MIGRATION AGE PATTERNS: CAUSE-SPECIFIC PROFILES (1979)

8/3/2019 MIGRATION AGE PATTERNS: CAUSE-SPECIFIC PROFILES (1979)

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NOT FOR QUOTATIONWITHOUT PERMISSIONOF THE AUTHOR

MIGRATION AGE PATTERNS11. CAUSE-SPECIFIC PROFILES

Andrei RogersLuis 3. Castro

August 1979WP-79-65

Working Papers are interim reports on work of theInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysisand have received only limited review. Views oropinions expressed herein do not necessarily repre-sent those of the Institute or of its National MemberOrganizations.INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSISA-2361 Laxenburg, Austria


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D e c l in i n g r a t e s o f n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n gro wt h, c o n t i n u i n gd i f f e r e n t i a l r a t e s o f r e g io n a l economic a c t i v i t y , and s h i f t s i nt h e m i g ra t io n p a t t e r n s o f p e op le and jo bs a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i ce m p i r i c a l a s p e c t s o f many d e ve l op e d c o u n t r i e s . I n s e v e r a li n s t a n c e s , t h e y h av e combined t o b r i n g a b ou t a r e l a t i v e ( an di n some c a s e s a b s o l u t e ) p o p u l a t i o n d e c l i n e o f h i g h l y u r b a n i ze da r e a s , e . g . , New York, Tokyo, and Stockholm. I n o t h e r c .a ses ,t h e y ha v e b r o u g h t a b o u t r a p i d m e t r o p o l i t a n g ro w th , e . g . , H ou st on ,Miami, and Moscow.The o b j e c t i v e of t h e Urban Chanqe Task i n IIASA's HumanS e t t l e m e n t s a nd S e r v i c e s A r ea i s t o b r i n g t o g e t h e r a nd s y n t h e s i z ea v a i l a b l e e m p i r i c a l and t h e o r e t i c a l i n f o r m at i o n on t h e p r i n c i p a lde te rmin ant s - and consequences of such urban growth and de c l in e .Th i s pape r i s t h e s ec on d o f f i v e t o f o cu s on m i g r a t i o n a g ep a t t e r n s i n n a t i o n a l p o p ul at io n s. I t draws i t s d a t a f rom a l a r g ed a t a bank o n m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s a ss em bl ed a t IIASA a s p a r t o f t h ee a r l i e r M i g r a t i o n , hich was fo rm al ly con-c l u d e d i n 1978. The f i r s t p ap er i n t h i s ser ies d e a l t w i t h t h em a th e ma t ic al d e s c r i p t i o n o f o b se rv e d m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s , t h ea n a l y s i s o f t h e i r a g e p r o f i l e s and t h e s tu d y of 'h o w t h o s e pr o-

f i l e s a r e i n f l u e n c e d by t h e a g e c o mp o si ti o n of t h e p o p u l a t i o ni n t h e r e g io n o f o r i g i n . T h is p ap er c o nt in u es t h e e a r l i e ra n a l y s i s b y ex am in in g t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f d i f f e r e n t c au se -s p e c i f i c mi gr at io n age p r o f i l e s t o v a r i a t i o n s i n a g g re g at e age-s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n r a t e s . S ub se qu en t p a p e r s w i l l d e a l w i th ac o m p a ra t iv e a n a l y s i s o f t h e l a r g e d a t a b an k on m i g r a t i o n s ch ed -u l e s , a st u d y o f s t a t u s - s p e c i f i c m i g r at i o n a ge p r o f i l e s , an d a ni n v e s t i g a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e methods f o r d e ve l o p in g model s c he d-u l e s f o r i n f e r r i n g m ig r a ti o n f lo w s on t h e b a s i s o f i n a c c u r a t e o ri n a d e q u a t e d a t a .

A l i s t o f r e l a t e d p u b l i c a t i o n s i n t h e Urban Change S e r i e sa pp ea rs a t t h e end o f t h i s pa pe r.Andrei RogersChairmanHuman Settlementsand Se rv i c e s Area


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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The d a t a u sed i n t h i s p a p er w e r e c o l l e c t e d a s p a r t of ac om p ar at iv e m i g r a t i o n a nd s e t t l e m e n t s t u d y c o nd u ct ed a t t h eI n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A pp li ed S ystem s A n a ly s is ( I I A S A ) .The a u t h o r s g r a t e f u l l y ac kn ow le dg e t h e ge n er o u s p r o v i s i o n o fd e t a i l e d C z ec ho s lo v ak ia n d a t a by K a r e l ~ i i h n l f t h e D ep art me nto f G eography a t C h a r l e s U n i v e r s i t y i n P ra g ue . W e a r e a l s og r a t e f u l f o r t h e o pp o r t u ni t y t o d i s c u s s t h e s u b j e c t of t h i sp a p e r w i t h N ath an K e y f i t z who c o n t r i b u t e d a v a l u a b l e s u g g e s t i o n .


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ABSTRACT

This paper seeks to illuminate the role played by variousreasons for migration in accounting for observed-variations ofage-specific migration rates. The focus is on the levels andage profiles of different cause-specific migration schedulesand on their contribution to aggregate migration age curvesthat change over time and space.


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CONTENTS

3 . INTRODUCTION, 12. MIGRATION BY CAUSE, 23 - DESCRIPTION: CAUSE-SPECIFIC AGE PROFILES, 74. ANALYSIS: MODEL SCHEDULES, 195. SYNTHESIS: SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS, 286. CONCLUSION, 3References, 33Appendices, 35


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MIGRATION AGE PATTERNS:11. CAUSE-SPECIFIC PROFILESAndrei Rogers, Luis J. Castro

INTRODUCTIONMortality studies have shown that the age pattern of

deaths varies systematically with level. For example, as theexpectation of life at birth increases, the largest absolutedeclines generally occur at ages below 5 and above 65. This isa consequence of the dramatic reduction in the contributionto overall deaths made by infectious diseases, which have aU-shaped age profile. Are there analogous systematic varia-tions in migration age patterns? Does the age pattern of mig-ration vary with level? For example, if divorce is a reasonfor migration, and if the level of migration and the number ofdivorces per capita both increase with economic development,should one then expect a particular shift in the aggregatemigration age profile?

Sam Preston (1976, p. 109) points out that "...roughlyhalf of the variance in age-curves of mortality at a particularmortality level can be accounted for by variance in relativeimportance of 6-7 cause of death categories among populationsat that level .. t suggests that causes of death have substantialvalue in accounting for disparities in age patterns in mortality."Can the same be said of disparities in age patterns of migration?


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This paper seeks to illuminate the role played by variousreasons for migration in accounting for observed variations ofage-specific migration rates. The focus is on the levels andage profiles of different 'reason-specific migration schedulesand on their contribution to aggregate migration age curves andtheir changes over time and space. Because we follow the "mor-tality" approach in decomposing aggregate migration schedules,we refer to reasons as causes. In a forthcoming paper, however,we shall.focus instead on the "fertilityn approach of analyzingsuch schedules, adopting a decompositfon by status instead of bycause.

MIGRATION BY CAUSEWhy people move is a question that needs to be considered

within the context of (1) those differentiating characteristicsof potential migrants that condition receptivity to migration,and (2) those differentiating environmental factors that stimu-late migration from one community to another. Nevertheless,insights into motivations for migration can be developed simplyby asking people why they moved. This approach has been adopted,for example, in nationwide surveys conducted by the U.S. CensusBureau (Long and Hansen, 1979) and by national migration re-gisters maintained in such countries as Czechoslovakia (Kiihnl,1978).

