MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN April 2014 INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH AND PLANNING MCC-IR@MIDDLESEX.MASS.EDU Planning is a critical process in any organization. Middlesex Community College recognizes that every organization operates in an environment of needs, contingencies, and relationships. With heightened challenges in enrollment and the changing demographics, an analysis of the environment has become a part of the planning process. As the College begins its Strategic Planning process, it will focus on the findings in this environmental scan to align academic programs and enrollment goals with the needs of its environment.
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MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGEThis environmental scan identifies selected demographic, economic, and educational trends and characteristics shaping the environment within which Middlesex
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Planning is a critical process in any organization. Middlesex Community College recognizes that every organization operates in an environment of needs, contingencies, and relationships. With heightened challenges in enrollment and the changing demographics, an analysis of the environment has become a part of the planning process. As the College begins its Strategic Planning process, it will focus on the findings in this environmental scan to align academic programs and enrollment goals with the needs of its environment.
Geography and Population ...................................................................................................................................... 3 Economic Trends ...................................................................................................................................................... 4 The Public School Environment............................................................................................................................. 5
Chapter I – Geography and Population ......................................................................................................... 6 Current Population ......................................................................................................................................................... 6 Regional Projections ...................................................................................................................................................... 9
Projections by County ............................................................................................................................................... 9 Projections for the Northeast Region of Massachusetts ..................................................................................... 9 Domestic Migration ................................................................................................................................................ 10 Immigration .............................................................................................................................................................. 10 Projections by Town ............................................................................................................................................... 11
Demographic Projections ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Projections by Age and County ............................................................................................................................. 14 Aging of the Population: Implications ................................................................................................................. 15 Labor Force Participation among Young Adults: Implications ....................................................................... 15 Age by Town ............................................................................................................................................................ 17 Gender Achievement Gap ..................................................................................................................................... 18 Race and Ethnicity ................................................................................................................................................... 20 Shifts in Race and Ethnicity 2000-10 ................................................................................................................... 21 Projections for Race and Ethnicity: 2020 ............................................................................................................ 22
Chapter II – Economic Trends ..................................................................................................................... 24 Median Household Income by County..................................................................................................................... 24
Median Household Income Projections .............................................................................................................. 25 Employment Trends .................................................................................................................................................... 26
Unemployment ........................................................................................................................................................ 26 Economic Growth................................................................................................................................................... 27 Industrial Changes ................................................................................................................................................... 27 Location Quotient and other Industry Markers ................................................................................................. 28 Workforce Trends ................................................................................................................................................... 30
Chapter III – The Public School Environment .......................................................................................... 35 Public School/District Trend and Profiles .............................................................................................................. 35
High School Senior Enrollment ............................................................................................................................ 35 High School Freshman Enrollment...................................................................................................................... 36 Intent of High School Seniors ............................................................................................................................... 38 English Learning ...................................................................................................................................................... 40
Higher Education Trends ........................................................................................................................................... 41 Colleges and Universities in Massachusetts ......................................................................................................... 41 For Profit Institutions ............................................................................................................................................. 43 Middlesex County Community College Enrollments-HEIRS II Data ........................................................... 43 University of Massachusetts Lowell-HEIRS II Data ......................................................................................... 46
Table 1. Middlesex County Towns and Cities by Population, 2012.................................................................. 6
Table 2. County Population Changes ........................................................................................................................ 8
