330 2,730
60 800 55
140 20
100 45
140
3,880 150 65
1,940 140 220
5,730 10 40
195 200 380 160 680 505 370 50
7,720 10
34,187
1 Average number of dairy farms licensed to sell milk, based on counts collected from State and other regulatory agencies.
Milk Production (February 2020) 19 USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were obtained from a sample of producers.
Individual States maintain a list of all known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use all
known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as possible. Generally, all large producers and a
sample of small producers are included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end of the month to
obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail
response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative data to estimate milk production. This eliminates
duplication of data gathering by different government agencies such as Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) Dairy
Market News. Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January Cattle Survey.
Estimation Procedures: Regional Field Offices prepare these estimates by using a combination of survey indications,
historic trends, and any available administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the Agricultural Statistics
Board for reasonableness.
Revision Policy: Milk production, milk per cow, and number of milk cows are subject to revision the following month
after initial publication for monthly States or the following quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, administrative data
from Federal Market Orders, State Departments of Agriculture, or other sources are the main basis for revisions.
However, administrative data for all States may not be available in time for these revisions. Estimates are again subject to
revisions in February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that additional changes are necessary,
a third revision is possible in February the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-year
Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that date.
Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the sample, survey estimates are subject to
sampling variability. Survey results are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and mistakes
in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of these errors cannot be measured directly. They are
minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review of all reported data
for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for
selected items in the table below. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past performance and is
computed using the differences between first and final estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 24 State milk
production estimates over the past 24 months is 0.2 percent. This means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the final estimate
will not be above or below the current estimate of 17.9 billion pounds by more than 0.2 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10
that the difference will not exceed 0.3 percent.
Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates [Based on data for the past 24 months]