Studies of reported causes for internal migration are sub-ject to a number of serious limitations. First, usually onlythe "main" cause is tabulated and examined; yet multiple inter-dependent causes underlie migration behavior. Second, the num-ber of alternative causes listed in migration questionnairestypically are broad aggregations of a much wider range of causesand therefore may inadequately reflect the true importance ofmotivations connected with migration. Finally, problems arisewhen the causes are not separately classified for the initiatorsof migration (e.g., household heads) and for their dependents(e.g., children). In short, reported causes of migration oftenare mutually interdependent, usually insufficient in number, andgenerally not linked directly to the true decisionmaker. However,


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an alo go us l i m i t a t i o n s a l s o a pp ea r i n s t u d i e s of m o r t a l i t y b yc a u se , w i th o ut p r e s e n t i n g i n s u p e r a b l e o b s t a c l e s f o r t h e g e ne ra -t i o n o f i n s i g h t s i n t h a t a r e a o f dem ographic r e s e a r ch :

" Ca us es a r e u n do u b te d ly r e c o r d e d w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l ei n a cc u r ac y an d i n t e r p o p u l a t i o n i n c o m p a r a b i l i t y , and t h e s ep ro bl em s h av e d i s co u r a g e d t h e e x p l o i t a t i o n of c a us e -o f -d e a t h s t a t i s t i c s . But dem og raph ic d a t a a r e n e ve r p e r f e c t -l y a c c u r a t e , and t h e ch o ic e i s betwe en n e g le c t in g the ma l t o g e t h e r a nd p ro du ci ng q u a l i f i e d s t a t e m e n t s a b ou t t h et e n d e n c i e s t h e y s u g g e s t . " ( P r e s t o n , 1 97 6, p . 2 )Ta b le l.A g i ve s t h e pe r c e n t o f house hold he ads moving f o r

e a c h o f f i v e c a u se s i n t h e U.S. a nd i n Hunga ry . These d a t a con -f i r m t h a t it i s a g r e a t o v e r s im p l i f i c a t i o n t o e x p l a i n m i g r at i o ns o l e l y i n t e r m s o f economic mo ti va t i on s. Although employmentr e a s o n s ac c ou n t f o r ab o u t a h a l f o f t h e r ec o r de d r e a so n s f o rmoving by househ old head s , ed uc a t io n , mar r iag e , hous in g ando t h e r r e as o n s a c c ou n t f o r t h e o t h e r h a l f . M oreo ver, t h e d a t ai n d i c a t e t h a t i n H ung ary eco no mi c m o t i v a t i o n s h av e b ee n d e c l i n -i n g i n r e l a t i v e i mp or ta nc e o ve r t i m e .

T ab le l .B p r e s e n t s c om pa rab le d a t a f o r t o t a l p e rs o n s m i -g r a t i n g , i n c l u d i n g t h e h ou se ho ld h ea d. Only 36 p e r c e n t o f t o t a lm i g r a n t s w e r e house ho ld he a ds i n th e U.S. su rv e y ; i n Hungary t h ec o r r e spond ing pe r c e n ta g e r a nge d f rom 37 p e r c e n t i n 1958 t o 45p e r c e n t i n 1 968 . The d a t a f o r C z ec h os l ov a ki a do n o t d i s t i n g u i s hbetween household heads and th e i r accompanying dependen ts .

H ou sin g r e a s o n s a c c ou n t e d f o r o v e r 40 p e r c e n t o f a l l m i -g ra t i o n between communit ie s (communes) i n Czechos lo vakia i n 1973;t h i s t o t a l i s a b o u t t h r e e t i m e s a s h i g h a s Hu ng ar y' s a nd f i v et i m e s a s h i g h a s t h e U.S. f i g u r e . D at a f o r t h e U .S., h ow ev er ,r e f e r t o i n t e r s t a t e m i g r a t i o n , and one would e x p e c t ho u si ngr ea s on s t o d e c l i n e i n i mp or ta nc e r e l a t i v e t o econom ic r e a s o nsi n m ig r a ti o n s o v e r s u c h d i s t a n c e s .

L e s s t h a n 30 p e r c e n t o f t o t a l i n t e r n a l m i g r at i o n i n Czecho-s l o v a k i a was a t t r i b u t e d t o economic c a u se s . T h i s r e l a t i v e l y l ows h ar e o f t h e t o t a l i s somewhat s u r p r i s i n g a nd a p p a r e n t l y r e f l e c t sa l e v e l i n g o f r e g i o n a l e conomic d i f f e r e n c e s :


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" . . . f o r t h e m ajo r p a r t , it i s t h e outcom e o f s p e c i f i cCzechosl ovak co nd i t i ons : I n r e ce n t ye a r s , devel opment i nt h e whole C ze ch os lo va k S o c i a l i s t R e pu b li c, b u t p a r t i c u l a r l yi n t h e Czech S o c i a l i s t ~ e p u b l i c ,was c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a re -l a t i v e l y b a la n ce d t e r r i t o r i a l developm ent of p r o d u c t iv ef o r c e s , a cco mp an ie d b y a l e v e l l i n g - o u t o f r e g i o n a l d i f f e r -e n c e s i n e co nom ic an d income s t r u c t u r e a nd i n t h e t r a i n i n grequ i r ement s o f av a i l a b l e j obs ." (Kii hn l, 1978 , p . 4 )Table 2 shows t h a t t h e c au s e s t r u c t u r e o f m i g r a t i o n v a r i e s

w i t h m i g r a t i o n d i s t a n c e . F o r e xa mp le , t h e two p r i n c i p a l c a u s e sof m igr a t i on i n t h e Czech Republ ic , employment and hou s ing , ex-h i b i t o p p o s i t e a s s o c i a t i o n s w i t h m i g ra t io n d i s t a n c e . * Theym i r r o r t h e s i m i l a r i n v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p shown i n t h e U.S. andHungar ian da ta s e t o u t e a r l i e r i n Table 1.A, w h i c h r e f l e c tt h e commonly obse rved tendency o f sh or t - d i s t an ce mi gra t i o n t o bepr i m ar i l y mot i va t ed by hous i ng r ea so ns and l ong -d i s t ance migra -t i o n by employment r ea so ns . For a s Hoover (1971) p o i n t s ou t i na s t ud y of U.S. d at a :

" . . . t h o se men who onl y moved w i t h in t h e same countywere p r ed o m in a nt ly i n f l u e n c e d by h ou s i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n s .S i nc e a l l o f a co un ty i s g e n e r a l l y r e ga rd e d a s b e i n g i na s i n g l e l a bo r marke t o r commuting r ange , j ob changes a r er e l a t e d o n l y t o a m in or e x t e n t w i th i n t r a c o u n t y moves:most such movers a r e no t chang i ng j obs .For t h os e who moved t o a d i f f e r e n t coun t y... h ep i c t u r e i s q u i t e d i f f e r e n t , w i t h employm ent ch a ng e s ( i n -c l u di n g e n t r y t o o r e x i t from m i l i t a r y s e r v i c e ) emergin ga s t h e m ajo r r e as o n s f o r m ig ra t i ng . T h is r e f l e c t s t h ef a c t t h a t a n i n t e r c o u n t y m i g ra t i on g e n e r a l l y i n v o l v ess h i f t i n g t o a d i f f e r e n t l a b o r m a rk et beyond t h e commut-in g range f o r t h e former job . " (Hoover, 1971, p . 169)

M i gr at io n c a u s es a r e r e l a t e d t o a p e r s o n ' s a ge and s e x .For e xa mp le , m i g r a t i o n m o t i v a t e d by h e a l t h r e a s o n s i s a phenom-enon c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f o l d p e r s o n s , w he re as e d u c a t i o n - r e l a t e dm i g r a t i o n i s predomi nan t l y a s so c i a t ed wi t h young peop l e . Wivest e n d t o b e y ou ng er t h a n t h e i r hu sb an ds ; t h e r e f o r e t h e m i g r a t i o na ge p r o f i l e o f f em al e m i g r a t i o n p ea ks a t an e a r l i e r a g e t h a n t h ec o rr es p on d in g p r o f i l e f o r m al es . Thus, i n o r d e r t o un d er s ta n db e t t e r why pe cp le move, i t i s i m p o rt a n t t o d i s a g g r e g a t e c a us e -s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n d a t a by a g e a nd s e x.* Th ere a r e a d oze n a d m i n i s t r a t i v e r e g i o n s i n C z e c ho s lo v ak i a:e i g h t i n t h e Czech R e p u b li c a nd f o u r i n t h e S lo v ak R e p ub l ic .The na t ion i s c o mp r is e d o f a b o u t 100 d i s t r i c t s an d a p p r ox i -ma tel y 10,000 communit ies (communes).