Table 3. Middlesex County Projections .................................................................................................................... 9
Table 5. Population Changes due to Immigration .............................................................................................. 11
Table 6. Population Projections of MCC Feeder Towns ................................................................................... 12
Table 7. Middlesex County Population Projections by Age ............................................................................. 14
Table 8. Dependency Ratio in 2012 .......................................................................................................................... 15
Table 9. Population Projections by Top Feeder Towns for Residents Age 20-24 ...................................... 17
Table 10. Highest Degree by Gender and Location 2012: Residents 25 and Over .................................... 19
Table 11. Race and Ethnicity 2012: Massachusetts, Middlesex County, and Lowell ................................ 20
Table 12. Race for Middlesex County 2000-10 ....................................................................................................... 22
Table 13. Median Household and Median Family Income 2000-12 in Middlesex County ..................... 25
Table 14. Industrial Changes 2000-12 in Middlesex County ............................................................................. 28
Table 15. Location Quotients for Middlesex County .......................................................................................... 29
Table 16. Projected Jobs for the Greater Lowell Workforce Area in 2020 ..................................................... 32
Table 17. Number of High School Seniors by School District: 2004-05 to 2011-12 .................................... 36
Table 18. High School Freshmen by School District: 2004-05 to 2011-12 ...................................................... 37
Table 19. Intent of High School Seniors ................................................................................................................. 39
Table 20. English Language Learners by District ............................................................................................... 40
Table 21. First Language Not English by District .............................................................................................. 40
Table 22. Public Institutions of Higher Education in Massachusetts .......................................................... 41
Table 23. Two-Year Degree-Granting Institutions in Massachusetts ........................................................... 42
Table 24. Community College Fall Enrollment .................................................................................................... 43
Table 25. Middlesex County Students in Massachusetts Community Colleges ........................................ 44
Table 26. University of Massachusetts Lowell by Top Feeder Towns .......................................................... 48
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE iii
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Middlesex County Map and Surrounding Towns................................................................................ 7
Figure 2. Feeder Towns with Projected Growth by 2020 ................................................................................... 13
Figure 3. Labor Force Participation in Middlesex County: 2000-11 ............................................................... 16
Figure 4. Gender and Age in Middlesex County, 2010 ....................................................................................... 18
Figure 5. Hispanic Population in Massachusetts, 2012 ...................................................................................... 21
Figure 6. Race and Ethnicity for Middlesex County: 1990-20 .......................................................................... 23
Figure 7. Projection of Middlesex County Residents by Median Household Earnings .......................... 25
Figure 8. Unemployment in US, Massachusetts, Middlesex County, and Lowell .................................... 26
Figure 9. Growth Rates, US, Massachusetts, and Middlesex County ........................................................... 27
Figure 10. Employment by Sector in Middlesex County, 2001 and 2012 ....................................................... 29
Figure 11. Fastest Growing Industries in Massachusetts, 2006-16 .................................................................. 31
Figure 12. Fastest Growing Jobs in Massachusetts, 2006-16 ............................................................................. 31
Figure 13. Middlesex and Essex Counties High School Seniors 2004-05 to 2011-12 ................................. 35
Figure 14. Lowell High School Freshman by Year .............................................................................................. 37
Figure 15. Lowell High School Seniors Planning to Attend Community Colleges ................................... 38
Figure 16. Massachusetts Community College Enrollments from Middlesex County ............................ 45
Figure 17. Undergraduate Enrollment University of Massachusetts Lowell ............................................... 46
Figure 18. Feeder Towns of Undergraduate Enrollment University of Massachusetts Lowell ............. 47
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PURPOSE
Planning is a critical process that occurs at Middlesex Community College. As part of the planning
process, the College adopted an evidence-based culture of decision making. For this purpose, efforts
are being made to establish an Enrollment Plan based on environmental data to align enrollment
goals with community needs. As Middlesex Community College begins its Strategic Planning
process, it will consider the findings in this environmental scan.
Every institution operates in an environment of needs, contingencies, and relationships. In fact, this
environment makes up what can be simply defined as our audience:
individuals who may interact with the college, such as potential students or their families
local businesses, or
government agencies.
This audience is part of a larger demography and is influenced by an economy that in part drives the
need for further education. This environment also includes the level of academic preparation the
audience may require, which helps to inform the college during the planning of academic programs.
Understanding that environment, and projecting when possible, will allow the college to better
understand its current and future position. An environmental scan can assist in formalizing this
process by providing an analytical glance at data that may not have otherwise been observed. This
environmental scan is intended to be only one component of the planning process.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 2
FRAMEWORK
The challenge of developing an environmental scan is identifying the environment in which we exist.
Unlike some states, the Massachusetts community college system is not defined strictly by county.
Nonetheless, county is an important point of reference as 80.5% of all students enrolled in Fall 2012
were from Middlesex County. The Northeast Region in Massachusetts, which includes Lowell, will
also be used as an additional point of reference as a significant number of students come from this
area. The Greater Lowell Workforce Area including Billerica, Chelmsford, Dracut, Dunstable,
Lowell, Tewksbury, Tyngsborough, and Westford, will serve as a final point of reference. Workforce
area is also informative as it blends both economics and geography in these groupings. In
conclusion, county, state region, and workforce area will be used to describe general trends while
maintaining some level of local specificity.
