Migration Policy and Constitutional Change in Scotland

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Migration Policy and Constitutional Change in Scotland

David Bell (Stirling)

Allan Findlay (St Andrews)

David McCollum (St Andrews)

Scott Tindal (St Andrews)

Robert Wright (Strathclyde)

Outline

• Migration policy and constitutional change in Scotland – an introduction

• Constitutional change and migration policies – lessons from the research literature

• Migration to and from Scotland

• Immigrant characteristics - a comparative analysis of Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland

• Scottish public attitudes to immigration

• Scottish employers’ attitudes to immigration

• Sub-national migration policies – the Quebec case

• Policy implications for Scotland

• Conclusions

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Migration policy and constitutional change in Scotland – an introduction

Introduction

•Constitutional change debates on immigration policy tend to be artificially polarised. Reality is more nuanced.

•Much can be learned from the experience of other small countries and from attempts at sub-national immigration policy

•Our objectives and our evidence

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Constitutional change and migration policies: lessons from the research literature

• Tailoring an immigration policy for Scotland matters regardless of the outcome of the referendum

• Immigration policies of small nations are nearly always strongly shaped by those of larger neighbours

• A devolved federalism model offers one route to shaping migration

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Our evidence base

• Scottish Chambers of Commerce Survey (2013) of over 700 employers

• In-depth interviews with 87 employers and recruitment agencies (2010/2011)

• Analysis of the British & Scottish Social Attitudes Surveys

• Analysis of the Annual Population Survey (2012) and the Labour Force Survey (2001-2013)

• Recent field research in Latvia and Quebec

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Migration to and from Scotland

Figure 1: Estimated total (internal and international) net migration, Scotland 1951-2011

Figure 2: Proportion of usual residents that are foreign born, 2011

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Immigrant characteristics

Comparing Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland

Shares of Resident Population by Country of Birth

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Irish residents by country of birth

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Wage rates (£ per hour)

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Average age of employees

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Proportion employed with degrees

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Public attitudes towards migration

• Scotland: relatively welcoming views…

• However… – ⅓ prejudiced against people of other races – ⅓ believe ethnic minorities take jobs – ½ believe ethnic minorities pose threat to Scotland’s identity

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Indicators of attitudes towards migration in 2011, by UK Government Office Region.

Source: Authors analysis of British Social Attitudes Survey, 2011

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1015202530354045

%

Agree strongly that migration to Britain should be stopped, even if it hurts the economy

The settlement of migrants in the last 10 years has been extremely bad for Britain

Very or a little prejudiced against people of other races

Employer attitudes towards migration

• Positive perceptions of migrants: work ethic, flexibility, skills & competence

• Constitutional change debate…– Top business concerns;

• Taxes, status in EU & currency (c. ⅔ of respondents) • Also: Labour regulation and visa & immigration law (c. ⅓ of respondents)

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Importance of visa & immigration laws

– Key sectors: Health & social care and hospitality & tourism

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Employer perspectives: key issues

• Openness of immigration policies (political considerations) “Immigration is a massively underestimated issue of importance in Scotland. I

assume it doesn’t get a lot of political credence because it’s not really popular to stand up and say: ‘we need lots more immigrants’, but actually Scotland does need lots more immigrants”

Inter-business organisation• Freedom of movement of labour (EU status, Schengen, CTA) “If my EU staff weren’t allowed to come and work in Scotland through EU regulation

then that would be a big no-no” Recruitment firm, hospitality

• Ability to attract talent (labour regulations, economy)

“How easy would it be for workers to go from Scotland to England and vice versa to work, just now it’s the same taxation system etc but…?”

Agricultural business“If any post referendum outcome limited freedom of movement, then that would be a

risk because we are so dependent on the freedom of movement of people… and that constant throughput is what keeps universities so skilled and stocked with talented people” .

Education sector representative

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Sub-national migration policies: the Quebec case

• Maximum points available under the Canada and Quebec immigration systems

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Inter-provincial migration rates

• Foreign-born versus native-born Canadians

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Conclusions: Policy implications for Scotland 1) Moving towards a migration policy for Scotland is

desirable, regardless of the outcome of the referendum

2) Major challenges in shaping a Scottish immigration policy include:

a) Scotland is a small labour market influenced/dominated by its nearest neighbour

b) Other small nations/sub-national areas tend to align their immigration policies in a way that accommodates larger neighbours. In Scotland’s case shaping influences would probably include the desire to :

i) remain in the British Isles free travel area

ii) maintain easy exchanges of labour with England (often involving intra-company moves), and

iii) remain in the sterling currency area

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