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Table 2. Mi gra t i on by c a u s e a n d d i s t a n c e :Czech Republ ic , 1966-1973

S o u r c e : ~ i i h n l(19781, p . 7.

Di s t ance

Mi gra t i onbetweenr e g i o n s

Mi gra t i onbetweend i s t r i c t sw i t h i nr e g i o n s

Mi gra t i onbetweencommuni-t i e sw i t h i nd i s t r i c t s

Reasons: 1 - change of employment 6 - d i v o r c e2 - moving c l o s e r t o p l a c e 7 - hous i ngof work 8 - o t h e r3 - e d u c a t i o n 9 - unknown4 - h e a l t h5 - m a r r i a g e

Year

1967196919711973

1967196919711973

3967196919711973

Causes1

301628,426,424,4

23,321,219,116,8

12,29,58,77,6

I

6,35,66,O5,7

8,17,47,36,6

7,96,86,l5,9

5,25,O5,25,6

4,44,O4,24,4

4,54,83,84,5

2 3 40,91,51,31,4

0,60,60,60,6

0,20,20,20,2

513,515,313,615,5

13,O16,O15,217,5

13,118,416,617,9

62,O3,O2,93,4

2,13,13,O3,3

1,72,72,62,8

736,037,039,138,3

43,643,945,245,4

55,854,356,555,4

84,34,15,45,7

4,O3,85,55,4

3,93,75,35,7

1,20,10,10,O

0,90,O0,10,0

0,70,10,20,O

9 T o t a l100,O100,O100,O100,O

100,O100,O100,O100,O

100,O100,O100,O100,O


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T able 3 i l l u s t r a t e s t y p i c a l age and se x d i f f e r e n t i a l s i nm i g ra t io n -b y -c a us e d a t a . E x ce pt f o r h o u s in g r e a s o n s i n Hungary,most moves a t t r i b u t a b l e t o e ac h c a u s e o cc u r b e f o r e t h e a ge of40. Only h e a l t h - and h o u s i n g - r e l a t e d m i g r a t i o n s o c c u r i n s i g n i -f i c a n t p e rc e nt ag e s a t o l d e r a ge s. F i n a l l y , a ge c o n c e n t r a t i o n i sm o s t p ro no un ce d i n m i g r a t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h m a r r i a g e (60 t o 80per cen t between th e ages of 20 and 30) and ed uc a t io n ( 94 t o 97pe r cen t be tween t h e ages of 16 and 30 ) .

DESCRIPTION: CAUSE-SPECIFICAGE PROFILES

I f t h e a ge p a t t e r n of m i g r a t io n i s i n f l u e n c e d b y i t s cause -o f -m i gr at i on s t r u c t u r e t h e n it s ho ul d be p o s si b l e t o a t t r i b u t ed i f f e r e n c e s i n a g e p a t t e r n s o f m i g r at i o n i n two o r more p op ul a-t i o n s , a t l e a s t p a r t i a l l y , t o d i f f e r e n c es i n t h e i r c au s e s t r u c -t u r e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , d e t a i l e d a g e - s p e c i f i c d a t a on m i g r a t i o n byc a u s e a r e e x ce e d in g l y s c a r c e , and w e h ave b een a b l e t o f i n d o n l yo ne s o u r c e f o r t h i s s t u d y : t h e C ze ch o sl ov ak ia n m i g r a t i o n r e g i s -t e r . *

F i g u re 1 d i s p l a y s h i st o gr am s and t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d c u b i cs p l i n e i n t e r p o l a t i o n s (M cN eil, T r u s s e l l , and T u r n er , 1 97 7) f o ra g e - s p e c i f i c m ale a nd f e ma le m i g r a t i o n r a t e s i n C z e ch o s l o va k i a.F i g u r e 2 p r e s e n t s t h e ag e - s p e c i fi c m i g r at i o n c au s e s t r u c t u r e st h a t u n d e r l i e t h e s e r a t e s . F or e a s e o f v i s u a l co mparison a l la ge p r o f i l e s a r e s c a l e d t o sum t o a u n i t a r e a u nd er t h e c u rv e( i . e . , t o e x h i b i t a g r o s s mi gr ap ro du ct io n r a t e , GMR, o f u n i t y ) .

The ag e p r o f i l e s r e v e a l t h a t t h e ca u s es of m i g r a t i o n v a rys u b s t a n t i a l l y i n ag e p a t t e r n . Of t h e e i g h t c au se s i l l u s t r a t e d ,t h e a g e p r o f i l e o f h ou si ng r e a s on s m i r r o r s m ost c l o s e l y t h a t o ft h e a g g r eg a t e m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e , e x h i b i t i n g r o u gh l y t h e same

* I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of m i g r a t i o n c au s e s h a s been a p a r t o f t h e r eg u-l a r i n t e r n a l m i g r at i o n r e g i s t e r o f C ze ch os lo va ki a s i n c e 1966.The d a t a a r e ba s ed o n r e s p o n s e s g i v e n by m i g r a n t s a t t h e t i m et h a t t h ey n o t i f y l o c a l a u t h o r i t i e s o f t h e i r change o f a d d re s s .D ep en de nt s a r e n o t d i s t i n g u i s h e d fro m h o us e ho l d h e a d s i n t h e s ed a t a .


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Tab le 3. Age a n d S e x D i f f e r e n t i a l s i n M i qr at io n -b y -C a u seP a t t e r n s : H u n g a r y , 1 9 5 8 a n d C z e c h o s l o v a k i a , 1 9 7 3

3 . A Males

3 .B Females

Totdl

100,O100,O1 0 0 ~ 0100,O100,O100,O100,O100,O100,O100,O100,O100,O

Sources: Compton ( 1 9 7 1 ) pp. 9 0 - 9 1 a n d C z e c h o s l a v a k i a nF ed e r al S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e ( 1 9 7 4 ) . Th e m ig r a t io no f t h o s e less t h a n 1 6 y e a r s o f a g e i s h e r e a s s u m edt o b e d e p e nd e n t m i g r a t io n . ,

60+2,81,O2,41,2-

0,233,754,9

1,70,9

18,49,s

50-597114,76,34 120130 12

18,69,12 18114

12,4414

40-49111815,1

.101411,l015110

18,48144163 r 2

12,78 15

20-2944,848,852,961,226,834,615,511,959,s69,127,852,6

16-1920,812,s15,O12,970,162,8

4 t 22,9

24,822,3

6,610,8

Change ofemploymentClose r t op l a c e o fworkEd u ca t io n

H e a l t h

M ar r i ag e

Housing

30-39261823,128,218,2

21441 1

17,2911

14,O8 19

23,417,s

HuCzHuCzHuCzHuCzHUczHuCz

20-29411748,247,O58,328,O53,615,O13,273,O81,827,153,O

30-3918,722,o19,414,8215112

15,25139164 r 7

18,612,3

16-199187,95,77,O

68,840,9

2155133,93,86107,1

Change ofemploymentCloser t op l a c e o fworkEd u ca t io n

H e a l t h

Mar r iage

Housing

HUCzHUCZ

HUCZHUCZHUCZHUCZ

Totdl

100,O100,o100,O100,O100,O100,Ol00,O100,O100,O100,O100,O100,O

40-49818

12,27 127140130 t 89,441 53 1.3213

171 1

50-594183,24,O2 t 8012O,6

17,6811210110

12,O516

60+2,11,31,50,90110,O

38,267,3

0,8O,6

24,O11,6


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1. Change of employment. 2. Moving closer to place of work.