This environmental scan may validate, or refute, enrollment assumptions such as the recent decline
in enrollment. For example, Middlesex Community College experienced a slight decline in
enrollment in the Fall 2011, and it was assumed that this was attributed to a variety of economic
factors. This environmental scan may provide information such as declining high school populations
or migration patterns that may have attributed to the decline.
KEY OBSERVATIONS
This environmental scan identifies selected demographic, economic, and educational trends and
characteristics shaping the environment within which Middlesex Community College operates.
Ultimately, it is the desire that this environmental scan provides data to highlight opportunities for
growth in the next five to ten years. Descriptive statistics on the college are included to provide a
common core of knowledge about the communities we serve. The descriptive statistics also form
the basis of enrollment goals that can be used in charting a course for the future. While we recognize
that Middlesex County is an important part of our environment, we should also recognize that the
enrollment is also influenced by national trends.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 3
GEOGRAPHY AND POPULATION
The population in Middlesex County will increase by 2.6% between 2010 and 2020. Specific
feeder towns, such as Chelmsford and Lowell, will seek weak or negligible growth in the
next ten years. Others, such as Bedford will grow by 7%.
The population in Middlesex County between the ages of 15-19 and between the ages of 20-
24 will decline by 2020. Areas of potential growth include the population between the ages
of 25-29, 14%, and between the ages of 30-34, 31%. The population in Middlesex County
between the age of 55 and over will increase by 23% by the year 2020.
While some towns are expected to increase in population by 2020, including Burlington, 8%,
Bedford, 7%, and Groton, 7%, others, such as Lowell, are expected to demonstrate only
modest, or 1% growth.
Between 2010 and 2020, the population between the ages of 20-24 is expected to decrease
dramatically in Lowell by 17%, as well as in other feeder towns, including Dracut and
Chelmsford. This age group is expected to increase by 10% in Wilmington and 20% in
Westford during this time period.
The Northeast Region of Massachusetts is one of three regions where international
immigration is a significant factor in the overall population projections. Specifically, between
2010 and 2020, the Northeast Region of Massachusetts will gain 40,015 residents due to
immigration. This finding underscores the need for developing and maintaining strong
community relationships, particularly with ethnic groups, in order to strengthen ties between
the community college and its residents.
The decline in workforce participation of residents between the ages of 16-19 suggests that
as this population graduates from high school they will be more likely to seek out higher
education in the next three to five years in an attempt to take the shortest route from high
school and the workforce. This population may also be amenable to attending college full-
time, and will be more receptive to marketing strategies that emphasize jobs.
Although not unique, Middlesex County is experiencing growth with the aging population.
As the population age 50 and over increases, the need for health care and jobs that will
support the elderly will be in greater demand.
While 80% of Massachusetts residents identified themselves as White, the percentage in
Lowell is lower, 55.6%. While 5.7% of the population in Massachusetts identified themselves
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 4
as Asian, this percentage is higher for Middlesex County, 10.0% and Lowell, 21.2%. The
Hispanic population in Middlesex County is 7.0%, but is 17.5% in Lowell.
While the college-age population may decline, the declining labor force participation among
young adults may promote college-going behavior. In 2000, workforce participation among
young adults ages 16-19 was 52%, but has declined to 34% in 2011. This presents an
opportunity for students who have not found jobs to attend college.
The population of Middlesex County residents who identify themselves as Asian will
increase from 9.8% in 2010 to 13.4% in 2020. Hispanic residents may make up 8.4% of the
Middlesex County population in 2020 from 7% in 2010. The percentage of residents who
identify themselves as African American will also increase from 4.9% to 5.9% by 2020.
ECONOMIC TRENDS
While unemployment rates are lower in Middlesex County than in the United States,
unemployment rates are higher in the City of Lowell. This indicates that a strong workforce
message will be compelling for residents in this area.
Between 2001 and 2010, Middlesex County lost 52,744 jobs. The loss of 41,350 jobs in
manufacturing may have been a result of the economic crisis in 2008; however, the
economic rebound still resulted in a net loss of 52% of manufacturing jobs between 2010
and 2012.
Education and Health Services, and Professional and Business Services are now the top two
industries in the local economy.
More than 83% of all net new nonfarm wage and salary jobs will emerge in health care and
social assistance, and professional, scientific and business services. As a result of rapid
growth in these areas, the demand for professional and technical workers will increase
rapidly. Demand for service workers, including nursing, psychiatric, home health aides, and
waiters and waitresses will generate the largest number of new jobs through 2016. These two
occupational groups—at the opposite end of the education and earning spectrum, will
account for 98% of the state’s new jobs.