3. Education 4. HealthFigure 2. Observed cause-specific migration rates:Czechoslovakia, males and females, 1973.


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5 . Marriage 6 . Divorce

O + ' : . : : : : : : : : : ! : : : l o l .---+ : . : : : : : : : . : I1 0 10 lo 40 W b0 10 ma 0 1 0 2 0 lo 4 9 50 6 0 70 007 . Bousing 8 . Other (plus Divorce)Figure 2 . Observed cau se- spe ci f ic migration ra te s:Czechoslovakia, males and females, 1 9 7 3 ,continued.


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f o ur peaks: a t i n fa n c y , d u r i n g t h e e a r l y l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a -t i o n ye a r s , a t r e t i re m e n t , and du r i ng t h e o l d e s t a ge i n t e r v a l .M a r ri a ge an d e d u c a t i o n r e a s o n s , o n t h e o t h e r h a nd , a r e c on ce n-t r a t e d be tw ee n t h e a g e s o f 10 a n d' 30 a nd a r e e s s e n t i a l l y u nim od ali n ag e p r o f i l e . D iv o rce , ch ang e o f em ploy ment , an d m oving c l o s e rt o t h e p l a c e o f work ha ve p r o f i l e s t h a t a r e bi-m odal, w i t h l o c a lp ea ks a t i n f a nc y and a t t h e e a r l y l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n a ge s .F i n a l l y , h e a l t h r e a s o n s a p p a r e n t l y a r e a n i m p o rt a n t c a u se of m i -g r a t i o n o nl y f o r t h e e l d e r l y . (The r e s i d u a l c a t e go r y , " a l l o t h e rr e a s o n s " i s c o n s o l id a t e d t o g e t h e r w i t h d i v o r c e i n F i g u re 2 i no r de r t o g i v e it a p r o f i l e t h a t i s more amenable f o r ou r sub-s e q ue n t a n a l y t i c a l m a n i p ul a ti o n s. )

The d i f f e r e n t c a u s e - s p e c i f i c a ge p a t t e r n s may b e i n t e r p r e t e dk f t h i n a l i f e - c y c l e framew ork i n w hich i n d i v i d u a l s p a s s t h ro u ghd i f f e r e n t s t a t e s of e x i s t e nc e . S t a r t i n g w i th b i r t h and t h e n ane n t r y i n t o t h e e d u c a t i o na l s ys te m a t t h e e le me nt ar y l e v e l , t h e" pa ss ag e" may a l s o i n c l u d e e n t r y i n t o t h e m i l i t a r y o r t h e u ni -v e r s i t y , m a r r i a g e, m u l t i p l e e n t r i e s i n t o and w i th d ra w a ls f romt h e l a b o r f o r c e , p e r h ap s d i v o r c e and r e m a r ri a g e, r e t i r e m e n t ,widowhood, and moves t o e n t e r s a n a t o r i a o r t o r e j o i n r e l a t i v e s .

A ss oc ia te d w i t h t h i s i n d i v i d u a l l i f e c y c l e pe r s p e c t iv e i sa f a mi ly l i f e c y c l e o r i e n t i a t i o n which b e gi n s w i t h m ar r ia g e,p a s s e s o n t a p r o c r e a t i o n , c h i l d r e a r i n g ( p o s s i b l y i n t e r r u p t e db y d iv o rce o r d e a t h ) , c o n t i nu e s on t o c h i l d " la u nc h in g ", r e t i r e -m en t, a nd u l t i m a t e l y e n ds w i t h t h e d e a t h o f b o t h s p o u s e s ;

" Th e m ain s t a g e s t h ro u g h which a f am i ly p as s e s d u r in gi t s l i f e t i m e a r e t h e i n i t i a l c h i l d l e s s s t a g e , u su a l ly l a s t -i n g one o r two y e a r s , t h e c h i l d b ea r i n g s t a g e , d e f in e d byt h e i n t e r v a l between t h e f i r s t and l a s t b i r t h , u s u a l l y ex-t e n d i n g ov e r a pp r ox im a te l y e i g h t y e a r s , and t h e i n t e r m e d i a t es t a g e o c c u rr i ng betw een t h e b i r t h o f t h e l a s t c h i l d and t h ef i r s t c h i l d l e a v i n g home, e x t en d i ng f o r a b ou t 16 y e a r s a ndr e p r e s e n t i n g t h e o n l y p e r i o d d u r i n g w hich a l l members o f t h ef a mi ly a r e l i v i n g i n t h e h ou se ho ld . T h is i s fo l lo wed by whati s o f t e n r e f e r r e d t o a s t h e ' l a u nc h in g ' s t a g e , o c c ur r in g be-tween t h e e v e n t s of t h e f i r s t and l a s t c h i l d l e a v i n g home,u s u a l l y o f c om pa ra ble l e n g t h t o t h e c h i l d b e a r i n g s t a g e .Beyond t h e l a u n c h i n g s t a g e , w hen t h e p a r e n t s a r e a g a i na l o n e i n t h e h ou se ho ld i s t h e p o s t - p a re n t a l s t a g e e nd in gwhen o n e o f t h e s p o u s es d i e s . Then fo l l o ws a p e r io d o fwidowhood u n t i l t h e d e a t h of t h e o t h e r p a r e n t . O b v io u sl y,t h e se que nc e and t im i n g o f t h e s t a g e s of t h e l i f e c y c l ed i f f e r f rom t h i s f o r f a m i l i e s pr e ma t ur e ly b ro ke n by d e a t ho r d i v o r c e o f t h e p a r e n t s . " (Young, 1 97 5, p . 6 1 )


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F i g u r e 2 p r es e nt e d c a u se - sp e ci f ic a ge p r o f i l e s s c a l e d t o au n i t GMR f o r ease of com paris on . T h e ir r e l a t i v e l e v e l s i n t h eo b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e a re i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g ur e 3 , whicha l s o i n c l u d e s c om pa ra bl e d a t a f o r a no t h e r y e a r , 19 70 , t o p e r m i tan examina t ion of changes ove r t i m e . The a g g r e g a t e m i g r a t i o np r o f i l e , h o w e v e r , i s s t i l l s c a l ed t o sum t o a u n i t a r e a u nd ert h e c u r v e .

F i g u r e 3 shows t h a t b o t h t h e l e v e l s a nd t h e a g e p r o f i l e so f t h e 1970 a nd 1973 m i g r a t i o n c a u s e s t r u c t u r e s a re roughly s i m -i l a r . H ou sin g r e a s o n s a c c o u n t f o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 40 p e r c e n t o ft h e t o t a l g r o s s m i gr ap ro d uc ti on r a t e , economic r e a so n s f o r a na d dA t io n a1 25 t o 30 p e r c e n t , m a r r i ag e f o r 1 2 t o 1 5 p e r c e n t ,h e a l th f o r 8 t o 11 p e r c e n t , a nd a l l o t h e r r ea so n s f o r t h e re-m ai ni ng 5 t o 1 5 p e r c e nt . The m aj or d i f f e r e n c e i n ag e p r o f i l e so c c u r s i n t h e p o s t - r e t i r e m e n t a g e s , w i t h t h e 1973 s c h e d u l e s ex-h i b i t i n g a much more pronounced ald-age-peak.

F i g u r e 4 c o n t r a s t s t h e l e v e l s and ag e p r o f i l e s o f malei n t r a - r e p u b l i c moves w i t h t h o s e o f ma le i n t e r - r e p u b l i c movesi n a n e f f o r t t o i d e n t i f y t h e p o s s i b le e f f e c t s o f d i s t a n c e ont h e m i g r a t i o n ca u s e s t r u c t u r e . Here t h e f i n d i n gs a re n o t asc l e a r c u t . A lt ho ug h i n t r a - r e p u b l i c m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s by c a u ses e e m t o b e s i m i l a r i n b o th t h e Czech and t h e S lo va k r e p u b l i c s ,t h ey d i v e r g e i n t h e c o rr e sp o n d in g i n t e r - r e p u b l i c m i g r a t io n d a t a .H ou sin g r e a s o n s , f o r e xa mp le , c o n t r i b u t e 45 p e rc e nt o f t h e t o t a lGMR i n t h e f l ow f ro m t h e Czech t o t h e S l ov ak r e p u b l i c , b u t a c -c o u nt f o r o n l y 33 p e r c en t o f t h e f lo w i n t h e r e v e r s e d i r e c t i o n .The ag e p r o f i l e s a l s o seem t o d i f f e r , b ut a m ore a c c u ra te assess-m e nt r e qu i r e s a s c a l i n g t o a u n i t GMR, such as a p p ea r s i n F i g u r e5.

F i g u r e 5 e n l a rg e s t h e a ge p r o f i l e s o f t h e f o l lo w in g t h r e ec a us e s t o a u n i t GMR:

1 . change of employment,2 . moving c l o s e r t o p l a c e o f w ork, a nd3 . hous ing .


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25/58

r r n nn o w -

Z o n x a ~

0m 0 0 0I 0 0

? ? ? 9 9

..v) Ca, 7 44Jcrr wh C0C -40 4J.4 crr0 hcrr cns7.2-4c.2 zU-4 -' u 3 w-4 a ,U 0 4K ? 2rn hl a , -a , 0 crrv) G.d!J-dxcrr riJU a >C 0+ac r r da, vl> I 0h a sa , h Um 4 J 0,n C NO H U


26/58

L

1=InaCz

e

cmigao

2=IneC

oSo

are

cmigao

3=InaSo

ae

cmigao

4=IneSo

aoCz

re

cmigao

1.

Intra-republicmigration:

Changeofemployment.

2

Inter-republicmigration:

Changeofemployment.

Figure5.Observedcause-specificmigrationrates:

Intra-andinter-republicmigrationsin

Czechoslovakia,males,1973,forspecificcauses.


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L

1=InaCz

re

cmigao

2=1ec

oSo

are

cmigao

3=InaSo

ae

cmigao

4=IneSo

aoCz

re

cmigao

3


Movingclosertolaceofwork.

4.Inter-republicmigration:


Figure5

Observedcause-specificmigrationrates:

Intra-andinter-republicmigrationsin

Czechoslovakia,males,1973,forspecific

causes,continued.


28/58

L

1=1aCz

e

cmigao

2=IneCz

oSo

are

cmigao

3=InaSo

ae

cmigao

4=IneSo

aoCz

re

cmigao

5Inae

cmigao:

Hon

6.Inee

cmigao

Hon

Fge5Obvc

p

cmigaorae

Inaa

nee

cmigao

n

Cz

o

amae1

fosp

c

c

c

n


29/58

D i ff e re n ce s i n a ge p r o f i l e s a s s o c i a te d w i th d i f f e r e n c e s i nt h e d i s t a n c e s m i g r at e d a r e h a r d t o i d e n t i f y . I nd ee d more s i g n i f -i c a n t p r o f i l e d i f f e r e n c es s e e m t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e r e p u b l i co f o r i g i n th a n w i t h t h e c a te g o r y o f f lo w ( i . e . , i n t r a v s . i n t e r ) .F or exa mp le , t h e a g e p r o f i l e s o f m i g r a t i o n o r i g i n a t i n g i n Sl o v ak i aa r e more l ab o r d o min an t, i . e . , a h i g he r p r o p o r t io n o f t h e t o t a lGMR i s t o b e f o un d i n t h e p ri me young l a b o r f o r c e a g e s . A l a b o rd o min an t cu rv e , co n s eq u e n t ly , i s c h a r a c t e r iz e d by a r e l a t i v e l yt h i n n e r a nd h i g h e r p ea k be tw ee n t h e a g e s o f 2 0 and 3 0 .

W e c on cl ud e, t h e r e f o r e , t h a t a l t ho u gh t h e m i g r a t i o n l e v e l sa s s o c i a t e d w i t h v a r i o u s c a u s e s va r y w i t h d i s t a n c e , t h e c a us e-s p e c i f i c a g e p r o f i l e s may i n f a c t by q u i t e s i m i l a r . Only mored a t a o f t h e s o r t i l l u s t r a t e d above ca n c l a r i f y t h i s m a t t e r . A tt h e moment t h e above conc lus ion i s m e r e l y a c o n j e c t u r e .

ANALYSIS: MODEL SCHEDULESF i g u r e 6 i l l u s t r a t e s b o th t h e ob se rv ed a g e -s p e c i f i c migra-

t i o n s c he du le s ( s c a l e d t o u n i t GMR) fo r Czech o s lo v ak ian ma lesand females i n 1 9 7 3 a nd t h e i r g r a d u a t i o n by a model s c h e d u l e( t h e su p er i mp o se d sm ooth o u t l i n e s ) d e f i n e d as t h e sum o f f o u rcomponents:

1 . a s i n g l e n e g a t i v e e x p o n e n t i a l cu r v e o f t h e pr e - la b o r--f o r c e a g e s , w i t h i t s r a t e of d e s ce n t , a l :

2 . a u nim od al c u r v e o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e a g e s w i t h i t s r a t e so f a s c e n t and d e s c e n t , h2 and a * , r e s p e c t i v e l y ;

3 . a n o t h e r u ni mo da l c u r v e o f t h e p o s t - l a b o r f o r c e a ge s-w i t h i t s r a t e s o f a s c e n t and d e s c e n t , h 3 and a 3'r e s p e c t i v e l y , and

4 . a c o n s t a n t c u r v e c , t h e i n c l u s i o n o f w hic h i m pr ov est h e q u a l i t y o f f i t p ro vi de d by t h e m a t he m at ic al ex-p r e s s i o n o f t h e s c h e d u le .

The d e c o m po s i ti o n d e s c r i b e d a bo ve s u g g e s t s t h e f o l l o w i n g


30/58

& .. .9)amrn Q )PA C m0 -4 F.n'44E -o o r nU a,rn da) rn rdd a ) E5 r n a )a 5'44a) aC U aU Cr n r l rddr l r d r na) a)'Cl & I +8 2 2


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-21-

s im ple sum of f ou r c u rve s (Xoge rs , R a qu i l l e t , a nd C a s t ro , 1978)* :

The " f u l l " model s c h e d u l e i n e q u a t i o n (1 ) h a s e l e v e n p ar a m e t e r s :a l , a l , a 2 , p 2 , a 2 , X 2 , a 3 , p3, a 3 , X 3 , and c . The p r o f i l e o ft h e f u l l model s c h e d u l e i s de f ine d by se ve n o f t h e e l e v e n param-e te r s : a l . p 2 , a 2 , X 2 , p3, a3, and X 3 . I t s l e v e l i s de fe rm ine dby t h e r e m a i n in g f o u r p a r a me t e rs : a l , a 2 , a 3 , a nd c . A changei n t h e v a l u e o f t h e g r o s s mi gr ap ro d uc ti on r a t e of a p a r t i c u l a rmodel s ch ed u le a l t e r s p r o p o r t i o n a l l y t h e v a l ue s of t h e l a t t e rb u t do es n o t a f f e c t t h e fo rm er . F i n a l l y , m i g r at i o n s c h ed u l esw i t h o u t a r e t i r e m e n t o r o l d a g e p ea k may b e r e p r e s e n t e d b y a" r ed u ce d " model w i t h s e v en p a r a m e t e r s , b e c au s e i n s u c h i n s t a n c e st h e t h i r d com pon en t o f e q u a t i o n ( 1 ) i s o m i t t e d .