The Professional and Business Services sector in Middlesex County employs 25.18% of the
workforce. In contrast, Information is highly concentrated (LQ of 2.15) but only employs
5.20% of the workforce.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 5
THE PUBLIC SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT
Since peaking in 2007-08, the number of high-school seniors declined slightly in Middlesex
and Essex Counties. In academic year 2007-08, Middlesex County had 15,809 12th grade
students, compared to 15,595 in 2011-12. With the exception of Billerica, Bedford, and
Westford, the number of 12th grade students has declined since 2007-08 in other feeder
districts.
In 2008-09, 1,114 students entered 9th grade in one of the Lowell public high schools; in
2011-12, the number of 9th grade students decreased by 255 students to 859. Given this
attrition rate, which hovers around 16%, Middlesex Community College can anticipate
several hundred fewer students each fall from the Lowell district and other feeder schools.
Among three feeder high schools, a greater percentage of Lowell High School seniors plan
to attend a community college, 35.8% (up from 20.2% in 2006-07) compared to Dracut
High School, 23.7% or Chelmsford High School, 10.3%.
The percentage of Middlesex County students attending Middlesex Community College has
declined from 45.6% in fall 2006 to 42.2% in Fall 2012. The percentage of Middlesex
County students attending Bunker Hill Community College has increased from 22.4% in fall
2006 to 27.7% in Fall 2012.
CHAPTER I – GEOGRAPHY AND POPULATION ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 6
CHAPTER I – GEOGRAPHY AND POPULATION
CURRENT POPULATION
Middlesex Community College’s two campuses are located in Middlesex County. With a population
of 1,537,215 (US Census Bureau, 2012), Middlesex is the most populous county in Massachusetts.
Lowell, its top feeder town, is the most populous city or town in Middlesex County.
Middlesex County is made up of 54 cities and towns, but enrollment at Middlesex Community
College is not limited to Middlesex County. In Middlesex County, seven of the towns–Lowell,
Waltham, Billerica, Woburn, Chelmsford, Dracut and Tewksbury–make the top ten lists of feeder
towns for Middlesex Community College. Lawrence and Methuen are on the list of top ten feeder
towns; however, Lawrence and Methuen are in Essex County. Populations for these cities and towns
in Middlesex County are represented in Table 1.
Table 1. Middlesex County Towns and Cities by Population, 2012
CHAPTER III – THE PUBLIC SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 44
As Middlesex County covers a large geographic area and is the largest county in the state, many
students from Middlesex County choose to attend other community colleges that may be closer to
their homes. Bunker Hill Community College and Mass Bay Community College, for example, are in
close proximity to a number of Middlesex County towns that are not considered to be top feeder
areas for Middlesex Community College. Although the majority of students who attend Middlesex
Community College are from Middlesex County, the percentage of Middlesex County community
college students has declined from 45.6% in Fall 2006 to 42.2% in Fall 2012. The percentage of
Middlesex County community college students attending Bunker Hill Community College has
increased from 22.4% in Fall 2006 to 27.7% in Fall 2012. This percentage does not account for the
large increase in enrollment over the past ten years at Bunker Hill. Equally important, Mass Bay
Community College only experienced slight growth since 2006 while the percentage of Middlesex
County community college-going students declined from 16.5% to 14.7%, during this same time
period. The percentage of community college students from Middlesex County attending North
Shore declined from 6% in Fall 2006 to 5% in Fall 2012.