The model sch edu le de f in ed i n equa t io n (1) may be used t of i t a l l of t h e ca us e- sp ec if ic p r o f i l e s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F ig ur es 2and 5. The tw o e mp lo ym e nt -r el at ed p r o f i l e s an d t h e p r o f i l e s ofm i g r a t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h m a r r i a g e a nd w i t h d i v o r c e may b ede sc r ib ed by t h e reduced seven-parameter mode l. Educa tion-.m o t i v at e d m ig r a t i o n p r o f i l e s f o l l o w t h e model s c h ed u l e w i t h

-b o t h t h e f i r s t a nd t h e t h i r d c om po nen ts o m i t t e d e . , a l = a 3 -0 ) . The a g e p a t t e r n o f h e a l t h - r e l a t e d m i g r a t i o n c a n b e d e s c r i b e dby t h e model s c h e d u l e w i t h b o t h t h e f i r s t a nd t h e s e c o n d compon-e n t s o m it te d ( i . e . , a , = a 2 = 0). F i n a l l y , m i g r a t i o n c au s e d byh o us i ng r e a s o n s an d by t h e re m ai n in g " a l l o t h e r c a u s es " ( i n c l u d -i n g di v o rc e ) t a k e s o n t h e p r o f i l e o f t h e f u l l e l e v en pa ra me te r

*Both t h e l a b o r f o r c e an d t h e p o s t - l a b o r f o r c e c om po ne nt s i ne q u a t i o n ( 1 ) a r e d e s c r i b e d by t h e " do u bl e e x p o n e n t i a l " c u rv eform ula t ed by Coa le and M c N e i l (1972) f o r t h e i r s t u d i e s o fn u p t i a l i t y and f e r t i l i t y .


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model, as d o es t h e a g g r e g a t e s c h e d ul e . F i g u r e s 7 and 8 d i s p l a yt h e r e s u l t s o f s uc h f i t s , and Appendix T ab l es A , B , C , and D s e to u t t h e n um e ri ca l est imates o f t h e v a r i o u s pa r a m e t e rs a n d v a r i -a b l e s t h a t d e f i n e t h e s e model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d ul e s . ( T h e i r i n t e r -p r e t a t i o n a nd methods o f d e r i v a t i o n a r e d e s c r i b e d i n C a s t r o andRogers , 1 979) .

The model s c h e d u l e p r o f i l e s d i s p l a y e d i n F i g u r e s 6 , 7 , and8 r e p e a t t h e p a t t e r n s e x h i b i t e d by t h e c u b i c- s p l in e i n t e r p o l a -t i o n s o f t h e same d a t a i n F i g u r e s 1 , 2, a nd 5. The p r i n c i p a l a d-v a n ta g e o f t h e model s c h e d u l e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n i s t h a t t h e m a t h -ematical d e s c r i p t i o n i s p a r t i c u l a r l y w e l l - s u i te d f o r a n a l y t i c a ls t u d i e s o f t h e p r o p e r t i e s o f e a c h c a u s e - s p e c i f i c c u r ve and o ft h e i mp ac ts o f c ha ng es i n e ac h c u r v e ' s r e l a t i v e i mp or ta nc e ont h e a g g r e g at e m i g r a t i o n a g e p a t t e r n .

The C z ec h os lo va ki an a g e p a t t e r n s o f i n t e r n a l m i g r a t i o n byc a u s e may be c h a r a c t e r i z e d i n a number o f d i f f e r e n t ways w i t ht h e m ea s ur es p r e s e n t e d i n t h e A pp en di ce s. W e b e g i n by o b s e r v i n gt h a t among t h e s e v e n c a u s e s ex am in ed , o n l y h e a l t h , h o u s i ng , a ndo t h e r r ea s on s e x h i b i t a r e t i r e m e n t ( i n d e e d a p o s t - r e t i r e m e n t )p e ak , w i t h t h e o n e f o r h o u s i n g b e i n g l o c a t e d more t h a n a d oz e ny e a r s a he ad o f t h e p eak f o r h e a l t h . W e a l s o no te t h a t t h e -owp o i n t a nd t h e h i g h p e ak , x Q a nd xh, r e s p e c t i v e l y , o c cu r e a r l i e ri n fe ma le p r o f i l e s t h a n i n male p r o f i l e s , i n a l l c a s e s f o r whic ht h e s e m e as ur e s h a ve b ee n c a l c u l a t e d . T h i s u n d ou b te d ly i s a r e -f l e c t i o n o f t h e d i f f e re n c e s i n a ge s a t m a r r i a g e .

The a g e p r o f i l e s o f r ed uc ed -f or m model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s( i . e . , no r e t i r e m e n t p ea k a nd o n l y s e ve n p a r a m e t e r s ) a r e d e t e r -

m ined by t h e f o u r p a r a m e t e r s a l , p2 , a 2 , h 2 , and t h e r a t i o h I 2 =a l / a 2 . The f i r s t and t h i r d d e f i n e t h e r a t e s o f d e s c e nt a g a i n s ta ge o f t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s o f c h i l d r e n and t h e i r p ar e n t s , res-p e c t i v e l y . The s ec o nd l o c a t e s t h e l a b o r f o r c e c u r v e on t h e a g ea x i s . The f o u r t h d e f i n e s t h e r a t e o f a s c e n t o f t h e m ig r a t i onr a t e s o f t h o s e young a d u l t s l e a v i n g t h e f a m i l y home f o r pr i m ar -i l y m a r r i a g e , e d u c a t i o n , a nd e co no mi c r e a s o n s . And t h e l a s tr e l a t e s t h e h e i gh t of t h e pr e - la bo r f o r c e cu rv e t o t h a t o f t h el ab o r fo rce co m p o n en t .


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1 . Change of em pl op cn t . 2 . Moving c l os er t o p lac e o f w ork .

3 . Educat ion. 4 . Health .Figure 7 . Model s chedu l es o f obs erved cau s e- s pe c i f i cmigrat ion ra te s : C zechos lovak ia , males andf e m a l e s , 1 9 7 3 .


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5 . Marriage .

: - : : . I10 10 YI 40 50 60 70 BD

7 . O th er ( p l u s D iv o r c e )

6 . Housing .

F i g ure 7 . Model s c h e d u l e s o f o b s er v e d c a u s e - s p e c i f i cm i g ra t i o n ra te s : C zecho s l o v a k i a , m a l e s a ndf e m a l e s , 1 9 7 3 , c o n t i n u e d .


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Legend:1Intra-Czech)epublicigration

2=Inter-Czech-to-Slovakia)republicigration

3=Intra-Slovakia)epublicigration

4Inter-Slovakia-o-Czech)republicigration

1.


Changeofemployment.

2


Changeofmployment.

Figure8

Modelschedulesofobservedcause-specific

migrationrates:Intra-andinter-republic

migrationsinCzechoslovakia,males,1973,

forspecificcauses.


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L

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Figure8

Modelschedulesofobservedcause-specific



forspecificcauses,continued.


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L

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Figure8

l

chedulesofobservedcause-specific



forspecificcauses,continued.


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The model s c h e d u l e s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u re s 6 , 7, and 8e x h i b i t a wide r an g e o f v a l u e s f o r t h e s e p a ra m et er s of i n t e r e s t .The t a l l e s t , t h o s e f o r e d u c a t i o n and m a r r i a g e , may b e c h a r a c t e r -i z e d by t h e i r r e l a t i v e l y low v a lu e s f o r 6 1 2 = a l / a 2 , v a lu e s t h a ta r e a bo ut o n e - f i f t h a s l a r g e a s t h o s e o f t h e o t h e r p r o f i l e s .Age pa t t e r n s wi t h much h i g he r va l u es o f 6 1 2 t e n d t o a l s o showr e l a t i v e l y h i g h er m i g r at i o n r a t e s f o r c h i l d r e n . Thus t h e s el a t t e r p r o f i l e s may be s a i d t o be c h i l d d ep en de nt , i n c o n t r a s tt o t h e f o rm e r, w hi ch may be c a l l e d l a b o r do mi na nt p r o f i l e s .

Labor d ominance r e f l e c t s t h e r e l a t i v e m i g ra t io n l e v e l s o ft h os e i n t h e w orkin g a g e s r e l a t i v e t o t h o s e o f c h i l d r e n andp e n s io n e r s. L ab or asym metry r e f e r s t o t h e sh a pe o f t h e c e n t r a lbe l l - shape d curve and i s m ea su re d by t h e r a t i o u 2 = A2/a2. Then u m e r i c a l v a l u e s f o r u 2 i n t h e Append ices i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e na-t i o n a l moving-closer-to-place-of-work p r o f i l e e x h i b i t s t h e mosta sy mm et ri ca l p a t t e r n o f a l l c a u se s .

SYNTHESIS: SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTSThe p reced i ng two s ec t i on s have been devo t ed t o a des c r i p -

t i o n and an a n a l y s i s o f c a u s e - s p e ci f i c m i g r a t i o n a ge p r o f i l e s ' .W e now t u r n t o an ex a m in a ti o n of c a u s e - d e l et e d a g e p r o f i l e s ,f o cu s in g i n p a r t i c u l a r on t h e i mp ac t t h a t t h e d e l e t i o n o f a p a r-t i c u l a r c a u s e ha s o n t h e r em a in i ng a g g r eg a t e m i g r a t i o n a ge p a t-t e r n .

F i g u r e 9 i l l u s t r a t e s f o u r of t h e s ev en a g g r eg a t e models c he d ul e a ge p r o f i l e s t h a t a r e n u m e ri ca l ly d e f i n e d i n AppendixE . * I n ea ch c a s e , t h e a g g r eg a t e a ge p r o f i l e w i t h a s i n g l e c a us ed e l e t e d i s c o n t r a s t e d w i t h o ne i n which t h a t s i n g l e c a u s e ' ss h a r e i s i nc re as ed t o f i v e t i m e s i t s o b s e rv e d l e v e l . The re -s u l t i n g c o n t r a s t s c l e a r l y i d e n t i f y t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f e achc au se t o t h e a g g r e g a te a ge p r o f i l e .

*The a rea under each curve i s once a g a i n s c a l e d t o e q u a l u n i t yi n e ach c a s e , i . e . , GMR = 1 .


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1.

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De le t in g ch an ge-o f-employ ment r ea so n s f o r mi g r a t i n g f romt h e a g g re ga te of a l l c au se s r e s u l t s i n a s h i f t of t h e mean ag et ow ar d a n o l d e r a g e b ec a us e o f t h e t h e n i n c r e a s e d r e l a t i v e i m -p o r t an c e o f m i g r a t i o n i n t h e p o s t -l a b o r f o r c e a g e s. I n c r e a s i n gt h e r e l a t i v e imp o r t an ce o f ch an ge-o f-emplo ymen t r ea so n s f i v e -f o l d l o w er s t h e r a t e s of d e s c e n t o f t h e m i g r a ti o n r a t e s o f y ounga d u l t s , a 2 , a nd o f t h e i r c h i l d r e n , a , .

H e a l t h r e a s o n s f o r m i g r a t i n g become i m p o r t a n t o n l y i n t h ep o s t - r e t i r e me n t ag e s . Thus d e l e t i n g th em remov es t h e p eak i nt h o s e ag es ; i n c r e a s i n g t h e i r i mp or ta nc e f i v e - f o l d s i m pl y i n -c r e a s e s t h e h e i g h t o f t h a t peak. The s l o p e p a r a m e te r s a l , a 2 ,and X 2 , a nd t h e l o c a t i o n p a ra m e te r p 2 , remain unchanged.

I n c r e a s i n g t h e r e l a t i v e i mp or ta nc e o f m a r r i ag e , a s a c au s ef o r m ig r at io n , d r a m a t i c a l l y i n c r e a s e s t h e h e i g h t o f t h e h ig hp ea k. The r a t e o f a s c e n t , X2, i n c r e a s e s , b u t t h e r a t e s of d es -c e n t a l and a 2 a r e on ly s l i g h t l y a f f e c t e d . The curve becomesa member o f t h e l ab o r d o min ant f ami ly a n a ly ze d i n Cas t ro an dRogers (1979) .

F i n a l l y , h ou si ng r e a s o ns i n f l u e n c e t h e a g g r e g at e p r o f i l ea t t h e v e r y young a nd t h e r e t i r e m e n t a g e s . D e l e t i n g them lo w e rst h e r a t e of d e s c e nt of p r e- la b o r f o r c e m i g r a t i o n , "1 ' and r a i s e sth e imp o rt an ce o f o l d ag e mig ra t i o n . The mean ag e r ema in s v i r -t u a l l y u n c h a n g e d .

F i g u r e 9 shows t h a t c ha ng es i n t h e r e l a t i v e i m p or ta nc e ofd i f f e r e n t c a us e s of m i g r a ti o n pr od uc e p r e d i c t a b l e c h an ge s i n t h ea g g r e g a t e m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e . Employment r e a s o n s i n f l u e n c et h e r a t e s of d e s c e n t a , and a 2 . H e al th r e a s on s a f f e c t o n l y t h ep o st -r e ti r em e n t p r o f i l e , i n f l u e n c i n g A 3 a nd t h e a g e o f t h e p o s t -r e t i r e m e n t p ea k , x r. M ar ria ge r e a so n s d r a m a t i c a l l y a f f e c t t h er a t e of a s c e n t X 2 , b u t l e a v e a , and a 2 r e l a t i v e l y u n a f f e ct e d .H ousing r e a s o n s , on t h e o t h e r hand i n f l u e n c e t h e l a t t e r , e s -p e c i a l l y a l .


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CONCLUSIONT h is p a p e r was m o t i va t e d by t h e c o n j e c t u r e t h a t r e g u l a r i -

t i e s i n t h e m i g r a t i o n ag e p a t t e r n s of d i f f e r e n t n a t i o n a l pop-u l a t i o n s a r e l i k e l y t o be s t r o n g e r a nd more e v i d e n t i n c au se -s p e c i f i c s c h e d ul e s t h a n . i n a g g r e ga t e s c h e du l e s . The i m p li c a-t i o n s o f t h i s f o r model m i g r a t i o n ' s c h e d ul e s a r e t h e same a s f o rmodel m o r t a l i t y s c h e d u l e s , i n t h e c o n t e x t o f w h ich P r e s t o n ( 19 76 )observed :

"Model m o r t a l i t y p a t t e r n s a r e t y p i c a l l y r e q u i r e d f o rdem ograp hic e s t i m a t i o n o n l y i f d e a t h r e g i s t r a t i o n i s i n -c o mp le te . B ut i f t h e d e g r e e o f i n c o m p le t e n e ss i s l a r g e l yi n v a r i a n t w i t h r e s p e c t t o c a us e o f d e a t h , t h en t h e c a u se -s t r u c t u r e o f m o r t a l i t y ca n b e r e l i a b l y e s t i m a t e d . I n s uc ha c a s e t h e a g e p a t t e r n o f m o x t a l i t y s h o u ld b e l a r g e l y re-c o v e r a b l e w i t h o u t r e f e r e n c e t o a ny e x t e r n a l m od el s. TheZeveZ o f m o r t a l i t y c a n t h e n b e e s t i m a t e d th r ou g h c on ve n-t i o n a l s t a b l e p o p u l at i o n o r c en su s s u r v i v a l t e c hn i qu e s. "( P r e s t o n , 1 976 , p. 1 18 , i t a l i c s a d de d .)S u b s t i t u t i n g i n t h e word " m i g r at io n " f o r " m o r t a l i t y " and