Table 25. Middlesex County Students in Massachusetts Community Colleges
Fall-2006 Fall-2008 Fall-2010 Fall-2012
Berkshire 5 0% 4 0% 3 0% 2 0%
Bristol 5 0% 16 0% 19 0% 20 0%
Bunker Hill 3,316 22% 3,885 24% 4,833 26% 5,111 28%
Cape Cod 18 0% 14 0% 15 0% 9 0%
Greenfield 3 0% 10 0% 17 0% 12 0%
Holyoke 18 0% 13 0% 12 0% 14 0%
Mass Bay 2,455 17% 2,511 16% 2,792 15% 2,719 15%
Massasoit 47 0% 45 0% 38 0% 51 0%
Middlesex 6,766 46% 7,009 44% 7,997 43% 7,788 42%
Mt. Wachusett 388 3% 458 3% 539 3% 497 3%
North Shore 854 6% 905 6% 985 5% 986 5%
North Essex 405 3% 426 3% 453 2% 430 2%
Quinsigamond 288 2% 398 2% 553 3% 506 3%
Roxbury 259 2% 245 2% 275 1% 289 2%
Springfield Tech 9 0% 5 0% 3 0% 6 0%
Total 14,836 100% 15,944 100% 18,534 100% 18,440 100%
CHAPTER III – THE PUBLIC SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 45
Figure 16. Massachusetts Community College Enrollments from Middlesex County
0%
25%
50%
Fall-2006 Fall-2008 Fall-2010 Fall-2012
Bunker Hill
Mass Bay
Middlesex
Mt. Wachusett
North Shore
Quinsigamond
CHAPTER III – THE PUBLIC SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 46
UNIVERSITY OF MASSACHUSETTS LOWELL-HEIRS II DATA
The University of Massachusetts Lowell has grown by 31% from 9,706 undergraduates in Fall 2004
to 12,734 undergraduates in Fall 2013, see Figure 17 and Figure 18. The growth of this institution
provides a number of opportunities for collaboration for both students and staff. The number of
students attending UMASS Lowell from the city of Lowell and from other top MCC feeder towns
has increased along with the university’s overall enrollment. In Fall 2013, 283 students from the city
of Lowell enrolled at the university for the first time. This number includes transfer students who
attended another institution prior to enrolling in UMASS Lowell.
Figure 17. Undergraduate Enrollment University of Massachusetts Lowell
9,706
12,734
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
Fall 2008 Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013
CHAPTER III – THE PUBLIC SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 47
Figure 18. Feeder Towns of Undergraduate Enrollment University of Massachusetts Lowell
Town Census 2010 Projection 2015 Projection 2020N Change
2010-2020
% Change
2010-2020
Lowell 10,071 10,772 8,336 -1,735 -17%
Billerica 2,236 2,475 2,236 0 0%
Dracut 1,677 1,827 1,634 -43 -3%
Lawrence (Essex) 6,510 7,470 6,433 -77 -1%
Chelmsford 1,395 1,431 1,310 -85 -6%
Tewksbury 1,396 1,573 1,445 49 4%
Woburn 2,122 2,079 2,064 -58 -3%
Methuen (Essex) 2,748 3,152 2,873 125 5%
Burlington 1,132 1,235 1,145 13 1%
Waltham 7,572 7,815 7,393 -179 -2%
Wilmington 1,082 1,258 1,192 110 10%
Westford 723 882 870 147 20%
Bedford 468 430 394 -74 -16%
Lexington 849 936 1,012 163 19%
Arlington 1,447 1,602 1,822 375 26%
Tyngsborough 647 668 604 -43 -7%
Acton 718 730 629 -89 -12%
Reading 1,053 1,141 1,047 -6 -1%
Pepperell 638 660 567 -71 -11%
Medford 4,664 4,414 4,280 -384 -8%
Stoneham 960 1,000 983 23 2%
Groton 384 493 468 84 22%
Haverhill (Essex) 3,802 3,957 3,296 -506 -13%
Andover (Essex) 1,753 1,792 1,641 -112 -6%
Winchester 581 670 809 228 39%
Concord 543 505 395 -148 -27%
Maynard 407 335 262 -145 -36%
Littleton 290 422 374 84 29%
CHAPTER III – THE PUBLIC SCHOOL ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 48
Table 26. University of Massachusetts Lowell by Top Feeder Towns
52% 51% 52%
41% 42% 41%
34% 35% 34%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Men Women All
2000 2007 2011
CONCLUSION ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 49
CONCLUSION
The purpose of this environmental scan was to identify local and national trends that may have an
impact on Middlesex Community College. The descriptive components of the environmental scan
sought to develop a common institutional understanding of our students and potential students to
support enrollment planning. The predictive components aimed to inspire the development of
creative and timely responses to many of the changes already upon us.
Changing demographics—including the aging of the population, the decline in the number of high
school students, as well as the increasing ethnic and linguistic diversity of our community—present
opportunities for Middlesex Community College to continue to evaluate its programs and services in
the context of community need. Moving forward in the planning process, the involvement of
community members—from businesses, community-based organizations, public schools, and
municipalities—are vital to identifying community needs and how Middlesex Community College
can be proactive in meeting those needs.