" d ea t h" i n t h e above q u o t a t i o n y i e l d s t h e o b s e r v a t io n t h a t t h ea ge p a t t e r n ( i . e . , p r o f i l e ) o f m i g r a t i o n may b e e s t i m a t e d byw e i gh t in g e a c h c a u s e - s p e c i f i c p r o f i l e by t h e m i g r a ti o n s t r u c t u r e( i . e . , t h e f r a c t i o n of t h e t o t a l GMR t h a t i s a t t r i b u t a b l e t oeach o f k c a u s e s ) :

z k kwhere 1 M(x) = 1 , 1 ~ m ( ~ )1 , and 1 P ( ~ ) ( x ) 1, x = 0 , 1 , 2 ,..., .x i iE q u a t io n ( 2 ) a l s o may b e e x p r e s s e d i n t h e f or m o f m i g r a t i o n

p r o p o r t i o n s


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where N ( i ) ( x ) d e no t es t h e f r a c t i o n o f m i g r a nt s a t age x amongt ho se c i t i n g c au se i , and N ( i ) i s t h e f r a c t i o n o f t o t a l m ig ra nt sc i t i n g c a us e i.

The e s t i m a t i o n p ro b le m a l s o ca n be " t u r n e d o n i t s h e ad " a sP r e s t o n o b s e r v e s :

" J u s t as t h e c a u s e - s t r uc t u r e o f m o r t a l i t y ca n b e us edt o p r e d i c t t h e a g e p a t t e r n , t h e a g e p a t t e r n i m pl ie s a spe-c i a l c a u s e o f d e a t h s t r u c t u r e . " ( P r e s t o n , 1 976 , p . 1 1 6)I n t h e c o n t e x t of m i g r a t i o n , t h i s s u g g es t s t h a t g i ve n , f o r exam-p l e , t h e ~ u n g a r i a n g g r eg a te m i g ra t io n a g e p a t t e r n a nd t h e C zech-o s lo v a ki a n c a u s e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t io n a g e p a t t e r n s ( p r o f i l e s ) onec o u ld u se e q u a t i o n s ( 2 ) o r ( 3 ) t o d ev el op est imates o f t h e i m pl i edH un ga ri an c a u s e of m i g r a t i o n s t r u c t u r e a n d c om pa re it w i t h t h eone d e s cr i b e d i n S e c t i o n 2 of t h i s p ap er .*

* W e a re i n de b te d t o Nathan K e y fi t z f o r c a l l i n g ou r a t t e n t i o nt o t h i s " i n v er s e " u se o f t h e m o r t a l i t y c a u s e - s t ru c t u re r e l a -t i o n sh ip by Sam Pre s to n .


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REFERENCES

C a s t r o , L . J . a n d A. Rogers (1979) M i g ra t i o n Age P a t t e rn s :I . N ea su re me nt a nd A n a l y s i s . WP-79-16. Laxenburg,A u s t r i a : I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A pp li ed S ys tem sA n a l y s i s .C o a l e , A . J . an d D.R . M c N e i l ( 19 72 ) The d i s t r i b u t i o n by a g eo f t h e f r e qu en cy o f f i r s t m a r r i ag e i n a f e m a le c o h o r t .J ou rn al o f t h e A merican S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n ,67: 743-749.Compton, P.A. (1 97 1) Some A s p e c t s o f t h e I n t e r n a l M i g r a t i o no f P o p u Z at i o n i n Hungary S i n c e 1 9 5 7 . B u d ap es t , H u n g a r y :C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e , Demographic R es ea rc h I n s t i t u t e .C ze ch os lo va ki an F e d er a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e (1974) DemographicT r e n ds i n C z e c ho s Z o va k i a . P r a g u e , C z e c h o s l o v a k i a .Ho ove r, E.M. (1 97 1) An I n t r o d u c t i o n t o R e g i on a l E co no m ic s.

New York: A.A. Knopf.Kiihnl, K . (197 8) S e l e c t e d a s p e c t s o f m i g r a t io n m o t i v a t i o n i nt h e C zech S o c i a l i s t R ep u bl ic . A c t a ~ n i v e r s i t a t i sC a r o l i n a e ,Geograph ica , 1 3 ( 1 ) : 3 - 1 1 .Long, L.H. and K .A . Hansen (1979) R ea so ns f o r I n t e r s t a t e M igra-t i o n : J o b s , R e t i r e m e n t , C l i m a t e , and O t he r I n f t u e n c e s .C u r r e n t P o p u l a t i o n R e p o r t s , S e r i e s P -23, No. 81, Washing-t o n , D.C . : B u r eau o f t h e C en s u s , U .S. D ep a r t m en t of

C omm e r c e .M c N e i l , D . R . , T.J. T r u s s e l l , a nd J . C . T u r n e r ( 1977) S p l i n e i n t e r -p o l a t i o n o f d e mo g ra p hi c d a t a . Demography, 14: 245-252.


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P r e s t o n , S. (1976) M o r t a l i t y P a t t e r n s i n Na t io n al P o p u la t i o ns .N ew York: Academic P r e s s .

Rogers , A . , R. R a q u i l l e t , and L . J . C a s t r o (1978) Model migra t ions c he d ul e s and t h e i r a p p l i c a t i o n s . Environment and PZanningA , 1 O(5) : 475-502.

Young, C.M. (1975) F a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e t i m i n g a ndd u r a t i o n of t h e lea'ving-home s t a g e o f t h e f a m i l y l i f ec y c l e . P o p u l a t i o n S t u d i e s , 29 (1) 61-73.


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APPENDICES

LegendCause 1 = Change of employment

2 = Moving c l o s e r t o p la ce of work3 = Educat ion4 = Heal th5 = Marr iage6 = Housing7 = O t h e r8 = A l l c a u s e s


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RELATED PUBLICATIONS ON URBAN CHANGE

Niles Hansen, Human Settlement Systems; InternationalPerspectives on Structure, Change and Public Policy,Ballinger, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1978.Andrei Rogers, Migration and Settlement: Selected Essays.RR-78-6, International Institute for Applied SystemsAnalysis, Laxenburg, Austria.Andrei Rogers and Frans Willekens, Migration and Settlement:Measurement and Analysis. RR-78-13. InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,Austria,Frans Willekens and Andrei Rogers, Spatial PopulationAnalysis: Methods and Computer Programs. RR-78-18.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,Laxenburg, Austria.L. Lackb, G. Enyedi, and G. Koszegfalvi, Functional UrbanRegions in Hungary. CP-78-4. International Institutefor Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.Peter Gordon, Deconcentration Without a "Clean Break".RM-78-39. International Institute for Applied SystemsAnalysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Also published inEnvironment and Planning A, 1 1 (3):281-290.Jacques Ledent and Peter Gordon, A Demoeconomic Model ofInterregional Growth Rate Differences. RM-78-52.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,

Laxenburg, Austria.. Also forthcoming in GeographicalAnalysis.


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8. Luis Castro and Andrei Rogers, Migration Age Patterns: I.Measurement and Analysis. WP-79-16. InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,Austria.

9. Lennart Ohlsson, Components of Urban Industrial EmploymentChange in a Small Open Economy: Sweden. WP-78-32.International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,Laxenburg, Austria.

10. Lennart Ohlsson, Tracing ~egional atterns of IndustrialSpecialization Trends in Sweden. WP-78-33. Inter-national Institute for ~pplied ystems Analysis,Laxenburg, Austria.11. Lennart Ohlsson, A Conceptual Framework for an Assessmentof Swedish Regional Policy. WP-78-34. InternationalInstitute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg,Austria.

MIGRATION AGE PATTERNS: CAUSE-SPECIFIC PROFILES (1979)

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