In addition to focusing on areas of change, this environmental scan also sought to highlight current
conditions of importance. The unique and significant levels of international immigration in
Middlesex County will continue to place Middlesex Community College as part of the global
community. The historic and current gaps in college enrollment and achievement among male
students may provide both recruitment and programming opportunities in the future as goods-based
manufacturing jobs traditionally pursued by young men continue to decline. These two
demographic circumstances—one based on gender and the other on ethnicity and nationality—will
be part of the reality the College considers as it begins the strategic planning process.
Both local and national economics will influence the occupational aspirations of students as well as
the resources available to help them reach their goals. The economic crisis that began in 2007, along
with structural changes to the US economy, challenged occupational expectations. Emerging
positions in the health care and the professional, scientific, and business service industries will
require both formal education and specialized skills. While the occupational scenarios presented in
this environmental scan are optimistic about job growth in the Commonwealth, success is ultimately
supported by access to education and training opportunities that are relevant, high quality, and cost-
effective.
CONCLUSION ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 50
Ultimately, an environmental scan cannot predict the future with absolute certainty. Further, an
environmental scan cannot replace the leadership of decision-makers, or the role of stakeholders in
informing and influencing the leadership. As one tool, an environmental scan can provide some
foundation for conversation and inform some direction for the dialogue as it ensues throughout the
planning process.
APPENDIX ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 51
APPENDIX
Glossary
1. Local Quotient (LQ) is the concept introduced by Robert Murray Haig in 1928. The concept is used to measure the relatively concentration of the local economy and industry. In other words, a LQ measure tells whether and how a local industrial sector is more concentrated than that of a reference area, say state, in term of the percentage of employment in that specific industrial sector. Typical formula to calculate LQ is:
𝐿𝑄 =𝑒 /𝑒
𝐸 /𝐸
where 𝑒 = 𝐿𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝑖
𝑒 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝐸 = 𝑅𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑦 𝑖
𝐸 = 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
However, the measure is relative. That is to say, although LQ > 1 is considered a local industrial sector is more concentrated, it does not mean that the industrial sector would be a big employer locally. The absolute value of the percentage of employment within the local economy, as well as its change, tells whether a specific industrial sector is a driving force and the symbol of an emerging economy.
2. Dependency Ratio: In economics, geography and demography, the dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically not in the labor force (the dependent part) and those typically in the labor force (the productive part). The dependent part usually refers the population with either age between 0-14 or age 65+, while the productive part refers to those who are usually called “in Labor Force” or with age between 15 and 64. Dependency ratio can be decomposed into three different measures, namely Total Dependency Ratio, Child Dependency Ratio, and Aged Dependency Ratio. And these measures can be expressed as:
Note that the measures are often expressed by percentage.
At the first glance, the interpretation of these measures is intuitive. For instance, if Total Dependency Ratio is, say one, which means on average, one child or aged person will be dependent on one person in labor force. Clearly, the higher the ratio value is, the heavier the burden is.
Dependency ratio varies across city/county/region/country over time. It has important social-economic and political implications. In general, if the value of the aged dependency ratio increases, it may indicate that financial expenditures on things like social security will increase too. If the value
APPENDIX ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 52
of the child dependency ratio increases, it may imply that there will be more needs for educational resources.
3. Participation Rate: a measure of the active portion of an economy's labor force. The participation rate refers to the number of people who are either employed or are actively looking for work. The number of people who are no longer actively searching for work would not be included in the participation rate. During an economic recession, many workers often get discouraged and stop looking for employment, as a result, the participation rate decreases. Since the nominator of the unemployment rate only account for the unemployed who claimed unemployment benefits, and thus not a full picture of unemployment in total, the participation rate is a good indicator that, when combined with the unemployment rate, reinforce the seriousness of unemployment.
4. The tertiary sector of the economy: the tertiary sector of the economy is often known as service sector or the service industry. Economists often use the categorization of the three economic sectors, i.e. the primary sector, mainly referring to agriculture, fishing, and extraction such as mining; the secondary sector, approximately the same as manufacturing, and the tertiary sector or service industry. Even with the United States' Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) or the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS), it is difficult to define whether a business is a service or not, although whether the products of a business is tangible or intangible is considered as a well-accepted criteria. As its face value implies, service industry involves an extensive range of occupation/employment, as well as a broad array of educational needs. Some, such as doctor or accountant, need the degree-oriented training and education. Others may just need a skill-focused training, such as plumber, bank teller.
REFERENCES ENVIRONMENTAL SCAN 2014
MIDDLESEX COMMUNITY COLLEGE 53
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